Officials: Iran Nuclear Bomb Is Years Away

Yahoo! News ^ | April 13, 2006 | Katherine Shrader

[Toddsterpatriot]

A 10 to 20 ton TNT equivalent wouldn't do very much damage. Hiroshima was between 12 and 15 kilotons, Nagasaki was 20-22 kilotons.

[Toddsterpatriot]

You guys are forgetting they still have to develop the precise timing detonation mechanism, which cannot be acquired on the black market and must be built internally.

A shotgun, U-235 device doesn't need a precise timing mechanism.

[JasonC]

They told the IAEA they would install 3000 by this fall. It takes about 9 months to get enough for the first bomb from that number operating, putting the first around next summer. They have also said, however, that they will up the number running to 50,000. Presumably concurrently. That may move the time to first forward by perhaps 3 months or so, next spring. But its more important consequence is that doing nothing means they will be adding weapon ability to their nuclear stockpile at a rate of 20-25 bombs per year, around the same time they get the first one.

So for a year, maybe, they don't have one. Then they have 1-2 and are getting production in place. If you wait one presidential term, on the other hand, they have 100 bombs and start threatening Israel, the gulf, etc.

Pay now or pay later. Waiting gets real expensive real fast.

[JasonC]

You are high. Islamicist nutjobs are firmly in charge, there is no effective opposition, they will murder whoever they please whenever they feel like it. We've got a year when they are a conventional power, and months after that where they only have a couple of hard to deliver devices or the potential to make them. Then they have a stockpile of fully serviceable weapons, which will grow by 20-25 warheads per year indefinitely.

[Realism]

Senior intelligence officials alternatively say Tehran will have a nuclear weapon within a decade, or within several years.

Or tomorrow, with a little help handed under the table. We all know they didn't get this far by themselves.

[Desron13]

"Our Intelligence Community has missed every single nuclear development for the last 15 years!"

Spot on! And who's to say that the Pakistani nut salads haven't already given the Iranian nut jobs all the know how that they need. I would be surprised if thats not the case.

[KarlInOhio]

You guys are forgetting they still have to develop the precise timing detonation mechanism,

Only if you want a plutonium implosion bomb. A gun type uranium bomb needs one trigger and a madman looking for 72 virgins can be the timing device.

which cannot be acquired on the black market and must be built internally.

Cannot? You have a much higher opinion of the Russians, Chinese and Pakistanis (do they have uranium or plutonium bombs) than I do.

[RightWhale]

The report in a thread yesterday said they had 4000 centrifuges in 2002. With this they could produce one bomb every six months. Have they produced more centrifuges in the past four years? By the end of WW II the US could produce a bomb every ten days. As a wild guess, which seems to be the Intelligence technique, Iran probably has eight bombs already.

[CougarGA7]

I agree. I was just stating the smallest and quickest to bomb they could make.

Keep in mind that a 20 ton TNT equivalent nuke would still be more devistating than just a 20 ton conventional explosive. See the rem data I described above for why.

Finally, a 20 ton bomb still can do significant damage. The TNT equivalent of the Oklahoma City Bombing was calculated at 4700lbs, or 2.35 tons.

[TexasCajun]

Ever heard of Abdul Qadeer Khan from Pakistan?

The #1 source of illegal nuclear proliferation in the past 20 years!

On Sunday, Khan confessed to sharing nuclear technology with Iran, Libya, and North Korea in a 12-page document presented to President Pervez Musharraf, according to a briefing given by government officials to Pakistani media in Islamabad.

How our "intelligence communtiy" allowed this guy to breath is beyond me?

[Toddsterpatriot]

I was just stating the smallest and quickest to bomb they could make.

Please. A nuke with a 20 ton yield would be a massive failure, not a cause for panic.

Finally, a 20 ton bomb still can do significant damage. The TNT equivalent of the Oklahoma City Bombing was calculated at 4700lbs, or 2.35 tons.

So they'd kill a few thousand (if that) and within 30 minutes they'd be wiped out.

[RightWhale]

Small nukes are measured in kilotons, that is, thousand tons TNT equivalence.

