LIVE THREAD - 50TH CD SPECIAL ELECTION RESULTS - 18 Vie for Vacant House Seat in Ca.

AP Yahoo ^ | 4/11/06 | Allison Hoffman - ap

[Paul8148]

so looks like the repbulican there will get 2/3 of the vote in June?

[FairOpinion]

"Why are you posting to yourself on your own thread regarding this election"

===

I sometime do that, because I am too lazy, or forget to take my name off, when I hit post, when I think of something else I forgot to say in my first post.

This thread wasn't about Arnold, I didn't say a word about Arnold, merely point out the circular fire squad mentality of the Republican party.

[TatieBug]

Thanks much but there are NO numbers there...that's where I keep going...this is so strange. Somebody on here must have so info...

[Do not dub me shapka broham]

You're not alone.

Bilbray deserves to be in Congress, and if he's not elected you can bet that Mexifornia will be worse off for it.

We need more individuals like Bilbray in office and less like that bland party hack, David Drier.

[calcowgirl]

ooohhh... tight race!

STATE SENATOR 35th District  
                   Vote Count  Percentage  
TOM HARMAN (REP)       25384    38.6%  
DIANE HARKEY (REP)     24772    37.7%  
LARRY CABALLERO (DEM)  15589    23.7%  

Registration and Turnout  
Completed Precincts: 78 of 723  
                          Reg/Turnout  Percentage  
Total Registered Voters    513832   
Precinct Registration      513832   
Precinct Ballots Cast        2666         0.5%  
Absentee Ballots Cast       63585        12.4%  
Total Ballots Cast          66251        12.9%  

http://www.oc.ca.gov/election/Live/35thSenP/results.htm

[Do not dub me shapka broham]

...merely point out the circular fire squad mentality of the Republican party.

Too often true.

[TatieBug]

Where are you getting your numbers...

[TatieBug]

Where are you getting your numbers...

[Torie]

No. Don't let primary numbers fool you, particularly when one party has a contested primary, and the other doesn't, and it is an open primary, because it is a special election. But it is a fairly strong lean GOP district, and the GOP nominee will be a heavy favorite in the runoff special general, particularly given that state legislative elections are so anonymous, in anonymous urban California. Few have a clue who the candidates are, or care, and just vote party.

[ArmstedFragg]

Try calraces.com, if all else fails. He's posting from time to time. Harman's leading slightly.

[ArmstedFragg]

http://www.sdvote.org/election/special.xml

[Torie]

I did get the message, and the Arnold allusion was clear, but Busby's numbers were not materially affected by the many GOP candidates. In fact, to the extent they were, they were probably reduced. Cheers. Your grand unified theory that you have for every election, just might be a bit too grand.

[ArmstedFragg]

66.5 percent now.
The San Diego site's header is not updating, but the numbers are:

FRANCINE BUSBY
45963
43.28%

BRIAN P. BILBRAY
16268
15.32%

ERIC ROACH
15197
14.31%

HOWARD KALOOGIAN
7856
7.40%

BILL MORROW
6148
5.79%

[Torie]

Those numbers are very close to a wrap. Bilbray is now a 90% odds on favorite to move on to the runoff. That will be a tight race, lean GOP still for the seat, but tight. The amount of money spent will magnify any mistakes the candidates make, and the fortunes of the parties themselves. The wild card will be whether squish or other dissaffected voters want to send a message. Specials are a cheap and effective way of doing so.

[santorumlite]

I agree with you I never understood the argument that busby is helped by having more candidates split their votes.

The more candidates there are hurts any candidate trying to get 50 percent. Each candidate has their own base and own network of resources.

The key will be having no republicans challenge bilbray in the primary which will be the same day as the special election.

Another key will having the voters for the two conservative candidates not stay home.

Also there is another dem running today so add both the dems total and they are around 45 percent and could climb more.

Dems will also have the runoff the same days as the governor's primary where 50 million is being spent to turn out the vote.

San Diego county did Busby a great favor by recommending to arnold to have the run off occur on primary day.

Other republicans might run against bilbray for the primary which would be the same day as the special election which would hurt him.

Also there will be some voters who come out to vote for the governor primary who wouldn't have shown up otherwise. Gop has no contested contest so the extra dems showing up will be added votes in busby's column.

[The Old Hoosier]

Morrow on pace to come in fifth.

I admire you for believing, but it's a shame three conservatives had to split the vote. Looks like Bilbray's going to pull it off...

[Paul8148]

What is the total % or Republican vote? It might come down to the fact the libertain will not be on the June ballot and they swing to the pubbie.

[Torie]

Good points, but this race will have enough visibility, that it will generate its own energy.

[Torie]

Young is the only other Dem, so the vote is 55%-45%, just about the split between Kerry and Bush.

[calcowgirl]

Precincts:   445
Counted:     296
Percentage:  66.5% 

FRANCINE BUSBY      45963     43.28%
BRIAN P. BILBRAY    16268     15.32%
ERIC ROACH          15197     14.31%
HOWARD KALOOGIAN     7856     7.40%
BILL MORROW          6148     5.79%
ALAN UKE             4271     4.02%
RICHARD EARNEST      2360     2.22%
BILL HAUF            1725     1.62%
CHRIS YOUNG          1490     1.40%
SCOTT TURNER         1424     1.34%
WILLIAM GRIFFITH      917     0.86%
VICTOR E. RAMIREZ     734     0.69%
PAUL KING             662     0.62%
JEFF NEWSOME          491     0.46%
SCOTT ORREN           278     0.26%
DELECIA HOLT          209     0.20%
BILL BOYER            160     0.15%
MILTON GALE            45     0.04%