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Fault East Of (SF) Bay Area 'Locked And Loaded'
The Guardian (UK) ^ | 3-25-2006 | Scott Lindlaw

Posted on 03/25/2006 12:14:22 PM PST by blam

Fault East of Bay Area 'Locked and Loaded'

Saturday March 25, 2006 7:31 PM

By SCOTT LINDLAW

Associated Press Writer

HAYWARD, Calif. (AP) - New cracks appear in Elke DeMuynck's ceiling every few weeks, zigzagging across her living room, creeping toward the fireplace, veering down the wall. Month after month, year after year, she patches, paints and waits.

``It definitely lets you know your house is constantly shifting,'' DeMuynck said. So do the gate outside that swings uselessly 2 inches from its latch, the strange bulges in the street and the geology students who make pilgrimages to her cul-de-sac.

DeMuynck could throw her paint brush from her front stoop and hit the Hayward Fault, which geologists consider the most dangerous in the San Francisco Bay Area, if not the nation. Like others who live here, she gets by on a blend of denial, hope and humor.

It's the geologists, emergency planners and historians who seem to do most of the worrying, even in this year of heightened earthquake awareness for the 100th anniversary of San Francisco's Great Quake of April 18, 1906.

Several faults lurk beneath this region, including the San Andreas Fault on the west side of the Bay area, but geologists say the parallel Hayward on the Bay's east side is the most likely to snap next.

``It is locked and loaded and ready to fire at any time,'' said U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Tom Brocher.

The Hayward Fault runs through one of the country's most densely populated areas; experts say 2 million people live close enough to be strongly shaken by a big quake.

It slices the earth's crust along a 50-mile swath of suburbia east of San Francisco, from exclusive hilltop manors overlooking the bay to Hayward's humble flatlands...

(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: area; bay; east; fault; loaded; locked; sf
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1 posted on 03/25/2006 12:14:23 PM PST by blam
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To: blam

We had a 3.7 on the fault earlier in the week. It was shallow though and pretty much most of the east bay felt it.

Wife and I were in the office when it happened and our house did have a good sway but no damage.


2 posted on 03/25/2006 12:19:35 PM PST by A message
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To: blam

3 posted on 03/25/2006 12:19:40 PM PST by BenLurkin (O beautiful for patriot dream - that sees beyond the years)
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To: blam

Clearly the GOP is at fault here.

Its Bush's backup plan in case global warming doesn't destroy more cities.


4 posted on 03/25/2006 12:21:33 PM PST by bill1952 ("All that we do is done with an eye towards something else.")
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To: blam

They should pass a law banning earthquakes.


5 posted on 03/25/2006 12:21:44 PM PST by Redcloak (WARNING: This post may be a violation of Federal law.)
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To: blam

Actually the Rodgers Creek Fault (running north from San Pablo Bay through Santa Rosa, etc.) may be even more locked and loaded than the Hayward. It's basically due, based on paleoseismic evidence.

It's actually sort of an extension of the Hayward; there may be some sort of linkage between the two under San Pablo Bay; raising the possibility of both faults going at once, which would be an even more enormous disaster.


6 posted on 03/25/2006 12:24:08 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: blam

And we criticize New Orleans for building in a flood zone.


7 posted on 03/25/2006 12:24:50 PM PST by Williams
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To: blam

Any freepers in the area?


Move. Looks like San Franfreako might be getting the Sodom and Gomorrah treatment soon.


8 posted on 03/25/2006 12:25:30 PM PST by trubluolyguy (Islam is a Cult of Death that has been infiltrated by a few non-violent believers.)
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To: blam
the Hayward Fault, which geologists consider the most dangerous in the San Francisco Bay Area, if not the nation. Like others who live here, she gets by on a blend of denial, hope and humor.

I see another disaster (and billions of Federal Funds) coming their way, if/when that fault ever blows.

The difference is, most Califorians are generally more prepared when it comes to earthquakes and emergency kits.

9 posted on 03/25/2006 12:26:43 PM PST by kstewskis ("I don't know what I know, but I know that it's big".....Jerry Fletcher)
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To: Williams

They're waiting for what they KNOW is coming so they can whine about how somebody ought to give them money when it finally does come.

caveat emptor


10 posted on 03/25/2006 12:27:22 PM PST by Lester Moore (The headwaters of the islamic river of death and hate originate in Saudi Arabia)
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To: blam
"A ``virtual tour'' developed by the USGS shows the Hayward Fault slashing through identifiable structures, like DeMuynck's house, but she is resolved not to worry. ``There's dangers all around us, all the time, so if we thought about those dangers all the time, we wouldn't have anything else to think about,'' said DeMuynck, 62. ``We just come home and say, 'The house is still here.' We're OK for another day.''

