Skip to comments.Top Ten Most Endangered House Incumbents
Posted on 02/18/2006 4:34:05 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Writing in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg gives us his top ten list of most endangered House incumbents. All but one are Republicans.
Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN) Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL) Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL)
He says it was a tough list to compile. "Many of the incumbents on this list have proven their political mettle before, and in normal circumstances, they wouldnt be in all that much trouble. Others find themselves in the sort of hot water that should automatically sink them, but because of unique circumstances, they might somehow survive."
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalwire.com ...
Guess it's time for Shays to retire his polka-dot sundress and red pumps.
Only one demo-rat. Looks like the Republicans are d-o-o-o-omed!/sarc
This list is far from being unbiased, but it's not without merit, either.
I'd be surprised if DeLay was in trouble. All politics are local, and the perception in Texas is that Ronnie Earle is a political hack trying to sink DeLay.
Ronnie Earle is a political hack with a trophy defendant.
Even if all these Republicans were to lose, they still would have a slim majority. I suspect most of them will win though. Of course there probably are other GOP incumbents in trouble but there are several Demo seats that are not secure either. With a little luck and a great turnout effort like the one in 2004, the Republicans should hold the House. It will take a big effort and a lot of $$ though.
Ney is in better shape that people think considering the second-tier challengers he's getting.
I agree, but I am worried about the Senate and Judicial nominees.
Please Freepmail me if you want on or off my infrequent Connecticut ping list.
I will add that Gov Rell, though she is a "moderate" Republican, has huge approval ratings. She is a pretty strong bet to get elected to a full term. This should help Shays and Simmons here in CT. The coattail effect is not as strong as it has been in the past, but it can't hurt either. Both these guys managed to win in '04 despite Kerry's strong showing in the state. Both Shays and Simmons are moderate to liberal, unfortunately. I don't think I would shed many tears if they were to lose. But I suppose they are still preferable to any far left Democrats who would replace them. Losing these guys would mean two more votes for Speaker Pelosi! That's a scary thought.
Thank God the very honorable Rep. RON PAUL (R-TX) isn't on the list....although I bet the big-government neocons despise him even more than the Dims do.
Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH). Speaking for myself, Bob Ney is on his way out. Word has it, he's going to be indicted. His district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.
Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX). The lamestream media has unfairly but successfully turned DeLay into a symbol of all that is wrong with politics. Maybe they're exaggerating his vulnerability at home. He'd comfortably win a two-man race, but with a former GOP Congressman running as an Independent, the conservative vote could be split, which could enable the Democrat to win with a minority.
Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN). It's true, Hostettler has faced several very different Democrats and always come out on top. He's never faced one as popular as Evansville Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. A poll taken a few months back showed Ellsworth slightly ahead.
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA). Gerlach has won two elections by 51% to 49% in a district that was specifically designed to elect him. Wealthy Lois Murphy is running again in a more favorable political climate.
Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). Simmons has won two difficult reelections in a district that usually votes for Democrats. Ex-state Rep. Joe Courtney is running again. But Simmons has made no mistakes, so Courtney's chances hinge on a major Democrat victory, something which is not guaranteed.
Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM). The first female veteran to serve in Congress, Wilson represents a very marginal district. She has won by increasing margins over the years, but faces her toughest opponent yet in state Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Anything can happen.
Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT). RINO Shays was nearly defeated by Westport Mayor Diane Farrell last time, and she's back for a rematch. The disctrict is trending to the left politically, and while Shays is liberal on domestic issues, his strong support for Bush's foreign policy has angered the moonbat left, which is a presence in this area.
Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN). In 2004, the wealthy Sordel very narrowly unseated Democrat Baron Hill. Hill is seeking to make a comeback. But Hill had the advantages of incumbency last time, and won't this year.
Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL). Longtime Congressman Shaw has a following here going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale. He remains personally popular but his district is Democrat and becoming more so. State Senate Minority Leader Robert Klein is heavily funded.
Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL). Bean made national news in 2004 when she ousted a jaded, over-complacent incumbent. She is a top GOP target and will face a tough race against the winner of a crowded priamry.
