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Iranian Alert - December 7, 2005 - U.S. Army report: Israel can't stop Iran nukes
Regime Change Iran ^ | 12.7.2005 | DoctorZin

Posted on 12/06/2005 7:37:24 PM PST by DoctorZIn

Top News Story

U.S. Army report: Israel can't stop Iran nukes

The World Tribune:
Geopolitical limitations render Israel's air force militarily incapable of halting Iran's nuclear weapons program according to a new report published the by U.S. Army War College.

The report asserts Israel lacks the military capability to locate and destroy Iranian nuclear assets. The report said the Israel Air Force cannot operate at such long distances from its bases.

"The Israeli Air Force has formidable capabilities and enjoys unchallenged supremacy vis-a-vis the other Middle East air powers, but Israel has no aircraft carriers and it cannot use airbases in other Middle East states," the report entitled "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran," said. "Therefore its operational capabilities are reduced when the targets are located far from its territory."

[On Sunday, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz warned that diplomatic pressure would not stop Iran's nuclear weapons program, Middle East Newsline reported. Halutz was one of three senior Israeli officials who warned that Iran would soon be able to turn into a nuclear power.]

In an article authored by Shlomo Brom, former head of air force strategic planning, the report said Israel's deep-strike air capability was based on the F-15I and F-16C/D aircraft. At a range of more than 600 kilometers, Brom said, Israel could not sustain an air campaign. Iran is about 1,000 kilometers from Israel.

"It is possible to determine that at long ranges - more then 600 kilometers - the IAF is capable of a few surgical strikes, but it is not capable of a sustained air campaign against a full array of targets," the report said.

An Israeli air attack on Iran must also include such support aircraft as air refueling, electronic countermeasures, support, communication, and rescue, the report said. The mission would also require precision intelligence.

Brom said Israel's intelligence and military community was divided over the Iranian threat. He said military intelligence regards Iran as determined to destroy Israel. The Mossad and National Security Council see Teheran as preoccupied with national defense and regime survival.

"While the first school assumes no political pressure can force Iran to stop its military nuclear program, the other school believes that political pressure can be effective in at least delaying the nuclear program significantly," the report said. "The second school believes that a nuclear Iran with a different regime will not pose a high risk to Israel and can be easily deterred."

The report said the Bushehr nuclear power plant was vulnerable to attacks but does not constitute a key element of the military nuclear program. As a result, the destruction of Bushehr would not have a significant effect on Iran's military program.

Brom said Iranian nuclear assets are located between 1,500 and 1,700 kilometers from Israel. The report expressed doubts whether such Israeli allies as India and Turkey would allow Israel to launch a military strike from their territory.

"This means that the Israeli attack aircraft would have to take off from air bases in Israel, fly 1,500-1,700 kilometers to the targets, destroy them, and then fly back 1,500-1,700 kilometers," the report said.

The Israel Air Force has 25 F-15I and 137 F-16C/D fighter-bombers. The air force has already received more than 20 F-16Is, with longer range on the F-15I, but the report said the F-15I aircraft contains greater capabilities at long ranges.

The report said the F-15I has an operational radius of 1,270 kilometers. The F-16I has an operational radius of 2,100 kilometers while that of the F-16C/D is 925 kilometers.

But the report said the real operational radius was shorter because the planes would have to fly at low altitude to avoid radar detection. Brom said the Israeli aircraft could avoid Iranian air defense but would be detected.

"In any case, any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear target would be a very complex operation in which a relatively large number of attack aircraft and support aircraft {interceptors, ECM [electronic counter-measures] aircraft, refuelers, and rescue aircraft} would participate," the report said. "The conclusion is that Israel could attack only a few Iranian targets and not as part of a sustainable operation over time, but as a one time surprise operation."

  • Iran Focus reported that Iranian students from Tehran’s University of Science and Technology plan to hold a demonstration against a ban on a demonstration.
  • YNet reported that Iran warned Israel: if it makes a 'mistake' we’ll respond harshly.
  • National Review Online published a message from Iran's underground. A conversation with Amir Abbas Fakhravar, hunted by the regime.
  • US News & World Report reported that the US and the EU3 are making progress on galvanizing international opposition to Tehran's moves.
  • Middle East Newsline reported that Ahmadinejad has ordered another purge of Iran's security agencies, military, police and other government departments.
  • VOA News reported that U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns says the government of Iran is pursuing radical policies that are leading that country into further international isolation.
  • Reuters reported that French FM Douste-Blazy said: Iran "Unilaterally" rejects nuclear deal.
  • Dow Jones Newswires reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Monday urged Iran to cooperate with the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog to end the crisis over its nuclear program.
  • Yahoo News reported that Israeli Netanyahu hinted that he could consider a pre-emptive air strike against Iran's nuclear installations.
  • The Financial Times reported on the mixed messages that Tehran is sending regarding talks with the US on Iraq.
  • The Independent UK reported that the IAEA Chief urged the West and Iran to cool its Nuclear brinkmanship.
  • Arash Motamed, Rooz Online reported on the three hidden personalities directing events in Iran.
  • Iran Press News published a letter from imprisoned political activist, Arjang Davoodi, currently held in the medieval prison of Bandar Abbass.
  • And finally, WeblogAwards.org's Weblog Awards Voting has begun. We have been nominated as a finalist for the Best Middle East blog. They are encouraging people to vote only once a day from now until December 15th. A strong finish will help spread the word about the need for international support of real democracy in Iran. Vote here.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: ahmadinejad; alqaedaandiran; american4afreeiran; americans2afreeiran; atomic; axisofevil; axisofweasels; ayatollah; azadi; binladen; deadmullahsstink; democracy; dissidents; freedom; freeirannow; ganji; georgefreeirannow; guardiancouncil; humanrights; iaea; insurgency; iran; iranazadi; iranianalert; iranianregime; iranmustbefreed; irannukes; iranpolicy; irgc; iri; irony; islam; islamic; islamicfanatics; islamicrepublic; khamenei; khomeini; khomeinism; ledeen; loveiranhatemullahs; madmullahs; mullahs; mullahsmustdie; muslims; nuclear; nukes; persecution; persia; persian; persians; politicalprisoners; protest; protests; regime; regimechangeiran; revolutionaryguard; shiite; smccdi; studentmovement; studentprotest; tehran; terror; terrorists; theocracy; usa; usa4afreeiran; vevak; victorystrategy; wot

