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Victor Davis Hanson: The Great Stampede. Conservatives are losing their nerve on Iraq
nationalreview.com ^ | March 10, 2006 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 03/10/2006 5:26:23 AM PST by Tolik

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To: LS

I'm not quite sure what you're saying. Maybe I need more coffee.

We can't wait for 2 yrs for it to be "Iran's turn". The American people won't support the war in Iraq, or Afghanistan or anywhere else for that long. And in the meantime, our soldiers and innocent Iraqis are being killed by bombs and support coming from Iran. (not to mention hostility from the likes of alSadr who works for the regime and various other disruptive elements.) Iraq is infested with regime agents. If we don't destroy the nest, we don't stand a chance stopping the infestation.

The sooner we get rid of the Iranian regime, the sooner we get out of Iraq and Afghanistan. The longer we wait, the longer we have to fight and the more fed up the American people will become. (we'll be forced out of Iraq by public consensus and the Iranian regime will take over)

Also, getting rid of the regime erases the nuclear weapons threat.
It also helps the democratic movement in Lebanon, because Syria is dependent on Iran. The regime in Syria will collapse without Iran, and the Lebanese can delouse their country of Syrian agents and disrupters.

In order for President's Bush's plans and dreams of seeing peace and democracy in the Middle East to materialize, he MUST get rid of the Iranian regime. The sooner the better.
With all the threats coming from Iran, I think it's a good time for the President to stand up and say enough is enough. I'd like him to announce to the Iranian regime (and the American people) "You've been threatening us for a long time and we're not going to take it any more. You've got 48 hrs to resign and turn yourselves in, or we're taking you out. You've been brutalizing your own people for 27 yrs and you've been supporting the terrorists in Iraq which has cost American lives.
We're not going to stand by and watch you inprison and torture and kill your people any more. The Iranian people have spoken and they don't want you. They want to be free.
Come out or we're coming in to get you."
[Of course we'd have to be watching the borders, and have air traffic controllers over neighboring countries refuse entry into their air space, because they'll be a lot of sudden departing flights with very important people on board]


(I think if he went on American TV and listed the regime's involvement in terrorist acts over the past 27 yrs and their threats against us, especially those in the past 2 yrs or so, and told Americans that getting rid of the regime would also take care of the nuclear weapons threat, he'd have the support of the American people to take them out.)



51 posted on 03/10/2006 8:02:12 AM PST by nuconvert ([there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: Tolik

bump


52 posted on 03/10/2006 8:15:59 AM PST by Christian4Bush (I'd much rather hunt with Dick Cheney than ride with Ted Kennedy.)
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To: MNJohnnie

I don't listen to the talking heads. It was just my humble opinion.


53 posted on 03/10/2006 8:20:14 AM PST by MattinNJ (Allen/Pawlenty in 08-play the map.)
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To: Publius6961; Valin; ninenot; sittnick; kellynla
1. In the 1960's, 1,000 Americans died in automobile collisions each week. We did not flee the American highways and roadways. When this war is three and one half years old, we will probably have about as many deaths of American soldiers in Iraq as we used to suffer from auto collisions in THREE WEEKS.

2. Each American death in combat or at the hands of "insurgent" murderers/cowards is precious. Nonetheless, let us not get carried away over what has been a VERY low casualty war.

3. Greater love no man hath than that he should lay down his life for a friend.

4. If you doubt there are friends among the Iraqis, re-read Valin's #21, the letter from the Iraqi mayor in which he thanks American soldiers from his town (Ninewa?? Ninevah???) that was the heart of darkness under Al Qaeda's Al-Zarqawi.

54 posted on 03/10/2006 8:27:29 AM PST by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline of the Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Club)
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To: LS

AND, Iraq's new government hanged 13 of the SOB's this morning. May it hang many more.


55 posted on 03/10/2006 8:29:33 AM PST by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline of the Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Club)
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To: monday
Pollyanna, is that you?????

