Posted on 04/13/2006 11:56:20 AM PDT by Toddsterpatriot
Oh yeah, I have real confidence in our intelligence communiy anymore....
I think you meant 16,000 centrifuges ultimate capacity for Natanz. Right?
So, let's blow them up now and avoid the rush.
No, I meant 160. I was talking about the pilot facility which is the southern building in the group of 4 above ground buildings on the west side of the complex. The floor space of the underground facility is estimated to be able to contain 50,000 centrifuges.
bttt
At least I got the "boy" part right. ;-)
Sounds like a slam dunk to me.
Why not just buy a couple of bombs or enriched fuel from North Korea or Pakistan. The increased oil revenue gives them plenty of purchasing power.
Some other poster address this question, and now I cant remember which thread. But I think he/she made a very good point.
1. Pakistan doesn't want to have another nuclear neighbor, especially while they are siding with the United States on the war on terror.
2. NK has a limited amount of nuclear material and bombs. They are still relatively new to the nuclear club and would probably be unlikely to sell what they currently have...except for technological information.
1. Pakistan doesn't want to have another nuclear neighbor, especially while they are siding with the United States on the war on terror.
The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a hotbed of religious zealots. It is also a poor country. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that Abdul Qadeer Khan has already shared this info with the Iranians. Hell, the Libyans were working on a bomb.
2. NK has a limited amount of nuclear material and bombs. They are still relatively new to the nuclear club and would probably be unlikely to sell what they currently have...except for technological information.
NK is an economic basket case with widespread starvation. It will sell anything to get hard currency. The NK diplomats used to sell liquor and cigarettes to run their embassies.
The bottom line is that Iran has the financial wherewithal to buy whatever it needs. It should also be added that they have signed long-term oil contracts with China, which has an increasing need for oil. I have lived in Iran for a couple of years. They have the brain power to develop their own nukes.
That only becomes a factor if they take over the country and its nuclear arsenal. Musharaaf is not going to do this. He's already in a quasi MAD situation with India. He is not going to add additional risk by providing nukes to a country that supports the Al Qada radicals that he is actively hunting in his own country.
NK is an economic basket case with widespread starvation. It will sell anything to get hard currency. The NK diplomats used to sell liquor and cigarettes to run their embassies.
The NK government doesn't care a wit that they have a starving populous. And again, unless Kim loses power I dont see him selling off his coveted nukes.
No, I think Iran is going to have to build them themselves, or find a way to get a hold of some of the missing Soviet nukes.
" or find a way to get a hold of some of the missing Soviet nukes."
Obviously the speculation since the breakup of the soviet union has been that iran was one of the buyers of some of those nukes. I can recall articles from the early 90's commenting on this belief in 'intelligence circles,' israeli and american. It would certainly have made a lot of sense for them to do that.
First, this presupposes that Musharraf has complete control over his government and country. Pakistan was one of the few countries to have relations with the Taliban. A number of Pakistanis crossed the border to assist the Taliban and AQ against us. More than likely, bin Laden is hiding in Pakistan aided by local tribes. Don't forget that Khalid Shiek Mohammed and Ramzi Yousef were both Pakistani Baluchis.
Musharaf seized power through a coup. He has been the target of repeated assassination attempts. That said, I agree that Musharraf would not knowingly provide Iran with nuclear weapons or enriched uranium, however, there are those, like AQ Khan, that might or have.
Khan confessed, on TV, to having been involved in a clandestine international network of nuclear weapons technology proliferation from Pakistan to Libya, Iran and North Korea. In his startling televised confession Wednesday, Abdul Qadeer Khan insisted he acted without authorization in selling nuclear technology to other governments. A.Q. Khan admitted selling nuclear technology to Iran, Libya, and North Korea. On February 5, 2004, the President of Pakistan, General Pervez Musharraf, announced that he had pardoned Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan.
Finally, I think many question how actively Musharraf is pursuing AQ in his own country.
The NK government doesn't care a wit that they have a starving populous. And again, unless Kim loses power I dont see him selling off his coveted nukes.
Au contraire. The NK government is concerned if it threatens their power and control of the country. We and others have been giving them food aid, which is critical to the NK. No doubt, much of the aid goes to the military and those that support the government. It keeps them in power.
From a 1998 CIA Report: Throughout the first half of 1998, North Korea continued to export ballistic missile-related equipment and missile components and materials to countries of concern. Pyongyang attaches a high priority to the development and sale of ballistic missiles, equipment, and related technology. North Korea has little else to export to raise significant amounts of hard currency besides ballistic missiles and other weapons.
According to US sources, other customers of North Korean missile parts and technology include Pakistan, Iran, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Vietnam. The missile sales to "rogue states" in the Middle East and Asia have raised fears that at least some of these missiles might end up in the hands of international terrorist groups.
US military officials in South Korea assert that missile sales play a vital role in propping up the Pyongyang regime. In 2001 alone, North Korean exports totaled $560 million, a substantial figure for a country with an estimated annual GDP of approximately $17 billion. North Korean defectors believe that such sales - including the sale of more conventional weaponry-make up as much as 40 per cent of North Korea's total exports.
The bottom line is that NK will sell anything to get money. With more money they can build more nuclear weapons and procure additional equipment to make them. It is not a matter of "selling off his coveted nukes," but rather, a means to turn it into a major revenue producer and increase his present arsenal.
Iran's bomb is being contructed at this time.
This first one being constructed is crude - but from what I hear it is being refered to as a "uranium bomb"
"The drab compound that houses the Iranian embassy in Pyongyang is the focus of intense scrutiny by diplomats and intelligence services who believe that North Korea is negotiating to sell the Iranians plutonium from its newly enlarged stockpile — a sale that would hand Tehran a rapid route to the atomic bomb."
"The belief that Iran and North Korea are talking about plutonium stems from a recently reported offer of oil and gas from Tehran in exchange for nuclear technology.
The discovery by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 2004 that North Korea had sold an estimated 1.7 tons of uranium to Libya established a precedent for the sale and showed how hard it is to stop, diplomats say."
The Americans were aghast to learn last year that while engaging in disarmament talks, North Korea had made enough plutonium to amass a stockpile of about 43 kilograms, perhaps as much as 53kg. For the first time since the nuclear crisis began in 1994 it has sufficient fissile material to sell some to its ally while retaining enough for its own purposes.
Interesting information you've found there. I could be wrong on this. You make a real good argument.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.