Posted on 01/07/2006 9:41:37 AM PST by DoctorZIn
Top News Story
Iran's "Let's Roll" Beginning?
Alan Peters: Special Report
Analysts watching Iran on a daily basis were not taken by surprise by the Islamic Regime not showing up at the International Atomic Energy Agency on January 05, 2006, since reports out of Tehran have for the past weeks been mentioning President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad's office privately leaking to the Tehran newspapers that Iran already has four nuclear weapons obtained from the Ukraine.
Back in 1991/1992 three nuclear weapon devices the Mullahs had obtained from Kazakhstan were verified on ground in Iran and intelligence further estimates that Iran has totally between eight to 12 nuclear devices from the Soviet era.
The press leaks pointed to Iran possibly not proceeding with negotiations, reassuring internal supporters and preparing to confront the West. The final decision to disdain the European meeting was apparently made with the sudden incapacitation of Israel's Ariel Sharon.
Concurrently, Iran has suddenly moved a significant number of tanks toward its southern border near Basra, Iraq; has started repositioning naval assets and intercepts show military communications have become very atypical.
Is Iran expecting an attack now that the more pragmatic Sharon is out of the picture or has U.S and Coalition information leaked to them of an impending strike to put an end to nuclear weapons falling into the hands of someone like Ahmadi-Nejad. The new regime in Iran has certainly tried to provoke the USA and Israel beyond the point of endurance.
Brigadier-General Mohammad Kossari, head of the Security Bureau of the IRGC has long stated, "Iran intends to become a superpower and will drive all foreign forces out of our region". What was previously sheer hyperbole now has a basis in serious executive policy and planning.
Alternatively, is Iran planning to set up a reactive retaliation in the Middle East by the USA from an attack through surrogates like the Hezbollah?
The huge one-day increase in fatalities in Iraq appears to be an effort to distract the Coalition Forces, while the Islamic Regime sets up its pieces on the war map. Part of this involves backing up an increasingly under pressure Syria and trying to take advantage of the power vacuum in Israel.
Palestinian confrontation at the Gaza border with Egyptian forces on January 4th, 2006, which drove the Egyptians back a good mile, allowed Iran supported and financed Hezbollah to bring in substantial quantities of high-end weaponry through the gap they had bulldozed in the concrete slab border.
Iran, Syria and the Hezbollah can now create havoc in Israel. Either as a starter for a regional conflict or in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Mullah's nuclear facilities. In addition, perhaps help ward off pressures by Saudi Arabia and Egypt on Syria that would not favor Iranian interests.
Working in Iran's favor is the disagreement between the Saudi desire for a Sunni take over in Syria and Egypt's decades of fighting the Moslem Brotherhood, who would enter the picture if the ruling Alawites of President Bashar al-Assad were overthrown.
Cairo has been trying to lobby the French government to give al-Assad another chance despite the latter recently offering asylum to al-Assad's defecting deputy, Abdul Halim Khaddam, who can lay bare all Syria's secrets. Potentially including the location of WMDs that Syria accepted from Iraq both just prior and during U.S. and Coalition Forces invading. Plus, about stockpiles moved to the Beqa'a Valley in Lebanon in anticipation of the invasion and currently guarded by the Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, back home, Ahmadi-Nejad and his spiritual mentor Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi – both fanatical adherents of the apocalyptic Hojatieh - which promotes Armageddon, pain, suffering, oppression and misery to entice their religious icon, the 12th Imam to return sooner - based on a sufficient quantity of all these for him to bother, now move into the next phase of their power grab.
From the day after he was sworn in as President in mid-August, Ahmadi-Nejad has replaced every key position – down to mid and lower levels, with his military Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) colleagues and their supporters. Despite a few hiccups with his crony choices of amazingly useless candidates for the position of Oil Minister and a couple of other posts, which the Majliss (parliament) refused to ratify, he now has his people deep inside all parts of the power structure.
Interestingly enough, the rejection of one person as Oil Minister was because the former deputy minister of Defense was independently rich and therefore unacceptable. The story behind that story was that he had confiscated enormous tracts of property and goods, ostensibly for the benefit of the country, then kept it all himself.
The internecine struggle and fissure between the old guard Mullahs and the fundamental, neo-Islamic government of Ahmadi-Nejad has also reached boiling point with him and his mentor Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi fanning the flames. Realizing that the new President controls most strings of government, on paper at least - and also the IRGC – as opposed to the less effective standing army, Mesbah Yazdi has approached the Council of Experts to elect him as Supreme Ruler to replace Ali Khamenei.
