Posted on 02/14/2006 5:00:06 AM PST by Judith Anne
THE ARRIVAL OF avian flu in Africa means that the bird epidemic is officially out of control. None of the methods used against it so far -- mass vaccination of poultry flocks in China, mass bird slaughter across Southeast Asia -- has prevented wild birds from spreading the H5N1 virus across the globe, to Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and Azerbaijan, as well as Siberia and Indonesia. The flu has probably been killing birds in Africa for many months and will probably not be stopped: In poor countries with weak or nonexistent veterinary controls, where chickens are the only source of protein and no compensation for farmers for loss of their livestock is likely, it will be impossible to enforce either mass vaccinations or mass slaughter
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Couple of typos in that post above, sorry all.
"In any case, ALL H5N1 is tracked on this continent and if LP H5N1 was a significant factor..."
Last paragraph, last line "...but that outbreak died out and didn't continue (although there were many other outbreaks in Vietnam)."
Again, sorry.
I clicked the frugal squirrel website and couldn't find any place to register, and it said one needed to log in to see anything. Correct me if I'm wrong, but any advice on registering? Looks interesting.
Thanks.
Soaring Patriot Squirrel
For a gift of $100 per year you can become a Soaring Patriot Squirrel. You can pick a tasteful graphic for use under your handle and will receive your Soaring Patriot Squirrel designation.
Benefits
* Membership will run through December 31, 2006.
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So much for my investigative abilities.
Pay $100? My squandering would help another squirrel be frugal. I think not.
I'll get back to you...
Semper Confused
The bird flu virus is only two mutations away from a form that can spread easily between people, sparking a pandemic in which millions could die, the UN bird flu chief said in an interview published in Portugal.
"Only two mutations are needed for it to become easily transmissible among humans," Dr David Nabarro, who heads the UN drive to contain the virus, told weekly newspaper Expresso.
"I wake up every morning thinking that today could be the day that I will see a report about a strange case of bird flu among humans," he said.
The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed tens of millions of birds since 2003 and there have been at least 165 confirmed cases of the strain spreading to humans, causing about 90 deaths, mostly in Asia.
The virus has spread from Asia to eastern Europe and Nigeria this week reported Africa's first known outbreak of the deadly strain of the disease.
Experts have long warned that the H5N1 virus could mutate into a form that is easily transmitted by humans and spark a global pandemic potentially killing millions.
Dr Nabarro said he has told governments around the world to prepare for the arrival of a human-to-human strain of the virus "as if this will happen tomorrow."
In 1918, an influenza pandemic that is believed to have originated in birds killed more than 40 million people around the world.
Subsequent pandemics in 1957 and 1968 had lower death rates but still caused widespread disruption.
Source:ABC http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1567776.htm
"But although meetings among international scientists will be held this summer, in the hopes that they will exchange information and speed up research, officials at the Department of Health and Human Services agree that they still "don't have visibility" about what everyone is doing. Furthermore, some U.S. companies say that they remain confused about this country's vaccine development program, which lacks a timeline, leadership and clear incentives for the private sector."
Great!
By Karin Strohecker BERLIN (Reuters) - Three more countries said on Tuesday they had detected cases of deadly bird flu in wild swans, with Germany, Iran and Austria the latest to find the virus that has killed 91 people worldwide.
Austria and Germany became the third and fourth European Union countries to report H5N1 bird flu, just three days after the bloc's first instances were confirmed by Italy and Greece.
Germany said its results came from initial tests. Both countries said samples of the dead birds had been sent to the EU's reference laboratory in Britain for confirmation.
Experts had said it was only a matter of time before the H5N1 strain dangerous to humans broke out in Iran, a wintering place for wildfowl that may be carriers. Neighboring Iraq, Azerbaijan and Turkey had already reported outbreaks.
The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus has killed at least 91 people in Asia and the Middle East, according to the World Health Organization.
Experts fear H5N1 may mutate into a form that can spread between people and cause a pandemic that could kill millions.
New cases of H5 bird flu were found in Romania, Europe's largest wetlands and a major migratory route for wild birds.
Tests were under way in Britain to see if the new samples were H5N1, of which Romania and neighbor Bulgaria have already had cases.
Germany said it would bring forward to February 17 a ban on keeping poultry outdoors, and Italy said police had impounded more than 80,000 chickens and 7,000 eggs from farms in the south that were not respecting health norms.
Semper Fi
Thanks. Let me know about the frugal squirrel thing when you find out, at your convenience.
Yup, I've been following the bird flu thing for quite some time, I take it seriously. I don't think it will be TEOTWAWKI, but it makes sense to think about it now and then and take precautions.
"Do I have to register?
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Thanks. I appreciate your help, I'm a techno dunce. Too old to change, but I do try to improve a bit.
I don't know whose "estimate" you are talking about, but I do take issue with your anthropomorphic assertion above, that any virus MUST trade pathogenicity for transmissibility. There is no guarantee of that, and as far as I know, no serious researcher is saying that there is.
This virus, like other highly lethal viruses, may gain the ability to transmit easily between humans and retain its deadly characteristics. What's one clue? Well, entire chicken flocks have died of it, in the thousands, seemingly overnight. Why didn't it trade pathogenicity for transmissibility in chickens or wild birds? After all, it's been around since 1996 or 1997. Are you saying it will only make that benign change when it happens to humans? I have never heard any report that it only kills one out of every ten chickens it infects. If that were the case, it wouldn't pose a problem and poultry growers in the US would have not have the present level of concern. They'd just let it sweep the flock, remove the 10% dead, and have 90% of their chickens now immune forever. Or intentionally give it to some chickens, and make a vaccine from the survivors to innoculate the rest. But as we know, that is not the case. And what can happen in chickens can happen in people. I am finished with this topic. If you wish to reassure yourself, be my guest. But on this, I disagree with you: I don't think there are any guarantees that it will happen the way you project. What you propose is a best case scenario, and that is not useful for planning, because of the obvious pitfalls.
It was never officially in control, trying to control influenza is like trying to control a volcano or a hurricane. You prepare for it that is all.
The media are so ignorant this is the normal etiology for the virus, one of the vectors, it's zoonotic and this occurs every flu season.
Then the media should start helping the efforts of the USA and other 1st world countries attempting to invest in infrastructure in these countries. Many people assume that foreign aid has no benefit for the USA this is one example of a mutual benefit.
Not 100% accurate actually there is definitely a benefit in specificity and efficacy if the vaccine is prepared form attenuated virus form such a variant and strain as you suggest. yet the science of vaccination is such that preparation is always proactive NOT reactive. Deploying a vaccine in the middle of a pandemic would be largely a wasted effort.
Far better to prepare a vaccine based on the current H5N1 variant and gain approx as much as 60-70% efficacy from the cross immune benefit.
Hi, Kelly! Dang, am I glad to see you!
Thanks for your remarks, I really appreciate the time you are taking to post them.
Please check my post 54 and let me know what you think...as far as I know, there is no reason an influenza virus must "trade" pathogenicity for transmissibility, yet that story is going around not only here but elsewhere on the internet.
People are *assuming* that by the time H5N1 has gained the h2h2h2h2h ability, it will not have the same death rate as it seems to now--over 50%. I don't see any reason to *assume* that.
I am reminded of the Artic eskimo village where 70% of the population died of H1N1 in 1918...
I agree this is not a model I am familiar with, generally speaking the highest virulence is evinced in the index case generation. As any virus optimizes itself to a new host as is the case with influenza being zoonotic, it becomes less virulent in every generation of it's lifecycle. This is not a result of evoloving a new or enhanced biological transmission mechanism
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