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Iranian Alert - January 11, 2006 - As the world awakens, signs the regime may be fracturing
Regime Change Iran ^ | 1.11.2006 | DoctorZin

Posted on 01/12/2006 1:34:23 AM PST by DoctorZIn

Top News Story

As the world awakens, signs the regime may be fracturing as it prepares for a confrontation.

Iran Breaks The Seals and the World Wakes Up.

  • Reuters reported that the U.N. nuclear watchdog confirmed that Iran had broken U.N. seals at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant.
  • The Financial Times reported that European diplomats said an emergency meeting could be held this week.
  • The New York Times reported that the White House said if Iran continues on its current nuclear course, it will leave the international community no choice but to refer Tehran to the U.N. Security Council for possible actions.
  • The Times reported that Jack Straw, the UK Foreign Secretary, warned the Iranians today that they were "pushing their luck."
  • Bloomberg reported that French President Jacques Chirac said Iran and North Korea risk making a ``serious error'' by pursuing its nuclear activities.
  • Yahoo News reported that Germany's foreign minister said Tehran had "crossed lines which it knew would not remain without consequences."
  • Spiegel Online reported that German newspapers, both right and left, have given up on negotiations with Iran.
  • Kuwait News Agency reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday expressed concern about Tehran's decision to resume enrichment of uranium.
  • Turkish Daily News reported that Turkey's ambassador to the United States said that Iran was "irreversibly" heading for acquisition of nuclear weapons.
  • Telegraph reported on the predictably lame response from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
  • James S. Robbins, National Review Online reported that there is a buzz at Foggy Bottom - low level, but growing - that maybe it would not be so bad if Iran went nuclear. A very bad idea.
  • The Times reported that Iran was likely to be referred to the UN Security Council for punitive sanctions by the end of the month.

The Air Crash... Sabotage?

  • Mehran Riazaty reported that the air crash could be an inside job. Photos suggest a possible internal explosion brought down the aircraft. Before and after photos. More Photos.
  • Stratfor published an analysis of the air crash saying it could indicate foul play aimed at undermining Ahmadinejad's power base and influence.
  • Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that the eleven top Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders died yesterday in a plane crash came as tensions among the ruling mullahs are rising.
  • Iranian Student News Agency published photos of the military commanders that died in yesterdays air crash. Plus reports by Ken Timmerman and Dan Darling.

The Regime Prepares for a confrontation.

  • Iran Press News reported that 0il revenues to be taken out of foreign banks and transferred back to Iran, in anticipation of possible freezing of Iran's assets in foreign banks.
  • Iran Focus reported that Rafsanjani said: “Our enemies are poised to take advantage of the situation inside the country to begin another mischief against Iran, but we don’t know where this mischief will begin.”

  • Daniel Pipes, Frontpagemag.com provided a report on the foreign policy implications of the expectation by the "faithful" in Iran that anticipates the soon return of the 12th Imam. Leading Iranian thinkers to conclude that if "the Mahdi will come in two, three, or four years, why should I be soft? Now is the time to stand strong, to be hard.”
  • Iran Press News reported that talk in Iran of a hotel being built in time for the 12th Imam's reemergence.
  • Iran Press News reported that Islamic Republic of Iran is next to last on industrial growth index of Mid East countries.
  • Teamsters.org reported that the Teamster's President Hoffa called on Iranian President to release striking bus drivers. The Unions are finally joining the struggle.
  • Iran Press News reported that all of the Islamic regimes government employees live under the poverty line.
  • Iran Press News reported that a 17-year-old Nazanin was sentenced to death for protecting her chastity against three rapists.
  • Iran Press News reported on more executions in Iran.
  • Iran Press News reported that a female member of the Organization for Human Rights in Kurdistan savagely beaten and kidnapped.
  • Iran Press News reported that cameras are being installed around Iranian universities in order to tighten control over students.
  • And finally, The Middle East Media Research Institute published the first in a series of papers that will include translations of statements by members of the Iranian regime and Iranian leaders on various issues. Plus a cartoon.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ahmadinejad; alqaedaandiran; atomic; axisofevil; axisofweasels; ayatollah; azadi; binladen; democracy; dissidents; freedom; freeiran; ganji; guardiancouncil; humanrights; iaea; insurgency; iran; iranazadi; iranianalert; iranianregime; irannukes; iranpolicy; irgc; iri; islam; islamic; islamicrepublic; khamenei; khomeini; khomeinism; ledeen; mullahs; muslims; nuclear; nukes; persecution; persia; persian; persians; politicalprisoners; protest; protests; regime; regimechangeiran; revolutionaryguard; shiite; studentmovement; studentprotest; tehran; terror; terrorists; theocracy; usa; vevak; wot

