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US Intelligence Expert: Regime-Change the Answer in Iran
Iran va Jahan ^ | December 13, 2005

Posted on 12/15/2005 2:48:58 AM PST by F14 Pilot

Former justice department prosecutor and intelligence expert John Loftus says that Israel is unable to thwart Iran's nuclear projects through military action – but that there is an alternative.

"Israel only has a few option and striking back is not one of 'em," Loftus told Israel National Radio's Tovia Singer. "The F-16-IL version that Israel possesses only has a combat radius of about 2,200 kilometers and you would need about 3,000 to hit the hard targets in Iran. Iran saw what [Israel] did to the Osarik reactor in Iraq and have spread their nuclear development stuff all over the country and a lot of the stuff is in the northeast corner of the country – completely out of Israel's flight range. So, unless Iraq votes to allow Israel over flight rights to attack Iran – which isn't going to happen - then Israel simply doesn't have the fuel to fly around Saudi Arabia to come up the Straits of Hormuz and attack Iran. There is simply not a military option available to Israel."

Loftus stressed, however, that there are other options that are likely to succeed and are already being put into effect. "The Bush administration is hoping that, ironically with [French [President] Jacques] Chirac's help, UN pressure will cause a regime-change in Syria. That the [UN's] Mehlis investigation [examining the Syrian governments connection to the assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri] is going to come down hard and heavy. The US military is chomping at the bit to go across the border and take out the terror bases in Syria that Assad claims are not there. Once Syria is gone, Iran is isolated, with US troops on both their borders, in Afghanistan and in Iraq."

The intelligence expert, with contacts in the Pentagon says that the strategy is not for the US to actually invade Iran, but to affect a regime-change. "One of the intelligence agencies, which shall remain nameless, asked me to hold a conference of dissident groups in Iran. We are holding that conference and getting ready for regime-change."

Singer asked Loftus why US fighter jets do not bomb Iranian nuclear targets on their own from aircraft carriers in the region.

"That's a real good question that has been carefully studied," Loftus answered. "There are over 360 separate targets inside Iran that have been identified. Most of them are non-vulnerable – many underneath residential neighborhoods and Islamic shrines. These are not places we can bomb. The Iranians were paying attention when Iraq's reactor was bombed and have learned the lessons."

"So what is to be done to bring about a regime-change?" singer asked.

"The aircraft carriers are there to defend the picket-line of ships that will place a blockade on the Straits of Hormuz," Loftus said. "Ninety percent of Iran's economy is based on oil exports – so a blockade of as little as three weeks can cause their economy to collapse, the people to rise up and the mullahs to be overthrown. The problem with this is that Iran knows that this is the most likely scenario and they have been preparing for three years to thwart it. They [Iran] have developed vessels whose job is to sink as many oil tankers as possible to block the Straits of Hormuz. Once two, three or four vessels are sunk, you have cut off 40% of the world's oil supply. So the US doesn't mind – we have a six-month stockpile of oil - but the EU is much more fragile and susceptible to oil shocks. So we might have to dump a large share of the US stockpile on the world market until the regime falls."

Asked whether he really thinks the government will topple so easily, Loftus responded, "It is hard to do polling in Iran – you have to do it by telephone and you therefore only end up talking to the urban population. But we found that 83% of the Iranian urban population hates the mullahs and don't want to grow up under a dictatorship. Most of the country is young and wants music videos and TV and not the mullahs."


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; Israel; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: ahmadinejad; bush; democracy; freedom; freeiran; intel; iran; islamic; israel; loftus; media; mideast; mullahs; persiangulf; regimechange; students; suicidebomb; syria; terror; terrorism; un; us

1 posted on 12/15/2005 2:49:00 AM PST by F14 Pilot
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To: F14 Pilot

ticking. . one, two, three


2 posted on 12/15/2005 2:51:12 AM PST by i_dont_chat (Houston, TX)
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To: F14 Pilot

The clock is ticking.


3 posted on 12/15/2005 2:53:12 AM PST by expatguy (http://laotze.blogspot.com/)
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To: i_dont_chat

The drums of war have started..