Is there a Rep. by the name of Sodrel, or are you sure this isn't a typo of Mark Souder? I've never heard of him before.
I hope Rep. Souder IS in trouble...he's one of the worst Drug Warriors we've had in Congress for a long time. He's a one-man Taliban; protect us from ourselves he can (NOT!).
Ronnie Earle isn't the problem for DeLay, Abramoff is.
I'm really worried we'll lose this seat. Current polls show him getting like 30 something percent of the vote, with like over 30 percent undecided. He could lose, but virtually no other R can.
Without his Majority Leader status, we don't really need DeLay. I wish he'd retire.
Thanx for the info, I appreciate that.
I agree with pretty much everything you said here.
I do think that both Shayes and Simmons will be helped by the fact that Rell will win in a huge landslide.
>Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). Simmons has won two difficult reelections in a district that usually votes for Democrats. Ex-state Rep. Joe Courtney is running again. But Simmons has made no mistakes, so Courtney's chances hinge on a major Democrat victory, something which is not guaranteed.
Rob Simmons is rock solid guy. Former Senior CIA field officer. Great guy.
texans don't vote for independants, they get like .0000001 percent of the vote here.
Oh, BTW, I think Sodrel will trouce Hill. Hill's really been a jackass since losing his seat, which he should never have had anyway.
And with few exceptions, incumbents who seek to reclaim old seats rarely win them back.
In the last election, DeLay against an unfunded no name only had 55% of the vote. His district also has had some demographic changes in the last few years that has made it less than secure.
It would be a shame to lose Clay Shaw. He's been a good representative for my district. It seems like he's in danger every cycle but still manages to pull out a win.
Shays wouldn't break my heart.
Doesn't Earl have a relative running against Delay?
So they are pulling a Ross Perot on Delay in Texas?
Looks that way, even though Perot and his Reform Party are yesterday's news.
Paul is always potentially in trouble in a primary. I don't mind keeping him around so that the Libertarians have a representative, but were he my Rep. I'd prefer someone more traditionally Conservative.
Souder is one of the best Reps. from Indiana, as an unapologetic supporter of the WOD, he's doing yeoman work and gets the BIG thumbs-up from me.
I would think Jim Mathews a Dem from Georgia would be on the list.
Naturally a Democratic strategist is not going to call attention to vulnerable Democrats...I'm surprised he included even one, but maybe felt he had to or else it would be captioned "the ten most vulnerable Republican incumbents."
His is the only GOP-held Florida district that Bush did not carry (and even then, he only lost it by 4 points), but even so, he still won in 2002 and 2004 with around 60% of the vote. This may just be hope on the Democrats' part more than anything else.
I think that's Jim Marshall. Yeah, it's interesting how he's not on the list. Former Rep. Mac Collins is his opponent.
This is idiotic. The world and the country is better under Republican leadership, I know I am. The economy is growing, employment is up and terrorism is under control.
There is noting to this survey, everyone knows how much better things are now.
Both those birds take $$$ from Soros.
True, but in 2004 Shaw's original opponent was a gay from Wilton Manors (Jim Stork) who withdrew late in the race for some mysterious reason. The local RATs replaced Stork with some sacrificial lamb party aparatchik who Shaw destroyed. It probably won't be as easy this time, and Shaw's health is an issue now too.
Oddly, Alcee Hastings has endorsed Shaw.
Biased is a fair description of the list. Where the hell are such Democrat incumbents occupying GOP-leaning (or are just generally troubled) in districts such as:
Vic Snyder (AR-3), far too liberal for his Little Rock seat.
John Salazar (CO-3), brother of liberal Sen. Ken, sitting in a GOP district because of a internecine GOP primary battle in '04 and poor showing of the party overall.
Allen Boyd (FL-2), now a GOP-leaning panhandle district.
Jim Marshall (GA-8), whom most reasonable individuals expect to lose former Rep. Mac Collins in a reconfigured heavily GOP district.
John Barrow (GA-12), expected to face a tight rematch against ex-Rep. Max Burns in a reconfigured GOP-leaning district.
Dennis Moore (KS-3), always in jeopardy due to it being a GOP district.