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin

1 posted on 01/12/2006 1:34:34 AM PST by DoctorZIn
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To: Pan_Yans Wife; fat city; freedom44; Tamsey; Grampa Dave; PhiKapMom; Hinoki Cypress; ...
Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

2 posted on 01/12/2006 1:35:59 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Do you think the Iranian people will overthrow the government and kick the Mullahs out? Prayers will continue going out for the Iranian people!


3 posted on 01/12/2006 1:39:59 AM PST by sugar_puddin
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To: DoctorZIn
no choice but to refer Tehran to the U.N. Security Council for ...

Referring it to the UN is closing our eyes and holding our ears and thinking now they will be nice.

4 posted on 01/12/2006 1:45:56 AM PST by ThanhPhero (di hanh huong den La Vang)
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To: DoctorZIn

Maybe it's time to send in Jimmy Carter and his crack "Despot Preservation Unit"(?)


5 posted on 01/12/2006 1:52:48 AM PST by The Duke
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To: sugar_puddin

The time is nigh


6 posted on 01/12/2006 2:01:41 AM PST by wildcatf4f3 (the friend of my enemy is my enemy)
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To: sugar_puddin

Virtually all internal regime changes require intense international support.

Pressure has to be brought to bear on the regime in such a manner to encourage the democratic forces inside of Iran to act in unison against the regime.

What is the western world waiting for?

The only other options are a military occupation of Iran or a nuclear Iran.


7 posted on 01/12/2006 2:03:03 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn
So what is the prospect for revolutionary (or counterrevolutionary) change in Iran, and does the "inside" option (which I like better, if it can be done) look better than sending the Marines and a couple of Army divisions to knock over the regime, if they won't back off their nuclear-weapons program?
8 posted on 01/12/2006 2:03:04 AM PST by lentulusgracchus ("Whatever." -- sinkspur)
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To: DoctorZIn

Are they asking the world to wait ??


9 posted on 01/12/2006 2:18:29 AM PST by Rumple4
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To: DoctorZIn
French President Jacques Chirac said Iran and North Korea risk making a ``serious error'' by pursuing its nuclear activities.

I'm sure this has them really scared. At most it means that if the US and UK decide to actually do something, maybe France won't get in the way.

10 posted on 01/12/2006 3:16:40 AM PST by libertylover (Bush spied. Terrorists died.)
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To: DoctorZIn

it is sad to say but iraqi deja vu all over again.


11 posted on 01/12/2006 3:27:02 AM PST by JohnLongIsland
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To: DoctorZIn
"Pressure has to be brought to bear on the regime in such a manner to encourage the democratic forces inside of Iran to act in unison against the regime."" :
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.................
If history can be a guide: it took what 50 yrs for the USSR to collapse, China still under commie boot. Cuba- still under castro's boot.

Iraq after 12 yrs of no fly zones and one war Saddam still required an invasion to be removed from power.

Let's not put our hopes in an over throw of the Mad Mullahs
by the people..as we do not have 50 yrs to allow for it.

The only option is limited air strikes and limited ground action aimed at removing the leaders and the military ability of IRan - the future of warfare is not the full scale invasion but the surgical removal of those in power and the freezing of communications and electric power grids combined with the occupation or destruction of key military targets such as the nuke facilities..a truly asymmetric war limiting our forces exposure to harm while using all available means to destroy the targets.
Iran is target one for this new warfare (Iraq was first attempt at this type of warfare with some old military concepts still carrying the day.)
12 posted on 01/12/2006 3:27:53 AM PST by ConsentofGoverned (if a sucker is born every minute, what are the voters?)
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To: DoctorZIn; Khashayar

Just a word of encouragement for you guys- now that Pilot has moved on, and things are heating up, stay vigilant!

