What happens to the world economy if 30% of the oil is cut off overnight?
Posted on 03/03/2006 3:13:47 PM PST by HardStarboard
Pre-empting Iran's ambitions TODAY'S COLUMNIST By Ilan Berman March 3, 2006
With some sort of showdown with Iran over its nuclear ambitions looming on the horizon, a divisive new foreign policy debate has sprung up in Washington. At issue is whether the United States can and should carry out a pre-emptive attack on Iran's numerous nuclear facilities.
Proponents of military action contend that the United States is capable of quickly and effectively neutralizing Iran's nuclear program through a few surgical aerial strikes. Detractors, meanwhile, say that such steps are not feasible, and if attempted will create catastrophic regional consequences.
Few doubt that the United States has the operational capability to carry out such a strike. But "pre-empting" Iran's nuclear program is likely to be an elaborate and costly affair -- and one with very real risks for the United States and its allies in the Middle East.
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
What happens to the world economy if 30% of the oil is cut off overnight?
What happens to the world economy if the m$$lahs get the nuke and blackmail their enemies (US and Israel)?
Better than nuclear war. Thats for sure.
What happens (I hope) is that China loses her oil and enjoys the same economic consequences as the rest of the world or worse. What happens to Russia, the real source of most of the problem and the author of some belated and half-hearted attempts to solve it, I do not know.
I have believed for over 3 years now that the response to 9/11 was to surround Iran in the end run.
Iran has been the worst offender of terrorism, creating hizbollah, Islamic Jihad and supporting each and every terrorist organization that has anything to do with Islam.
Jimmy Carter should have sent us in.
http://rescueattempt.tripod.com
Makes you wonder if Jimmy Carter ever had the guts to meet with the guys after the attempt. I doubt it.
I'm not saying the alternative is better. I'm just saying the choices are so bad, we will probably muddle along in hopes the apple cart is not overturned.
I do know that Ahmadinejad is insane, and his goal is to create the conditions of the apocolype.
bttt
bttt
Is that second pic the infamous "sunburn?"
A choke point for sure. However, there are ways to avoid such a development.
Jimmy Carter should go down in history with such notables as Arnold, Chamberlain, and Quisling. I.E., a byword.
Yes. Mach 3+ sea skimmer, with terminal jinking.
Such as?
I've seen academic (college level) interviews with Carter.
He thinks he handled the whole Iranian CF rather well.
Pipe lines.
How much crude oil can be transferred via pipelines if the Hormuz is cut? I mean, right away, with no disruptions.
The real target being the global economy.
Carter was like many others. He didn't have a clue about the thinking of radical Islamists. More than 50 years ago, Fulton Sheen pointed out that the Muslim world was in the grip of a fever. The "realists" insisted on ignoring their irrationality. They shared the secularists belief that people were bound to get less religious as time wore on. That's why Carter did not understand the significance of Sadat's murder.
Who says immediately? Immediately the first thing is to keep tankers out of the line of fire. The second thing to remember that sometimes you have to taker your lumps for awhile. I hope we have learned a few things from the oil embargo. I doubt that the Iranians could, except for a few months, have as much effect. It would be ruinous to some capitalists and I know that money is a coward. But, heck.
An econonmic suicide bomber...how appropriate.
If 30% of the world's oil is stopped, the futures market will go crazy, and there is a great risk of a systemic crash in global hedge funds and derivatives markets.
"Take your lumps for awhile" hardly begins to describe what would happen. A global economc crash resulting from cascading cross defaults is what could very well happen.
What significance are you assigning to it?
It is Ahmadinejad's stated professed ambition to trigger a global economic crash, leading to war, anarchy and apocolypse. His sect believes that it is their duty to create the conditions which will lead to the return of the mahdi. This sect is so crazy, it was suppressed during the rule of Ayatollah Khomeini. Now it is in charge of Iran.
The idea is, we provide opportunities for Russia's nuke industry in India, so that they can afford to abandon Iran....thus Iran is standing alone looking stupid with only China for cover in the UN.
I'm not real big on Loftus, but it's an intriguing idea.
Did he mention the Iranian Oil Bourse in the calculations?
That he was dealing with the sort of men who blow themselves up.
Any speculation on what would happen to Joe Six-Pack's mortgage?
Then one must be prepared to take over these operations, must't one?
Who's going to foreclose?
Joe Sixpack NEVER gets off the hook for his mortgage. After all of the economic debris is cleared away, new institutions purchase the old paper for pennies on the dollar. Then they send you a letter informing you where to resume sending your monthly checks.
Of course, if the dollar utterly collapses, and TSHTF, and all bets and deals are off....who knows?
Take over what operations?
How do markets communicate?
Argentina scenario?
I know that isn't fun, but what was described there wasn't total anarchy.
I dare say our uniquely Federalist system would shift decidedly Stateward and maintain order if nothing else.
Please don't go mystical on me. Can't you answer a simple question?
In an Argentina scenario, you still have to pay the mortgage. The banks and govt work hand in glove to maintain "stability" and make sure Joe Sixpack keeps paying.
I was in the Hurricane Floyd exodus, and I've never been prouder to be an American.
The same thing happened in reaction to 911. I don't believe it's wishful thinking to assume it's an American trait that isn't shared by most of the world.
Frankly, I think the kind of lawlessness in the Argentina story would be quickly self-corrected here.
Tes, Jimmy DID meet with them, (the hostages) several times; at Stewart AFB in New York when they flew into the US and then again when they had the parade for them in DC and at the White House.
He only met with the Delta Force and Marines and Air Force guys on the mission once. That I hear anyways.
Yes, he is absolutely insane. And with that in mind - he has stated that he will knock out Israel. Israel won't wait until they get hit with a nuke; they're not going to just sit around and wait for the end.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.