Fault East Of (SF) Bay Area 'Locked And Loaded'

The Guardian (UK) ^ | 3-25-2006 | Scott Lindlaw

[blam]

Fault East of Bay Area 'Locked and Loaded'

Saturday March 25, 2006 7:31 PM

By SCOTT LINDLAW

Associated Press Writer

HAYWARD, Calif. (AP) - New cracks appear in Elke DeMuynck's ceiling every few weeks, zigzagging across her living room, creeping toward the fireplace, veering down the wall. Month after month, year after year, she patches, paints and waits.

``It definitely lets you know your house is constantly shifting,'' DeMuynck said. So do the gate outside that swings uselessly 2 inches from its latch, the strange bulges in the street and the geology students who make pilgrimages to her cul-de-sac.

DeMuynck could throw her paint brush from her front stoop and hit the Hayward Fault, which geologists consider the most dangerous in the San Francisco Bay Area, if not the nation. Like others who live here, she gets by on a blend of denial, hope and humor.

It's the geologists, emergency planners and historians who seem to do most of the worrying, even in this year of heightened earthquake awareness for the 100th anniversary of San Francisco's Great Quake of April 18, 1906.

Several faults lurk beneath this region, including the San Andreas Fault on the west side of the Bay area, but geologists say the parallel Hayward on the Bay's east side is the most likely to snap next.

``It is locked and loaded and ready to fire at any time,'' said U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Tom Brocher.

The Hayward Fault runs through one of the country's most densely populated areas; experts say 2 million people live close enough to be strongly shaken by a big quake.

It slices the earth's crust along a 50-mile swath of suburbia east of San Francisco, from exclusive hilltop manors overlooking the bay to Hayward's humble flatlands...

[A message]

We had a 3.7 on the fault earlier in the week. It was shallow though and pretty much most of the east bay felt it.

Wife and I were in the office when it happened and our house did have a good sway but no damage.

[BenLurkin]

[bill1952]

Clearly the GOP is at fault here.

Its Bush's backup plan in case global warming doesn't destroy more cities.

[Redcloak]

They should pass a law banning earthquakes.

[Strategerist]

Actually the Rodgers Creek Fault (running north from San Pablo Bay through Santa Rosa, etc.) may be even more locked and loaded than the Hayward. It's basically due, based on paleoseismic evidence.

It's actually sort of an extension of the Hayward; there may be some sort of linkage between the two under San Pablo Bay; raising the possibility of both faults going at once, which would be an even more enormous disaster.

[Williams]

And we criticize New Orleans for building in a flood zone.

[trubluolyguy]

Any freepers in the area?


Move. Looks like San Franfreako might be getting the Sodom and Gomorrah treatment soon.

[kstewskis]

the Hayward Fault, which geologists consider the most dangerous in the San Francisco Bay Area, if not the nation. Like others who live here, she gets by on a blend of denial, hope and humor.

I see another disaster (and billions of Federal Funds) coming their way, if/when that fault ever blows.

The difference is, most Califorians are generally more prepared when it comes to earthquakes and emergency kits.

[Lester Moore]

They're waiting for what they KNOW is coming so they can whine about how somebody ought to give them money when it finally does come.

caveat emptor

[Williams]

"A ``virtual tour'' developed by the USGS shows the Hayward Fault slashing through identifiable structures, like DeMuynck's house, but she is resolved not to worry. ``There's dangers all around us, all the time, so if we thought about those dangers all the time, we wouldn't have anything else to think about,'' said DeMuynck, 62. ``We just come home and say, 'The house is still here.' We're OK for another day.''

Is it just me, or are people generally insane? ---

[ChildOfThe60s]

Gee, thanks. My daughter is probably moving to SF within the next year.

Of course, I am moving (out of Florida) into the area of the New Madrid Fault. Geez, guess I need a subscription to Bad Living Magazine.

Remember, when everything is out to get you, paranoid is just positive thinking. ;-)

[A message]

I have quake insurance and plans to get out of here sometime in the next 4 years.

[dfwgator]

Move. Looks like San Franfreako might be getting the Sodom and Gomorrah treatment soon.

Yeah, but they obviously don't need our military to bail them out.

[A message]

The thing is my wife is a native NoCal while I'm from the Midwest.

She is scared to death of tornadoes.

I think just about anywhere one lives there is a chance for doom and gloom.

[SMM48]

Yeah, but they obviously don't need our military to bail them out.

Somehow, it will be Bush's fault.

[Strategerist]

Rather long but very good article on what would likely happen after a Hayward quake...

http://www.eastbayexpress.com/issues/2005-02-23/news/feature.html

I've noticed a lot of people pretty oblivious to the fire threat. The Fire in the 1906 quake did much more damage than the quake itself.