-prayers for Persian freedom.


13 posted on 01/12/2006 3:32:16 AM PST by ovrtaxt (I looked for common sense with a telescope. All I could see was the moon of Uranus.)
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To: The Duke

Jimmy could go to "Desert One," where his micromanaged hostage rescue attempt failed.


14 posted on 01/12/2006 3:49:29 AM PST by GeorgefromGeorgia
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To: DoctorZIn

And if Iran continues to work on nukes, we can all wring our hands together.....oh me, oh my!


15 posted on 01/12/2006 3:54:26 AM PST by armydawg1 (" America must win this war..." PVT Martin Treptow, KIA, WW1)
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To: DoctorZIn
What is the western world waiting for?

============================================

Give me a break. Twice in 1Q-05 President Bush told the iranians - "Stand and we will stand with you.". He did this in globally televised speeches, including the State of the Union Address. In other words, he told the world in the clearest language he could use that we will be behind your people.

Every rational westerner wants to see the change. It is disturbing to hear you say that the West has to act first when the real question is "What are iranians waiting for?"

16 posted on 01/12/2006 4:50:31 AM PST by wtc911 (see my profile for how to contribute to a pentagon heroes fund)
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To: ConsentofGoverned
The only option is limited air strikes and limited ground action aimed at removing the leaders and the military ability of IRan

=================================================

What do you mean 'limited ground action'? One RCT? Two? Where will they come from? Where will the troops needed to hold the territory we take for as long as is necessary come from? When do they leave? And don't underestimate any nation's sudden patriotism when an outside force shows up.

How do you stop iran from using resources in place to shut down the Straits of Hormuz (their only genuine capability)?

No, the hard fact is that we do not possess the boots to take iran (if you think I'm wrong then answer the questions with facts). The iranians need to rise up for themselves. When (if) that happens things will change.

17 posted on 01/12/2006 5:00:56 AM PST by wtc911 (see my profile for how to contribute to a pentagon heroes fund)
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To: wtc911
reported that the White House said if Iran continues on its current nuclear course, it will leave the international community no choice but to refer Tehran to the U.N. Security Council for possible actions. in other words STOP OR I'LL SAY STOP AGAIN!
18 posted on 01/12/2006 5:20:30 AM PST by jneesy (certified southern right wing hillbilly nutjob)
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To: DoctorZIn

In which State of the Union address (which year) did Bush offer praise to the youth of Iran and their cause for dramatic change in Iran?

I'm puzzled that he can say this ONCE, and not be expected to follow through. Or that he himself doesn't want to follow through, even with something as simple as more statements.

Having said that, I doubt there is much of a military option on the table, knowing that we are already fighting two wars. Maybe plans can be laid for the future?


19 posted on 01/12/2006 5:24:51 AM PST by Pan_Yans Wife ("Death is better, a milder fate than tyranny. "--Aeschylus)
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To: Pan_Yans Wife
In which State of the Union address (which year) did Bush offer praise to the youth of Iran and their cause for dramatic change in Iran? I'm puzzled that he can say this ONCE, and not be expected to follow through. Or that he himself doesn't want to follow through, even with something as simple as more statements.

=============================================

2005.

And , follow through how? The rest of Bush's message (the part you left out) was crystal clear - Stand up and we will stand with you.

We are waiting for iranians to stand. When do you think they will?

