Posted on 02/24/2006 8:55:29 AM PST by TheRightGuy
I can agree with that. I would agree that Judas MUST be stopped.
If Oberweis is within STRIKING distance of Judas on March 20th (say Titan's scenario with Topinka at 31%, Oberweis at 28%, and Brady at 13%, YES, I would switch my vote to Oberweis. I'm sure most Oberweis people would switch to Brady if the sitution were reversed (though I'm convinced Chicagolady would cast a write-in vote for Milkman even if he dropped and endorsed Brady and the polls read Brady 49%, Topinka-50%, Gidwitz-1%), and if Gitwitz were somehow dead even with Topinka, I might even cast a naucseious vote for him solely to watch her down to defeat.
The problem is that Oberweis is NOWHERE NEAR striking distance of Topinkajevich right now. Au contair, if the election was held today, you'd probably see Judas with 48%, Oberweis with 26%, and Brady with 18% or so.
(Combine Oberweis and Brady's votes into one and Judas still wins... Brady is no spoiler. Insetad, we need to get more sheeple to get off the Topinka bandwagon for ANYONE else to have a shot.)
Oberwis has very high negatives, most of Oberweis "support" is due soley to name recongition and his base from the last two elections. And perhaps some of you guys are saying Brady should drop out for "pragmatic" reasons and he can run again some other day, but you talk to many die hard Oberweis people (you know, the ones who supported him in 2002 and 2004 and had a hissy fit when the SCC didn't give him the nomination), and they think the world revolves around Jim Oberweis -- they'd be demand Dick Cheney himself "step aside" and call him a traitor for "taking conservative votes" if big Jim decided on a Presidnetial run in 2008 and was polling at 2%. Raunschenberger "stepped aside" for Oberweis when offered the Senate slot by the SCC in 2004, and now the Oberweis people demanded he "step sside" again for 2006. I have no doubt if Obie runs again in 2008 or 2010, his "base" of supporters will demand every conservative run to Jim and drop everyone else.
You guys say we have to be pragmatic and look at reality and the hand we're dealt with, well here's the facts: Oberweis is polling WORST against Blago in a hypothetical general election. (Blago is hoping we nominate Jim, he even hired state workers to tote the guy) Judas leads Blago, Gidwitz is dead even, Brady is in a statistical dead heat, Oberweis is trailing by six points (against the LEAST popular Dem governor int the country, mind you). Oberweis supports ridicule Brady citing a Raschenberger poll showing he's popular, yet the only poll the Oberweis people can cite where Oberweis has any traction at all is his OWN poll (even Kathuria was "electable" when he hired his own pollster... I was there when it happened)
I have repeatedly challenged Oberweis supporters to come up with just ONE example where a person who has lost three times and never held any elective office – then SUDDENLY wins the HIGHEST office in the state. It doesn't happen. In this respect, Oberweis supporters are no different than Ross Perot's legions of fans who proclaimed we needed a total outsider and he was the savior of America and simply would not accept the fact it was stastically impossible for his "third party" bid to win due to the electoral college being rigged for two parties.
If we manage to nominate a "conservative" who is unelectable in the general election, all we will do is empower the liberals to use Oberweis as "example" of why all conservatives are "unelectable". In short, we will get more liberals , which is exactly what we got when Judas "gave us" Alan Keyes and washed her hands of it.
For these reasons, the only way I can "get behind" Oberweis is if he musters enough strength to take out Judas. If he can't, the whole thing this fiscao is proved is that Oberweis is the "spoiler" who needed to sit out 2006 and let the Illinois GOP clean house will all-new candidates for a new era.
Okay. I read your post; please hear me out.
First, let me tell you that I worked "AGAINST" Oberweis in the prior two elections. I helped out Jim Durkin in the 2002 GOP Primary and beyond, all the way until the blowout loss to Dick Durbin. In 2004, to face Osama Obama, I openly supported Jack Ryan until it became a disaster, and then worked my butt off for a good man, Alan Keyes. It was to no avail.
Here, in 2006, I am supporting Oberweis. He has the endorsement of many Conservatives, including IFI (Illinois Family Institute's) Peter LaBarbera, an important person for pro-life, pro-family Conservatives. Oberweis is better on immigration than Brady, as he will not work to help illegal aliens, giving illegals tuition and acceptance of the Matricula card in Illinois. He stands every bit as good as Brady on the other important issues of Conservatism as well.
I said before that if Brady makes a sudden surge and pulls within striking distance of To-stink-a, I would go full force behind Brady. But the reality is that he just isn't gaining enough ground or rasing money. Oberweis, by the most recent two polls, is the only candidate within five points of Topinka. Gidwitz and Brady COMBINED do not have enough to beat Topinka in either poll. It sucks, but it is the reality.
I will happily support Brady if he closes the gap, HAPPILY. But all that many of us ask is what you yourself said in your post. If Oberweis is within striking distance of Topinka in the final days, and Brady hovers about where is is now or a mere couple of points higher, please return the favor. Brady backers and Oberweis backers - well - we really seek the same things.
And with the assault on The Freedom of Conscience Act, the Second Amendment, Pro-Family organizations and values, I agree with you: Judas must be stopped.
Hence, I join the pledge and ask you all to do the same:
Let's unite our votes come March 12st behind whichever candidate shows the BEST shot at defeating Judy B. Topinka, Brady or Oberweis.
It is SOOOOOOOO important that we do.
Last post should read "March 21st," sorry.
Judy is a known quantity in IL with a known base of voters. It is 40%. No more. No less.
60% will not vote for Toopinka in the primary regardless of who or how many opponents there are. Virtually all Gidwitz-Brady-Obie votes would stay in that circle if 1 or 2 of those 3 drop out.
The caveat to the above is the GOTV effort. Early voting has started. Stop and think. How many votes have already been cast for Toopinka by the organizations of Skip Savianno, Don Stephens and other forces of corruption? The fact is that the forces of corruption have the money and the experienced ground troops to exploit the early voting opportunity just as they have always benefitted from the absentee voting opportunity.
So, if Toopinka gets more than 40%, it is not because she is preferred by more than 40%. It is because the forces of corruption did a more effective GOTV than the forces of idealism.
Conservatives have to back Senator Bill Brady or outsider Jim Oberweis. Brady has a pro gun, pro life, pro family record and his drawback is illegal immigration because he supported in state tuition for illegals and I believe support metricular consular cards. He is also a downstater which is a plus.
Oberweis has been helping the Protect Marriage collect signitures for an advisory referendum on the November ballot, is the only candidate against illegal aliens. Has been more conservative in last 2 elections than his first run for senate in 2002.
Conservatives would be left with a Liberal Republican establishment Candidate or Socialist Dem in General. Only options would be keep Blago so Topinka would not disgrace Republicans the way George Ryan did, leave it blank and vote for neither, or Constitutional Party Candidate Randy Stufflebeam on ballot or as write in.
If Topinka wins primary, Randy sounds dandy.
Back in the 1982 elections, with contol of the US Senate hanging in the balance, all the Chicago TV stations switched to local coverage at the local 10pm news hour, and for the rest of the night the national picture was never even alluded to. We had to listen to Mike Royko ramble on about "holding back the vote" in the river wards for hour after hour. In that pre-internet, pre-cable era, I had to call my friend in Michigan to find out what had happened in the United States of America on election night!
Brady is the best choice with Jim Oberweis runner up
Randy Stufflebeam from the Constitution Party is running if Topinka, Gidwitz, or Andy Martin wins I would think. Andy Martin did give a great answer on the gun issue in last nights debate.
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