[rjp2005]

Gun-type Uranium bombs have to be very big compared to implosion devices, and they are also extremely volatile and can be set off by simple accidents. Big safety hazard for developers, and even worse if you're trying to ship it here or get it in via van across the border or in the belly of an airline.

Iran wants the real deal - the implosion type.

Re:Russia, China, black market - the Iranian government knows their best defense right now is the claim that all of this is for civilain nuclear power. They wont risk getting caught trying to bring in plutonium implosion detonators - they have to do it in their country, underground and out of sight.

Actually I have alot of confidence in our non-proliferation monitoring networks. We've focused alot of attention into it since 2000 and it's the one area Iran knows we CAN see what they're doing. They are a patient and (sickly maniacal), well organized regime - not just a rash rouge bunch of morons looking for the first little firecracker they can get.

[ziggygrey]

Regarding the dirty bomb, that doesnt seem to fit. The Iranian government is very proud and desires to run the entire process themselves. It is much easier for them to work in secret in their own country where we cannot see anything, rather than to risk putting out more feelers for black market weapons while our post 9-11 ears are everywhere watching for these kind of shady deals.

They are hardly working in secret... and the degree to which they claim to have enriched... a few percent.. is nothing compared to the many tens of thousands of centrifuges (literally miles of complexes) necessary for weapons-grade development - even underground, the sheer piles of dirt excavated couldn't be hiddern. But you did mention pride, and I think that's a BIG part of it...

I wish that our "post 9-11 eyes/ears" were everywhere watching for missing nukes, but we've actually cut back on those programs with the Russians!

Believe it or not, Iran itself is an open society , far more so than the Soviet Union, where older colleagues of mine used to visit. My hesitation to visit isn't from what would happen to me there, but what the hassle I'd get HERE from DHS (since I'm a scientist) - so, not worth it (though friends have often invited me). So, education and technological development is going to sooner or later push against the tyranny of the mullahs (forget their clown president, my friends their regard him as a joke). We have at least as much to worry about with Pakistan nukes, should their leader be overthrown...

BTW, I saw a little bit of the enrichment "celebration" on the BBC... did that strike anybody else as being a little... GAY? Very weird..

[CougarGA7]

I think you underestimate the terror factor of even that small of a device. A small device that causes immediate death to everyone within a 300 meter range of the device in a populated area would be devistating as far creating fear.

And I would add that I bet they would wait to have enough to make a bigger one than that. That is just the smallest flavor.

[CougarGA7]

I understand that. I work in blast mitigation. I just converted it to tons rather than say .02 kilotons.

[Thom Pain]

Well, its not like they've threatened anyone.

[Toddsterpatriot]

A small device that causes immediate death to everyone within a 300 meter range of the device in a populated area would be devistating as far creating fear.

I'd be shocked if a squib yield of 20 tons would release that much radiation. You have any links on squibs?

[HardStarboard]

With over 50 nuclear development sites (that we are aware of) is it not possible that the trumpeting of the Natanz 3.5% enrichment milestone is a strawman? Ahmandinejad is certainly capable of deception to fulfill his messianic dreams. Could they have several sites with cascades of centrifuges that the CIA (that couldn't figure out bin Ladens scheme) and the IAEA (whose inspections Saddam ran circles around for years) haven't a clue about?

So if we take the low end of the current intelligence estimate at 5 years for Iran to have a nuke, and apply a 50% fudge factor for uncertainty - that makes the window 2.5 to 7.5 years. If 2.5 years is a possibility - I think we better get in gear now!!

These question of Iran's intentions must be resolved soon - it will take a threat of imminent military action on the part of the US and/or Israel to have any possibility of moving the UN to action......and even then, do we want to trust the continued existance Tel Aviv and NYC to the UN?

"All of us have greater confidence in the judgments that we are making and bringing forward on Iran," Fingar said.

Don't include me in the "all of us" Mr. Fingar!

My preferred solution is a "small" nuclear "demonstration" blast delivered in the depths of the Iranian desert, with the admonition that they open all sites to immediate inspection or....and leave the answer hanging!

[CougarGA7]

4th paragraph. I work in coventional explosives so I had to do some research on nuclear ones. I do work with several individuals who worked on some of the underground tests. Interesting stuff on small nukes