4 posted on 12/15/2005 2:53:18 AM PST by Liberfighter (A half truth is a whole lie)
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To: F14 Pilot

Loftus is an idiot.

By the same argument, we didn't need to invade Germany. All we had to do was precipitate "regime change."

Both arguments are accurate, but the problem is implementing the strategy.


5 posted on 12/15/2005 2:58:09 AM PST by Restorer (Islamists want to die. We want to kill them.)
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To: F14 Pilot
"...many underneath residential neighborhoods and Islamic shrines. These are not places we can bomb...[sic]"

Politically correct insanity.

We CAN bomb these places if they are being used to hide or conceal military targets.

The resolve to defend ourselves is what we seem to be lacking.

-

"But we found that 83% of the Iranian urban population hates the mullahs and don't want to grow up under a dictatorship. Most of the country is young and wants music videos and TV and not the mullahs.""

Not to be confused with "We are willing to die for our freedom"

6 posted on 12/15/2005 3:00:44 AM PST by expatguy (http://laotze.blogspot.com/)
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To: F14 Pilot
"There are over 360 separate targets inside Iran that have been identified. Most of them are non-vulnerable – many underneath residential neighborhoods and Islamic shrines. These are not places we can bomb. The Iranians were paying attention when Iraq's reactor was bombed and have learned the lessons."

I do not care about Islamic shrines, but simple well buildt bunkers will be a severe problem to any air strike. Also the decentral targets will make everything extremely difficult.

This guy is right. The best alternative would be a blow from inside. We should help the Iranians in Iran to kill their theocracy and their contemporary gouvernment by themselves.

7 posted on 12/15/2005 3:00:48 AM PST by Atlantic Bridge (O tempora! O mores!)
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To: F14 Pilot

$500 per barrel=$20 per gallon


8 posted on 12/15/2005 3:01:17 AM PST by CheezyChesster (Ouch..........)
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To: F14 Pilot
The Bush administration is hoping that, ironically with [French [President] Jacques] Chirac's help, UN pressure will cause a regime-change in Syria. That the [UN's] Mehlis investigation [examining the Syrian governments connection to the assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri] is going to come down hard and heavy.

Oh, yeah, let's hope that the UN does something.
Since they have such a good track record...

9 posted on 12/15/2005 3:05:21 AM PST by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: F14 Pilot
combat radius of about 2,200 kilometers and you would need about 3,000 to hit the hard targets in Iran...

What if you add one of these?

10 posted on 12/15/2005 3:05:58 AM PST by Samurai_Jack (ride out and confront the evil!)
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To: Restorer
By the same argument, we didn't need to invade Germany. All we had to do was precipitate "regime change."

This is the point. To move something there you would need "boots on the ground". Bombing will not solve the problem. The question is if your gouvernment has the will to do such an invasion since they are the only nation that would have the resources to do this. Israel itselves is far too weak and too small to invade a country like Iran over such a long distance.

11 posted on 12/15/2005 3:06:45 AM PST by Atlantic Bridge (O tempora! O mores!)
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To: F14 Pilot
"Former justice department prosecutor and intelligence expert John Loftus..."

Intelligence Expert apologizes.

John Loftus on "How the Bush family made its fortune from the Nazis"

12 posted on 12/15/2005 3:07:40 AM PST by expatguy (http://laotze.blogspot.com/)
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To: Restorer
re :By the same argument, we didn't need to invade Germany. All we had to do was precipitate "regime change." .

And there were many attempts to do this, the reason we had to invade in the end was because there was no viable alternative to the Nazis we could deal with.

By 1942 we had stopped trying to enable regime change through the German Office corp, each attempt had ended in disaster

13 posted on 12/15/2005 3:09:01 AM PST by tonycavanagh
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To: F14 Pilot
From this article:
intelligence expert John Loftus says that Israel is unable to thwart Iran's nuclear projects through military action

It would seem that Israel has a different opinion...

From another article:
Thank God, Israel has the means at its disposal to bring about the downfall of this extremist regime in Iran. There will be no second 'final solution'," Sharon's spokesman Raanan Gissin said.