20 posted on 01/12/2006 6:10:17 AM PST by wtc911 (see my profile for how to contribute to a pentagon heroes fund)
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To: wtc911
"What do you mean 'limited ground action'? One RCT? Two? Where will they come from? Where will the troops needed to hold the territory we take for as long as is necessary come from? When do they leave? And don't underestimate any nation's sudden patriotism when an outside force shows up."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.....................
good points, if it was easy with no down side would have been done by now.
We are left with a radical gov with nukes and global aims to remove western influence from "Islamic nations"
my take on how to remove IRan as a real threat:

1, would not like to go into specific tactics but the next modern war is not heavy with boots on ground - much less manpower than even in Iraq invasion
2. goal is to remove as many top leaders as possible and
destroy offensive capability of military-not form new government it may weaken the mullahs enough to allow moderates to take over- but the goal is removal of nukes and missiles once that is done -that is the end point - Iran(with russian and chinese and french help) will have to fix it's own government. Russia will be on board as will China.
21 posted on 01/12/2006 6:19:19 AM PST by ConsentofGoverned (if a sucker is born every minute, what are the voters?)
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To: wtc911

The encouragement needs to continue, considering much news from the West is filtered out. I have no date set in mind for which "something" should be done. I leave that to the Executive Branch to determine.

I believe the youth can and will rise up. I just wonder if it is possible to help them, either before or after they take a stand. The Persians deserve every help they can get in removing the mullahs.


22 posted on 01/12/2006 6:21:10 AM PST by Pan_Yans Wife ("Death is better, a milder fate than tyranny. "--Aeschylus)
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To: DoctorZIn
"Virtually all internal regime changes require intense international support."

This is not true. The American and French revolutions needed no significant outside support. The communist revolution in Russia had no outside support.

Indeed for a successful regime change outside support is often poison. With the support of foreign powers, revolutionaries are often seen as traitors to the homeland rather than patriots and as such lose the support of the people.

In Islamic countries this is especially true if the populace suspects the revolutionaries are westernized and would forsake Islamic principles in favor of western culture.
23 posted on 01/12/2006 6:35:18 AM PST by monday
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To: DoctorZIn

"The world" i.e. the UN, France, etc etc aren't going to do anything about Iran or N. Korea but bluster. Once again, it will be up to the U.S. to try to solve the problem, and once again, they will whine about our unilateral action.


24 posted on 01/12/2006 6:36:56 AM PST by MEGoody (Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.)
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To: monday

The American Revolution didn't need or use the outside support of the French?


25 posted on 01/12/2006 6:40:23 AM PST by Pan_Yans Wife ("Death is better, a milder fate than tyranny. "--Aeschylus)
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To: Pan_Yans Wife

"The American Revolution didn't need or use the outside support of the French?"

It was pretty insignificant, as I stated in my original post.


26 posted on 01/12/2006 7:20:15 AM PST by monday
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To: lentulusgracchus

A regime change is not going to be of the deomcratic variety. The mullahs aren't going anywhere. Ahmadinejad might get ousted, but Rafsanjani and his ilk would probably return to power.


27 posted on 01/12/2006 8:28:02 AM PST by Rutles4Ever
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To: libertylover

"I'm sure this has them really scared. At most it means that if the US and UK decide to actually do something, maybe France won't get in the way."

Yes, with emphasis on maybe.


28 posted on 01/12/2006 7:14:42 PM PST by mjaneangels@aolcom
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To: DoctorZIn; Khashayar
This year will see the end of the Iranian nuclear program and the demullification of Tehran.

The UN and the French will not figger in it.

29 posted on 01/13/2006 12:36:18 AM PST by PhilDragoo (Hitlery: das Butch von Buchenvald)
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To: Rutles4Ever
A regime change is not going to be of the deomcratic variety. The mullahs aren't going anywhere. Ahmadinejad might get ousted, but Rafsanjani and his ilk would probably return to power.

Then the best we could hope for is that the 13th-Century Wing and the 8th-Century Wing of the Mullah Party fall on one another and teach each other to pieces.

Leaving the Pahlavis to walk back in, pick up the pieces, and return Iran to at least the 20th Century.

30 posted on 01/13/2006 6:02:59 AM PST by lentulusgracchus ("Whatever." -- sinkspur)
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To: mjaneangels@aolcom

Good related work from VDH:

http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson200601130837.asp


31 posted on 01/13/2006 7:39:39 AM PST by GeorgefromGeorgia
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To: DoctorZIn
To read today’s thread click here.

Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

32 posted on 01/13/2006 8:04:45 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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