Is it just me, or are people generally insane? ---

11 posted on 03/25/2006 12:28:20 PM PST by Williams
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To: blam

Gee, thanks. My daughter is probably moving to SF within the next year.

Of course, I am moving (out of Florida) into the area of the New Madrid Fault. Geez, guess I need a subscription to Bad Living Magazine.

Remember, when everything is out to get you, paranoid is just positive thinking. ;-)


12 posted on 03/25/2006 12:29:06 PM PST by ChildOfThe60s
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To: Lester Moore

I have quake insurance and plans to get out of here sometime in the next 4 years.


13 posted on 03/25/2006 12:33:11 PM PST by A message
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To: trubluolyguy
Move. Looks like San Franfreako might be getting the Sodom and Gomorrah treatment soon.

Yeah, but they obviously don't need our military to bail them out.

14 posted on 03/25/2006 12:33:29 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Williams

The thing is my wife is a native NoCal while I'm from the Midwest.

She is scared to death of tornadoes.

I think just about anywhere one lives there is a chance for doom and gloom.


15 posted on 03/25/2006 12:36:57 PM PST by A message
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To: dfwgator
Yeah, but they obviously don't need our military to bail them out.

Somehow, it will be Bush's fault.

16 posted on 03/25/2006 12:38:29 PM PST by SMM48
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To: ChildOfThe60s

Rather long but very good article on what would likely happen after a Hayward quake...

http://www.eastbayexpress.com/issues/2005-02-23/news/feature.html

I've noticed a lot of people pretty oblivious to the fire threat. The Fire in the 1906 quake did much more damage than the quake itself.

Even if your house has been retrofitted, etc., for the shaking it's not going to save it from a massive firestorm. There's no conceivable way for any of the Bay Area fire departments to fight the fires, and given the right weather conditions you could get gigantic firestorms simply leveling entire cities.


17 posted on 03/25/2006 12:39:17 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: A message

Come here to Arizona. Not much doom and gloom here, except for the heat.


18 posted on 03/25/2006 12:40:53 PM PST by Stayingawayfromthedarkside
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To: A message

The chances are hardly equal around the country.

Tornadoes have very narrow damage swaths and the odds of an individual house even in the middle of Oklahoma being destroyed by a tornado in the next 100 years are miniscule.

The single Northridge quake in 1994, which wasn't all that big, did many times more dollar value damage alone than every tornado to ever hit the United States.

There's a reason nobody has to pay extra for special "tornado insurance" even in the Midwest. It's not that much of a loss threat.


19 posted on 03/25/2006 12:41:40 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: A message

Felt it over here too (Daly City). A slight "thump" and then the bookshelves started swaying.

I'd rather have a lotta little ones than one BIG ONE!


20 posted on 03/25/2006 12:43:19 PM PST by Philistone (Turning lead into gold...)
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To: dfwgator

Yeah, but they obviously don't need our military to bail them out.




Of course not, they wouldn't want to be seen as hypocrites now would they?


21 posted on 03/25/2006 12:46:38 PM PST by trubluolyguy (Islam is a Cult of Death that has been infiltrated by a few non-violent believers.)
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To: Williams

>>
And we criticize New Orleans for building in a flood zone.
<<

Nah, that IS dumber. The French knew they were building in a sinking swamp, but were too drunk to care.

Early settlers in California didn't undertsand the fearsome potential of earthquakes. Even so, it is possible to build earthquake resistant structures -- but skyscrapers are probably really stupid ideas. California has also been retrofitting older structures quite actively since the seventies while folks in New Orleans hijacked federal dollars to build casinos and support centers for transsexuals.

Only time will tell, but the bay area is way overdue for centuries of high seismic activity.


22 posted on 03/25/2006 12:47:04 PM PST by noblejones (Ben Stein for President, 2008.)
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To: blam
Surprised they didn't consider the "locked" (jammed part) of the San Andreus fault just north of LA the most dangerous: It hasn't moved in a longer period of time, and has ALL of LA's water supply pipes and most of its power lines crossing it.
23 posted on 03/25/2006 12:48:33 PM PST by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: BenLurkin

Pretty picture: How does it differ when a quake hits?


24 posted on 03/25/2006 12:49:47 PM PST by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: Strategerist
Don't have to tell me.

34 years in the Midwest and I had never seen a tornado or the start of one. Lots of sirens yes but not the real thing.

But I'm sure those people in Xenia , Ohio whose city was leveled by a F5 tornado back on April 3rd, 1974 probably have a different take on those tornado chances.

