Iraqis Urging Unity, but Rifts May Be Too Deep

NY Times ^ | January 22, 2006 | DEXTER FILKINS

[jmc1969]

With all the ballots from last month's election finally counted, the leader of Iraq's largest Sunni alliance telephoned his Shiite rival on Friday night to wish him well in the weeks ahead.

Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador here, has made it clear that he intends to involve himself directly in the negotiations - as forcefully as is necessary - to make sure the Sunnis are given a significant role.

But for all the expressions of solidarity, most of the political factors now in play seem weighted against a broad-based government. Many Iraqis suggest that the most likely government will be an alliance between the Shiites and the Kurds, with the Sunnis cut out altogether.

In the vote totals announced Friday, the Shiite coalition and an alliance of the two largest Kurdish parties fell just three seats shy of the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to form a government.

With 181 seats in all, the Shiites and Kurds would need to pick up just three additional seats from the 10 other groups that won seats in the election. If they can do that, they will not need the Sunnis to form a government or to pass laws.

It seems clear that the Shiite leadership is considering going ahead without the Sunnis. Shiite leaders are petitioning the Iraqi election commission for a re-interpretation of the vote counting rules that would, if it were accepted, grant the Shiites 10 additional seats.

The same arithmetic would also come into play in the mechanism to amend Iraq's new Constitution. Early this month, Hakim, with a rough outline of the election totals already in hand, declared that the Shiite coalition would oppose any significant changes in the constitution.

[Daralundy]

Well someone is really depressing aren't they?

[Proud_USA_Republican]

Nobody wants Iraq to fail more than the Treason Times.

[jmc1969]

Of course the NY Times is best at that isn't it.

But this article does present the biggest challanges for Iraq quite starkly.

The UIA wants to change the election rules after the fact to give themselves 10 more seats. They have pulled this kind of crap before with the Constitution. If they pull it off there will be hell to pay on the streets of Iraq.

Also, if they cut the Sunnis out as some UIA politicians want... well I don't even want to think of that scenario right now.

[LZ_Bayonet]

Another source for this type of information, more creditable than the Slimes, is the Iraqi blog www.iraqthemodel.com

[jmc1969]

I am well aware of ITM and go there all the time. They are pretty much saying exactly what this article says, but putting a far more optimistic face on it.

[CBart95]

Thanks for these NYT "talking points" friend.

We know all we need to know about you after this.

[rlmorel]

It is what everywherere, negagtivisits say ovder and over, through time.

[jmc1969]

We know all we need to know about you after this.

---

hahaha, tell me what is going on in the political process in Iraq right now?

Tell me if you think Sadr or Harkim are willing to give Defense or Interor to any other party, or if they are willing to support changing the Constitution, or if they want to cut out the Sunnis and go it alone with the Kurds.

This is the most important battle that is going on in Iraq right now and it is entirely political.

I have far more confidence in the Iraqi security force and the US army in dealing with the insurgents then I do with Sadr, and Harkim who lead the UIA.

The real question is can the US get Sadr and Harkim to share power in Iraq with the Sunnis and that is going to be a very hard endevor.

I am very optimistic about the military side of the war and how it has been progressing, but the political side is very much up in the air.

[jmc1969]

It would be nice to know what kind of carrots and sticks the administation is hanging over the heads of the UIA.

If I were them I would dangle the carrot of billions of dollars in aid for years to come. And, the stick would if they refuse we release the dirt I know we have dug up on some of the leaders of the UIA and some of the behind the scenes actions they have taken.

Nothing is more important in Iraq now then the negotiations to form a new government and change the Constitution.

We still have alot of leverage in Iraq and if there was ever a time to use it this is the time.

[jmc1969]

I have been thinking about it and the US actually has even more power then most people might think to effect this thing, especially if the UIA fails to add 10 more seats to their total.

All the US has to do is influence how 4 or 5 Kurds or members of the UIA will vote (most likely using money) and we can prevent a non-unity government from being formed.

If the US uses the resources it has on the table at its desposal we should be able for get a national unity government even if Harkim and Sadr don't want it. I don't believe the UIA entirely used fair play in the last election so I really don't have a problem with the US using very agressive tactics to create a unity government.

The main thing we need to remember is it is far more important to push as hard as possible for a political settlement that preserves the future of Iraqi democracy, then to simply allow for the cards to fall where they may.

[USS Alaska]

What this piece of negative gibberish and wishing doesn't say is that the sunni's got zero representatives in January 05 and went to the polls in December and got 55 representatives out of 275. They are a real political factor. 55/275 is 20%, the same number as the sunni population.

The Iraqi people realize that in order to have reasonably safe and secure lives, all groups must participate in the political arena. The sunni's are beginning to turn on the terrorists and will be the main force in rooting out the real bad guys.

The hope of the nyslimes is that the shiites and kurds are very stupid and will intentionally try to exclude the sunnis. They are not that stupid and do not want to awaken every day in anticipation of another 10-15 people being blown to pieces.

The biggest fear of the left is any success in the mid east will result in credit being given to GWB, the real enemy of the lefty loons.

If you ran a poll over at the du, and asked "Who would you rather see die today, ubl or GWB"? Who do you think would get the most votes? "Nuff" said.

