Oregon Ping
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Posted on 12/22/2005 7:41:20 PM PST by FairOpinion
According to National Planning Scenarios complied by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, an improvised nuclear bomb going off in an American city is not a farfetched idea. In fact, it's the number one risk to the nation.
Nuclear physicists using a Defense Department computer program to calculate the consequences of a nuclear attack on downtown Portland found that casualties would be surprisingly high.
While few people think Portland could be a terrorist target, experts say think again, including the head of Oregon Emergency Management. Director Ken Murphy says, "We don't ever want to think we're not a target because there's so many things that can change that."
Laura Holgate, the Vice President of the Washington, D.C.-based Nuclear Threat Initiative concurs, saying, "It's really not something you can say, well, geographically, I'm safe. There's no safe place from a nuclear attack."
Terrorists have made it a global goal to get a nuclear weapon. Osama Bin Laden has declared it a 'religious duty.'
So what would happen if the target were in downtown Portland at the base of the U.S. Bank tower?
We asked nuclear physicist Matt McKinzie at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington D.C. to analyze the impact of a 10-kiloton nuclear bomb placed at the U.S. Bank tower.
McKinzie says, "There would be an inner zone of almost complete destruction from the blast and from fire."
He used a computer program from the department of defense.
"Almost everything would be destroyed within one kilometer of ground zero," says McKinzie. Severe damage would continue out from the center of the explosion to a distance of three miles.
A mushroom cloud would rise miles above the city... People within 7 miles of ground zero are expected to die of radiation exposure within 1-day.
The computer factored in Oregon's prevailing November winds and plotted a cloud of fallout blowing east dropping radioactive particles out as far as Gresham.
While the radioactive cloud would diminish, it would continue across Mount Hood carrying contamination all the way to central Oregon north of Redmond.
McKinzie was surprised when the casualty calculations finished. Portland is so densely populated, casualties would equal those if a larger city was attacked.
"Portland is one of those worst case scenarios in that the city, the population of the city is so compact," says McKinzie.
"We calculate up to 40% of the population of Portland would be casualties, would be killed or injured in a 10-kiloton nuclear detonation in the heart of the city."
By mckinzie's calculations, 140,000 people would die or be injured.
"It's just unbelievable," says McKinzie.
National Geographic: Living with the bomb The blast would create an electro-magnetic pulse, like a lightning bolt, a pulse that would cripple all electronics within three miles. Emergency communications would crumble.
"These are as close to worst case as you probably imagine," says Ken Murphy, Director of Oregon Emergency Management.
He is familiar with the Homeland Security disaster scenarios and has discussed them with Portland leaders.
"Just the whole area of radiation exposure and sickness requires some detailed planning by city county and state health people," Murphy says.
He has read the Homeland Security scenario and has discussed it with Portland leaders. He concedes Oregon needs far more planning to deal with the fallout cloud scenario.
"I don't think people really realize how far wind can take stuff," says Murphy. "This is probably the one area I would say we as a state and the cities and counties really need to work even harder on."
Oregon's emergency director says the risk is real enough he thinks we need to resume nuclear attack drills.
With terrorist fanatics intent on getting the bomb, he says perhaps we need those Cold War drills again.
"I think we should do that," Murphy says. "We surely don't want to create a fear factor in our citizens, but that was training that was meant to prepare people for a potential attack."
I personally saw some of the good residents of Portland out protesting Bush's 'illegal war' in Nov of '04. I strongly suspect they think it won't happen to them since they are so 'peaceful', tolerant, diverse, and they hate Bush.
BTTT
The left is utterly clueless.
I actually had one lefty mockingly call warnings like this "nightmare Tom Clancy scenerios".
I reminded them that 9-11 was just that. And could have been much worse if not for the brave Americans that stopped that last jet.
They still dont get it. 9-11 has been forgotten by many.
Yes what makes Portland a target is their liberal population (liberal laws), not to mention Trojan nuclear plant (now shut down by the good residents of Portland) down the Columbia River.
What are they talking about, a suitcase bomb or a missile with a warhead on it? Two different scenarios but they lump it altogether. What kind of a scenario is that? Bogus as far as I am concerned. Just more of the dooms dayers "scare everyone as much as we can" bunch.
Isn't Portland one of those nuke free zones?
Isn't Portland one of those cities that refuses to cooperate with Homeland Security in tracking down terrorists?
I've found an error in my reasoning. I just assumed a terrorist bomb if detonated would be in an eastern city and that the prevailing winds would blow the radiation out into the Atlantic. A west coast detonation could spread some level of radiation across the entire US.
Time to review my plans.
Yeah, I had troublev with those 7 mile 100% radiation deaths too . Certainly not from a ground burst, as an IND would probably be.
A 10 Kiloton nuke is actually a very small weapons, relatively speaking, and it can still take out 40% of the population of POrtland.
First of all it doesn't matter how it gets there, but OBVIOUSLY they are talking about a terror attack. Anyone shooting a nuclear missile would have a much larger, than a 10 kiloton warhead on it.
There are scientific computer programs, which calculate the radiation, and they are based on the experimental detonations the US has done. A simple Google search will tell you that.
Sticking your head in the sand doesn't make you safe.
Just remember the Chernobyl accident. The entire continent of Europe was affected.
And you can say this because...? Conjecture on your part and not mentioned in the article at all. Matter of fact they didn't cite any specific size of bomb so how can you say we can do a google search and find this info out? Facts is what we like to deal with, not top of the head surmises. I'll keep my head out of the sand and await facts. You may continue to provide "what ifs" and "maybes" and run scared.
