Bird Flu: "This thing Just Continues to March" (Interview w/Dr Michael Osterholm)

Minneapolis/St Paul City Pages ^ | March 22, 2006 | Steve Perry

[Gritty]

The CP interview: Dr. Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy talks about the flu that could bring the world to its knees.

(snip)

Of the 100+ human cases of H5N1 flu recorded, the vast majority have involved bird-to-human transmission, mostly among open-air poultry handlers in Asia. In addition, there are confirmed clusters in which it has passed person to person, though none of those has yet resulted in a breakout of the virus. One thing is clear, however: In its present form, H5N1 has killed over half of the people it's infected. The great flu pandemic of 1918-19, by contrast, killed about 5 percent of its victims.

Will it cross over? If it does, can it possibly remain as deadly? Though Osterholm notes that viruses usually do lose strength as they spread—it's not really in their own evolutionary interest to kill the majority of their hosts—he believes the only responsible answer on both counts is we don't know. But it's not just the characteristics of the virus that worry him.

One of the things that sets the former Minnesota state epidemiologist apart from other public health officials is his attention to the fate of the medical and social infrastructure in any serious contagious outbreak. With respect to bird flu, his outlook recapitulates in many ways what he had to say in his 2001 book about bioterrorism preparedness, Living Terrors much of the human toll in death, hysteria, and anarchy would be exacted not by infection but by the wide-scale breakdown of global supply chains and just-in-time delivery systems for vital goods and services. "I think Secretary Leavitt has been brutally honest in telling American communities, you're going to be on your own," says Osterholm. "I think he's right."

(snip)

[cripplecreek]

Tailgating will never be the same after the bumper dumper.

[butternut_squash_bisque]

Me neither. But I held my breath as long as I could...

[Altair333]

This article is concerning, especially the part about, of all the flu strains throughout history that have been genetically studied, H5N1 is most like the 1918 pandemic virus, but even more deadly.

That's not speculation- it's actual verified genetic structure. The 1918 virus mutated into human-to-human form and the fact that H5N1 is so similar is obviously not good news.

[spectre]

For those who haven't taken the time to read the entire article...here's a snip that might grab someone's attention:

"It doesn't matter if we invent vaccines if we can't manufacture them. This is a point I've tried to make over and over again. We also are approaching this from a very American-centric point of view, which in the end will be the death of us.

What's going to happen is, even if we could produce vaccines for our country in a timely manner, this global just-in-time economy we live in today is going to see the rest of the world shut down. Eighty percent of all the drugs we use in this country;all the childhood vaccines, everything;come from offshore.

Your cardio drugs, your cancer drugs, your diabetes drugs, 80 percent of the raw ingredients come from offshore. I could go through a whole laundry list of other critical and essential products and services that come from offshore. If the rest of the world experiences a pandemic, we're still screwed. That's what people don't understand. Somehow they have this attitude that we can wall ourselves off in the Eighth District of Minneapolis and be okay.

The bottom line is, it will be years, even at the accelerated rate we're going now, before we even get the right candidate-vaccines."...snip.

sw

[Paul Ross]

Bush's behavior has been extremely puzzling. We get these canned tunafish alerts, but he has done NOTHING to really prepare the country for an epidemic.

He seems to be responding more in crisis mode. Only addressing issues with money when its already basically too late. Lip service until its a crisis. Conspicuously squandering money then in response to liberal hectoring. New York after 9-11. Indonesia etc. after the Tsunami. New Orleans after Katrina.

He does have some good people though. Example:

Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, has said that the current flu vaccine shortage, underscores the need for "a comprehensive national strategy" to build up America's domestic flu shot manufacturing capacity.

"Our entire vaccine production system is fragile in this country,'' she said

When you study what the President has actually said about building a domestic capacity for vaccine production, and then what he has actually budgeted for, you are left with the conundrum.

It tends to confirm Bruce Bartlett's contention that the "policy formulation apparatus" in this White House is broken.

My cynical supposition has to be that this WH OMB, manifesting a doctrinnaire preference for "free trade" is undermining the President's own identified admissions of national need for domestic capacity. For them, its an outright conflict, one that they can resolve by 'sitting on it.'

[sneakers]

bump

[jigsaw]

It looks like some scientists don't think there will be any pandemic:   LINK

[CharlesWayneCT]

Wake me up when the millionth person has died from this.

[dynachrome]

"vast supplies "

Beer and pretzels.

[butternut_squash_bisque]

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmm, two of my favorite food groups, d.

[Paul Ross]

Bump! Thanks for posting this article. Osterholm is the "gold standard" in bio hazard planning:

[Gritty]

Wake me up when the millionth person has died from this.

I don't think there will be need to wake you up. You'll be wide awake, and why do I get the feeling you will be in full panic mode?

[mware]

I teach 7th grade health class. Since I am going over infectious diseases with them anyway. I am planning to spend a class period discussing it with them. I downloaded a Q&A from the CDC that should answer most of their questions for the moment.

[CharlesWayneCT]

6.8 billion people in the world, and I'm going to be panicking because a million of them got some flu?

Hardly.

In 1918, when we had NONE of the technilogical capabilities of today, had NO ability to communicate, had no real ability to transport goods and services, we lost 40 million people in the world to a flu.

This flu could be "as bad as" that flu. But we are much more capable of isolating and combating things today.

Anyway, I'm too busy panicking over the evil termites from New Orleans being shipped around the country in mulch :->

[Paul Ross]

Wake me up when the millionth person has died from this.

So, at least you admit to being asleep at your terminal when you're posting here!

You must never have even read the article. I knew it!

[<1/1,000,000th%]

It's terrible that all these birds are getting sick like this.

[Paul Ross]

In 1918, when we had NONE of the technilogical capabilities of today, had NO ability to communicate, had no real ability to transport goods and services, we lost 40 million people in the world to a flu.

Further proof. Your own statement contradicts your own conclusion in this matter.

Today we have countless more high-speed vectors for communicating the disease than there were in 1918. Cars. Busses. And especially passenger jets. Jumboized. And globalism has a whole passel of them going to and from the infected countries....right into the heart of the West.

[Wonder Warthog]

"Fox News was reporting this a.m. that studies show the Bird Flu virus is "unable to attach itself onto cells in the nasal passages of humans" (I paraphrase this part) and DIRET CONTRACT with the dander of an infected bird is necessary for transmission of the disease."

Don't get too optimistic. All it takes is mutation to allow that to happen, and then there will be "real problems".

[Gritty]

This flu could be "as bad as" that flu. But we are much more capable of isolating and combating things today

Just curious. Did you read the entire article? Osterholm addresses this. If so, what precisely do you disagree with?

BTW, I hadn't heard that about the NO termites, but I'm not surprised.

[CharlesWayneCT]

I confess, I didn't read the article. As I said, wake me up when people are really dying.