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin

1 posted on 12/06/2005 7:37:32 PM PST by DoctorZIn
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To: Pan_Yans Wife; fat city; freedom44; Tamsey; Grampa Dave; PhiKapMom; McGavin999; Hinoki Cypress; ...
Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

2 posted on 12/06/2005 7:39:09 PM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Hmmmmm.....


3 posted on 12/06/2005 7:43:35 PM PST by Just A Nobody (I - LOVE - my attitude problem! WBB lives on. Beware the Enemedia.)
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To: DoctorZIn

hope they're wrong, or that this is disinfo.


4 posted on 12/06/2005 7:49:52 PM PST by adam_az (It's the border, stupid!)
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To: DoctorZIn
A sure way to get proved wrong is to tell the Israelis that it can't be done and they can't do it.
5 posted on 12/06/2005 7:50:13 PM PST by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country. What else needs to be said?)
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To: DoctorZIn; Light Speed; dennisw; nuconvert; devolve; potlatch; ntnychik; Grampa Dave; ...
On Sunday, October 31, 2004, virtually on the eve of the U.S. presidential election, the Majlis, Iran's Parliament, met in Tehran. The 247 lawmakers present of the 290 total considered an inflammatory resolution. The bill before the Majlis would require the government to enrich uranium. The session was carried live on national radio. As the assembly voted unanimously to enrich uranium, the members of parliament took up an eerie chant: "Death to America! . . .Death to Israel!"

The B-2 Spirit stealth bomber is able to penetrate heavily defended airspace, especially at night. The B-2 also carries an impressive weapons load – it was recently re-equipped with a modified weapons rack that simultaneously dropped 80 JDAM GPS-guided weapons from a single B-2. The B-2 flew 43 combat missions in Operation Iraqi Freedom, employing more than 400 precision weapons throughout in the air campaign. Since then, the aircraft has been used to test new munitions to further enhance its conventional attack capability, including JASSM stealth cruise missiles, which allows the aircraft to strike targets from a greater distance; The EGBU-28, which combines both global positioning system and laser guidance for increased operational flexibility (all weather) and adaptation of the 500 pound JDAM. The B-2 previously used this system only to guide 2,000-pound bombs. The smaller warhead enables the B-2 to increase the potential number of JDAMs carried per flight from 16 to as many as 80.

6 posted on 12/06/2005 8:01:20 PM PST by PhilDragoo (Hitlery: das Butch von Buchenvald)
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To: DoctorZIn
The annual weblog awards have begun and we have been nominated as a finalist for the Best Middle East blog.

They are encouraging people to vote only once a day from now until December 15th. A strong finish will help spread the word about the need for international support of real democracy in Iran.

Where to vote? Click on the banner below.

Vote now and vote daily.


7 posted on 12/06/2005 8:01:56 PM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: SandRat

the writer is very funny

"It is possible to determine that at long ranges - more then 600 kilometers - the IAF is capable of a few surgical strikes, but it is not capable of a sustained air campaign against a full array of targets,"

when Iran is contemplating nuking israel, which is hardly surgical, why would israel want to target surgically?

fair is fair and we are talking struggling for survival.

and its not just israel that needs to worry. all of western europe needs to share the concern.

imo


8 posted on 12/06/2005 8:15:41 PM PST by jackson29
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To: jackson29
when Iran is contemplating nuking israel, which is hardly surgical, why would israel want to target surgically?

Anyone recall the "Samson Option"???

9 posted on 12/06/2005 8:18:42 PM PST by ExSES (the "bottom-line")
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To: PhilDragoo

This is very scary stuff. I read the article the other day about only having 4 months to 'do' something. Maybe this is why some people don't like to read the news...


