Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Global Warming Bombshell
Technology Review ^ | October 15, 2004 | Richard Muller

Posted on 01/31/2006 1:29:52 AM PST by Exton1

Global Warming Bombshell

A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics. ..... Canadian scientists Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have uncovered a fundamental mathematical flaw in the computer program that was used to produce the hockey stick. In his original publications of the stick, Mann purported to use a standard method known as principal component analysis, or PCA, to find the dominant features in a set of more than 70 different climate records.

(Excerpt) Read more at technologyreview.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: caruba; climate; climatechange; globalwarminghoax; hockeystick; junkscience; temperature
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-52 next last
Or "Junk in, Junk out"
1 posted on 01/31/2006 1:29:54 AM PST by Exton1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Exton1

Technology Review ^ | October 15, 2004

???????????????


2 posted on 01/31/2006 2:10:46 AM PST by angkor
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

From the same Article.
Quote:

If you are concerned about global warming (as I am) and think that human-created carbon dioxide may contribute (as I do), then you still should agree that we are much better off having broken the hockey stick. Misinformation can do real harm, because it distorts predictions. Suppose, for example, that future measurements in the years 2005-2015 show a clear and distinct global cooling trend. (It could happen.) If we mistakenly took the hockey stick seriously--that is, if we believed that natural fluctuations in climate are small--then we might conclude (mistakenly) that the cooling could not be just a random fluctuation on top of a long-term warming trend, since according to the hockey stick, such fluctuations are negligible. And that might lead in turn to the mistaken conclusion that global warming predictions are a lot of hooey. If, on the other hand, we reject the hockey stick, and recognize that natural fluctuations can be large, then we will not be misled by a few years of random cooling.

A phony hockey stick is more dangerous than a broken one--if we know it is broken. It is our responsibility as scientists to look at the data in an unbiased way, and draw whatever conclusions follow. When we discover a mistake, we admit it, learn from it, and perhaps discover once again the value of caution.

Quote end.


3 posted on 01/31/2006 2:11:40 AM PST by globalheater (There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare - Sun Tzu)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1
Mann purported to use a standard method known as principal component analysis, or PCA...

Looks more like he used a method called TBS, or total bull ****.

4 posted on 01/31/2006 2:11:55 AM PST by 6SJ7
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

Hockey Sticks defeat Global Warming


5 posted on 01/31/2006 3:24:52 AM PST by shekkian
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1
Or "Junk in, Junk out"

NO! This is not a case of junk in, junk out. The problem is not in the data, but in the deficient understanding of those who wrote the computer program. I saw no indications of errors in the data, just in how that data was processed.

6 posted on 01/31/2006 3:27:54 AM PST by wotan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1
OK, so the math was wrong. They got the results they wanted, so what's the problem? Maybe Dan Rather knows?
7 posted on 01/31/2006 3:29:50 AM PST by Fresh Wind (Democrats are guilty of whatever they scream the loudest about.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

This will, of course, get immediate review and acceptance by the UN.

And the democrats.


8 posted on 01/31/2006 3:32:50 AM PST by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

This is old news, and was talked about quite a lot here on FR.
Anyway, it is nice to remind people.


9 posted on 01/31/2006 3:34:04 AM PST by AlexW (Reporting from Bratislava, Slovakia)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Fresh Wind; neverdem; Howlin; sionnsar; CholeraJoe; Cyber Liberty
OK, so the math was wrong. They got the results they wanted, so what's the problem?

And THAT is the fundamental flaw in the global-warming-caused-by-United-States-economic-activity argument.

These liberals/socialists/UN "scientists" WANT is one result (US is responsible and must be taxed).

What they NEED (and are getting!) is a messy hodge-podge of contradictory and incomplete results.

But they WANT one result.

As scientists, they MUST look for facts and real theories, NOT THE RESULTS THEY WANT.
10 posted on 01/31/2006 3:39:39 AM PST by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

ping


11 posted on 01/31/2006 3:39:47 AM PST by N2Gems
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: N2Gems

ping


12 posted on 01/31/2006 4:22:04 AM PST by TYVets (God so loved the world he didn't send a committee)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

BTTT


13 posted on 01/31/2006 4:23:55 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

This article made a splash, but since has not had any noticeable impact on the GW debate. I think that is because most of the strident adherents to the GW cause approach it from an emotional level--almost like a religious conviction. Science has little to do with it now.


14 posted on 01/31/2006 4:50:21 AM PST by B.Bumbleberry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1
Or "Junk in, Junk out"

I concur with wotan. The data was not junk, the reliance on computer analysis to provide "irrefutable" results is the error. Computer programs are only as good as the people who write them and what this article exposes is the fact that the computer program contained a serious flaw that yielded erroneous results.

