Posted on 04/07/2006 8:53:29 AM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHERN INDIANA CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1020 AM UNTIL 800 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 60 MILES EAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS TN VALLEY AHEAD OF DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER NERN KS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MDT TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT/LONG TRACK TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
We aren't expecting any severe weather here in Michigan but it sure feels like we could get it.
My definition of a PDS is HRC with PMS.
Things could get intresting here in Southern Ohio later on
8-D
Same here for tonight.
Thanks for posting this. I have family down there.
It just hasn't been letting up on those folks lately.
I'm sitting in the red box but not on the red blobs.
I am a weather nut, so I track these things.
Sure hope people take these watches seriously.
Heavenly Father, please protect the people who live in these areas.
Amen
Here in West Tennessee, we are supposed to get weather just like we did on Sunday night when over 20 people were killed.
Please pray that it will dissapate.
May I ask where in SE OH you are? I am from there and still have family there.
Yestedays winds burnt 27,000 acres of land.Fortunately.no fatalities.Everyone considers that not as bad as what could of happened.West Texas,Amarillo region.Wind is just as bad today as yesterday.Howlin like crazy.It is a sight when you see a 4by 8 3/4 inch sheet of plywood flying down the street like a frisbee!
Athens region.
You ?
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MS...NORTHERN AL...AND SOUTHERN TN...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY...TN VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE...DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
NEB...WITH BAND OF VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING AROUND BASE
OF LOW FROM TX/OK INTO AR/MO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR BY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WARM
SECTOR OF LOW WILL TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND HELP TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
...LA/MS/TN/AL/GA...
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON IN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS. THESE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MIDDLE TN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THIS REGION INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES /EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS AND 3KM SRH VALUES OF 250-400 M2/S2/. ASSUMING
MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THIS REGION AHEAD OF
CONVECTION...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ALSO APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES /MLCAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...MINIMAL CAP...AND LCL HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW 1KM/.
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL.
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWEST GA AND EASTERN TN BY
LATE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MO/ERN
AR/SRN IL/WRN KY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD VERY
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 60 KNOTS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF IND/KY/TN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...IL/IND/OH/PA...
SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MO INTO NORTHERN
OH/NORTHWESTERN PA BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT RESULTING IN AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY.
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN
THIS REGION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED AND JET STREAK
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CLUSTERS MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE.
..HART/CROSBIE.. 04/07/2006
The newest version:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY...TN VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND OH/TN
VALLEYS...
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATED DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS HAD BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE ESE....WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW REACHES THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS BY
12Z SATURDAY. BAND OF VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WITHIN BASE OF
LOW FROM TX/OK INTO LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NRN/NERN KS...WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SRN MO/NRN AR BY EVENING. MEANWHILE... A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER
ERN CANADA...CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC SWWD THROUGH SRN
LOWER MI TO SRN IA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SSE ACROSS THE NERN
STATES AND OH VALLEY REGION TODAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DELMARVA REGION TO THE TN VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. STRONG SLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW AND S OF COLD FRONT WILL TRANSPORT
RICH MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
..LA/MS/TN/AL/GA INTO MID MS/OH VALLEYS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGH RISK AREA FROM NRN MS/AL INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN...WITH THREAT
EXTENDING EWD INTO ERN TN/NRN GA BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES /MUCAPE OF 2000-3000
J/KG AND LCL HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW 1KM/ ACROSS NRN MS/NRN AL AND
WRN/MIDDLE TN.
RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS
ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OH VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO AID IN THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS FURTHER WEAKENING
CAP AS INDICATED PER SPECIAL 14Z JAN SOUNDING. PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD EWD INTO OH VALLEY AND EXISTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
ACROSS REST OF WARM SECTOR WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND INSOLATION
TO RESULT IN MUCAPE RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE MODERATE
AND HIGH RISK AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT /40-50 KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BENEATH 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS/ WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF
250-400 M2/S2/ FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FARTHER N...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE FROM IL/IND EWD
ACROSS OH/PA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRENGTHENING WIND
FIELDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SSEWD INTO THE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LINEAR...
BUT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN IL/IND INTO SRN OH WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATER.
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES IN THE WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INTO
PARTS OF SRN PA AND POTENTIALLY WRN MD/ERN WV AS MLCAPE VALUES REACH
AROUND 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY SHOULD APPROACH THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...BUT EWD SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT.
..PARTS OF KS/OK/WRN MO/NWRN AR
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH CENTRAL PLAINS LOW ATOP PROGGED
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN DESTABILIZING THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVER
First Tornado warning..for SE suburbs of Memphis.
they extended the moderate risk to about the Ohio River.
New Tornado Watch
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0163.html
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PART OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
Wellston
I know Wellston.
cool !
Grew up there. Considering moving back because of elderly parents.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOMERVILLE...OR ABOUT NEAR
COLLIERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROSSVILLE...OAKLAND...MOSCOW AND WILLISTON.
.IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.
LAT...LON 3521 8966 3501 8965 3502 8928 3517 8919
3540 8922
$$
Where are ya at now ?
SoCal
Were you affected by the storms last Sunday? I hope you are all safe and well, and stay that way! I have a friend near Nashville.
I like tracking weather. I thought about becoming a meteorologist when I was in high school, but didn't.
Quite a ways from home. LOL..
Cmmon back, we need more conservatives around here ! Too many conservative Democrats that vote Democratic because "my grandpa voted FDR" or something like that. LOL
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR FAYETTE
COUNTY...
AT 1155 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO IS NOW LOCATED NEAR PIPERTON...OR
ABOUT NEAR COLLIERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROSSVILLE...OAKLAND...MOSCOW...WILLISTON AND SOMERVILLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
I miss it in some ways. Hope you stay clear of the storms.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1159 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR MCKENZIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ROUTON...
VALE AND SPRINGVILLE.
Just heard that something has happened in a shopping center. Do you know anything? There is so much static that I could not get the details.
We are in Tipton county and it seems as if the bad weather is moving away from us at this point.
Thank you.
Yeah, Southeast Ohio is quiet and nice. I grew up here. Thought about leaving and seeing what trouble I can get into elsewhere, I dont know. God seems to throw me various curveballs that gives me the impression that I am meant to be around here. Might just stay around. I love it.
I haven't seen any NWS storm reports regarding tornadoes yet.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1219 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006
TNC005-071745-
/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-060407T1745Z/
BENTON TN-
1219 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT FOR BENTON
COUNTY...
AT 1213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BIG SANDY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF CAMDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BIG SANDY BY 1230 PM CDT
CAMDEN AROUND 1230 PM CDT
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
TENNESSEE. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR TENNESSEE.
LAT...LON 3628 8796 3619 8795 3618 8794 3606 8820
3612 8820 3627 8807 3634 8809 3635 8807
3636 8799
$$
radar is lighting up down there
Massive hooks on the cell east of Memphis and the one crossing the southern tip of the two long lakes in NW Tenessee.
Yep,
this is the area that got hammered several days ago. ughhh
Is it headed for you???
Bolivar is getting it right now. I am southeast of Bolivar 40 miles in Corinth.
I live right on the Stateline where Alcorn County, Ms, and McNairy Co, Tn, and US 45 goes N & S. You can get within 400 yards of my house when you look on the maps with those lines.
We are playing too many games out there.
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