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US Intelligence Expert: Regime-Change the Answer in Iran
Iran va Jahan ^ | December 13, 2005

Posted on 12/15/2005 2:48:58 AM PST by F14 Pilot

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To: F14 Pilot
Most of the country is young and wants music videos and TV and not the mullahs."

How pathetic. MTV rules the day.

21 posted on 12/15/2005 4:35:42 AM PST by varon (Allegiance to the constitution, always. Allegiance to a political party, never.)
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To: F14 Pilot

"That's a real good question that has been carefully studied," Loftus answered. "There are over 360 separate targets inside Iran that have been identified. Most of them are non-vulnerable – many underneath residential neighborhoods and Islamic shrines. These are not places we can bomb.

WHY?

Tagline...


22 posted on 12/15/2005 4:38:01 AM PST by TomasUSMC (FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM.)
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To: expatguy

Not to be confused with "We are willing to die for our freedom"



X ACT LEEEEE!!!!

Lets see....83 vs 17 or 42 vs 9 or 21 vs 5 whats stopping all those Iranians?


23 posted on 12/15/2005 4:42:45 AM PST by TomasUSMC (FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM.)
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To: F14 Pilot

If the choice is bombing Iranian religious shrines and civilian neighborhoods underneath which they are building nucelar weapons to destroy NYC, or letting them build nukes, the only option is #1.

It would be criminal to allow them to have nukes.


24 posted on 12/15/2005 4:50:03 AM PST by tomahawk
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To: Samurai_Jack; F14 Pilot

So, if a country, friendly to Israel, had in its inventory, a soon to be excessed aerial tanker, they might make it available to Israel.

What say, they render the aircraft completely airworthy and make it available for minimum consideration - $1.00.

Then that friendly nation could just play Sgt. Schultz - "I don't know nothing!"

Israel has complete responsibility for its actions. Our diplomats would state that Israel is a sovereign nation, and who are we to interfere with their internal security decisions.


25 posted on 12/15/2005 5:22:13 AM PST by Dustoff45
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To: F14 Pilot

At some point, the so-called 83% of the Iranian street will have to foment a genuine revolution if they don't want bombs raining down on them. They want their MTV but don't seem prepared to give their lives to have the freedoms they supposedly want.

Loftus is right, however, that conventional warfare would be a huge mistake unless there was overwhelming confidence that the entire program could be destroyed. Otherwise, without regime change, they'll end up getting set back a few years and launch as soon as humanly possible against Israel in retaliation.

Iran, on the other hand, IF they want to remain on the map, and save face, will have to drag out all their materiel and give Israel the option of destroying it in front of the world. This would prevent Israel from justifying the use of tactical nuclear weapons, and if they chose to bomb them conventionally, would open the door to retaliation by Iran.

The only way to avoid regime change for Iran is to avoid getting nuked. If they're patient, they could provide a "sitting duck" target for Israel in the short term, let them become the "aggressors" in the eyes of the world, and come back in three years fully nuclear and "justified" in whatever retaliation they prefer...


26 posted on 12/15/2005 5:27:01 AM PST by Rutles4Ever
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To: TomasUSMC

If the regime is placing targets in residential neighborhoods and mosques, it's the duty of the people to overthrow the government for putting them in the line of fire. At some point, if they accept the tyranny of their government, they must also accept the consequences doled out by the rest of the world because of that tyranny.


27 posted on 12/15/2005 5:30:21 AM PST by Rutles4Ever
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To: Atlantic Bridge
"This guy is right. The best alternative would be a blow from inside. We should help the Iranians in Iran to kill their theocracy and their contemporary gouvernment by themselves."

Yes I agree a better outcome than an all out war that is expensive in US lives and money. Not one of those people is worth 100 of our marines or infantry men. Take out their leaders destroy the infrastructure with surgical strikes and leave a young thriving Iran to become a democratic asset to the middle east. Not another post war dust bowl full of hatred and poverty ripe as a recruiting ground for terrorists.

28 posted on 12/15/2005 5:36:48 AM PST by Kelly_2000 ( Because they stand on a wall and say nothing is going to hurt you tonight. Not on my watch)
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To: Rutles4Ever
They don't have any weapons. We could give them some, but are too busy sitting on our backsides, playing footsie with the Europeans, and telling fortunes about upcoming elections domestically. They can't take on tanks with small arms (which they don't have). We easily could take out the heavy armor from the air, but we are too busy coddling our domestic traitors and trying not to offend hysterical painted whores in LA and NYC.
29 posted on 12/15/2005 5:59:43 AM PST by JasonC
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To: F14 Pilot
And if by chance the average Iranian regards an act of war by a Christian country as a reason to pull together behind a radical Islamic government rather than as a reason to allow the US decide what sort of Iranian government is acceptable as a condition of ending such a boycott... our next move then is what, exactly?

