Skip to comments.Israeli Election - Live Thread
Posted on 03/27/2006 9:12:18 PM PST by furquhart
I'm probably a little early, but I see on Fox that they're already showing the ritual votes of the leaders, etc.
It's just past 7am in Tel Aviv, I think. Polls won't close for a while.
Can't be that early, Zogby shows Kerry by double digits.
I figured it was later than that.
Well, pull, whatever.
My prediction - Kadmia first, Likud a surprise in second - perhaps a closer second than expected.
The anti-withdrawal position, the hard line, strikes me as a classic poor polling question.
Following the elections with interest.
OH Israelis news list ping leaderrssssssss
Greater Israel is out, the Wall is in, dealing with the Palestinians is out, a unilateral "resolution" is in, and this election really doesn't matter much. Isreal's realistic choices are basically plan A and plan A. Sure, bombing the nukes is Iran is an option, but that wasn't a campaign issue. In short, the election doesn't matter much, and thus the ennui.
Elections matter more often than they don't.
If Hamas forms a government, the greater victory for Israel will be a large defunding of the PA.
I'm an annexationist/explusionist. But, alas, it seems to be off the table these days.
Yep, but I revert to my post. Even Likud really doesn't want the West Bank. They want to play Clint Eastwood for a better deal. But there won't be any deal - none, nada. The Palestininas plan to await demographic developments.
Is this your way of saying that the guys the Freepers like most are going to have a poor showing?
ON THE NET...
ON THE NET...
"High alert: 85 terror warnings"
ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Defense establishment declares highest state of alert: Police, IDF prepare to thwart terror attacks, escort high-ranking officials to polling stations; authorities contending with 14 concrete terror warnings, 22,000 police officers to be deployed across nation
As Israelis prepare to cast their ballots Tuesday, police forces across the country have declared the highest state of alert, as the defense establishment is dealing with 85 terror warnings, 14 of them concrete.
Islamic Jihad is the prime culprit and intends to carry out attacks using the group's terror cells in the northern West Bank, officials
Probably, but it really doesn't matter whether the showing is good or bad. The policy options are just not there. Kadima will probably rather easily form a coalition for plan A, the same plan Likud would pursue sub silento, with more noise.
"I'm an annexationist/explusionist. But, alas, it seems to be off the table these days."
Since there's not much election news yet....
Do mean expanding beyond the West Bank? Beyond Gaza?
Works for me.
Well, ideally, I'd love to see a Greater Israel pushed into the Sinai, Syria, Jordan, etc, with the Moslem residents physically expelled.
But, at a minimum, I'd like to see Judea and Samaria annexed and the Moslems expelled.
Population transfer is hardly the same thing as extermination. Especially given the explusion of other Jewish communities in the Middle East and the reality of Islamic aggression.
I started ranting about getting a Wall about 4 years before Sharon on this very site. It seemed just so well, obvious. There was NO other way out of the box. And so it goes.
They may have to wait very long in that case according to a new demographics study indicating erroneous/fraudulent data on Pali population:
One good programme... in principle. I just cannot see neither political will for its implementation in any Israeli party worth of the name, nor conditions which could do it possible. Alas.
The UN factbook says the ferility in Gaza is the highest in the world, about 7, and around 5 or so on the West Bank. Maybe it is wrong, but I doubt if it is that wrong. Plus, Israel is going to get relatively rather few Jewish immigrants going forward. They have sucked that well rather dry.
Judea and Samaria are the Weat Bank.
From the press release:
The research team discovered:
Fewer births: PA Ministry of Health birth reports were substantially lower than the number predicted by the PBS.
Lower Fertility Rates: Palestinian fertility rates declined from the mid-90s through 2003, according to PA Ministry of Health, consistent with the trend occurring in other Middle Eastern Arab societies.
Net Emigration: Instead of the large immigration originally projected by the PA, the Territories experienced a steady net emigration averaging 10,000 a year.
Double Counting: 210,000 Jerusalem Arabs who are already counted in Israels population survey were included in the PA survey.
Inclusion of non-residents: Palestinians with IDs living abroad for over one year were included in the PA Census & Projection.
Internal migration: 150,000 PA Arabs who have legally relocated to Israel since 1993 are still counted by the PA..
I meant the "CIA" factbook. My error.
A link to a map and discussion of Judea and Samaria.
I absolutely agree with you, and I get villified for it on a daily basis. Most folks already know my vote (Kadima).
"I started ranting about getting a Wall about 4 years before Sharon on this very site. It seemed just so well, obvious. There was NO other way out of the box. And so it goes."
The first to have the idea...maybe when you posted about it -perhaps it got back to Sharon.
"Judea and Samaria are the Weat Bank."
Thank you for that.
Polls close at 10 PM local time. In the States you will start to see results Tuesday evening. Final numbers of mandates will be known by Wednesday or Thursday.
My expectation is Kadima winning, Labour second, Likud and Yisrael Beitenu will be very close for a distant third. The last Maagar Mohot poll showed Likud fourth (12 seats). Of course, Yisrael Beitenu is the right as well.
Great link - thanks.
Yep, and with no jobs and no big pay-out from the West, they might just want to be moving along. The main reason there are as many so-called Palestinians as there are was the presence of Israeli enterprise and jobs.
Prime Minister Sharon was a late adopter of separation. It really became a national discussion when Ehud Barak adopted it in his waning days in office. His famous fall, 2000 "Us over here, them over there" speech (which much of the left called racist) was the real beginning, though some (like Uzi Dayan) were talking about the idea even earlier.
Indeed, any such attempt would yield international intervention on the Palestinian side, much as we saw in Kosovo. That is not a prospect I would relish.
I'll be happy with keeping the major settlement blocs, the Jewish enclave in Hebron and the settlement in the Hebron hills (which Avi Dichter claimed Kadima would keep), and that we contain the Palestinians and minimize their ability to cause harm.
Well the US has "open" borders.
That hasn't worked terribly well, has it?
Well it is a mixed bag. But if the red meaters really get their wish (which they won't but whatever), where will they go? I think if I were one of them, somewhere in New Jersey might be just the ticket, with a plan to move maybe to Florida, with the ulimate destination, Beverly Hills. Ya, it is filled with Persian Jews these days, but whatever.
OK, take it all over, and go with the 59% that is no doubt as accurate as the speed of light.
"Ehud Barak adopted it in his waning days in office. His famous fall, 2000 "Us over here, them over there" speech"
I didnt know that - did it already include the idea of doing it without Palestinian cooperation?
---they might just want to be moving along.
Well the US has "open" borders.---
I had more in mind Egypt or Syria somplace.
I'm sure their Muslim brothers will take care of them. :^)
The Kahanists use in it in order to promote their favored policy, i.e. expulsion of the Arabs that remained in Israel after the War of Independence and the Six Day War.
The Peaceniks and doves use it-much more successfully-as a boogymen to scare Israeli voters into ceding ever-more territory-without any corresponding concessions from the Arabs-lest the Jewish State embrace "Apartheid."
Arab-Muslims use it in order to intimidate Israel, and make the success of their perpetual jihad seem like a fait accompli.
In other words, all sides distort and exploit statistical data in order to promote their particular political agenda.
Ya, the Wall and unilateralism is the only way. However, I doubt Sharon would split Jerusalem without some real payment in kind. The devil is in the details, and I dont know about this Olmert fellow.
Yes of course. I hope this finds you well.