TX 22: Replacing DeLay on Ballot May Take Months

CQPolitics ^ | 4/4/06 | Greg Giroux

[LdSentinal]

Embattled Texas Republican Tom DeLay’s decision to give up his House re-election bid — and soon to resign from Congress — has many Republicans sizing up their chances in the newly open suburban Houston district DeLay has represented for more than 20 years.

But these prospective successors don’t know precisely when the 22nd District seat will be vacated by DeLay, or how exactly it will be filled.

And it is not only Republicans who face uncertainty in the wake of DeLay’s stunning announcement late Monday.

Democrat Nick Lampson, himself a former House member, entered the race to combat the controversial and scandal-plagued 11-term incumbent. Now he must re-calibrate his campaign in the Republican-leaning 22nd District to a new GOP opponent — whose identity may not be certain for weeks, or maybe even months.

There is no shortage of complexity caused by the fact that DeLay decided to quit the race and his seat only after winning a March 7 primary with 62 percent of the vote over three Republican opponents.

In videotaped comments to constituents aired Tuesday morning, DeLay said he will resign sometime before mid-June, though the precise date will depend on the congressional schedule.

A vacancy would trigger the scheduling of a special election by Republican Gov. Rick Perry. He has the option of setting a “emergency” special election as soon as five weeks after DeLay’s resignation becomes effective.

Or Perry could decide to slate a special election to coincide with the regularly scheduled Nov. 7 general election — in which the candidates presently are DeLay and Lampson. That appears unlikely, though.

Under Texas law, DeLay will need to literally renounce his residency in the state in order to remove his name from the ballot and allow the Republican Party to choose a replacement nominee.

Specifically, the law would allow DeLay to relinquish the GOP nomination if he is declared “ineligible” — that is, if there are “some facts indicating that he was ineligible for the office that were conclusively established in another public record,” said Trey Trainor, general counsel to Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, a Republican.

DeLay plans to disqualify himself by abandoning his hometown of Sugar Land and establishing a condominium he owns in the Washington suburb of Alexandria, Va. as his primary residence. Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution says that “no person shall be a representative .. who shall not, when elected, be an inhabitant of that state in which he shall be chosen.”

Trainor said that “any public record that could show that he’s no longer a resident of the state of Texas would probably suffice.”

Acting Without DeLay: Once DeLay is removed from the ballot, his replacement would be chosen by a committee of four Republican Party officials — one from each of the counties partly included in the 22nd.

Jon Taylor, a political scientist at the University of St. Thomas in Houston, said that he expects Republican officials will coalesce behind one candidate.

The early GOP front-runner appears to be Sugar Land Mayor David G. Wallace, who has long eyed higher office. He is regarded as articulate and telegenic, and his hometown also is the the second most populous jurisdiction in the 22nd District. Wallace also could parlay personal wealth to advantage in an abbreviated election.

Tom Campbell, an environmental lawyer who took 30 percent and finished second to DeLay in last month’s GOP primary, also plans to run.

“We are already up and running,” Campbell told CQPolitics.com. “I still have our [campaign] headquarters and we have our campaign organization in place, and we’ve just gotten to the point where we are moving forward efficiently.”

Campbell noted that he received about 10,000 votes in last month’s primary, compared to about 3,500 votes that Wallace received in winning re-election as mayor in 2004.

Also in the mix is former Republican Rep. Steve Stockman (1995-97) — though he is now more interested in running as a Republican in a special election than in continuing his planned campaign as an independent candidate in the November election.

Stockman said an independent campaign was a “moot point,” because his strategy all along was to position himself as an alternative to DeLay and Lampson — who Stockman expected would wage a bloody campaign that would have voters looking for another candidate.

“If I do run, I’ll probably do so as a Republican in the special election,” Stockman said. “But I’m looking at it and trying to get a feel for it.”

Another Republican who is interested in the race is Harris County Judge Robert Eckels, who served with DeLay in the Texas House and who has considered running for Congress before. Eckels, whose duties are akin to those of a county executive, oversaw the emergency response to hurricanes Katrina and Rita last year in the heavily populated county that includes Houston.

“The biggest issues for me are the frustrations I have felt with the policies and the regulations that the Congress and the administration put on local governments,” Eckels told CQPolitics.com.

GOP State Sen. Kyle Janek, who has taken himself out of consideration for the seat, said Eckels is “at the top of my list,” adding, “He’s smart, extremely capable, very soft-spoken but strong in his convictions.”

Eckels said that his decision about whether to run hinges mostly on the byzantine election process in the 22nd. He also was renominated for his current office in the Republican primary, so he would also have to take steps to remove his name from the ballot.

Other Republicans mentioned as potential candidates include state Reps. Charlie Howard and Robert Talton.