See #35.

56 posted on 03/10/2006 8:31:34 AM PST by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline of the Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Club)
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To: BlackElk

While I was in Nam in 69 we were losing four to five hundred a week!

And like you said, every life is precious but to liberate fifty million people in three years with less than three thousand casualties borders on miraculous! FDR & LBJ couldn't have dreamed of numbers like that!


57 posted on 03/10/2006 8:48:44 AM PST by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots. Semper Fi!)
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To: Tolik; Liz; Southack; Ernest_at_the_Beach; devolve; PhilDragoo

Thanks for posting this.

Most of us who voted for GW in the last election, over 62,000,000 of us, could care less what these conservative hot house orchids fed and groomed by the left wing media have to say. William F. Buckley, Niall Ferguson, Francis Fukuyama, George Will, to a name only a very few are the equivalent of the Black Over Seers on the Plantations before the civil war. They have a paycheck and perceived power only if the MSM elite owners continue to want them.

They are Dinosaurs created and established by the old MSM. They exist because the elite left wing created them, fed them and cared for them the past few decades. Their job was to appear on the Sunday TV talk shows to get battered by the liberals and to whine like tethered goats. They were paid to do this and got to set up magazines and sites for the real conservative newsletters for a nice steady income. They have as much power over America as Dan Rather and Tom Brokaw do.

These token conservative darlings of the media suffer everyday as the major fishwraps who carry their columns of whining, dispair and hatred of GW, lose more and more paid readers and subscribers. As the voters for GW abandon the Sunday talk roasts, their self perceived power and importance diminishes.

They hate the successes of GW even more than their liberal elite benefactors.


58 posted on 03/10/2006 8:59:03 AM PST by Grampa Dave (Visit Free Republic to enjoy shameless Schadenfreude as the lies of liberals are exposed!)
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To: kabar

Still, whatever number you use, the fact that everyone seems to forget is that there is a FINITE NUMBER, and it is rapidly decreasing. Further, all previous wars/insurgencies show that with each additional terroist death, it becomes even more difficult to win.


59 posted on 03/10/2006 9:03:01 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news)
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To: nuconvert
1) No matter what you think the "necessity" of taking out Iran is, the political reality is that we must, indeed, wait. The American public, even if Bush gave the speech of his life, is not going to support another war or an expanded war with Iran at this moment.

2) Given the failure to produce overwhelming evidence of WMDs in Iraq (I think the evidence is conclusive, but the "Average Joe" probably doesn't), we are NOT going to war with Iran short of a clear-cut, deliberate Iranian attack on the U.S. homeland, and that isn't going to happen. They would fire a missile at the Jews first, but no Mullah is that stupid as to attack us.

3) Militarily, unless we pull all our people out of Germany and Korea, we wouldn't have the military power to invade (much less hold) Iran and Iraq at this point.

This is exactly why Bush has not pushed this yet. You are NOT going to make a sufficient case to the American public (no matter how reasonable strategically) to invade Iran without a direct attack.

60 posted on 03/10/2006 9:07:59 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news)
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To: BlackElk

Hehehe. It could hang 130 as far as I'm concerned, but at least they don't hesitate to take care of terrorists in their possession and not put panties on their heads :)


61 posted on 03/10/2006 9:09:03 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news)
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To: potlatch; PhilDragoo; ntnychik



62 posted on 03/10/2006 9:14:02 AM PST by devolve ( (refresh-updated-graphix - Photobucket)
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To: LS

The Iranian people won't fight to save the regime.
The regular army won't fight to save the regime.
The rich mullahs in gov't will flee.
The regime will begin to crumble as soon as they realize that the U.S. means business and is coming in after them.

The political reality is, while we wait, people are being killed and the American public is getting fed up. The public will force the President to leave Iraq. That's the reality of waiting.