It is those flawed results that have fueled the enviro-wackos' arguments for years. Dr. Sallie Baliunas has long complained that the computer models showing deleterious and huge temperature increases due to "greenhouse gases" have been flawed and yielded exaggerated effects not support by real-time data. This article supports her criticism of the computer models in addition to kicking the legs out from under the enviro-wackos arguments.
15 posted on 01/31/2006 4:54:25 AM PST by DustyMoment (FloriDUH - proud inventors of pregnant/hanging chads and judicide!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DaveLoneRanger

ping


16 posted on 01/31/2006 4:59:44 AM PST by A message
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DustyMoment

mark for later


17 posted on 01/31/2006 5:00:29 AM PST by dirtboy (My new years resolution is to quit using taglines...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

I wonder how much money this fraudulent hockey stick was able to sucker out of people?.....


18 posted on 01/31/2006 5:04:42 AM PST by mo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: PretzeLogic

ping!


19 posted on 01/31/2006 5:26:39 AM PST by hobson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1
That hockey stick articles was out for a while......and some commentary:

WSJ editorial

Original post

More from NR

20 posted on 01/31/2006 6:44:24 AM PST by The Raven
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

Not too long ago (in geologic terms), the Midwest was covered with a glacier 1500 feet deep and colder than Alaska is today. Do I believe in Global warming? You bet! And I'm damn thankful for it.

Do I believe that Global waring is caused by hairspray, cars and freon? You gotta be kidding.


21 posted on 01/31/2006 6:48:24 AM PST by anton
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: globalheater

Pardon me for not reading the whole article, but what is the "hockey stick??"


22 posted on 01/31/2006 6:49:46 AM PST by RockinRight (Attention RNC...we're the party of Reagan, not FDR...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Exton1
Uhhhh... Ooops?

Repeat after me:

Man-made Global WarmingTM is a MYTH!
Man-made Global WarmingTM is a MYTH!
Man-made Global WarmingTM is a MYTH!


23 posted on 01/31/2006 6:51:02 AM PST by TChris ("Unless you act, you're going to lose your world." - Mark Steyn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Fresh Wind
Maybe Dan Rather knows?

What they 'Rathered' the results?

24 posted on 01/31/2006 6:52:45 AM PST by BluH2o
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: angkor

I don't know why someone reposted that story at this particular time...
but see post 20.
I sent the Wall Street Journal article to a cousin when it appeared, so
I had heard of this little bit of scientific sloppiness (or fraud).


25 posted on 01/31/2006 6:52:59 AM PST by VOA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Exton1
LOL

But it got a glowing "peeeeered review". Oh follow the money, science has become the welfare ticket for the survivalists.
26 posted on 01/31/2006 6:57:14 AM PST by Just mythoughts
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RockinRight
See my post #23, "Breaking the Hockey Stick".

The "hockey stick" chart is one of the central features of the Global WarmingTM theory. It alleges that global atmospheric temperatures have sharply increased in recent years as a result of increased atmospheric CO2.

This article reveals just one of the problems with that graph. The same computer program was shown to produce the characteristic "hockey stick" shaped output regardless of what data was input! It's essentially worthless.

27 posted on 01/31/2006 6:58:46 AM PST by TChris ("Unless you act, you're going to lose your world." - Mark Steyn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: TChris

I caught that after I posted. The fact is, CO2 is, chemically, a "greenhouse gas" BUT-not nearly as potent of one as the enviroweenies would have us believe. I've read plenty of articles about the potential terraforming of Mars. In those articles, they mention increasing Martian CO2 by amounts a hundredfold of what Earth has that would increase temperatures 10 degrees or so. So a 50 PPM increase on Earth isn't going to make any discernable difference at all.


28 posted on 01/31/2006 7:08:37 AM PST by RockinRight (Attention RNC...we're the party of Reagan, not FDR...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: RockinRight

it's the shape of a hockeystick (sharp bend) in a plot that is derived from long term temperature observations and co2 concentrations in the atmosphere over time. If observed it was supposed to be logical consequence that a correlation between these two observations existed.

Obviously there was something fishy about the modells logic so that other people found, that the modell doesn't only deliver these hocky sticks for the case that the two examined values correlated but also if you use random numbers as an input.

This is quite embarassing for the guys who waved the hockeystick - but far from a proove that rising co2 partial pressures in the atmosphere are of no significance for the world's climate.

The relations between fossile fuel burning and the world's climate are not yet clear. But unquestioned is, that a rising CO2 level in a gas mixture similar to our atmophere leads to a higher degree of reflection of the ground's heat radiation. It acts like a rescue-blanket with a gold-layer.

If fossile fuel burning is not compensated by some mechanism yet to find, it was a way of elevating the worlds avarage temperature. It's a risk and hints show, that it is likely.