As I said there is a chance pretty much anywhere one lives something unpleasant can come down the street.
25 posted on 03/25/2006 12:50:48 PM PST by A message
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To: noblejones
Also, you can't really "move" a harbor from its surrounding lands that create the sheltered bay: SF and Oakland can't move, but NOLA has no particular reason to be in that particular part of the MIssip River, other than its closeness to Lake Pontchartrain. But, cross-shipping from NOLA to the Lake didn't work out like the French expected anyway.

Another French failure, like Haiti. And France. And the rest of their colonies in Africa.
26 posted on 03/25/2006 12:53:14 PM PST by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: blam
The Hayward Fault runs right through California Memorial Stadium. Could make for some real Cal football excitement one day.


27 posted on 03/25/2006 12:54:41 PM PST by Plutarch
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To: trubluolyguy

....Any freepers in the area? ....

Synchro I think


28 posted on 03/25/2006 12:55:53 PM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. Slay Pinch)
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE

The San Andreas itself is much further from densely populated areas than the Hayward, which runs right through them (though people are rapidly moving further out, closer to the San Andreas.)

Overall there's been an effort by geologists to reduce the focus on the "Big One" on the Southern San Andreas (and they really tend to avoid the term anymore, as it's misleading) and more on threats closer to populated areas...many of which, especially in Los Angeles, have been recently discovered.

The San Andreas is no longer the worst-case scenario.


29 posted on 03/25/2006 12:57:08 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: Philistone
I'd rather have a lotta little ones than one BIG ONE!

Ditto!

30 posted on 03/25/2006 12:58:36 PM PST by A message
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To: trubluolyguy
"Move. Looks like San Franfreako might be getting the Sodom and Gomorrah treatment soon."

Couldn't happen to a better place. Let's just hope Congress isn't is session when it happens and that Pelosi, Boxer and Feinstein are home.
31 posted on 03/25/2006 1:01:57 PM PST by BW2221
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To: kstewskis
The difference is, most Califorians are generally more prepared when it comes to earthquakes and emergency kits.

We try to keep a weeks supply of water and plenty of canned goods on hand. As well as material to cook the food and other essentials.

The wife is very good about that and I give her compliments.

32 posted on 03/25/2006 1:02:00 PM PST by A message
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To: Stayingawayfromthedarkside
Sure there is the heat. But I have a fellow worker living in Phoenix and he was commenting on all the dust that causes him allergies when it has not rained for a long while.

Here are some Arizona historical photographs depicting dust storms and monsoon conditions. Enjoy these pictures of Phoenix monsoon storms!

I'll pass but Thanks for the offer.

33 posted on 03/25/2006 1:07:59 PM PST by A message
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To: blam

Mama goverment better fire up her $2,000 plastic card machine.


34 posted on 03/25/2006 1:12:08 PM PST by AD from SpringBay (We have the government we allow and deserve.)
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To: blam
We live at the south end of the Hayward, and just down the hills from the Calaveras, the San Andreas is quite a few miles west of here..

Bay Area Earthquake Probabilities

35 posted on 03/25/2006 1:16:57 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Monthly Donor spoken Here. Go to ... https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: All

TOUR OF THE HAYWARD FAULT

http://www.mcs.csuhayward.edu/~shirschf/tour-1.html

Lots of maps and info

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/hayward/hf_maps.html


36 posted on 03/25/2006 1:19:45 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Monthly Donor spoken Here. Go to ... https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: A message

Yeah, those allergies get to me too. The wind can be dangerous around here once inwhile. Last summer we had a microburst knock down trees and power lines in a park right near our house. Our power was out for a few hours. We have a few isolated incidents for the most part. I love the winters here. I used to live in SoCal. So, I know what earthquakes feel like. I have never been faced with a tornado, They look really scary. I hope the big one doesn't hit anytime soon.


37 posted on 03/25/2006 1:23:38 PM PST by Stayingawayfromthedarkside
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To: Plutarch; All
"The Hayward Fault runs right through California Memorial Stadium."

That would create a few "problems" durring a game.I hope that never happens.

But OTOH, IMHO if there is gonna be an earthquake in SF, I would rather see a 20ft wide fault split the left side of the batters box at Pac Bell Park's first home game of the 2006 season durring Barry Bonds first at bat.

....OK,....after rethinking it. I really WOULDN'T want a 20 ft wide fault split......Make it 30FT so Barry's head and ego will fit in it.....

38 posted on 03/25/2006 1:30:22 PM PST by musicman
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To: Stayingawayfromthedarkside
I love the winters here.

I understand winter, early spring and late fall can be down right pleasant there.