[Marine_Uncle]

Appreciate your multiple pings/comments on this posting. Things appear to really becoming unglued. Abu Aziz al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr have entirely to damn much influence over the UIA and other parties such as the National Independent Cadres and Elites Parties, and all got the backing of the Mahdi militia as we are well aware.
For all we know the Grand Ayatollah Sistani may continue to do nothing in the background from a political point of view and just let the cards play out. Perhaps he has long ago given these clowns a "wink wink" to stay in line from a public standpoint but work to gain the ultimate power base.
But I say nothing new you are most probably more accutely aware of then I. What I could add however is a big...
Ooooooh shit! Along with your posting today regarding the fat boy's public disclosure that he would back Iran with the Mahdi militia, all bets appear off that he could settle down and be somewhat of a team player, in essence recognizing that Iraq needs a national government for all the people. It is not in his nature. His mental make up will prohibit him from doing what is best for Iraq. Unlike a guy like Allawi who could have the vision to lead with a balanced repertoire.
Unless as you mentioned, and the article eluded to, Zalmay Khalilzad, can somehow apply sufficient pressures with all the right top leaders in this current fray, it looks like the Shia are going to royally screw the whole process up.
This whole process is a slippery slope at best. If the US somehow manages the outcome in a given direction. Then it will appear the permenent four year government is nothing but a US puppet. And we know where that leads. If we through our Iraqi-American embassador cannot effect the outcome, then what they end up with is their doing mostly. And we cannot be blamed later for setting up a "un-workable" government.
As for infusions of monies,"bribary", again, things will come out and bite us as always happens. Perhaps my innocence in believing Sistani would have more of a say in the background and keep the fat boy and his fellow cleric in line really represent my ignorance of what power I thought Sistani possesed.
Clearly Sadr and Hakim appear to be running the show respective of the UIA, and affiliated parties, mentioned earlier. And we know what power Hakim has had in the south, and Sadr in the capital. The mobs will follow them to a death march if required.
And as we both and others have frequently said, maintained, the Kurds could pretty much stay out of the main fray, simply go along with the UIA and other Shia based parties that want a strong North/South alliance but with seperated sovereignty and let the provinces dominated by the Sunni just rot.
With no central national government ruling out of Baghdad, Iran is going to break up. And if it does not, surely not in any form approach what the GWB team have hoped would come to past. That is a vibrant democratized sovereign nation, fully bent on modernizing, becoming a world leader in oil exports, and rebuilding and improving on it's industrialized infrastructure.
Sadr and the like would rather they go back to the twelve century with of course him ruling the roost.

[jmc1969]

I believe we should be going behind the back of the UIA and talking with Sistani as I do see him as more resonable then Sadr or Harkim as Sistani does not support the south breaking away to form its little Shiastan.

The biggest problem Iraq has is that Sadr and Harkim are basically acting like children who don't want to share what they see as their toys.

[jmc1969]

Or at least that is what I have been led to believe that Sistani thinks. The truth is I have no idea what he really thinks.

[Marine_Uncle]

"The truth is I have no idea what he really thinks."
We can only go by what we have read and test those things that appeared to hold up over time. If the equation has changed, or previouse appraisals where simply wrong in total, then so be it.

[jmc1969]

One thing it is important for us to remember is there are big ups and downs in Iraq and in the negotiation process.

It may look bad now, but Sistani could be waiting to play his hand and the US could be waiting to play its hand.

There is alot that could effect the negotiations. I am not sure what getting Zarqawi in the next two months would do to the negotiation process, but that probably would give the current interor minister the leverage to stay on.

There is alot that can happen in the next few weeks and months.

[McGavin999]

Hakim and Sadar are both minions of the Iranian mullahs. Sistani is diametrically opposed to them. We do have that going for us, as well as the fact that most Iraqi Shiia remember the Iran/Iraq war. Most of the Iraqi dead in that war were Shiia.

Biggest problem is Hakim and Sadar have no problem torturing and intimidating people in order to get their way. Sistani believes the clerics role is to listen to the people and do what they want. They completely ignored Sistani's wishes in this last election. He forbid them to use him in the campaigning but they used his pictures all the time. He may be little more than a prisoner right now. Notice how quiet he's been lately.

[jmc1969]

You are right has been very very quiet.

[Marine_Uncle]

Guys. Do not feel obligated to respond, unless you feel lead. I am sure we all will be commenting as things develop. But I cannot help but agree 100% with McGavin999 regarding Sistani's position since I have voiced the same thing for a long time.
Both Sadr and Hakim have simply gone bezerk and Sistani just sits in the background and watches. Perhaps his health deteriated after his heart surgery and he just does not feel up arguing with these two. So they figured they will simply do what they want and no longer obey those thousand year old rules that say they are to follow the Grand Ayatollah under all circumstances. Of course I realize both of them had family members killed by Saddam. But surely that should have little to do with building a future Iraq. Obviously they want nothing to do with westernized democratic institutions nor anything western. They want to live in their little kingdome and rule their particular set of subjects. Little Hitlers if I may.
At any rate. This is going nowhere we have not been a dozen times. hang in there.