Today everything seems to be about deciding what's risky and what is of minor importance to mankind.

My Risks for the Existance of prospering Civilisations List:

1. Ahmedinedjad and the bearded guys promoting him.
2. extremism of any kind in countries with high levels of corruption and poverty
3. China, India, Brasilia and their agressive growth (it's a chance at the same time)
4. Diseases like AIDS and H5N1
5. Global Warming
6. A direct hit by a meteorite


what do you think ?


29 posted on 01/31/2006 7:59:32 AM PST by globalheater (There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare - Sun Tzu)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: A message; Exton1

Thanks for the ping. This is kind of old news (2004) which we already covered a ways back.


30 posted on 01/31/2006 8:17:35 AM PST by DaveLoneRanger ("We are a religious people whose institutions presuppose a Supreme Being." SCOTUS, Zorach v. Clauson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

This article has been published in October 2004. How come this so called bombshell is still relatively unknown ?


31 posted on 01/31/2006 8:31:11 AM PST by SirLinksalot
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: globalheater
we mistakenly took the hockey stick seriously--that is, if we believed that natural fluctuations in climate are small--then we might conclude (mistakenly) that the cooling could not be just a random fluctuation on top of a long-term warming trend,

I love this. Even after breaking the hockey stick, the researcher doesn't grasp his own bias in the subject. What if the cooling was not a random fluctuation?

32 posted on 01/31/2006 9:14:02 AM PST by dirtboy (My new years resolution is to quit using taglines...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

he's up a certain creek without certain equipment.


33 posted on 01/31/2006 9:16:57 AM PST by globalheater (There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare - Sun Tzu)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: SirLinksalot

it's been more of a nutshell


34 posted on 01/31/2006 9:18:39 AM PST by globalheater (There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare - Sun Tzu)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: abbi_normal_2; adam_az; Alamo-Girl; Alas; alfons; alphadog; AMDG&BVMH; amom; AndreaZingg; ...

ping


35 posted on 01/31/2006 9:20:55 AM PST by freepatriot32 (Holding you head high & voting Libertarian is better then holding your nose and voting republican)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: albertp; Allosaurs_r_us; Abram; AlexandriaDuke; Americanwolf; Annie03; Baby Bear; bassmaner; ...
Libertarian ping.To be added or removed from my ping list freepmail me or post a message here
36 posted on 01/31/2006 9:22:21 AM PST by freepatriot32 (Holding you head high & voting Libertarian is better then holding your nose and voting republican)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

This is factual, but ont new. We've kicked this around a few times before.


37 posted on 01/31/2006 9:40:19 AM PST by editor-surveyor (Atheist and Fool are synonyms; Evolution is where fools hide from the sunrise)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SirLinksalot
This article has been published in October 2004. How come this so called bombshell is still relatively unknown ?

Because all the global warming 'experts' are safely hiding in their bomb shelters?

38 posted on 01/31/2006 9:43:58 AM PST by Always Right
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: freepatriot32

BTTT


39 posted on 01/31/2006 10:01:10 AM PST by E.G.C.
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: SirLinksalot
It's been discussed on Free Republic many times since 2004, so it's not unknown here. As for elsewhere, draw your own conclusions.
40 posted on 01/31/2006 10:27:37 AM PST by FredZarguna (Vilings Stuned my Beeber: Or, How I Learned to Live with Embarrassing NoSpellCheck Titles.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Exton1
Revisiting the Global Warming Hoax
Alan Caruba
June 9, 2003
In simple terms, CO2 is the lifeblood of the planet.

********************************************************

There has been no spring on the East Coast of the United States this year. Even into the early days of June, the weather has remained cold and damp. One is tempted to ask, "Where is the global warming that has been predicted?" but this cold spell in the US is offset by a heat spell in India that has killed dozens of people. Is global warming occurring there, but not here? Is global warming occurring at all?

No. The entire global warming hoax is based on computer models and they are designed to produce the kind of data that supports the claims by environmentalists that the Earth is warming at an alarming rate. The blame is assigned to the combustion of fossil fuels, the basis for the provision of energy to heat our homes, service manufacturing, and fuel our transportation needs.

We are told that the main culprit is the increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth's atmosphere. Testifying on May 13, 2003 before the US House of Representatives' Committee on Resources, Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric Science and director of the Earth System Center at the University of Alabama, said, "CO2 is not a pollutant. In simple terms, CO2 is the lifeblood of the planet. The vegetation we see around us would disappear, if not for atmospheric CO2. This green world largely evolved during a period when the atmospheric CO2 concentration was many times what it is today…in other words, carbon dioxide means life itself."