Takeover Hopefuls: Lampson, meanwhile, has not said whether he would run in a special election. As of mid-February, Lampson had $1.4 million cash on hand — an ample fund that will make him a serious candidate in a special or general election.

But Lampson collected that money when his opponent was DeLay, and he could face a more difficult race now that DeLay will not be on the ballot. “The biggest loser last night was Nick Lampson,” Taylor said.

Eric Thode, the Republican chairman in Fort Bend County, contends that Lampson’s money is going to “dry up” now that he is not running against DeLay.

Lampson counters, though, that voters “are ready for a change” even if DeLay himself will not be on the ballot.

“I am going to work hard to reach out to each and every one of them,” Lampson said in a statement. “I’m grateful for the support I have gotten so far, and my campaign is only getting stronger. We are going to win this race.”

Lampson served four House terms (1997-2005) in a 9th District mainly east of Houston that had a strong Democratic base. But a mid-decade redistricting plan engineered by DeLay thrust Lampson into a more heavily Republican 2nd District, where he lost in 2004 to GOP nominee Ted Poe.

CQPolitics.com rates the Texas 22 race as No Clear Favorite, but it will continue to follow the election process to determine if and when a rating change is warranted

[fieldmarshaldj]

*ping*

Looks like Stockman may opt to run as a Republican in the special (if it's held).

[Torie]

No surprise there. I think the plan is to have a special election, and then have the winner selected by the powers that be for the General. That would be my plan in any event. Unless of course a Dem wins the special. :)

[AntiGuv]

It's still rather confusing for me how the removal of DeLay from the ballot and his replacement is going to work, and with what legal authority. I wonder if there's going to be a lawsuit (that may even be inevitable). Anyhow, for the time-being I've moved the seat to #24 on my rankings, the last of the Lean GOP.

[Torie]

That is about right, until the dust settles. Delay is one smart polician, and that is probably his take of the traps.

[AntiGuv]

PS. And, as an idle aside, it occurred to me that it'd be ironic if the Supreme Court ends up striking down the Texas districts and reinstating the 2002 maps, as might happen. In the off-chance that happens, DeLay would have little problem holding his old district, and might want to run after all. However, if so, he won't be able to as he'll be a Virginia resident.

[Torie]

I think Delay was headed to defeat in any event. But that is just my opinion. It is in part based on certain assumptions about ensuing publicity.

[Torie]

By the way, I think Kennedy is likely to upset the apple cart. If so, then it becomes for what election. I doubt it will be for 2006. And then it will be intersting if the Pubbies can do a new map for 2008, jettisoning the Bonilla district.

[AntiGuv]

You may well be right. If things get worse, then DeLay would probably have a tough time even with his old district. A lot of people around here have been unstating how tough it is for an indicted pol to win reelection. Even more partisan districts than this (or Ney's in Ohio) have flipped in the past over indictments.

And speaking of the off-chance the Supreme Court might strike down the Texas maps, that would also put the special election in a curious situation, as it would be for a seat that in effect would no longer exist.

[Torie]

It does give one a headache doesn't it?

[AntiGuv]

Personally, I think there's little doubt that if the Supreme Court strikes down the map then they will order new maps (or reinstatement of the old maps) for the 2006 elections. They had no problem doing just that in 1996's Bush v Vera ruling, and Justice Kennedy was in the majority on that one.

[Torie]

Ya, I know you do. I think not. But predicting Kennedy is like predicting when Yellowstone will blow out.

[Unmarked Package]

The most politically connected radio station in the local area of TX-22 (KSEV AM 700) interviewed a Republican party county chairman this afternoon who has studied the election laws.

A special election is thought to be very unlikely at this time. DeLay's replacement on the general election ballot in November will be decided by a committee of four electors representing the four counties that have precincts in TX-22. Each of the four electors is chosen from a caucus of precinct chairpersons that constitute TX-22 in a county. In the interview they said Harris County (Houston) has roughly 45 precincts in TX-22, Fort Bend County has roughly 35, while Brazoria and Galveston County have fewer precincts.

Therefore, around 100 people will decide who the Republican candidate is on the ballot and probably the next U.S. House Representative from TX-22. That is an awesome responsibility for a small group of people.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Why would the TX GOP do something as incredibly stupid as eliminating their sole Latino federal officeholder ? If they don't do something to INCREASE their numbers by creating Latino/GOP districts, they're going to slit their throats for the long run in TX. They need to follow the FL GOP's lead, where all the Hispanic federal officeholders are Republicans.

[Torie]

Bonilla's district will need to get more brown, and then he goes down, paticularly if it involves anything to do with Cuellar and Laredo.

[LdSentinal]

Is the process determining a place on the ballot or appointing soebody to replace DeLay in the House when Congress goes back in session (before the November election)? Thanks in advance.