Ironically, Mesbah Yazdi and the Iraqi born Minister of Justice, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroodi, were the only two who supported designating Khamenei as a Grand Ayatollah, nobody else would, which was a prerequisite to his being elected Supreme Ruler to replace Khomeini. Incidentally, sabotaging the original Ayatollah whom Khomeini had previously selected as his religious heir.
Now Mesbah Yazdi has apparently recanted and asks the Council to elect him instead. (Khomeini found Mesbah Yazdi's lunatic fringe Hojatieh version of Islam so appalling he eventually drove it underground by refusing to acknowledge or support it). Should this power putsch succeed, Iran will not only have an incredibly strange President but also an even weirder new Supreme Ruler.
As if all this were not enough, Western financial analysts have reluctantly come to accept and write about Iran's neo-Islamic leadership, with its propensity for death and destruction built into its philosophy, to potentially cause a melt down of the world economy.
Iran has already threatened to stop oil shipments if Europe goes along with any referral to the UN Security Council and deals its oil in Euros rather than dollars.
(For more on the Hojatieh, Ahmadi-Nejad and the oil crisis he can bring about, read my article posted here.
or this and other articles can be read here.
The name “Alan Peters” is a nom de plume for a writer who was for many years involved in intelligence and security matters in Iran. He had significant access inside Iran at high levels during the rule of the Shah, until early 1979.
© Copyright 2006 Alan Peters
DoctorZin:
If his sources are correct and Ahmadinejad is leaking that Iran has nuclear weapons, it would appear he is intent on creating a crisis now! Many believe Ahmadinejad is setting a trap for the west because western military action at this time would likely be of a limited nature since the west is unprepared for a full scale occupation of Iran. Such a confrontation would likely end in a negotiated settlement leaving the regime in power, but would also likely include internationally agreed to security arrangements with the regime, a very dangerous proposition indeed.Other Must Read Reports:
- The Associated Press reported that Iran failed to show up for a meeting with the IAEA where they were to provide the International Atomic Energy Agency with details of its plans.
- EUbusiness reported that experts from Iran, in Vienna, returned home on Thursday without explanation.
- Reuters reported that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that Iran's resumption of atomic fuel research would signal its rejection of a diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis.
- Kenneth R. Timmerman, FrontPageMagazine.com reported that the massive stroke of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon marks the likely starting point of the coming nuclear showdown that will pit the Jewish state and the free world against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
- The Teamsters issued a Press Release which called on the President of Iran to immediately release the Iranian union leaders and members and negotiate in good faith with the Union of Workers of Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company, whose members have not had a wage increase in over four years.
- Yahoo News reported that Iran's president said he hoped for the death of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
- The Daily Telegraph reported that the US blasted as "hateful and disgusting" remarks by Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad hoping that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon does not survive his massive stroke.
- Iran Press News reported that in recent months the regime has been selling donkey meat to people who thought were buying beef. But its ok because the donkeys were slaughtered "Islamic style."
- Iran Press News reported on series of what it described as "incidents" at the Shahreh-Kord prison.
- Iran Press News reported on the 200 workers from Miral Glass Factory who had gathered to protest months of non-receipt of their wages.
- Iran Press News reported that a human rights activist, Qafoor Mohammadi, was imprisoned in Mahabad, Province of Kurdistan.
- Adnkronos International reported that Israel is planning to launch a new website in Farsi to counter the anti-Israel campaign of Ahmadinejad.
- SMCCDI reported that two female students were seriously injured by brutal Bassijis who splashed acid to their faces.
- Xinhua reported that Iran informed the Syrian leadership of the latest developments concerning the country's nuclear studies.
- Iran Focus reported that Iran's President continued to push for "relocation" of Israel.
- The Associated Press reported that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice chose unusually blunt language to warn Iran that time is running out to avoid being hauled before the U.N. Security Council.
- Claude Salhani, UPI reported that former Syrian Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam is planning to form a government-in-exile.
- James P. Pinkerton's, Newsday made a prediction for 2006: Iran could heat up, or start a cold war.
- Austin Bay, Ventura County Star argued that the Iranian regime's greatest fear is a popular, pro-democracy rebellion.
- The Guardian published an extract from State of War, by James Risen.
- P. David Hornik, FrontPageMagazine.com reported that the news about Iran could seemingly shake even Western Europe out of its complacency and pacifism if that was still possible.
- And finally, The Intelligence Summit reported that they will reveal Saddam's personal and confidential weapons of mass destruction tapes next month.
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If Iran attacks Basra he will have the UK to contend with. I don't think they will do that.
I wonder if even a nuke going off over U.S. troops, on U.S.or Israeli soil would be get the libs to support a real war on all terrorists....
Iranian reinforcements opposite Basra would not be used to attack Basra, but to reinforce Iraqi Shia if they rise up in support of Iran in a future confrontation between Iran and Israel/USA.