I think you're wrong about not being able to make a sufficient case to the American people. The Iranian regime has threatened us sufficiently enough to make the case that their threats are an act war against us.



63 posted on 03/10/2006 9:29:13 AM PST by nuconvert ([there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: LS
Still, whatever number you use, the fact that everyone seems to forget is that there is a FINITE NUMBER, and it is rapidly decreasing. Further, all previous wars/insurgencies show that with each additional terroist death, it becomes even more difficult to win.

Therein lies our difference of opinion. The number of terrorists/insurgents is not constant or finite. It can increase or decrease depending upon the circumstances. Israel has been fighting terrorists for decades and over generations. Insurgencies are not won by body counts, but by convincing the general populace it is in their interest not to support the insurgents.

Terrorist/insurgent wars can also succeed as was the case in Ireland against the British, which resulted in the formation of the Irish Free State. Chairman Mao was also successful.

64 posted on 03/10/2006 9:30:20 AM PST by kabar
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To: kabar
Yeah, but in the case of Britain, they won a true "guerilla war" in Malaya; and of the 11 major "insurrections/insurgencies/guerilla wars" of the 20th century, the government won eight. The Israelis are in a special predicament: they have NO indigenous people who support their presence/government, while the Iraqis have a majority.

When I say "finite number," I'm assuming we don't do something stupid and bomb a bunch of civilians who might, otherwise be on our side. Without such an incident, yes, the number is pretty finite.

As for the Brits in Ireland, a better counterfactual would be if a British-supported IRISH government (not northern Ireland) was facing a rebellion, and if it commanded a majority of the Irish population. In that case, England would have won.

65 posted on 03/10/2006 9:35:11 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news)
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To: nuconvert
Well, in conversations with "people on the street," I don't sense ANY enthusiasm for further military action after Iraq. None. I see none of it in any poll---and of course polls are flawed. In short, there is no real evidence that the American public sees Iran as a threat to take out at this moment.

As for who supports whom, I spoke to this Iranian just last week, and he maintains that while the cities are anti-government (esp. the students), the countryside is overwhelmingly pro-Mullah.

66 posted on 03/10/2006 9:37:06 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news)
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To: LS
The number you DON'T see---and it's almost impossible to find---is the number of terrorist/"insurgents" being killed.

It's difficult to find for a couple of reasons - first, because guerillas must attempt to hide casualties to create the illusion of victory, and second, because a profoundly hostile press sees the maintenance of this illusion as an expression of political power.

In fact, the entire idea of using Iraq as flypaper for international jihadists has proven very effective, and is in my opinion the critical weakness of the entire concept of jihad - they must fight under disadvantageous circumstances and the foot soldiers don't mind casualties. Unfortunately that's also a recipe for a protracted and disproportionately bloody conflict such as the one we see before us. The locals into which the guerillas blend take awhile to realize that the people ostensibly fighting the outsider are outsiders themselves without their interests at heart. This realization was only spottily achieved in Vietnam but is being achieved with astonishing success in Iraq.

In purely military terms the Iraq intervention itself has been an astonishing success - ground gained, objectives realized, and especially kill ratios. The fight, as in Vietnam, is in the political arena and the playing field is very slanted against success there. Bush will not be in office in 2009 but the current occupants of editorial boards will remain. These are not accountable to the voters, and only the market can correct them. And what I think we see is a struggle and a race between their ability to manipulate the market and the market's ability to manipulate them.

67 posted on 03/10/2006 9:43:09 AM PST by Billthedrill
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To: Billthedrill
Good points. In my forthcoming book, "America's Victories: Why the U.S. Wins Wars and Will Win the War on Terror," I liken your "flypaper" to "Ulundi in the Air," the strategy used by the U.S. in WW II to put bombers up as a way to force the Luftwaffe to come out and fight. Even if they had the temporary tactical advantage, as the Germans did for most of 1943, it was still a losing strategy for them because they could not replace pilots as fast as we could.

