Skip to comments.Top Ten Most Endangered House Incumbents
Posted on 02/18/2006 4:34:05 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Writing in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg gives us his top ten list of most endangered House incumbents. All but one are Republicans.
Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN) Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL) Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL)
He says it was a tough list to compile. "Many of the incumbents on this list have proven their political mettle before, and in normal circumstances, they wouldnt be in all that much trouble. Others find themselves in the sort of hot water that should automatically sink them, but because of unique circumstances, they might somehow survive."
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalwire.com ...
Guess it's time for Shays to retire his polka-dot sundress and red pumps.
Only one demo-rat. Looks like the Republicans are d-o-o-o-omed!/sarc
This list is far from being unbiased, but it's not without merit, either.
I'd be surprised if DeLay was in trouble. All politics are local, and the perception in Texas is that Ronnie Earle is a political hack trying to sink DeLay.
Ronnie Earle is a political hack with a trophy defendant.
Even if all these Republicans were to lose, they still would have a slim majority. I suspect most of them will win though. Of course there probably are other GOP incumbents in trouble but there are several Demo seats that are not secure either. With a little luck and a great turnout effort like the one in 2004, the Republicans should hold the House. It will take a big effort and a lot of $$ though.
Ney is in better shape that people think considering the second-tier challengers he's getting.
I agree, but I am worried about the Senate and Judicial nominees.
Please Freepmail me if you want on or off my infrequent Connecticut ping list.
I will add that Gov Rell, though she is a "moderate" Republican, has huge approval ratings. She is a pretty strong bet to get elected to a full term. This should help Shays and Simmons here in CT. The coattail effect is not as strong as it has been in the past, but it can't hurt either. Both these guys managed to win in '04 despite Kerry's strong showing in the state. Both Shays and Simmons are moderate to liberal, unfortunately. I don't think I would shed many tears if they were to lose. But I suppose they are still preferable to any far left Democrats who would replace them. Losing these guys would mean two more votes for Speaker Pelosi! That's a scary thought.
Thank God the very honorable Rep. RON PAUL (R-TX) isn't on the list....although I bet the big-government neocons despise him even more than the Dims do.
Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH). Speaking for myself, Bob Ney is on his way out. Word has it, he's going to be indicted. His district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.
Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX). The lamestream media has unfairly but successfully turned DeLay into a symbol of all that is wrong with politics. Maybe they're exaggerating his vulnerability at home. He'd comfortably win a two-man race, but with a former GOP Congressman running as an Independent, the conservative vote could be split, which could enable the Democrat to win with a minority.
Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN). It's true, Hostettler has faced several very different Democrats and always come out on top. He's never faced one as popular as Evansville Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. A poll taken a few months back showed Ellsworth slightly ahead.
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA). Gerlach has won two elections by 51% to 49% in a district that was specifically designed to elect him. Wealthy Lois Murphy is running again in a more favorable political climate.
Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). Simmons has won two difficult reelections in a district that usually votes for Democrats. Ex-state Rep. Joe Courtney is running again. But Simmons has made no mistakes, so Courtney's chances hinge on a major Democrat victory, something which is not guaranteed.
Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM). The first female veteran to serve in Congress, Wilson represents a very marginal district. She has won by increasing margins over the years, but faces her toughest opponent yet in state Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Anything can happen.
Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT). RINO Shays was nearly defeated by Westport Mayor Diane Farrell last time, and she's back for a rematch. The disctrict is trending to the left politically, and while Shays is liberal on domestic issues, his strong support for Bush's foreign policy has angered the moonbat left, which is a presence in this area.
Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN). In 2004, the wealthy Sordel very narrowly unseated Democrat Baron Hill. Hill is seeking to make a comeback. But Hill had the advantages of incumbency last time, and won't this year.
Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL). Longtime Congressman Shaw has a following here going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale. He remains personally popular but his district is Democrat and becoming more so. State Senate Minority Leader Robert Klein is heavily funded.
Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL). Bean made national news in 2004 when she ousted a jaded, over-complacent incumbent. She is a top GOP target and will face a tough race against the winner of a crowded priamry.
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