It may not get support from Libs, but it will sure get suport from Americans.
And This American, for sure.
Note to the Bush Admin:
Go get Dingy Harry, Kennedy, Pelosi, Murtha, Sheehan, Durbin, et al and take them to Gitmo where they will be held as hostile..for the duration. After the dust settles, then we can straighten all this out....we don't need enemies within helping the terrorists.
Sorry, but IMHO this report brings up nothing but questions:
IF Iran has in fact had ex-SovBloc nukes (plus, one must assume, replacements/service/training as a paying customer) since 1991, why devote all the treasure and effort in establishment of their own weapons program with all of the burdens of publicity, outrage and potential adverse action that program has brought to their door?
Why not take all that cash and spend it on delivery systems, keep your mouth firmly shut until you simply announce a competence rather than indulge in strident threats that accomplish nothing but alert even the most catatonic of your adversaries?
Why, for that matter, spend anything at all since you have but to provide a few of those nukes to your terrorist clients and allow THEM to be your delivery system?
Between all the restructure and consolidation of power under the secular side of Iran's government and this apparent parallel movement among religious leadership, I think that all the statements about nukes, Isreal, the US and Europe are no more than a fandance to cover the power grab AND the last dash to get enough functional nukes to support the whole facade.
If somebody has a stick in their hand, they do not need to hold a press conference before they use it to hit you in the head.
I'm sorry to say that it seems that "Alan Peters" is spinning more than usual. Maybe the rpm is higher than is advisable by the Surgeon General.
LMAO!
"Alan Peter's" arguments about 1991 nukes in Iranian hands doesn't make sense, for reasons noted by others. But what remains a fact on the ground is Ahmadinejad's escalation of rhetoric, very public rhetoric. There is no leader of any country that draws such attention to himself without a reason. And the part of Peter's report that is most compelling, if true, is that which deals with recent Iranian troop movements. Add to that all the contingencies surrounding Sharon's problems, and Condi canceling her long-scheduled trip to Asia, and I would say - Something is in the air that wasn't there 3 months or so ago, and that something sounds more and more ominous.
BTTT!
You're making an important point. Ahmadinejad is indeed simply mouthing the sentiment all around him, and that he has been believing for decades. But now he is a leader of a major Middle Eastern country, and this changes everything. Now this ugly sentiment is playing out, and being repeated over and over, on a world stage. So the world - beginning with Israel - cannot simply avert its eyes in disgust, including the Europeans. When Europeans take notice, their knee-jerk appeasement notwithstanding, then you know a loudspeaker has entered the calculation. The phrase "Never Again" means something, and the Israeli leadership knows exactly what it means. Ahmadinejad is purposefully pulling that chain, and he also knows the consequences - and yet he is doing it anyway, and no one is stopping him from doing it. This is new.
I wonder if even a nuke going off over U.S. troops, on U.S.or Israeli soil would be get the libs to support a real war on all terrorists....
_________________________
Certainly not!!! After all, it is perfectly clear that all of this is BUSH'S FAULT!
I predict that the use of atomic weapon by terrorist forces will result in the immediate demand by the Democrats for impeachment proceedings against Bush and Cheney. The response by the Republicans will be to censor the Democratic leadership.
This is going to get very, very ugly. The Democrats have sealed their fate. They are no longer capable of representing any responsible segment of the American public.
Not very prophetic, Amos. Any severe attack on the U.S. will initiate a huge backlash against the Dems, and even the MSM will finally abandon them. Bushies have little to fear in the future: With no attacks, they look better and better; with an attack, all the vicious-stupid Dem banter will look not impeachable but, worse, treasonous. The only wild card I see is if the attack is found conclusively to have originated from a border-crossing to our South. Then I think the public will demand a sea-change of both Reps and Dems - and the winner will be Giuliani.
You can say that the Islamic regime has been like this since 1979 but his rhetoric has been a bit unusual
Re: Iranian Alert - January 7, 2005 - Special Must Read Report - Why Is Iran Seeking A Crisis Now?
From FARS | 01/07/2006 1:31:17 PM PST replied
You do have a tendency to laugh from the wrong end of your body. And from your posts, claim a knowledge and expertise of matters you don't actually have. Or try to do a survey of whether the USA will attack Iran? Who asked you to do that? Get real.
For those who question the credibility of Alan Peters report, I think you might find it interesting to note that I have received nothing but praise from the leading experts on Iran for having posted his article earlier on my website.
These same experts have confirmed many of the essential elements of the report and therefor your "personal attacks" on Mr. Peters are to me a sign of a lack of an ability to argue the facts of the case.
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