14 posted on 12/15/2005 3:09:28 AM PST by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: F14 Pilot

They be a whoooole lota wishful thinkin' goin' on heuh.


15 posted on 12/15/2005 3:20:43 AM PST by libertylover (Abortion is a crime against humanity.)
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To: F14 Pilot

Israel doesnt understand the word "cant." Not too smart to underestimate their ability to strike any time and any place.


16 posted on 12/15/2005 3:29:07 AM PST by armydawg1 (" America must win this war..." PVT Martin Treptow, KIA, WW1)
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To: F14 Pilot
Singer asked Loftus why US fighter jets do not bomb Iranian nuclear targets on their own from aircraft carriers in the region.

"That's a real good question that has been carefully studied," Loftus answered. "There are over 360 separate targets inside Iran that have been identified. Most of them are non-vulnerable – many underneath residential neighborhoods and Islamic shrines. These are not places we can bomb...


Deliberately placing such facilities in residential areas or near religious site does not exempt them from attack.

If the United Staes ultimately decides to do the deed, the target's location is not going to be a problem except for the Iranians who will be trying to figure out how to get the He*l away from these areas.
17 posted on 12/15/2005 3:44:14 AM PST by Captain Rhino (If you will just abandon logic, these things will make a lot more sense!)
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To: Captain Rhino
If the United States ultimately decides to do the deed, the target's location is not going to be a problem except for the Iranians who will be trying to figure out how to get the He*l away from these areas.

This means we'll need to telegraph our intentions to avoid a massive death toll. Let's hope we don't play our hand too soon and give the Mullahs a chance to respond.
18 posted on 12/15/2005 4:21:47 AM PST by wolfcreek
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To: F14 Pilot

He's got the main idea right.(the rest is crap) We need to "affect a regime-change".


19 posted on 12/15/2005 4:26:11 AM PST by nuconvert (No More Axis of Evil by Christmas ! TLR) [there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: F14 Pilot
"Ninety percent of Iran's economy is based on oil exports – so a blockade of as little as three weeks can cause their economy to collapse, the people to rise up and the mullahs to be overthrown.

Iraq's economy under Saddam was almost entirely based on oil exports. They were cut off for more than 10 years, the economy collapsed, and Saddam remained in power. Why should we believe that it would be different in Iran?

Not to mention that the economies of Japan, China, India and Western Europe are all dependent on Iranian oil. What do you expect them to be doing while we're cutting off their oil supply?

20 posted on 12/15/2005 4:27:33 AM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: F14 Pilot
Most of the country is young and wants music videos and TV and not the mullahs."

How pathetic. MTV rules the day.

21 posted on 12/15/2005 4:35:42 AM PST by varon (Allegiance to the constitution, always. Allegiance to a political party, never.)
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To: F14 Pilot

"That's a real good question that has been carefully studied," Loftus answered. "There are over 360 separate targets inside Iran that have been identified. Most of them are non-vulnerable – many underneath residential neighborhoods and Islamic shrines. These are not places we can bomb.

WHY?

Tagline...


22 posted on 12/15/2005 4:38:01 AM PST by TomasUSMC (FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM.)
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To: expatguy

Not to be confused with "We are willing to die for our freedom"



X ACT LEEEEE!!!!

Lets see....83 vs 17 or 42 vs 9 or 21 vs 5 whats stopping all those Iranians?


23 posted on 12/15/2005 4:42:45 AM PST by TomasUSMC (FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM.)
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To: F14 Pilot

If the choice is bombing Iranian religious shrines and civilian neighborhoods underneath which they are building nucelar weapons to destroy NYC, or letting them build nukes, the only option is #1.

It would be criminal to allow them to have nukes.


24 posted on 12/15/2005 4:50:03 AM PST by tomahawk
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To: Samurai_Jack; F14 Pilot

So, if a country, friendly to Israel, had in its inventory, a soon to be excessed aerial tanker, they might make it available to Israel.

What say, they render the aircraft completely airworthy and make it available for minimum consideration - $1.00.