Ben Chandler (KY-6), sits in a GOP district that he won in a special over a weak GOP candidate.
Bill Jefferson (LA-2), yes, I'm putting him on there because with the current demographics of New Orleans and a potential criminal conviction, we could make a play for the seat.
Charlie Melancon (LA-3), sits in a GOP district that he won because of a brutal GOP battle. His GOP opponent, Craig Romero, has unified support.
Bennie Thompson (MS-2), a bit iffy, but he faces an ugly primary challenge, and if he emerges, and if our party ponies up the $$, Yvonne Brown could provide a potential upset.
Tim Bishop (NY-1), Steve Israel (NY-2), Carolyn McCarthy (NY-4), despite erosion of the Long Island GOP, a strong well-funded challenge to any of the 3 could put the seats back in our column where they were prior to the '90s.
Bob Etheridge (NC-2), sitting in a seat far too GOP for a liberal, but has faced no strong challenges since he upset the incumbent one-term GOPer in '96.
Brad Miller (NC-13), a gerrymandered seat for the 'Rats, but one still carried by Dubya. The GOP should find a decent candidate to take him on.
Earl Pomeroy (ND-At Large), a perennial target in a state that is heavily GOP but hasn't elected one in 26 years.
Darlene Hooley (OR-5), also a perennial target in a GOP district. Oregon remains overrepresented by Democrats at the federal House level.
John Murtha (PA-12), yes, THAT guy. His district may lean 'Rat, but it ain't of the pinko anti-American kind. Surely SOME well-funded GOP challenger can step up and take this disgusting terrorist-loving pig out of his seat. After all, this seat WAS GOP before he won it.
Tim Holden (PA-17), not a nut like Murtha, but a Republican should be occupying this seat.
John Spratt (SC-5), too liberal for his seat and has escaped strong challengers for a dozen years. No Democrat should still be holding any office in SC but the 6th (and hopefully we'll do something about that in the next 10 years, too).
Stephanie Herseth (SD-At Large), she's cute, but she's too liberal for the state and a Republican belongs here (thanks a lot, Bill Janklow).
Lincoln Davis (TN-4), more like Holden of PA, but this Republican district needs to send one (we're overrepresented with 'Rats due to gerrymandering in TN). Van Hilleary should be challenging him.
Bart Gordon (TN-6), the 'Rats protected him with gerrymandering, but he is a relic in an area that becomes more and more GOP by the day in the suburban counties around Nashville.
Chet Edwards (TX-17), a slick liberal 'Rat who needs to be bounced from this heavily GOP district.
Jim Matheson (UT-2), a Democrat -- in UTAH ? C'mon, guys !
Rick Boucher (VA-9), this district should be sending a Republican, and Boucher has been in office nearly a quarter-century, he needs to go.
Rick Larsen (WA-2), should be a district we can strongly challenge in a margin area with a well-funded candidate. It's been 12 years since we snatched back a seat for the GOP in WA state.
Alan Mollohan (WV-1), WV continues to move more and more towards the GOP, and a growing farm team for the party in the legislature spells trouble for long-term incumbents like Mollohan. State Del. Chris Wakim is challenging him this time, the first viable GOP challenger he has faced since his first election in 1982.
Nick Rahall (WV-3), although still historically 'Rat, he has been in for 30 years, and faces the same trouble at the grass roots that Mollohan does. He is likely facing the Cabell County (Huntington) Sheriff and Vietnam War Veteran Kim Wolfe.
David Obey (WI-7), in the name of Melvin Laird, this district ought be brought back after 37 years of this despicable turd to the GOP.
I would think Spratt in SC would be on the list... just to balance things out a bit with one more Democrat.
Shays, Shaw, and Simmons have been on the endangered list since they were first elected. I remember when Gwen Margolis was going to "trounce" Clay Shaw in 1992. He's still there and Gwen Margolis is merely another upset Jewish mother with a gay son. ;-)
As much as I despise Nancy Jonhson (R-CT) I think she has a tough battle against pro-abort Christopher Murphy (D). He's been running and getting landslides in CT state elections. He'll only cause more damage if he gets into the federal office.