Housing Bubble Trouble: Have We Been Living Beyond Our Means?

The Weekly Standard ^ | 4/10/2006 | Andrew Laperriere

[caver]

Oh yea, wouldn't we like to have been in on the ground floor of Las Vegas development.

[1234]

"...recommending you go out tomorrow and buy this tiny 400 sq. foot cottage in Provencetown, MA. "

am drooling, 'cept what's acreage?

[Hammerhead]

Where real estate appreciates in a give area also has to a lot to due where additional land is available and the corresponding commuting 'choke points'. DC is surrounded by these 'choke points'. As well as the southern penninsula down in Hampton Roads. That area as well will keep appreciating (PARTICULARILY in the Williamsburg area).

[ScottfromNJ]

"Are you kidding. I have been listening to ex-Texan advise since he started warning us of the housing bubble three years ago. In that time I lost out of 80% gains. ex-Texan has done a great service to the people of this forum by continually harping on this issue saving people from making money."

I remember reading those economic newsletters during the 1980's and 90's constantly predicting economic cataclysm. They were always advising peope to avoid the coming stock market and real estate crash, to sell all your stocks and real estate and buy gold. Now I realize the money I could've made if I hadn't followed their advice.

[Always Right]

But I have to give it to the gold bugs. They might have been dead wrong for 20 some years, but in the last 3-5 they have beat about everyone. The question is does gold have another year before it peters out.

[narby]

You put out some great propaganda in your advertising ex-T.

I just had to check your thread to see how you disguised your advertising link to your web site (you used the "Yada, Yada" gag this time)

The propaganda was the %47 percent drop in "Nevada land prices". It's good you provided the link, even though most won't check it out. What you left out of your propaganda was that the average price they're talking about was $376,200 per acre. Wow! We're not talking about land for your double-wide now here are we? Everyone with a brain knew that Las Vegas was speculated exceedingly high in the last 10 years. So it came down? So what? Everyone knew it would.

But the bottom line is your propaganda implies (as it has for three years now) that this is going to happen everywhere. Sorry. It won't.

By the way, anyone who pays attention to the doom-and-gloom web site you're advertising on JimRobs dime is a fool.

[narby]

They were always advising peope to avoid the coming stock market and real estate crash, to sell all your stocks and real estate and buy gold. Now I realize the money I could've made if I hadn't followed their advice.

Had I listened to ex-T's advice and dumped my real estate and rented three years ago, I would have lost the 200% gain on my property.

I understand a bit how markets work. What I don't understand is why ex-T is preaching his doom-and-gloom. Unless it really is what it appears to be, merely a method to attract a conversation on the net and get people to visit the web site he advertises in his comments (see the "Yada Yada" gag in his comment)

[Petronski]

Eeyore is back and guess what?

There's a housing bubble and it's worse than we've heard!


LOL

[narby]

Here's a little offset to your doom-and-gloom, so Freepers with a brain can make up their own mind. From this thread:

U.S. construction spending rose 0.8 percent in February, double expectations, as private residential spending surged 1.3 percent to a record high, offsetting a drop in public construction, a government report showed on Monday.

Construction spending climbed to a record seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.185 trillion in February from an upwardly revised $1.176 trillion in January, the Commerce Department said.

The increase was twice Wall Street forecasts for a 0.4 percent gain and followed an upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in January.

Private construction spending rose 1.2 percent in February to a record $931 billion, as residential spending surged 1.3 percent to a record $666 billion. Private non-residential spending rose 0.8 percent to $265 billion, the highest level since October 2001.

An increase in private construction spending on lodging, office, health care, religious, recreational and power facilities more than offset a decline in spending on construction of commercial, communication and manufacturing facilities, the report showed.

[Tijeras_Slim]

Have you seen me?

[Petronski]

Bubbleboy!

[guitfiddlist]

I get so bored listening to/reading diatribes from people who want to speechify about how there's a "housing bubble". Maybe there is, maybe there isn't, but why the speechifying about it? (which accomplishes what?) If you believe there's a "housing bubble", fine, put your money where your mouth is. ...If you have any investments in real estate, get out of them and into bonds. Whatever... Either way, there's nothing to talk about.

I am honestly and frankly appreciative of people like you that hold your attitudes. Why? Because I'm not ready for public realization of what I personally believe. I need you to prop up the insane belief that things can continue in the fashion that they have...in particular, unabated housing appreciation, while I build my positions in precious metals.

So in all brutal honesty, I thank you for your continuing belief in the status quo. Please continue to believe, and pour your money into real estate, stocks and bonds. Furthermore, mock us every chance you get, and encourage everybody to invest in this rapidly growing, fantastic, superbly managed economy of ours.

Muchas gracias...

[Ghost of Philip Marlowe]

The housing bubble, if there is one, would also be caused by illegal immigration. Many of the illegals work in construction. Rush had a construction worker call in to his show and lay out some of the numbers. The cheap laborers result in a cheaper cost of construction and a cheaper house. Once this supply of cheap labor is cut back, the cost of houses will go up, people will buy fewer, the price of houses will drop, some of the value of houses will be lost.

It's just like agriculture. If the going American rate for a head of lettuce should be 2 or 3 dollars more but it is kept artificially low because of an illegal labor pool, then we are living in an artificial economy.

It is inevitable that we all wake up to sticker shock one day. Either by the illegal labor pool being restricted, or that pool realizing they have cornered a market and created a dependency and then incrementing their rates.

[redgolum]

Very interesting, but also political. There is a big rush to pop the bubble before November, so the dems can hang it around Bush.

[Serenissima Venezia]

I don't see houses as being particularly cheap, inspite of the illegal labor. It's not as if house prices have taken a dip when the businesses illegally hired cheaper labor. They've taken the profit and passed on the cost of their illegals (hospital, schools, welfare, food stamps, etc) to the taxpayers.

[finnman69]

great source for Housing Bubble articles, reports and analysis.

scroll to the bottom for the article links
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

[finnman69]

I suspect that this issue -- and not cheap labor -- is the primary reason why this country insists on allowing a flood of illegal immigrants to pour across the border every year. A massive population increase is the single most effective means of propping up an inflated housing market during a period of rising interest rates.

illegal immigrants earn enough to afford $300,000 homes?

[Hammerhead]

as in the late 80s/early 90s the mega priced homes will come down somewhat BUT the middle/low income homes will continue to appreciate (but not at the insane rate they now are) or worst case remain stagnate for awhile then accelerate again (again, not at the previous rate). No housing bubble burst. Just letting a little air out - catching its breath.

[ex-Texan]

Hot Air is leaking rapidly in La La Land. Median prices have fallen about $ 20k + in the past year. Inventory is near all time highs. Wait until interest rates reset on all those ARM loans from 2.5% (or less) to 7.3% APR. Average house payments will go up from about $ 1,250 to $ 3,650 based on loan amounts of $ 600k.

Clickity Click Click

[silverleaf]

An acquaintance in Arlington VA listed her fixer-upper home last week for $399K and had offers up to $405K as of today, less than a week later.

BTW, depending on "average" price comparisons such as for a piece of land last year and this year, is meaningless unless it is the identical piece of land. A few high price sales or a few low price sales can totally skew the "averages" for any period of time you choose.

Furthermore, I believe statistics show only 50% of property owners have any mortgage on their property. A property held free and clear is pretty immune from panic regarding any "bubbling" effect that pushes prices down when the rise over the past 5 years alone has been stratospheric.

Now, rent......that is on the rise here (DC metro area). I welcome any panicked bubbler to jump out of buying a home and rent mine and pay off my mortgage instead of their own!