Then that friendly nation could just play Sgt. Schultz - "I don't know nothing!"

Israel has complete responsibility for its actions. Our diplomats would state that Israel is a sovereign nation, and who are we to interfere with their internal security decisions.


25 posted on 12/15/2005 5:22:13 AM PST by Dustoff45
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To: F14 Pilot

At some point, the so-called 83% of the Iranian street will have to foment a genuine revolution if they don't want bombs raining down on them. They want their MTV but don't seem prepared to give their lives to have the freedoms they supposedly want.

Loftus is right, however, that conventional warfare would be a huge mistake unless there was overwhelming confidence that the entire program could be destroyed. Otherwise, without regime change, they'll end up getting set back a few years and launch as soon as humanly possible against Israel in retaliation.

Iran, on the other hand, IF they want to remain on the map, and save face, will have to drag out all their materiel and give Israel the option of destroying it in front of the world. This would prevent Israel from justifying the use of tactical nuclear weapons, and if they chose to bomb them conventionally, would open the door to retaliation by Iran.

The only way to avoid regime change for Iran is to avoid getting nuked. If they're patient, they could provide a "sitting duck" target for Israel in the short term, let them become the "aggressors" in the eyes of the world, and come back in three years fully nuclear and "justified" in whatever retaliation they prefer...


26 posted on 12/15/2005 5:27:01 AM PST by Rutles4Ever
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To: TomasUSMC

If the regime is placing targets in residential neighborhoods and mosques, it's the duty of the people to overthrow the government for putting them in the line of fire. At some point, if they accept the tyranny of their government, they must also accept the consequences doled out by the rest of the world because of that tyranny.


27 posted on 12/15/2005 5:30:21 AM PST by Rutles4Ever
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To: Atlantic Bridge
"This guy is right. The best alternative would be a blow from inside. We should help the Iranians in Iran to kill their theocracy and their contemporary gouvernment by themselves."

Yes I agree a better outcome than an all out war that is expensive in US lives and money. Not one of those people is worth 100 of our marines or infantry men. Take out their leaders destroy the infrastructure with surgical strikes and leave a young thriving Iran to become a democratic asset to the middle east. Not another post war dust bowl full of hatred and poverty ripe as a recruiting ground for terrorists.

28 posted on 12/15/2005 5:36:48 AM PST by Kelly_2000 ( Because they stand on a wall and say nothing is going to hurt you tonight. Not on my watch)
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To: Rutles4Ever
They don't have any weapons. We could give them some, but are too busy sitting on our backsides, playing footsie with the Europeans, and telling fortunes about upcoming elections domestically. They can't take on tanks with small arms (which they don't have). We easily could take out the heavy armor from the air, but we are too busy coddling our domestic traitors and trying not to offend hysterical painted whores in LA and NYC.
29 posted on 12/15/2005 5:59:43 AM PST by JasonC
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To: F14 Pilot
And if by chance the average Iranian regards an act of war by a Christian country as a reason to pull together behind a radical Islamic government rather than as a reason to allow the US decide what sort of Iranian government is acceptable as a condition of ending such a boycott... our next move then is what, exactly?

And it had better be a good one, considering that we would be in a *very* antagonistic position with Japan – and more to the point, China - over allocating the remaining oil production, would be facing greatly increased chances of Islamic uprisings in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt, would much have pretty much ended the prospects of cooperation with Europe over anything at all, and would quite possibly have crashed the world economy in the bargain...
30 posted on 12/15/2005 7:17:08 AM PST by M. Dodge Thomas
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To: wolfcreek

I assume there are some tiers of target importance within the 360 number. Hit the first tier targets without warning and watch them all scurry around like ants wondering where we will strike next.


31 posted on 12/15/2005 7:58:30 AM PST by Captain Rhino (If you will just abandon logic, these things will make a lot more sense!)
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To: F14 Pilot

Very informative, Yes Once Syria is "liberated" and Iran too, we'll have on happy family of Democracies in the middle east!