Even if your house has been retrofitted, etc., for the shaking it's not going to save it from a massive firestorm. There's no conceivable way for any of the Bay Area fire departments to fight the fires, and given the right weather conditions you could get gigantic firestorms simply leveling entire cities.

[Stayingawayfromthedarkside]

Come here to Arizona. Not much doom and gloom here, except for the heat.

[Strategerist]

The chances are hardly equal around the country.

Tornadoes have very narrow damage swaths and the odds of an individual house even in the middle of Oklahoma being destroyed by a tornado in the next 100 years are miniscule.

The single Northridge quake in 1994, which wasn't all that big, did many times more dollar value damage alone than every tornado to ever hit the United States.

There's a reason nobody has to pay extra for special "tornado insurance" even in the Midwest. It's not that much of a loss threat.

[Philistone]

Felt it over here too (Daly City). A slight "thump" and then the bookshelves started swaying.

I'd rather have a lotta little ones than one BIG ONE!

[trubluolyguy]

Yeah, but they obviously don't need our military to bail them out.

---

Of course not, they wouldn't want to be seen as hypocrites now would they?

[noblejones]

>>
And we criticize New Orleans for building in a flood zone.
<<

Nah, that IS dumber. The French knew they were building in a sinking swamp, but were too drunk to care.

Early settlers in California didn't undertsand the fearsome potential of earthquakes. Even so, it is possible to build earthquake resistant structures -- but skyscrapers are probably really stupid ideas. California has also been retrofitting older structures quite actively since the seventies while folks in New Orleans hijacked federal dollars to build casinos and support centers for transsexuals.

Only time will tell, but the bay area is way overdue for centuries of high seismic activity.

[Robert A. Cook, PE]

Surprised they didn't consider the "locked" (jammed part) of the San Andreus fault just north of LA the most dangerous: It hasn't moved in a longer period of time, and has ALL of LA's water supply pipes and most of its power lines crossing it.

[Robert A. Cook, PE]

Pretty picture: How does it differ when a quake hits?

[A message]

Don't have to tell me.

34 years in the Midwest and I had never seen a tornado or the start of one. Lots of sirens yes but not the real thing.

But I'm sure those people in Xenia , Ohio whose city was leveled by a F5 tornado back on April 3rd, 1974 probably have a different take on those tornado chances.

As I said there is a chance pretty much anywhere one lives something unpleasant can come down the street.

[Robert A. Cook, PE]

Also, you can't really "move" a harbor from its surrounding lands that create the sheltered bay: SF and Oakland can't move, but NOLA has no particular reason to be in that particular part of the MIssip River, other than its closeness to Lake Pontchartrain. But, cross-shipping from NOLA to the Lake didn't work out like the French expected anyway.

Another French failure, like Haiti. And France. And the rest of their colonies in Africa.

[Plutarch]

The Hayward Fault runs right through California Memorial Stadium. Could make for some real Cal football excitement one day.

[bert]

....Any freepers in the area? ....

Synchro I think

[Strategerist]

The San Andreas itself is much further from densely populated areas than the Hayward, which runs right through them (though people are rapidly moving further out, closer to the San Andreas.)

Overall there's been an effort by geologists to reduce the focus on the "Big One" on the Southern San Andreas (and they really tend to avoid the term anymore, as it's misleading) and more on threats closer to populated areas...many of which, especially in Los Angeles, have been recently discovered.

The San Andreas is no longer the worst-case scenario.

[A message]

I'd rather have a lotta little ones than one BIG ONE!

Ditto!

[BW2221]

"Move. Looks like San Franfreako might be getting the Sodom and Gomorrah treatment soon."

Couldn't happen to a better place. Let's just hope Congress isn't is session when it happens and that Pelosi, Boxer and Feinstein are home.

[A message]

The difference is, most Califorians are generally more prepared when it comes to earthquakes and emergency kits.

We try to keep a weeks supply of water and plenty of canned goods on hand. As well as material to cook the food and other essentials.

The wife is very good about that and I give her compliments.

[A message]

Sure there is the heat. But I have a fellow worker living in Phoenix and he was commenting on all the dust that causes him allergies when it has not rained for a long while.

Here are some Arizona historical photographs depicting dust storms and monsoon conditions. Enjoy these pictures of Phoenix monsoon storms!

I'll pass but Thanks for the offer.

[AD from SpringBay]

Mama goverment better fire up her $2,000 plastic card machine.

[NormsRevenge]

We live at the south end of the Hayward, and just down the hills from the Calaveras, the San Andreas is quite a few miles west of here..

