Posted on 01/31/2006 9:17:46 AM PST by West Coast Conservative
Rafi Eitan suspects that Iran already has enough enriched uranium fissionable material to manufacture at least one or two atom bombs of the Hiroshima type. "Otherwise Iranian President Ahmadinejad would not have dared come out with his declaration that Israel should be wiped off the map," repeating it in various versions. His efforts at denying the Holocaust in which six million Jews were slaughtered prove that there is method in Ahmadinejad's madness. "Don't treat him like a madman," Chief of General Staff Dan Halutz recently cautioned.
Eitan's assessment of the situation is especially important because of his extensive intelligence experience in Israel's struggle for its existence, even before its establishment in 1948. Eitan was among those that laid the operational foundations for the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and the Mossad.
He is credited with numerous successes above and beyond the fact that he headed the team that apprehended Adolf Eichmann in Buenos Aires in May 1960 and brought him to justice in Jerusalem. He served as Menachem Begin's special adviser on the war on terror. He was involved in the secret planning and implementation of the attack on the Iraqi nuclear reactor in June 1981.
Eitan failed in 1985 when the United States arrested Jonathan Pollard, an American navy intelligence analyst, for spying for Israel. Eitan was forced to resign after taking responsibility for running Pollard as an Israeli agent in the United States. It emerged at that time that Eitan had stood at the head of an Israeli intelligence agency known as the Office of Scientific Relations, LAKAM by its Hebrew acronym.
EITAN, CURRENTLY a private businessman who is close to 80 years old, is not only still sharp, quick and curious, but also takes a strong interest in the dangers posed to Israel. And so he came this week to the Herzliya Conference to hear the lectures and meet with colleagues from other countries.
Eitan told me: "I am convinced that the Iranians already have at least one or two nuclear devices. They have been operating centrifuges for a number of years now, they have natural uranium, and who on earth believes the Iranians when they say that they have closed down one facility or another? You would have to be an idiot or terribly na ve to believe them."
Eitan says that this view was bolstered by conversations he held with various experts from abroad who came to the Herzliya Conference - that Iran already has a an atom bomb. What should concern not only Israel but Europe too, continues Eitan, is the fact that the Iranians have acquired cruise missiles with a 3,000-kilometer range. They tried to purchase nine missiles of this kind in Ukraine from the arsenal of the former Soviet Union, but Russia thwarted part of the deal and Iran received three or four such missiles.
"In an argument with colleagues from abroad," noted Rafi Eitan, "the question was whether Iran's current president is a sort of new Hitler or merely an international manipulator. Too many experts have judged him in accordance with his actions and declarations as a kind of extremist Islamist Hitler."
The American administration of George W. Bush is entirely aware of the burgeoning Iranian nuclear danger. The question is whether the leading countries in Europe will wake up in time to the danger too. "The diplomatic struggle against the Iranian nuclear danger," warns Eitan, "must be an international one and it must come in time. The danger of nuclear weapons in the hands of Teheran is no less serious than when Saddam Hussein built the French Osirak nuclear reactor in Baghdad."
What worries Rafi Eitan is that the news coming from Teheran shows that President Ahmadinejad will not hesitate to take the most extreme measures, not unlike the methods used in the Third Reich, to put down any opposition against him. Iran has hundreds of thousands of young people who are opposed to the conceptual and cultural darkness that the fundamental Islamists are forcing on them. "Don't be surprised," Rafi Eitan told me, "if the Iranian president tries to forcibly and brutally eliminate this opposition."
Still need a means of delivery.
I don't doubt they have a bomb.
I mean, I could make a "little boy" bomb in my garage, given enough U-235.
A deliverable bomb is the issue. I suppose a bobtail truck would work.
If this is correct, we need to act as soon as possible...
Maybe they can find laying around some old ratty passenger 747 they don't really need
As soon as Elmo started shooting his mouth off on a daily basis I figured they probably had something already. Maybe not many, but enough to do damage.
My exact concern is that they did in fact obtain enough enriched material.
If it's enough for two, then we'll see a test by the rumored March 20th date and the other will have Jerusalem's or Tel Aviv's name on it.
It's a very black day if this is true. For the whole world.
A delivery truck perhaps?
Thru Mexico last month perhaps?
I was writing the President in 2003 begging him to finish off Iran.
It's a water heater, no it's a snow cone maker...
I could be wrong but haven't they tested missiles in recent years? I thought they already had the missiles but were working on the nukes.
What makes you think they will use missiles?
You can build a nuke bomb that fits into a briefcase that could level 10 city blocks and turn 100 more into a deathzone.
Someone set us up the bomb!
it's one thing to have a nuclear 'device', it's another to design one that can be attached to a missle.
Our first bombs were massive devices that took a heavy bomber to deliver just one. It was many years before we could design one that could be delivered by ICBM.