I'm for it of course, but Whoa! the sheer immensity of it! Of course the other options are: wait for the nuke to drop from Islam......


32 posted on 12/15/2005 8:05:31 AM PST by AmericanDave (Woe is the Income Tax......)
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To: F14 Pilot
The problem is that fomenting a popular uprising to effect "regime change" is an operation that might take decades, decades we simply do not have. What's more, any efforts we (i.e. the United States Government) might undertake would, if not handled with the utmost secrecy and discretion, would surely "blowback" on us in the sense of reinforcing the Iranian regime's paranoia, uniting even the wayward "yutes" against the US Imperialists, and possibly inviting direct Iranian participation in terrorist attacks against the United States. Moreover, we could never be sure that the "dissident" groups with which we were dealing were authentic, and not agents of the current Iranian regime (like the "Iranian moderates" of Ronald Reagan's day).

We are between a rock and a hard place on Iran, and no amount of wishful or creative thinking will change that. The Iranian regime is hell-bent on securing nuclear weapons, and even if the EU or Mohammed El-Baradei or the Russians should manage to extract some conditional agreement from the mullahs, there is no reason to believe that the Iranian's won't cheat or renege. One variable that no one wants to think about is that the North Koreans might be willing to part with a couple of nukes from their meager arsenal (for the right, phenomenally high, price), thereby conferring an "instant" nuclear capability on Teheran. This is why passive assistance (e.g. intelligence, airspace allocation, aerial refuelling) to an Israeli effort to take out the Iranian nuclear facilities (and delivery means), fraught with peril though that may be, is the best of several bad options at this time.

33 posted on 12/15/2005 8:27:52 AM PST by pawdoggie
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To: F14 Pilot
Remember right before OIF there were reports of an EMP bomb that would fry electronics? If we could get something like that to work the electronics within those sites would be destroyed without killing too many innocents.

Failing that, we know we can drop cement-filled bombs that cause almost no damage except where they land. A factory next to a shrine is at risk. We also have bombs that can delay exploding until they've penetrated a specfied distance. Installations under a civilian target would, therefore, also be at risk. If the mosque is empty at midnight, no innocents would be killed, the mosque would have a small hole in it, and the factory underneath would be obliterated.

34 posted on 12/15/2005 8:44:52 AM PST by Dilbert56
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To: SJackson; Alouette; Salem

Just let Israel's Navy swim around Africa, and hit the targets with missiles from the vessels and submarines at Persian Gulf.


35 posted on 12/15/2005 8:45:52 AM PST by Wiz
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To: Restorer
Well we could name a 500 Megaton nuke "regime change" and do an air burst over Tehran.
36 posted on 12/15/2005 9:48:22 AM PST by TheFrog
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To: Restorer

Somehow I think that the Ruskies will "come to the rescue of" the mullahs by transporting the crude across the Caspian and exporting it as Russian oil. THe new Oil-For-Screw the US Program.


37 posted on 12/15/2005 10:27:12 AM PST by unionblue83
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To: expatguy
Not to be confused with "We are willing to die for our freedom"

Or the even better, "We are willing to kill our tyrants for our freedom."

38 posted on 12/15/2005 10:31:13 AM PST by ASA Vet (Those who know don't talk, those who talk don't know.)
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To: F14 Pilot; SJackson; yonif; Simcha7; American in Israel; Slings and Arrows; judicial meanz; ...
Regardless of the hurdles involved, you can bet the active duty American/Israeli military community is wargaming this scenario to a degree more extensive than here at FR.

As they should be.  !





AMERICA AT WAR
At Salem the Soldier's Homepage ~
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Islam, a Religion of Peace®? Some links...  by backhoe
The Clash of Ideologies - A Review

American Flag

39 posted on 12/15/2005 6:02:30 PM PST by Salem (FREE REPUBLIC - Fighting to win within the Arena of the War of Ideas! So get in the fight!)
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To: Dustoff45

Israel has had aerial tankers since the 1960s. Today their mainstay tanker is Boeing 707 airframes. They also use C-130s.


40 posted on 12/17/2005 3:46:25 AM PST by Tommyjo
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