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Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle
www.nsf.gov ^ | March 6, 2006

Posted on 03/06/2006 3:34:07 PM PST by Esther Ruth

Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle

March 6, 2006

The next sunspot cycle will be 30 to 50 percent stronger than the last one, and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. The research results, funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA, were published on-line on March 3 in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Scientists now predict that the next cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5 percent of the visible surface of the Sun. The cycle is projected to reach its peak about 2012, one year later than indicated by alternative forecasting methods that rely on statistics.

By analyzing recent solar cycles, the scientists also hope to forecast sunspot activity two solar cycles, or 22 years, into the future. The team is planning in the next year to issue a forecast of Cycle 25, which will peak in the early 2020s.

The researchers expect that predicting the Sun's cycles years in advance will lead to more accurate plans for solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems.

The team has verified the information by using the relatively new technique of helioseismology, based in part on observations from NASA instruments. This technique tracks sound waves reverberating inside the Sun to reveal details about the interior, much as a doctor might use ultrasound to see inside a patient.

"Forecasting the solar cycle will help society anticipate solar storms," says Paul Bellaire, program director in NSF's division of atmospheric sciences, which funded the research. "Important discoveries are being made using helioseismology. Through this technique, we can image even the far side of the Sun."

The scientists gained additional confidence in the forecast by showing that the newly developed model could simulate the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98 percent accuracy.

"The model has demonstrated the necessary skill to be used as a forecasting tool," says NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati, the leader of the forecast team at NCAR's High Altitude Observatory. The team also includes NCAR scientists Peter Gilman and Guiliana de Toma.

"This is a significant breakthrough with important applications, especially for satellite-dependent societies," says Gilman.

The Sun goes through approximately 11-year cycles, from peak storm activity to quiet, and back again. Solar scientists have tracked these cycles without being able to predict their relative intensity or timing, says Dikpati.

Solar storms are linked to twisted magnetic fields that suddenly snap and release tremendous amounts of energy. They tend to occur near dark regions of concentrated magnetic fields, known as sunspots.

The NCAR computer model, known as the Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model, draws on research indicating that the evolution of sunspots is caused by a current of plasma, or electrified gas, that circulates between the Sun's equator and its poles over a period of 17 to 22 years.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012; forecast; porecast; scientists; sol; solar; sunspot
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1 posted on 03/06/2006 3:34:11 PM PST by Esther Ruth
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To: Esther Ruth

Bush's fault


2 posted on 03/06/2006 3:34:38 PM PST by mathprof
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To: Esther Ruth
"....known as the Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model"
3 posted on 03/06/2006 3:36:41 PM PST by stacytec (Nihilism, its whats for dinner)
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To: Esther Ruth

Year 2012 again.


4 posted on 03/06/2006 3:38:28 PM PST by ßuddaßudd (7 days - 7 ways Guero » with a floating, shifting, ever changing persona....)
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To: Esther Ruth

If only Bush would sign the Kyoto treaty. Those sun spots would not have a chance.


5 posted on 03/06/2006 3:42:05 PM PST by lormand (...the wrong person came out of the water that fateful night in Chappaquiddick)
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To: ßuddaßudd

Not to worry -- the sun has no effect on the weather.

/s


6 posted on 03/06/2006 3:44:17 PM PST by BenLurkin (O beautiful for patriot dream - that sees beyond the years)
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To: Esther Ruth
One of the largest flares ever recorded happened in November of 2003 (X28 on a scale that only goes from X1 to X9), and would have wrecked havoc all over the earth, if it wasn't for the dumb luck of the earth being exactly 90 degrees perpendicular to the blast when it happened. (270 degrees out of rotational phase)

6 November 2003
It has been announced that the massive solar X-ray flare which occurred on 4 November was, at best estimate, an X28. There is still a small chance this will be revised by a small amount, but it is now official: We have a new number 1 X-ray flare for the record books, the most powerful in recorded observational history.

7 posted on 03/06/2006 3:50:21 PM PST by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: Esther Ruth

Computer models for complex systems = GIGO.


8 posted on 03/06/2006 3:54:45 PM PST by thegreatbeast (Quid lucrum istic mihi est?)
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To: Esther Ruth

Amazing, global warming is now traveling 93 million miles through space, and affecting the Sun. Stunning, the power of global warming.


9 posted on 03/06/2006 4:17:53 PM PST by HisKingdomWillAbolishSinDeath (My Homeland Security: Isaiah 54:17 No weapon that is formed against thee shall prosper)
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To: ßuddaßudd

Those darned Mayans were republicans!!! We're all doomed!!!


10 posted on 03/06/2006 4:19:23 PM PST by brooklin
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To: xcamel
One of the largest flares ever recorded happened in November of 2003 (X28 on a scale that only goes from X1 to X9), and would have wrecked havoc all over the earth, if it wasn't for the dumb luck of the earth being exactly 90 degrees perpendicular to the blast when it happened. (270 degrees out of rotational phase)

Now there's a good case for wearing a tin foil sombrero...and poncho.

Did they say anything about what sort of damage would have been expected from a direct hit?

11 posted on 03/06/2006 4:36:21 PM PST by Max in Utah (muhammed-- Satan's stepson)
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To: Esther Ruth
and the solar cycle has no relation to global warming

 

add to that the fact that they've found global warming on Mars and you get my drift 

12 posted on 03/06/2006 4:38:51 PM PST by Phsstpok (There are lies, damned lies, statistics and presentation graphics, in descending order of truth)
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To: Max in Utah
I believe they discussed it for about an hour, and walked away, sweating, and just shaking their heads.

They were sure they didn't really want to know. Seriously.

13 posted on 03/06/2006 4:40:52 PM PST by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: Esther Ruth
HAMS won't be happy to learn of this.
14 posted on 03/06/2006 4:41:05 PM PST by fso301
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To: Esther Ruth
The cycle is projected to reach its peak about 2012, one year later than indicated by alternative forecasting methods that rely on statistics.

Coast to Coast will have a field day with this one.

15 posted on 03/06/2006 4:43:21 PM PST by mware (A teacher of geography.)
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To: brooklin
they were probably stuffed-suit rinos...
16 posted on 03/06/2006 4:44:16 PM PST by Battle Hymn of the Republic
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To: Phsstpok
Actually, this is great news and something scientifically testable. If there is a strong linkage between Sun spots and Earth temperatures, then this next cycle will prove it. Of course, this would also demonstrate that any observed "global warming" is primarily a result of our Sun's variability.

As an astronomer, discovering that our Sun is a variable star would not be that surprising.

17 posted on 03/06/2006 4:45:09 PM PST by Hunble
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To: fso301

>HAMS won't be happy to learn of this<

Sorry, but you're 180º out of phase. We'll love it -- maybe with F2 propagation all the way to 2 meters!


18 posted on 03/06/2006 5:29:56 PM PST by Hawthorn
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To: ßuddaßudd
Year 2012 again.

It does seem to keep showing up, doesn't it?

19 posted on 03/06/2006 5:32:15 PM PST by null and void (I nominate Sept 11th: "National Moderate Muslim Day of Tacit Approval". - Mr. Rational, paraphrased)
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To: null and void; ßuddaßudd; mware

What else is significant about 2012, don't listen to Coast to Coast?


20 posted on 03/06/2006 5:41:38 PM PST by Esther Ruth (I will bless them that bless thee, and curse him that curseth thee - Genesis 12:3)
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