And it had better be a good one, considering that we would be in a *very* antagonistic position with Japan – and more to the point, China - over allocating the remaining oil production, would be facing greatly increased chances of Islamic uprisings in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt, would much have pretty much ended the prospects of cooperation with Europe over anything at all, and would quite possibly have crashed the world economy in the bargain...
30 posted on 12/15/2005 7:17:08 AM PST by M. Dodge Thomas
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To: wolfcreek

I assume there are some tiers of target importance within the 360 number. Hit the first tier targets without warning and watch them all scurry around like ants wondering where we will strike next.


31 posted on 12/15/2005 7:58:30 AM PST by Captain Rhino (If you will just abandon logic, these things will make a lot more sense!)
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To: F14 Pilot

Very informative, Yes Once Syria is "liberated" and Iran too, we'll have on happy family of Democracies in the middle east!

I'm for it of course, but Whoa! the sheer immensity of it! Of course the other options are: wait for the nuke to drop from Islam......


32 posted on 12/15/2005 8:05:31 AM PST by AmericanDave (Woe is the Income Tax......)
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To: F14 Pilot
The problem is that fomenting a popular uprising to effect "regime change" is an operation that might take decades, decades we simply do not have. What's more, any efforts we (i.e. the United States Government) might undertake would, if not handled with the utmost secrecy and discretion, would surely "blowback" on us in the sense of reinforcing the Iranian regime's paranoia, uniting even the wayward "yutes" against the US Imperialists, and possibly inviting direct Iranian participation in terrorist attacks against the United States. Moreover, we could never be sure that the "dissident" groups with which we were dealing were authentic, and not agents of the current Iranian regime (like the "Iranian moderates" of Ronald Reagan's day).

We are between a rock and a hard place on Iran, and no amount of wishful or creative thinking will change that. The Iranian regime is hell-bent on securing nuclear weapons, and even if the EU or Mohammed El-Baradei or the Russians should manage to extract some conditional agreement from the mullahs, there is no reason to believe that the Iranian's won't cheat or renege. One variable that no one wants to think about is that the North Koreans might be willing to part with a couple of nukes from their meager arsenal (for the right, phenomenally high, price), thereby conferring an "instant" nuclear capability on Teheran. This is why passive assistance (e.g. intelligence, airspace allocation, aerial refuelling) to an Israeli effort to take out the Iranian nuclear facilities (and delivery means), fraught with peril though that may be, is the best of several bad options at this time.

33 posted on 12/15/2005 8:27:52 AM PST by pawdoggie
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To: F14 Pilot
Remember right before OIF there were reports of an EMP bomb that would fry electronics? If we could get something like that to work the electronics within those sites would be destroyed without killing too many innocents.

Failing that, we know we can drop cement-filled bombs that cause almost no damage except where they land. A factory next to a shrine is at risk. We also have bombs that can delay exploding until they've penetrated a specfied distance. Installations under a civilian target would, therefore, also be at risk. If the mosque is empty at midnight, no innocents would be killed, the mosque would have a small hole in it, and the factory underneath would be obliterated.

34 posted on 12/15/2005 8:44:52 AM PST by Dilbert56
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To: SJackson; Alouette; Salem

Just let Israel's Navy swim around Africa, and hit the targets with missiles from the vessels and submarines at Persian Gulf.


35 posted on 12/15/2005 8:45:52 AM PST by Wiz
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To: Restorer
Well we could name a 500 Megaton nuke "regime change" and do an air burst over Tehran.
36 posted on 12/15/2005 9:48:22 AM PST by TheFrog
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To: Restorer

Somehow I think that the Ruskies will "come to the rescue of" the mullahs by transporting the crude across the Caspian and exporting it as Russian oil. THe new Oil-For-Screw the US Program.


37 posted on 12/15/2005 10:27:12 AM PST by unionblue83
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To: expatguy
Not to be confused with "We are willing to die for our freedom"

Or the even better, "We are willing to kill our tyrants for our freedom."

38 posted on 12/15/2005 10:31:13 AM PST by ASA Vet (Those who know don't talk, those who talk don't know.)
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To: F14 Pilot; SJackson; yonif; Simcha7; American in Israel; Slings and Arrows; judicial meanz; ...
Regardless of the hurdles involved, you can bet the active duty American/Israeli military community is wargaming this scenario to a degree more extensive than here at FR.

As they should be.  !





AMERICA AT WAR
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The Clash of Ideologies - A Review

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39 posted on 12/15/2005 6:02:30 PM PST by Salem (FREE REPUBLIC - Fighting to win within the Arena of the War of Ideas! So get in the fight!)
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To: Dustoff45

Israel has had aerial tankers since the 1960s. Today their mainstay tanker is Boeing 707 airframes. They also use C-130s.


40 posted on 12/17/2005 3:46:25 AM PST by Tommyjo
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