Katherine Harris
Posted on 01/01/2006 1:28:15 AM PST by presidio9
would seem that few in Florida politics suffered through a more miserable 2005 than Katherine Harris.
The Longboat Key congresswoman's attempt to replace incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson in the 2006 election was impeded by her own Republican Party leaders, who engaged in a public attempt to find another candidate.
Polls show her trailing Nelson badly. She failed to meet her own fundraising targets, and the caricatures from her role in the 2000 presidential election were resurrected.
Worried? Not her.
"It's been a great year," she said, rattling off a list of accomplishments in Congress and praising a re-energized campaign team.
Her former campaign manager cited Harris' fixation on her work in Congress as a reason for abruptly leaving his post earlier this year. Harris says she's now fully focused on the campaign.
She cites a fundraising tour that will begin next month with Fox News talk show celebrity Sean Hannity as the host in six Florida cities.
"Whenever you have to get into a campaign, I think there's always a mental transition it takes me to get there. I'm certainly focused now and excited," she said.
Harris said the media "kind of jumped the gun on me" by devoting so much attention to her campaign.
"I hadn't really intended to start the campaign so early," she said, decrying the "fabrications" of her campaign's woes as "neither true nor having an effect." She notes that the nonpartisan Cook Political Report still lists the race as competitive, despite polls repeatedly showing Nelson with up to a 20 percentage point lead.
"That may be the hopes of the media," she said of the stories that her campaign is in trouble. "I don't think they'd be writing about it if they weren't worried we'd win."
Still, the media is only the messenger of news that can at best be construed as an undesirable campaign start.
Republicans spent much of 2005 trying to find someone else to run against Nelson.
The biggest sign of desperation came when House Speaker Allan Bense, well-respected in Tallahassee but little-known around the state, was courted in a White House meeting with President George W. Bush's top advisers.
On top of that, Harris' fund-raising ability -- assumed to be a strength, given her national fame from her role in the 2000 presidential election as Florida's secretary of state -- has instead disappointed, falling short of the $1 million she predicted. She has about $470,000 in her campaign account compared with nearly $6.5 million for Nelson.
National pundits speculated that Republican leaders were urging GOP donors to avoid giving to squeeze Harris out of the race.
David E. Johnson, a Republican consultant and CEO of Atlanta-based Strategic Vision, said Harris can take some solace in the fact that she is still the lone Republican in the race and that she is still above 30 percent in polls.
But the best sign for Republicans is that Nelson still is showing lukewarm support in polls, with his support hovering about 50 percent.
"Nationally, (Republicans) are very worked up about a lot of Senate races, and Florida is very doable for Republicans to pick up this seat," Johnson said.
But he added that Republican support for Harris has yet to build.
"They're going to continue to undermine her. They'd love to get her out," he said, adding that if Harris fails to raise $2 million in the last three months of this year, "she's in serious trouble."
Johnson and others speculate that another weak fundraising quarter by Harris would allow national Republicans again to ask Bense, U.S. Rep. Mark Foley and others to enter the race with a promise of aggressive fundraising help.
For Democrats, the stakes are even higher.
Nelson is the lone statewide-elected Democrat in Florida, with Republicans holding the other Senate seat, the governor's mansion and all three Cabinet posts.
With control of the U.S. House firmly in Republican hands, the Democrats' best hopes lie in keeping their Senate seats and winning a few more to reverse the 55-44 seat majority the GOP has.
Dave Beattie, a Democratic consultant and pollster who is working for Nelson, said the race is "not a gimme" given Florida's Republican strength.
The 2006 election "determines Florida's future in 2008," Beattie said. "If there are no statewide elected Democratic officials in Florida, then Florida is not going to be a battleground state for the presidential race."
Nelson has been in full campaign mode, fundraising around the state and taking a high-profile and bipartisan stance against oil drilling.
Nelson's campaign manager, Chad Clanton, said the campaign is not being distracted by the hole Harris is currently in as the new year begins.
"We at the campaign are preparing for a tough race and for whatever comes," Clanton said. "We're never lifting off the gas till the day after the election."
Go Katie Go
She's going to lose Florida for the reps.
Not only does she have high "negatives", but she seems pretty high on the "lightweight" index.
Nelson's campaign manager, Chad Clanton, said the campaign is not being distracted by the hole Harris is currently in as the new year begins.
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I disagree with this statement. Nelson has been as quiet as a church mouse. He hasnt' said a peep about any of the debatable issues that we are hearing everyday.
2 years ago when he and that slug Bob Graham were the only 2 in the state they would rant that the 2000 election was rigged, yada yada
Nelson has not been in campaign mode, if it is defined as keeping his thoughts to himself and not sturring the pot well then he is. I will be the first to counter his campaign when he comes to the West coast, we are as red as red gets over here.
1) nelson will hurt himself next week in the Alito hearings.
2) Florida is continually moving to the right.
3) Florida is getting 1100 new people a DAY. They are tax refugees and not coming to Florida to vote Democrat.
4) When the Harris campaign starts to define nelson, a right leaning state will realize how out of step he is.
5) The war, the economy, and the stupid "Bush lied" stuff will have turned seriously against all Democrats. It will be especially significant in a military friendly state like Florida.
6) NOBODY GETS A SHIITE about the recount of 2000. This was proved by the ash whipping Jeb put on mcbride 14 pts just two years afterward.
7) The so called "angry disenfranchised Blacks" turned out at just 1% greater in 2002. The Democrats couldn't get more Blacks to the polls with a FIREHOSE.
8) Even if they could get more Blacks out, the Democrats will come to a tipping point where the Blacks they get out are voting against them. ( This is how people switch. They don't jump sides very often. It is a gradual process. First they don't vote. Next the vote 3rd party. Then they switch. It takes three or four cycles sometimes.2006 is three cycles.)
9) The Florida Democrats gotv operation in 2004 was magnificent. Their only problem was that the Florida GOP's gotv was even better. The Democrats maxed out and still fell 5 points short.
I think more of our $$ this cycle will go to individual campaigns rather than directly to the Republicans. Any suggestions? I've heard speculations that this is a dangerous year for Republican governors.
The little lady has not started to fight. She is intrepid, agressive and liked. I predict she will overrun her country club pubbie opposition. She has enough class to put them to shame.
) When the Harris campaign starts to define nelson, a right leaning state will realize how out of step he is.
5) The war, the economy, and the stupid "Bush lied" stuff will have turned seriously against all Democrats. It will be especially significant in a military friendly state like Florida.
I particularly like #5
Katerine Harris can not "lose" Florida any more than Janine Pirro could have lost NY, because each was running against an incumbant. The difference is that Harris is actually a Republican and she CAN win if she gets the money and Republicans stop buying into the MSM's demonization. She is no more of a "lightweight" than the President was. If there is a better candidate, let him step forward already. The clock is ticjing.
Check out The Club for Growth. they endorse progrowth small government candidates for the Primaries, and bundle individual contributions to candidate's campaigns. They are a good guide if you want to adopt some conservatives.
WITH OUR FAITH IN CONGRESSWOMAN HARRIS IN HER STRUGLE
to unseat the incumbent liberal -
SHE WILL WIN !
If the RNC Leadership had given her their full support at the beginning, she would be doing better by now !
It is time to unite behind this lady, not abandon her like
a quitter !
QUITTERS NEVER WIN ! !
Katherine Harris has to campaign more in the SouthEast
Has she been campaigning there at all ?
If not, she better start now !
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