[AntiGuv]

But, ya gotta admit it would make the punditry for this election a lot more interesting if the Texas maps get overturned.

[AntiGuv]

House members can never be appointed. They can only be elected. If there's no special election, the seat stays vacant until January.

[LdSentinal]

That's right. I should have remembered especially when there was a steady debate on the circumstances if a terrorist attack wiped out most of Congress.

[Unmarked Package]

"Is the process determining a place on the ballot or appointing somebody to replace DeLay in the House when Congress goes back in session (before the November election)?"

The process described is to replace DeLay on the November ballot only. It was the considered judgment of the Republican party county chairman interviewed that the TX-22 seat would remain vacant after DeLay resigns until the newly elected Rep. is sworn in next January.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

I think Delay was headed to defeat in any event.

Give me a break. He beat a bunch of other Republicans, who were hyped up by the media. What makes you think he would have lost to a Rat?

My opinion is that by resigning, DeLay removes an issue from the Dems in the mid-terms.

[fieldmarshaldj]

The last thing we need is an all-White GOP delegation in TX. If the maps are overturned, and we don't use that prime opportunity to create GOP districts for Hispanic candidates and move TX Hispanic voters into the GOP away from the plantation/slave party, our days as the majority party in that state after fighting 130 years to reclaim it will be short-lived, indeed. There are hopes we might be able to lure Cuellar to the GOP, since most of the hard-left moonbat 'Rat wing hate him.

[Theodore R.]

Predicting Kennedy is usually just expecting the liberal side to prevail. Where did Reagan "find" him? Didn't do his homework again

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Bonilla's district will need to get more brown, and then he goes down, paticularly if it involves anything to do with Cuellar and Laredo."

---

First of all, even if the Supreme Court rules that a 55% Hispanic district is "not Hispanic enough" to be considered "Hispanic-majority," they wouldn't strike down the 2003 redistricting map, since the 2003 plan would not have fewer Hispanic-majority districts than the prior plan (the new Austin-to-McAllen TX-25 is like 70% Hispanic). Second, even if they strike down the map, which they would do only if they absurdly held that a legislature can't redistrict when a court had previously drawn a map that decade (the courts didn't say squat when the Democrat legislature in Minnesota did just that in 1994), they would not necessarily prevent the November elections from taking place under the 2003 lines, since the primaries were already held (when a federal court struck down the 2002 PA plan because the districts didn't have equal enough population, they let the 2002 elections be held under the old map because it felt it was too late to start the primary process again). Third, if they order the map to be redrawn by the legislature, they could make the Bonilla district "browner" by including parts other parts of San Antonio, and avoiding adding the eastern part of Laredo to the district, which would result in Bonilla staying safe in his 23rd district (which would have still given Bush over 60% in 2004) while Cuellar would stay put in his 28th CD (and be less vulnerable to a challenge from a San Antonio Democrat such as Ciro Rodriguez). And fourth, even if the Court reinstates the 2002 map, the TX-23 would still have given President Bush 58% in 2000 and about 60% in 2004, and Cuellar would not be able to benefit from the aberrationally high turnout in Laredo he was able to ride in 2002 (thanks to Laredan Tony Sanchez's gubernatorial run) when Bonilla beat Cuellar 52%-47%. So if I were Henry Bonilla I would not be concerned one bit about how the Supreme Court may rule.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"A special election is thought to be very unlikely at this time."

---

If DeLay's replacement won't be selected for several more months, perhaps they *should* run a special election. Stockman said he would probably run as a Republican, and his presence as an independent on the general-election ballot is the only thing that makes Lampson potentially competitive against a non-DeLay Republican (otherwise Lampson would get trounced). And in a special election, nobody would get 50% and the top two finishers would go to a run-off, presumably Lampson and one of the Republicans; in a two-man race, Lampson can't win, and the winning Republican can then be nominated by the GOP as our nominee in the November general, where he or she would win big. The key is to get Stockman to abandon his independent candidacy for the November election and put all his effort into winning the special election, which would certainly be a stronger possibility for him than being designated as the GOP nominee in the absence of a special election.

[Unmarked Package]

"If DeLay's replacement won't be selected for several more months, perhaps they *should* run a special election."

You make some interesting points.

Rep. Tom DeLay was interviewed by Rush Limbaugh today. According to DeLay, Texas election law provides for special elections in May or November. The deadline to call a special election for May expires this coming weekend. Barring any emergency actions, a special election will not be called for the TX-22 seat.

A Republican party county chairman interviewed yesterday (I recall it was the Harris County, TX chairman) said he thought the replacement for DeLay on the November ballot may be decided within the next 30 days at the earliest.

[anymouse]

DeLay ping.