10 posted on 12/06/2005 8:21:03 PM PST by potlatch (Does a clean house indicate that there is a broken computer in it?)
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To: PhilDragoo
If your Israel....you want to destroy Irans missile launch,storage and assembly.
Time it right and you end Irans gambit even if they have a few nukes.
It works politically....as you defend your position by showing you removed their offensive capability.
so ya...You leave the nuclear facilities in place....and the world has a difficult time condemming your action.
By leaving the nuclear facilities alone...Israel minimizes killing Russians.
They will however kill lots of Russians and Chi coms when they go for the missiles.
The 2 above are going to be rather silent about that in public forum : )

It is a nuclear shell game to be sure.
Iran sets up point defence under the guidance of Russia and Israel...or the U.S. has to figure out what is where.
so ya....the goodies could be in a facility with no point defence at all.
The gambit is that you will not notice or have intel.

Israel and U.S. have the prowess here to know what is where.

You only have to blow a corridor thru to defeat point defence.
a point defence system has millisecs for its circuit protection system to react to EMP and other RF attack.
then there is turn around time on firing banks.

a sustained corridor attack or multi directional attack will beat it.

Iran is just barely financing this gambit.
Their nation is in some serious fiscal trouble.
a failure to keep their missiles could be the final straw which pulls the entire ride down on Mullahs heads.
Iran would need time and money to get back to where they were before they got hammerd.

Israel can achieve this...and can destroy Irans nuclear facilities if they want.
their is reprocussions either way.
The U.S. has to decide wether its in their interest to let Israel do this....or make pledge to do it themselves.
or formally issue in the U.N. that any tactical attack on Israel will be answered by the U.S. military with zenith power.

Iran will lose this gambit.
and....Russia may even be the greater loser.

11 posted on 12/06/2005 8:31:19 PM PST by Light Speed
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To: Light Speed

My above post 11 is to Phil and All : )


12 posted on 12/06/2005 8:37:11 PM PST by Light Speed
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To: Light Speed
"They will however kill lots of Russians and Chi coms when they go for the missiles."

& North Koreans, Pakistanis, etc.
13 posted on 12/06/2005 9:21:48 PM PST by JSteff
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To: DoctorZIn
America does not have the will and Israel does not have the way. Nuclear war is now inevitable, as Iran has made it very clear that they are going to start one with America, Israel and Europe.

Oh well, we knew we could not keep the nuclear genie in the bottle forever. Russia and China got rich letting it out quicker. The socialist's and communists do not care about human life, they figure they can drill through glass. Since this will badly harm free trade society's at the same time it is a win win scenario for them to pour gasoline on the Mullah's fire.I give us a year before complete economic collapse of the world economy, and a bit more for the war from Russia and China to take place. How incredibly Biblical this all is.
14 posted on 12/06/2005 10:17:58 PM PST by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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To: Light Speed
Here is the B-2 Spirit launching a JASSM (Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missile). The latter has a public range of 200 nautical miles. It was successfully reprogrammed in flight from its mother B-1 in a test last year and that capability is now operational. It can be carried and launched from B-1, B-2, F-15, F-16, and F-18.

JASSM a 2,000-lb class airborne weapon developed by Lockheed Martin, features a stealthy composite airframe that makes it extremely difficult for enemy defenses to successfully combat. Ninety-five percent of the fuselage surface area and load bearing structure is manufactured using braided carbon fiber preforms supplied by Fiber Innovations Inc.

Is the machine braiding this body-snatcher not delicious.

Note to Mamoud Ahmadinejani: what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive. Burma Shave, Dude.

15 posted on 12/06/2005 11:19:08 PM PST by PhilDragoo (Hitlery: das Butch von Buchenvald)
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To: DoctorZIn

You don't need sustained attacks against a target after you hit it with NUKES.


16 posted on 12/06/2005 11:21:07 PM PST by TomasUSMC (FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM.)
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To: DoctorZIn
Good morning. Got your FReepmail, and voted (158). Good luck.

5.56mm

17 posted on 12/07/2005 5:00:52 AM PST by M Kehoe
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To: DoctorZIn

These guys couldn't monitor and reveal the Russian WMD transports leaving Iraq in the run-up to the war, and people are supposed to think they know more about Israel's capabilities than the Israelis??


18 posted on 12/07/2005 5:13:15 AM PST by Wuli
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To: PhilDragoo
Zoastrians like Fire.....so lets give them some.....B-2 Spirit of the Season : )

The Supreme Being says Go!.......and be sure to use Multi Pass.


19 posted on 12/07/2005 3:30:22 PM PST by Light Speed
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To: DoctorZIn
To read today’s thread click here.

Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

20 posted on 12/07/2005 11:31:20 PM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: Light Speed; F14 Pilot

This being will figure prominently in our attack for Khatami has warned the uncovered hair of women has the power to drive men mad.


21 posted on 12/08/2005 1:04:19 AM PST by PhilDragoo (Hitlery: das Butch von Buchenvald)
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To: Light Speed

Oh, so it's Iranian Zoroastrians we're after now? That's a truly bizarre remark, seeing as they've been repressed by the Mullahs since '79 for the crime of not being Muslim.


22 posted on 12/08/2005 1:29:00 AM PST by fragrant abuse
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