Dunno. With all the diverse, tolerant, and caring people that live there one would suspect that to be the case. I did see a John F'n sKerry bumpersticker on a vehicle the last time I was there. Clark County Washington (Vancouver) just across the Columbia River is solid red. I have yet to figure that out.
===
I really tried to keep from making this point, but there is just too much provocation. "It's better to stay silent and be thought a fool, rather speak and remove all doubt."
Right in the middle of the article:
"We calculate up to 40% of the population of Portland would be casualties, would be killed or injured in a 10-kiloton nuclear detonation in the heart of the city."
All it takes is using Google, before posting.
"Russia also has a nuclear arsenal of impressive size, but also on a downward trend in terms of quantity. As of April 1, 2005. The major missiles in Russias arsenal at present are 86 SS-18 Satan (coming in two versions one with a single 20 megaton warhead, the other with ten warheads with a 550-kiloton to 1 megaton yield), 10 SS-17s (each with four 550-750 kiloton warheads, these missiles are being retired), and 40 SS-25 (with a single 550-kiloton warhead). Russia is going to cut back to 40 SS-18, 50 SS-17, 144 SS-25, and 79 SS-27 Topol-M, which carries one warhead. Russia has also deployed 270 SS-25s in mobile launchers. Russia also has a force of fifteen SSBNs (six Delta III, six Delta IV, and three Typhoon). The Delta III carries 16 SS-N-18 missiles, which have one of three payload options: The Mod 1 carries a single 450-kilton warhead, the Mod 2 carries three 200-kiloton warheads, and the Mod 3 carries seven 100-kiloton warheads. The Delta IV carries sixteen SS-N-23s, each with four warheads (although it can carry up to ten). The Typhoon carries 20 SS-N-20 missiles, each with ten 100-kiloton warheads. The Borey-classs SSBN has been delayed due to difficulty with developing new SLBMs for them. Russia also uses cruise missiles and gravity bombs from their Tu-95 Bears, Tu-22M3 Backfires, and Tu-160 Blackjacks."
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hticbm/articles/20050616.aspx
Okay, agreed my mistake. But, is there any reason for me to be concerned? No, we pay big money to people to make sure this doesn't happen. If they don't stop it neither can I. So go on living. You may call it sticking my head in the sand but it won't make any difference if it is in the sand or out of the sand if and when it happens.
Unit 8 Investigation: Nuclear terror threat to Portland?
The West Hills of Portland are within 0.5 miles of their stated ground zero ... in addition Portland State University would absorb much of the blast. The Willamette River and I-5 are the eastern borders. The buildings in that area are not wood shacks but stone and steel. Yes downtown would be destroyed but 3 miles of severe damage is very doubtful.
What about vaporized water from the Willamette River? Wouldn't that cause a lot of fall out damage and death?
Exactly what is surprising about the notion that a technology developed in the 1940s might still be able to kill hundreds of thousands of people in 2005?
I get the impression that many on the left in this country believe that (1) nuclear weapons no longer actually work, or that (2) terrorists would not actually use atomic weapons against us. They are in pathological denial.
Then again, many on the right seem to believe that the only way to deliver a nuclear device is by using a long-range missile, as though a container on a cargo ship could not contain a cell-phone detonated A-bomb.
Only to the fish.
I do not like the fact that they are publishing sensitive information to our enemies. If our enemies did not know they could kill 140,000 people in Portland where security is more lax then say NYC, then they sure do now.
There is EVERY reason for you to be concerned.
Congress is taking away all the effective measures that can be used to prevent such an attack: no spying on terrorists, no "degrading treatment", don't want to reauthorize the Patriot Act. Saddam's lawyers are now claiming "psychological torture"
So now we can't monitor communications of terrorists, can't even say a harsh word to them, when they are captured, so how do you propose to find out and prevent a nuke on our soil?
If you think that just staying ignorant or living in denial will make you happy, that's your choice.
What people should do, is realize the danger and tell Congress to pass strong anti-terror legislation, instead of tie the hand of the Administration.
I agree with you in what you say we should do. However, in the interest of this country Congress should be doing what it takes to protect us. They would rather play politics than listen to the people. When was the last time you ever had one of your elected Congressional people respond to your concern? They don't respond any more and think that their answer is the end of the story.
"However, in the interest of this country Congress should be doing what it takes to protect us."
And I agree with you on this 100%.
There are many things that need to be done for yourself and those you care about, for instance, a safe water supply, food, batteries, a radio for information, ammunition and weapons, first aid supplies...you have these things on hand so you don't have to rely upon anyone to protect you or your's. It has nothing to do with whether you believe an attack will take place but could you survive after an attack or even a natural disaster for that matter.
"They still dont get it. 9-11 has been forgotten by many."
A lot of lefties think Bush was somehow *behind* 9-11. It's just that most of them are smart enough not to say it out loud.
But don't worry. After the next attack some of 'em will see the light. I just hope it's not a nuclear flash. At least, not near me.
Granted.
This begs for a certain gif, imo.
Oregon Ping
Please notify me via FReepmail if you would like to be added to or taken off the Oregon Ping List.
*Isn't Portland one of those cities that refuses to cooperate with Homeland Security in tracking down terrorists?**
Yes.
Thanks for the ping!
It don't work. Can't input geographical area.
I just tried it again with IE and mozilla. Works fine.
Yeah, it works. You do need javascript enabled.
Ok. Thanks. I'll enable Java Script.
I've got "Scripting of java applets" as enabled (bolted), still doesn't work.
...in the Security/Internet zone.
Yes.
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