Bay Area Earthquake Probabilities

[NormsRevenge]

TOUR OF THE HAYWARD FAULT

http://www.mcs.csuhayward.edu/~shirschf/tour-1.html

Lots of maps and info

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/hayward/hf_maps.html

[Stayingawayfromthedarkside]

Yeah, those allergies get to me too. The wind can be dangerous around here once inwhile. Last summer we had a microburst knock down trees and power lines in a park right near our house. Our power was out for a few hours. We have a few isolated incidents for the most part. I love the winters here. I used to live in SoCal. So, I know what earthquakes feel like. I have never been faced with a tornado, They look really scary. I hope the big one doesn't hit anytime soon.

[musicman]

"The Hayward Fault runs right through California Memorial Stadium."

That would create a few "problems" durring a game.I hope that never happens.

But OTOH, IMHO if there is gonna be an earthquake in SF, I would rather see a 20ft wide fault split the left side of the batters box at Pac Bell Park's first home game of the 2006 season durring Barry Bonds first at bat.

....OK,....after rethinking it. I really WOULDN'T want a 20 ft wide fault split......Make it 30FT so Barry's head and ego will fit in it.....

[A message]

I love the winters here.

I understand winter, early spring and late fall can be down right pleasant there.

[Williams]

True, but the Mid Atlantic region doesn't have much in the way of tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc. Ditto New England?

[fremont_steve]

Does a quarter-mile from the Hayward count as "in the area?" Oddly, I found out just last week exactly where the fault runs. It's at the bottom of the hill I live on.

Let's just say that I keep my quake insurance up-to-date - though it has a $50K deductible!

[A message]

I'm thinking Boise, Boise, Idaho. I never hear of nor'easters or hurricanes or tornados and earthquakes hitting Boise.

But I'm sure that could change too when the Yellowstone super volcano erupts.

Or a dam breaks.

The nation's dam-safety program, for example, was created after the poorly designed Teton Dam in Idaho broke in 1976, killing 11 people and costing millions of dollars in damage.

[Robert A. Cook, PE]

34 years in the Midwest and I had never seen a tornado or the start of one. Lots of sirens yes but not the real thing.

And yet 21 years here in GA, and I've already had 6 tornadoes touch down (go over under, around and through) the immediate 5 miles radius of my house and business; and four hurricanes go rumbling overhead on their way north from the Gulf.

[Fatuncle]

Come here to Arizona. Not much doom and gloom here, except for the heat.

Good heavens! You're still posting in English?

[A message]

Oddly, I found out just last week exactly where the fault runs. It's at the bottom of the hill I live on.

Ruh roh

I can look out my front window and see this side of the hill that borders Lake Chabot. There's that pesky fault about 2 par 5's and 3 par 4's from where I live.

I figured the Good Lord had me move out here just to keep the place stable. Nobody worry while I'm here. When I leave I'll let you know because that is the time to start worrying.

[A message]

Note to self: Do not move near Robert A. Cook, PE. :-)

[Robert A. Cook, PE]

A quake damages the REGION around it's epicenter, which is USALLYunderneath the fault.

But ...... (dramatic pause)

The fault itself is almost always sloped underground, so the "fault" itself can't be considered a small "line" in the ground. The ground's surface will move, and make "break" into visible movement lines, but the shaking from an earthquake affects the whole region. Damage then, follows from the shaking and movement of the earth.

BUT ALSO .... (another dramatic pause) the earth's changing ground types and rocks types bend and focus the waves as they travel. So an area NEAR the epicenter 5-8 miles) might also get very little movement, while a region 14-15 miles away gets a focused and much greater movement. In a different direction, an area also 7 miles away gets a tremendous amount of movement and an area 14 miles away gets almost no movement.

So, further from the epicenter, USUALLY the lower the shaking and movement and the duration of the movement. Lower the magnitude of the quake, less the shaking and movement.

The Haywood fault is so close that you are in extreme likely of getting a major, very damaging reaction, from anything more than a 6.0. Even a 5.0 from an epicenter close to you will almost certainly crack and break things.

[sit-rep]

I would recommend expansion joints to solve her problem. Put a couple of these in, and instead of every year repairing the cracks, simply reset the expansion joint every 5... Simple solution to a major problem.

[dersepp]

While in the National Guard, I had access to reports that would stupefy the average person as to what is coming with quakes in the East Bay. For example:

Although on the other side of the bay, 8,000 casualties per square block in Chinatown are anticipated.

The only place I have ever seen this information in the mainstream media would be the fifth and ten year anniversary programs done by KRON TV.

[Robert A. Cook, PE]

I appreciate the update. Hadn't been tracking the funding and grants.

But, how much of the "defocusing" (away from the probably-not-immediate-future large earthquake in LA) is due to group-think and politically correct/let's get research money by looking at populated areas earthquakes?