39 posted on 03/25/2006 1:32:39 PM PST by A message
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To: A message

True, but the Mid Atlantic region doesn't have much in the way of tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc. Ditto New England?


40 posted on 03/25/2006 1:36:52 PM PST by Williams
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To: trubluolyguy
Does a quarter-mile from the Hayward count as "in the area?" Oddly, I found out just last week exactly where the fault runs. It's at the bottom of the hill I live on.

Let's just say that I keep my quake insurance up-to-date - though it has a $50K deductible!
41 posted on 03/25/2006 1:40:33 PM PST by fremont_steve (Statute of Limitations has expired..)
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To: Williams
I'm thinking Boise, Boise, Idaho. I never hear of nor'easters or hurricanes or tornados and earthquakes hitting Boise.

But I'm sure that could change too when the Yellowstone super volcano erupts.

Or a dam breaks.

The nation's dam-safety program, for example, was created after the poorly designed Teton Dam in Idaho broke in 1976, killing 11 people and costing millions of dollars in damage.

42 posted on 03/25/2006 1:44:19 PM PST by A message
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To: Cyber Liberty; Argh; Slip18; VRWCmember; A message
34 years in the Midwest and I had never seen a tornado or the start of one. Lots of sirens yes but not the real thing.

And yet 21 years here in GA, and I've already had 6 tornadoes touch down (go over under, around and through) the immediate 5 miles radius of my house and business; and four hurricanes go rumbling overhead on their way north from the Gulf.

43 posted on 03/25/2006 1:46:48 PM PST by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: Stayingawayfromthedarkside
Come here to Arizona. Not much doom and gloom here, except for the heat.

Good heavens! You're still posting in English?

44 posted on 03/25/2006 1:49:16 PM PST by Fatuncle (Of course I'm ignorant. I'm here to learn.)
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To: fremont_steve
Oddly, I found out just last week exactly where the fault runs. It's at the bottom of the hill I live on.

Ruh roh

I can look out my front window and see this side of the hill that borders Lake Chabot. There's that pesky fault about 2 par 5's and 3 par 4's from where I live.

I figured the Good Lord had me move out here just to keep the place stable. Nobody worry while I'm here. When I leave I'll let you know because that is the time to start worrying.

45 posted on 03/25/2006 1:50:32 PM PST by A message
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE

Note to self: Do not move near Robert A. Cook, PE. :-)


46 posted on 03/25/2006 1:53:02 PM PST by A message
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To: fremont_steve
A quake damages the REGION around it's epicenter, which is USALLYunderneath the fault.

But ...... (dramatic pause)

The fault itself is almost always sloped underground, so the "fault" itself can't be considered a small "line" in the ground. The ground's surface will move, and make "break" into visible movement lines, but the shaking from an earthquake affects the whole region. Damage then, follows from the shaking and movement of the earth.

BUT ALSO .... (another dramatic pause) the earth's changing ground types and rocks types bend and focus the waves as they travel. So an area NEAR the epicenter 5-8 miles) might also get very little movement, while a region 14-15 miles away gets a focused and much greater movement. In a different direction, an area also 7 miles away gets a tremendous amount of movement and an area 14 miles away gets almost no movement.

So, further from the epicenter, USUALLY the lower the shaking and movement and the duration of the movement. Lower the magnitude of the quake, less the shaking and movement.

The Haywood fault is so close that you are in extreme likely of getting a major, very damaging reaction, from anything more than a 6.0. Even a 5.0 from an epicenter close to you will almost certainly crack and break things.
47 posted on 03/25/2006 1:55:53 PM PST by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: blam
I would recommend expansion joints to solve her problem. Put a couple of these in, and instead of every year repairing the cracks, simply reset the expansion joint every 5... Simple solution to a major problem.


48 posted on 03/25/2006 1:57:52 PM PST by sit-rep (If you acquire, hit it again to verify...)
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To: blam
While in the National Guard, I had access to reports that would stupefy the average person as to what is coming with quakes in the East Bay. For example:

Although on the other side of the bay, 8,000 casualties per square block in Chinatown are anticipated.

The only place I have ever seen this information in the mainstream media would be the fifth and ten year anniversary programs done by KRON TV.

49 posted on 03/25/2006 1:58:01 PM PST by dersepp (I Am A Militia Of One)
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To: Strategerist

I appreciate the update. Hadn't been tracking the funding and grants.

But, how much of the "defocusing" (away from the probably-not-immediate-future large earthquake in LA) is due to group-think and politically correct/let's get research money by looking at populated areas earthquakes?


50 posted on 03/25/2006 2:01:03 PM PST by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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