This raises the obvious question, if CO2 is integral to all life on Earth, why have the environmentalists been striving to put restrictions on it through such instruments as the United Nations Kyoto treaty and propagandizing its supposed danger?

Why have the Greens consistently produced bogus "computer models" that predict a massive, swift "warming" when, in truth, it is virtually impossible to know with any certitude the overall temperature of the Earth's surface? Whole aspects of knowing or predicting this remain largely a mystery to the best meteorologists and climatologists. "Fundamental processes, for example heat transfer, are not adequately described in the models," Dr. Christy noted. He could have added that little is understood or known about the actions of cloud formation worldwide.

His testimony is particularly significant because Dr. Christy recently served as a lead author of the UN's' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, frequently cited as proof that global warming is occurring. Little known to the public is the fact that most of the scientists involved with the IPCC do not agree that global warming is occurring. Instead, its findings have been consistently misrepresented and/or politicized with each succeeding report.

Dr. Christy's latest paper, published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, revealed that estimates of global warming "show much less warming, less than half, observed at the surface. The real world shows less warming in the atmosphere, not more, as models predict." He told the House Committee that computer models should be "viewed with great skepticism."

Despite the IPCC claims, studies have clearly demonstrated that "large temperature swings have been common in the past 1,000 years, and that temperatures warmer than today were common in 50-year periods about 1,000 years ago. These studies suggest that the climate we see today is not unusual at all."

The global warming hoax is not about the Earth's climate. It is about an attack on the economies of those nations that produce much of the world's wealth. "Our country is often criticized for producing 25% of the world's anthropogenic CO2," Dr. Christy noted, "However, we are rarely recognized and applauded for producing, with that same CO2, 31% of what the world wants and needs; its food, technology, medical advances, defense of freedom, and so on."

The industrialized nations of the world are the target of the environmentalists, as is the entire population of the world. By every means possible, they have sought to undermine economic growth and to enhance the reduction of human life on this planet. Those of us who defend growth, who oppose their efforts to keep vast portions of the Earth's population in poverty and subject to lethal diseases, are assailed as "tools of multinational corporations" and advocates for "pollution." Nothing could be further from the truth.

What we want is the worldwide spread of prosperity and, importantly, the spread of freedom that underwrites it.

What we don't want is for people to suffer from the Big Lie of Global Warming being perpetrated out of the United Nations and propagandized by environmentalists worldwide.


Alan Caruba is the author of "The United Nations Vs. The United States", available from the website of The National Anxiety Center. He writes a weekly column, "Warning Signs", also posted on the site. The Center is a clearinghouse for information about scare campaigns designed to influence public opinion and policy.

41 posted on 01/31/2006 10:36:59 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All
Not by Fire but by Ice
THE NEXT ICE AGE - NOW!

**************************************

And

***********************************

Prepare for another ice age, says Clinton

42 posted on 01/31/2006 10:43:50 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: freepatriot32

Thanks for the ping!


43 posted on 01/31/2006 10:44:27 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Excellent post and links!


44 posted on 01/31/2006 2:01:26 PM PST by alwaysconservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

I'll settle for a little global warming in NE Ct. Just enough so that I can play golf, I'm not greedy.


45 posted on 01/31/2006 2:05:11 PM PST by jwalsh07
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

Don't confuse me with facts.

We gotta do something before its irreversable according to Sunday's The Washington Compost


46 posted on 01/31/2006 2:18:49 PM PST by Jimmy Valentine's brother (Democrats would rather whine than win)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mo

"I wonder how much money this fraudulent hockey stick was able to sucker out of people?....."

As Carl Sagan might say "Billions upon Billions"


47 posted on 01/31/2006 3:04:35 PM PST by GoodWithBarbarians JustForKaos (Feminism... Didn't they achieve their goals yet? Guess not! lol)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Exton1

GIGO - Garbage in, garbage out


48 posted on 01/31/2006 3:06:52 PM PST by GOPJ (Massachusetts: the State that elects drunk killers then reelects them and reelects and reelects and)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: globalheater

"My Risks for the Existance of prospering Civilisations List:

1. Ahmedinedjad and the bearded guys promoting him.
2. extremism of any kind in countries with high levels of corruption and poverty
3. China, India, Brasilia and their agressive growth (it's a chance at the same time)
4. Diseases like AIDS and H5N1
5. Global Warming
6. A direct hit by a meteorite

what do you think ?"

-I think you should flip-flop #'s 5 & 6.


49 posted on 01/31/2006 3:49:45 PM PST by GoodWithBarbarians JustForKaos (Feminism... Didn't they achieve their goals yet? Guess not! lol)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: GoodWithBarbarians JustForKaos

doesn't sound wrong either


50 posted on 02/01/2006 12:21:53 AM PST by globalheater (There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare - Sun Tzu)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-52 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson