Posted on 12/10/2005 6:48:44 PM PST by rhainw
Voted. Thanks.
Very true, but the 19 terrorists were not state actors with a power base to maintain and a country to run. Countries don't knowingly commit suicide in the same way that terrorists do.
LOL.
All the middle eastern countries, other than Israel, all come form the lineage of Ishmael, and thus they are all related. Arab was just a generic term. Picky, picky, picky.
There are two ways for Iran to "save face":
1) Demand that Israel give up its nuclear weapons and engage the U.N. in a drawn out campaign to pressure Israel into doing so while they continue to enrich uranium.
2) Drag all of its choice components into the open and dare Israel to do something about it. This will take away any justification for using tactical nuclear weapons to destroy their program. It will also be an act of war which will allow Iran (and Syria) to retaliate in kind without being labeled as "aggressors". The question on everyone's mind will be, "does Iran still have a nuclear weapon somewhere?" and what will happen to all that oil if a nuclear exchange occurs?
The way I see it, Israel may have room for a conventional strike, with a hair-trigger on the nuclear option if it's not successful and Iran moves to retaliate with a nuclear weapon. I don't believe Iran will pre-emptively strike with a nuclear weapon. Not in a million years. But if Israel pre-emptively tries to destroy their facilities... well, all I can say is, they'd better finish the job.
I put this story in the same classification as the one below.
A Bush pre-election strike on Iran 'imminent'
www.lebanwire.com ^ | October 20, 2004 | Wayne Madsen
White House insider report "October Surprise" imminent
According to White House and Washington Beltway insiders, the Bush administration, worried that it could lose the presidential election to Senator John F. Kerry, has initiated plans to launch a military strike on Iran's top Islamic leadership, its nuclear reactor at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf, and key nuclear targets throughout the country, including the main underground research site at Natanz in central Iran and another in Isfahan.
Targets of the planned U.S. attack reportedly include mosques in Tehran, Qom, and Isfahan known by the U.S. to headquarter Iran's top mullahs.
The Iran attack plan was reportedly drawn up after internal polling indicated that if the Bush administration launched a so-called anti-terrorist attack on Iran some two weeks before the election, Bush would be assured of a landslide win against Kerry. Reports of a pre-emptive strike on Iran come amid concerns by a number of political observers that the Bush administration would concoct an "October Surprise" to influence the outcome of the presidential election.
Yes they know it, and most of them are not suicidal. You know many in the region would really rather Iran and the extremist groups just be quiet before they provoke an attack someday that results in mass casualties.
There is no doubt in my mind that if Israel gets any first strike, retalliation will be harsh, and you have to know the Arabs know this as well.
1) Demand that Israel give up its nuclear weapons and engage the U.N. in a drawn out campaign to pressure Israel into doing so while they continue to enrich uranium.
2) Drag all of its choice components into the open and dare Israel to do something about it. This will take away any justification for using tactical nuclear weapons to destroy their program. It will also be an act of war which will allow Iran (and Syria) to retaliate in kind without being labeled as "aggressors". The question on everyone's mind will be, "does Iran still have a nuclear weapon somewhere?" and what will happen to all that oil if a nuclear exchange occurs?
The way I see it, Israel may have room for a conventional strike, with a hair-trigger on the nuclear option if it's not successful and Iran moves to retaliate with a nuclear weapon. I don't believe Iran will pre-emptively strike with a nuclear weapon. Not in a million years. But if Israel pre-emptively tries to destroy their facilities... well, all I can say is, they'd better finish the job.
You have it about right - I think Iran will bide for option #1 - While knowing there is no good "military" option for Israel in the mean time - A preemptive nuclear strike by Israel I just don't see happening - The ramifications for Israel would probably result in its own destruction.
This is a much uglier / complicated situation then many seem to rationalize. The fact that there is no real good "military" option greatly heightens the complexities and seriousness of any actions actually taken.
Thanks. The problem I have with your premise, is that Iran is actively seeking nukes and we'll have hell to pay if it does get them. I do beleive something has to give on this shortly.
I do understand your hesitation to believe much of what you see in print these days.
The big factor when Iran gets nukes is what type of person is in charge of the country.
If it is a Muslim who believes in Allah, and follows the Koran to the letter, the bombs will be dropped on Israel regardless of the consequences.
On the other hand, if the leader of Iran is like the present King Abdullah of Jordan, a heretic and an infidel collaborator, the bombs won't be used. - Tom
"Countries don't knowingly commit suicide in the same way that terrorists do."
Your point is taken, but we don't know that for a country driven by religious fanatics who see death as a reward. Only in the most recent times have countries actually faced total annhilation as a possible outcome of total war. We, as a species are still learning. I would not be too quick to assume that MAD would deter the Iranians in charge -- as opposed to the Iranians as a people.
Neither of us knows for certain, but I'm not ready to exclude such an action on their part as impossible, just improbable.
Well said. No, we can't be sure. We musn't assume either that the operational link between Iran's nuclear weapons and the political leadership is all that firm either, just because it is here.
"We're already fighting WWIV."
Absolutely true. Just like the ones in the past, we have no choice BUT to fight and win this war. Our children and their children's safety is more at stake now then ever. May God bless America all the way through.
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