Likewise, the further down the jihadist ranks you go, you lose a) commitment (meaning more turncoats, delivering more information) and b) skill (de facto, the guys coming in late aren't as professional or skilled as those who were on the team at the beginning. Again, there is a certain inexorability of the math.

See "America's Victories" here: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1595230211/qid=1139423812/sr=1-18/ref=sr_1_18/104-7528812-1819936?s=books&v=glance&n=283155

68 posted on 03/10/2006 9:49:05 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news)
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To: Tolik
Anyone back in the United States can post facto write up a list of what ought to have been done in Iraq amid the heat and fire;

"We coulda done it better" cry the democrats when the war is popular.

"We woulda never done this" the democrats cry when the war is not popular.

69 posted on 03/10/2006 9:53:06 AM PST by oldbrowser (We must act today in order to preserve tomorrow......R.R)
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To: LS
Yeah, but in the case of Britain, they won a true "guerilla war" in Malaya; and of the 11 major "insurrections/insurgencies/guerilla wars" of the 20th century, the government won eight. The Israelis are in a special predicament: they have NO indigenous people who support their presence/government, while the Iraqis have a majority.

In 2004, Israeli Arab citizens made up about 19.5% of Israel's population. How do you consider them? I don't quite understand your point about the Iraqis. Whose presence are you referring to? Us?

When I say "finite number," I'm assuming we don't do something stupid and bomb a bunch of civilians who might, otherwise be on our side. Without such an incident, yes, the number is pretty finite.

Potential terrorists are being born every day in places like Palestine, Iran, Chechnya, etc.

As for the Brits in Ireland, a better counterfactual would be if a British-supported IRISH government (not northern Ireland) was facing a rebellion, and if it commanded a majority of the Irish population. In that case, England would have won.

No, it depends on what that IRISH government represented, how big a majority it commanded, and whether that majority had the same committment and intensity of the minority. If it was a puppet government like the Soviet-supported AFGHAN government in the 1980s, there would still be an insurgency and the IRISH PEOPLE would have triumphed.

Remember, only one-third of the people supported the American Revolution.

70 posted on 03/10/2006 10:02:16 AM PST by kabar
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To: kabar

With Iraq, I'm saying a majority (and likely a large majority) support us there. I'm not sure the same was true of the Arabs in Israel. Some, but I don't know how many.


71 posted on 03/10/2006 10:09:48 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news)
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To: LS

"there is no real evidence that the American public sees Iran as a threat to take out at this moment."

That's why the President needs to spell out to them exactly what the regime has threatened. When he's finished with the laundry list of threats they've made, including suicide bombers and explained what they've already done and continue to do every day to our troops and the Iraqi people and their own people, he'll have made the case.

I speak with and get news from Iranians too. The countryside is not overwhelmingly pro-mullah. It is more pro-mullah than the cities for sure (as the people are less educated and less sophisticated) But not overwhelmingly. They are poor and suffering the affects of a do-nothing regime too.


72 posted on 03/10/2006 10:35:59 AM PST by nuconvert ([there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: nuconvert
Well, we just disagree. Bush spent all the political capital he had on Iraq (rightly, in my view), but I don't see anyone in Congress coming to his side if he tries to take a case to the American public for any military action against Iran. I think he knows it too.

Meanwhile if the anti-government factions are one-tenth as powerful as you think, we won't have to do much.

73 posted on 03/10/2006 10:40:02 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news)
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To: LS

"Meanwhile if the anti-government factions are one-tenth as powerful as you think, we won't have to do much."

The numbers are certainly there. The power they need help with.
But I think you're right about "we won't have to do much". That's why I don't think his taking a stand of "get out or we're coming in" would result in a lengthy confrontation. Most of the mullahs and people with power would flee. (or try to)


74 posted on 03/10/2006 10:49:44 AM PST by nuconvert ([there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: Grampa Dave

Victor Davis Hanson is a Democrat.