That said, Iran may be getting a lot of help on the missle part from rogue Paki, Russian, and NK scientists and may have a deliverable package ready soon.
Delivery is not going to be a problem long-term.
Say good bye to NYC, unless we go in destroy this program soon.
"As soon as Elmo started shooting his mouth off on a daily basis I figured they probably had something already. Maybe not many, but enough to do damage."
I figure Elmo saying he has a bomb is a nice way to get it into the security council for a year or two while Iran finishes buiding their bomb.
You ain't gonna level 10 city blocks with a nuke the size of a briefcase. Not gonna happen capin.
Maybe we will be treated with an Islamic blunder as has happened before when Ackmed hooked up the wrong wires on the detonator.
I wonder if a vaporized Ackmed will get any virgins?
Iran does have missiles that can deliver a warhead up to 2,000 miles. Of course, that does not mean that the warhead they may have developed would fit within that warhead.
Iran does have missiles that can deliver a warhead up to 2,000 miles. Of course, that does not mean that the warhead they may have developed would fit within that warhead.
FYI
"You can build a nuke bomb that fits into a briefcase that could level 10 city blocks and turn 100 more into a deathzone."
They don't have the shaped charge tech for the small fission trigger of such a portable device, unless Russia gave it up, and THAT I doubt they'd sell.
Possible, I suppose.
Popping a nuke at Europe might even get the Europeans to act. What, the Brits have around 400 warheads and the French several hundred as well. Correct? Together with Israel's and ours Iran would be reduced to dust for a zillion years.
The bad news, perhaps: No one goes near the Iranian oilfields for a LONG, LONG time, and who can say where all of that fall-out goes.
Thoughts?
The geography is very tricky here. 30% of the world's oil passes right through this exposed "jugular vein."
Bomb, have
Missiles, have
Evil intent, have
As with any Asian volcanic ash... It flies east... Eventually on the US...
MAIN SCREEN TURN ON!
On a distantly related note, St Augustine ash may be seen from Fairbanks tonight. 500 miles.
What makes you think our methods are secret? Think of all the spies that seem to be given free access to our nuclear facilities (thanks UC Berkeley!) And secrets made public wholesale by such as former Clinton officials like Hazel O'Leary! I imagine even countries like Monaco, Lichtenstein and Andorra have everything they need to build a nuclear warhead.
Pinotubo ash ended up in our atmosphere - In Virignia!
Pinotubo ash ended up in our atmosphere - In Virignia!
Yoda? Is that you?
If you knew about the ALL YOUR BASE thingy, you would understand...
it would be the last thing Iran ever remembers doing.
Rafi Eitan suspects that Iran already has enough enriched uranium fissionable material to manufacture at least one or two atom bombs of the Hiroshima type. "Otherwise Iranian President Ahmadinejad would not have dared come out with his declaration that Israel should be wiped off the map," repeating it in various versions.
----
Really bad logic ... there are plenty of antisemites out there who talk out of their hat.
I have no solution here, but your post has me thinking ie, worried.
Buddhist priest
Oh, well...I've got some good vodka.
What the hell.
Back in the `70s and `80s we knew exactly where any incoming missiles would be coming from. Today there could be an explosion and like 9-11 while we're dealing with that, we would be trying to figure out who was responsible.
It should be made clear to the Iranians, considering our history with them and their recent public utterances--and it should be expressed to them in a public manner: the UN might good for something for once--if there are any `mystery' nuclear detonations on our soil, we will retaliate against them not only immediately, but with an overwhelming response.
If that isn't enough to make sane Iranians rise up and overthrow the mad mullahs I don't know what would.
Iran with nuclear weapons is like a madman with an automatic rifle off `safe' in a crowded room.
Actually tactical nukes came very early with plutonium implosive device designs. Different designs to improve yield in hydrogen weapons was a continual process. Yield got to be so great that bomb design became overkill. The big city busters (MK41 25 Megton 10,000lb 3 stage weapon) that could level 50 square miles to flat earth were still in silos on early minute man and Titan II and II missiles. Accuracy and MERV technology could do more damage and take out more targets effectively (W88). We still have some of the large city busters in inventory as does Russia. Those are the truly scary weapons. Israel is keen on the Neutron type weapons so they don't pollute their small neighborhood.
I would anticipate that the only method Iran could deliver a weapon would have to be clandestinely, by sneaking it into the target and that would be cumbersome for their large and poorly designed but crude device that would be easy for a NEST team to find.
Don't bet your life on that.
Nukes emit neutrons, and neutrons are not electrically charged. That means they do not register on a geiger counter.
Devices to detect neutrons are unable to detect emissions unless the source is very close. The exact distance is classified, but the bottom line is that detecting a nuke is not that easy.
I have a lot of respect for Uri Dan. Articles by him should be paid attention to, imho. Thanks for posting this one.
bump
All Iran's base are belong to us... soon.
Korean buddhist monks wear gray robes.
True Lies?
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