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Top Ten Most Endangered House Incumbents
Teagan Goddard's Political Wire ^ | February 16, 2006 | Stuart Rothenberg

Posted on 02/18/2006 4:34:05 PM PST by Clintonfatigued

Writing in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg gives us his top ten list of most endangered House incumbents. All but one are Republicans.

Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN) Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL) Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL)

He says it was a tough list to compile. "Many of the incumbents on this list have proven their political mettle before, and in normal circumstances, they wouldn’t be in all that much trouble. Others find themselves in the sort of hot water that should automatically sink them, but because of unique circumstances, they might somehow survive."

(Excerpt) Read more at politicalwire.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 109th; 2006; bobney; clayshaw; delay; gerlach; heatherwilson; hostettler; melissabean; robsimmons; shays; sodrel
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To: William Creel

Is there a Rep. by the name of Sodrel, or are you sure this isn't a typo of Mark Souder? I've never heard of him before.

I hope Rep. Souder IS in trouble...he's one of the worst Drug Warriors we've had in Congress for a long time. He's a one-man Taliban; protect us from ourselves he can (NOT!).


21 posted on 02/18/2006 5:03:30 PM PST by Zerano
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To: Richard Kimball

Ronnie Earle isn't the problem for DeLay, Abramoff is.

I'm really worried we'll lose this seat. Current polls show him getting like 30 something percent of the vote, with like over 30 percent undecided. He could lose, but virtually no other R can.

Without his Majority Leader status, we don't really need DeLay. I wish he'd retire.



22 posted on 02/18/2006 5:05:15 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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Comment #23 Removed by Moderator

To: William Creel

Thanx for the info, I appreciate that.


24 posted on 02/18/2006 5:08:16 PM PST by Zerano
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To: Clintonfatigued

I agree with pretty much everything you said here.

I do think that both Shayes and Simmons will be helped by the fact that Rell will win in a huge landslide.


25 posted on 02/18/2006 5:09:49 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: Clintonfatigued

>Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). Simmons has won two difficult reelections in a district that usually votes for Democrats. Ex-state Rep. Joe Courtney is running again. But Simmons has made no mistakes, so Courtney's chances hinge on a major Democrat victory, something which is not guaranteed.

Rob Simmons is rock solid guy. Former Senior CIA field officer. Great guy.


26 posted on 02/18/2006 5:11:28 PM PST by MindBender26 (Having my own CAR-15 in RVN meant never having to say I was sorry....)
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To: Clintonfatigued

texans don't vote for independants, they get like .0000001 percent of the vote here.


27 posted on 02/18/2006 5:12:48 PM PST by conservative physics
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To: Clintonfatigued

Oh, BTW, I think Sodrel will trouce Hill. Hill's really been a jackass since losing his seat, which he should never have had anyway.

And with few exceptions, incumbents who seek to reclaim old seats rarely win them back.


28 posted on 02/18/2006 5:13:42 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: Richard Kimball

In the last election, DeLay against an unfunded no name only had 55% of the vote. His district also has had some demographic changes in the last few years that has made it less than secure.


29 posted on 02/18/2006 5:14:00 PM PST by RFT1
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To: Clintonfatigued

It would be a shame to lose Clay Shaw. He's been a good representative for my district. It seems like he's in danger every cycle but still manages to pull out a win.


30 posted on 02/18/2006 5:14:12 PM PST by clintonh8r (If you don't support the mission you don't support the troops. Period.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Shays wouldn't break my heart.


31 posted on 02/18/2006 5:18:44 PM PST by Arizona Carolyn
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To: Clintonfatigued

Doesn't Earl have a relative running against Delay?


32 posted on 02/18/2006 5:19:26 PM PST by Arizona Carolyn
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To: Clintonfatigued

So they are pulling a Ross Perot on Delay in Texas?


33 posted on 02/18/2006 5:21:59 PM PST by Arizona Carolyn
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To: Arizona Carolyn

Looks that way, even though Perot and his Reform Party are yesterday's news.


34 posted on 02/18/2006 5:26:33 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (Bob Taft for Impeachment)
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To: Zerano

Paul is always potentially in trouble in a primary. I don't mind keeping him around so that the Libertarians have a representative, but were he my Rep. I'd prefer someone more traditionally Conservative.


35 posted on 02/18/2006 5:28:41 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: Zerano

Souder is one of the best Reps. from Indiana, as an unapologetic supporter of the WOD, he's doing yeoman work and gets the BIG thumbs-up from me.


36 posted on 02/18/2006 5:34:36 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

I would think Jim Mathews a Dem from Georgia would be on the list.


37 posted on 02/18/2006 5:48:39 PM PST by bilhosty
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To: Clintonfatigued

Naturally a Democratic strategist is not going to call attention to vulnerable Democrats...I'm surprised he included even one, but maybe felt he had to or else it would be captioned "the ten most vulnerable Republican incumbents."


38 posted on 02/18/2006 5:48:40 PM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: clintonh8r

His is the only GOP-held Florida district that Bush did not carry (and even then, he only lost it by 4 points), but even so, he still won in 2002 and 2004 with around 60% of the vote. This may just be hope on the Democrats' part more than anything else.


39 posted on 02/18/2006 5:49:34 PM PST by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief
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To: bilhosty

I think that's Jim Marshall. Yeah, it's interesting how he's not on the list. Former Rep. Mac Collins is his opponent.


40 posted on 02/18/2006 5:50:28 PM PST by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief
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