VDH's Private Papers:Democratic Implosion
Democratic Implosion Can the party of the people be saved from itself? by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online. The idea that we are going to win this ...
www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson120905.html


75 posted on 03/10/2006 11:49:56 AM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Southack

"Victor Davis Hanson is a Democrat."

http://victorhanson.com/articles/dowd082705.html


author archives books calendar home



Printer Friendly

August 28, 2005
America’s Historian in Chief
by Alan W. Dowd
American Legion Magazine

This interview with Victor Davis Hanson by Alan Dowd of the Sagamore Institute for Policy Research was conducted on April 5, 2005 in Indianapolis, Indiana, and published in the September 2005 issue of the American Legion.
Victor Davis Hanson emerged from the relative obscurity of his academic post at Fresno State University on September 11, 2001, to become something akin to America’s “Historian-in-Chief.” Spurred by a legion of eager editors, Hanson has translated his expertise in classical military history to the war on terror. The result is some 300 essays (and counting) and a literal army of devotees. He notes with pride that he receives 10 to 20 supportive emails each week from U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

His primary platform for explaining this first war of the 21st century has been a decidedly modern mode of communication — the World Wide Web. With the dependability of Old Faithful, Hanson’s weekly commentaries have poured forth from the web-based daily of National Review, one of the forbears of the modern conservative movement. But Hanson reminds those who dismiss him as a Republican shill that he’s a registered Democrat. Underscoring the broad appeal of Hanson’s perspective, his essays on war have appeared in The New Republic, The New York Times, The American Legion, The Wall Street Journal, and City Journal.



76 posted on 03/10/2006 11:54:00 AM PST by Grampa Dave (Visit Free Republic to enjoy shameless Schadenfreude as the lies of liberals are exposed!)
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To: Tolik
"Only in Afghanistan and Iraq have we used force to dethrone authoritarians and birth constitutional government." Victor Davis Hanson

Victor Davis Hanson knows not of what he speaks.

The U.S. under President Bush used force to dethrone the Taliban from Afghanistan, Hussein from Iraq, and Charles Taylor from Liberia's Presidential Palace.

This use of force gave so much credibility to American foreign policy that Syria surrendered without a shot being fired; withdrawing its military from its illegal occupation of Lebanon.

Likewise, this use of force compelled Libya's Khadafy to surrender his extensive WMD program.

Haiti just underwent a "revolution" as well, though in no official part due to the U.S.

77 posted on 03/10/2006 11:55:41 AM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Grampa Dave
" But Hanson reminds those who dismiss him as a Republican shill that he’s a registered Democrat."

No doubt.

78 posted on 03/10/2006 12:00:43 PM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Tolik
Rarely do we hear that most postbellum efforts are long, messy, and necessary, much less that the essence of war is lapse and tragedy, with victory going only to those who in the end err the least and endure.
79 posted on 03/10/2006 9:46:22 PM PST by humint (...err the least and endure! --- VDH)
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To: nuconvert
Whereas I agree with you, do you really think this country, in its current ideological condition, will want to go to Iran?
80 posted on 03/11/2006 6:13:06 AM PST by carton253 (Al-Qa'eda are not the Viet Cong. If you exit, they'll follow. And Americans will die...)
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To: LS

Can you list the 11 major guerilla wars of the 20th Century and who ultimately prevailed? Thanks.


81 posted on 03/11/2006 7:30:49 AM PST by MinorityRepublican (everyone that doesn't like what America and President Bush has done for Iraq can all go to HELL)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Not off the top of my head, but they are in James F. Dunnigan's book, "Dirty Little Secrets of the Vietnam War." I can think of a few: Ceylon, Malaya, Greek Civil War, Vietnam, Spanish Basques (I think)---but I don't think they included our SUCCESSFUL conclusion of the Filipino Insurrection. Could be wrong.


82 posted on 03/13/2006 5:12:53 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news)
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