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Posted on 01/31/2006 1:29:52 AM PST by Exton1
Global Warming Bombshell
A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics. ..... Canadian scientists Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have uncovered a fundamental mathematical flaw in the computer program that was used to produce the hockey stick. In his original publications of the stick, Mann purported to use a standard method known as principal component analysis, or PCA, to find the dominant features in a set of more than 70 different climate records.
(Excerpt) Read more at technologyreview.com ...
Not too long ago (in geologic terms), the Midwest was covered with a glacier 1500 feet deep and colder than Alaska is today. Do I believe in Global warming? You bet! And I'm damn thankful for it.
Do I believe that Global waring is caused by hairspray, cars and freon? You gotta be kidding.
Pardon me for not reading the whole article, but what is the "hockey stick??"
Repeat after me:
Man-made Global WarmingTM is a MYTH!
Man-made Global WarmingTM is a MYTH!
Man-made Global WarmingTM is a MYTH!
What they 'Rathered' the results?
I don't know why someone reposted that story at this particular time...
but see post 20.
I sent the Wall Street Journal article to a cousin when it appeared, so
I had heard of this little bit of scientific sloppiness (or fraud).
The "hockey stick" chart is one of the central features of the Global WarmingTM theory. It alleges that global atmospheric temperatures have sharply increased in recent years as a result of increased atmospheric CO2.
This article reveals just one of the problems with that graph. The same computer program was shown to produce the characteristic "hockey stick" shaped output regardless of what data was input! It's essentially worthless.
I caught that after I posted. The fact is, CO2 is, chemically, a "greenhouse gas" BUT-not nearly as potent of one as the enviroweenies would have us believe. I've read plenty of articles about the potential terraforming of Mars. In those articles, they mention increasing Martian CO2 by amounts a hundredfold of what Earth has that would increase temperatures 10 degrees or so. So a 50 PPM increase on Earth isn't going to make any discernable difference at all.
it's the shape of a hockeystick (sharp bend) in a plot that is derived from long term temperature observations and co2 concentrations in the atmosphere over time. If observed it was supposed to be logical consequence that a correlation between these two observations existed.
Obviously there was something fishy about the modells logic so that other people found, that the modell doesn't only deliver these hocky sticks for the case that the two examined values correlated but also if you use random numbers as an input.
This is quite embarassing for the guys who waved the hockeystick - but far from a proove that rising co2 partial pressures in the atmosphere are of no significance for the world's climate.
The relations between fossile fuel burning and the world's climate are not yet clear. But unquestioned is, that a rising CO2 level in a gas mixture similar to our atmophere leads to a higher degree of reflection of the ground's heat radiation. It acts like a rescue-blanket with a gold-layer.
If fossile fuel burning is not compensated by some mechanism yet to find, it was a way of elevating the worlds avarage temperature. It's a risk and hints show, that it is likely.
Today everything seems to be about deciding what's risky and what is of minor importance to mankind.
My Risks for the Existance of prospering Civilisations List:
1. Ahmedinedjad and the bearded guys promoting him.
2. extremism of any kind in countries with high levels of corruption and poverty
3. China, India, Brasilia and their agressive growth (it's a chance at the same time)
4. Diseases like AIDS and H5N1
5. Global Warming
6. A direct hit by a meteorite
what do you think ?
I love this. Even after breaking the hockey stick, the researcher doesn't grasp his own bias in the subject. What if the cooling was not a random fluctuation?
he's up a certain creek without certain equipment.
it's been more of a nutshell
ping
Libertarian ping.To be added or removed from my ping list freepmail me or post a message here
This is factual, but ont new. We've kicked this around a few times before.
Because all the global warming 'experts' are safely hiding in their bomb shelters?
BTTT
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