Posted on 04/20/2006 3:22:03 PM PDT by slowhand520
The Fox poll has him today at 33% and Rasmussen has him at 43%. Either way Bush is in a funk.
Thursday April 20, 2006--Forty-three percent (43%) of American adults approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove.
In Texas, Governor Rick Perry (R) remains stable at 40% in a 4-way race. But his lead has grown as all three challengers are now below 20%. Our latest Virginia election poll shows Senator George Allen (R) in good shape for his re-election bid. In New Jersey, Tom Kean, Jr. (R) has opened a modest lead against Senator Robert Menendez (D). We have also released polls recently in California, Montana, Florida, Washington, Alabama, Massachusetts, Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri,
Premium Members can also review our latest polling data from Maryland, the Florida Governor's race, and Virginia.
At least Rasmussen has GW going up. Which is the opposite of all LSM polls.
Rasmussen is the most accurate pollster out there.
BTTT
It's because Rasmussen balances party I.D. to represent the nation's actual party make-up. Most of the rest of the polls just sloppily over-poll Democrats and call it accurate.
Anyway, don't let this information get out to the Free Republic Bush haters. They want to believe Bush has a 2% approval rating. This might depress them.
43% is low for Rasmussen. However, with opinions on immigration changing to reflect the President's and Iraq about to form a government... the numbers will undoubtedly rise.
Most MSM polls probably aren't even lagging indicators. They are typically push-polls, and therefore fraudulent, intended to "make news" with their findings.
Still better than Billy boy when he won.
He did such a hideous job during the lead-in into election 2000 under the name 'Portrait of America' he had to change the name of the polling company.
Portrait of America regularly had Dubya ahead by 3-4 points nationally for the 2000 election, while most of the other polls had Gore & Dubya pretty much tied. Of course, PoA was the preferred poll around the halls of FR, who were in denial about all the other polls (which, of course, were more correct than Rasmussen).
People with memories longer than a few years know that Rasmussen/Portrait of America is not 'the most accurate poillster out there.'
Unlike his predesesor it doesn't matter to him. One thing about this President that I admire is his utter contempt for POLLS.
He is not the politician who puts his finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing.
He leads and pushes what he believes. Like it or not you KNOW where he stands.
Pinging the Official Dose Statistician...
It depends on your definition of "positive." Some say "Fair" is a negative. Most polls have only five choices with the top two scored as positive the next two scored as negative regardless of the words associated with those choices. The fifth choice is the "Do Not Know" option. I think they should score them like school used to be graded, "Excellent", "Superior", "Average", "Below Average", "Failing", and "Incomplete." And report the results using those same terms.
"People with memories longer than a few years know that Rasmussen/Portrait of America is not 'the most accurate poillster out there.'"
Rasmussen has been up front about how they failed in 2000 and has changed his polling methodology to correct his errors. His results in 2004 were quite accurate as a result. What mistakes a guy made 6 years ago aren't relevent to the here and now, particularly when he learned from them, made needed adjustments and showed considerable improvement since.
The fact that Rasmussen uses correct party I.D. balances reflective of the actual voting population, as opposed the slopola lapdog media's polls which over-represent Democrats by as much as 14 percentage points, automatically gives him greater credibility in my estmation regardless of his fall on his face 6 yrs. hence. And I'm speaking as someone who worked in the polling industry for 8 yrs, including working with three of the biggest polling outfits including one that did the Time/CNN poll.
Hitman- POA had Bush up by about 9 on election day, winning in a landslide... Needless to say, he closed up shop shortly afterward... I used to LOVE that site.
"Forty-three percent (43%) of American adults approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove. "
This is meaningless...the only ones who should be polled are REGISTERED VOTERS. Fox makes phone calls, anyone who answers might be illegal, foreign, a teenager. None of these polls are accurate.
More fake news.
Hey, I'm not particularly happy with him at the moment, but that does NOT translate into any advantage for the RATS!
20% higher than Fox and about 40% higher than Ted Kennedy, John McCain, Dick Durbin and the other liberal rats in congress.
< Hey, I'm not particularly happy with him at the moment, but that does NOT translate into any advantage for the RATS! >
That's the beauty of it. He's down and they can't seem to use it. For them to take advantage, they have to open their mouths. All they have to say when they do open their mouths is "Bush is bad". It's a bit tiring. They've got nothing.
I'm surprised Bush is at 43%. I've never been to Iraq, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt on that one if only because of my disdain for Democrats.
I don't need a GOP President to argue for social justice for illegals. I've seen Caifornia turned into a Third-World hole. I wouldn't boubt Bush wants to do the same thing to the rest of the country.
(1) Illegal immigration!However, the American people have no intention of entrusting their security and the future of the United States and to that bunch of self-serving degenerates, decadents, fools, aging hippies, Marxists, overt and covert anti-Americans, sociopaths, and morons who make up the Democrat Party!
(2) Open borders!
(3) Nullification of the Supreme Court's odious and nefarious "Eminent Domain" decision!
(4) Government expansion!
(5) Expansion of entitlement programs, including prescription drug benefits!
(6) The litigation crisis that, among other outrages, has priced health care out of the reach of everyone!
(7) Et al.!
And this is the bottom line:
So long as his presidency is tied to this "Islamic Democracy" nonsense, he will never recover to any significant degree.
Believing that Islam is a religion of peace and that liberty and freedom can flourish in these societies at this point in history was utter foolishness.
Every time another suicide bomber murders innocent civilians or the headchoppers slaughter another person - it reminds Americans of what a fundamentally poor idea trying to make Islamic democracy was. Under normal circumstances, terrorists attacks should strengthen a President's approval in his attempts to deal with it. The reverse is true for President Bush. He has staked his reputation and legacy on the idea that Islam is really a "religion of peace" and that real liberty and freedom can be built in Muslim lands. Unfortunantly, that was utterly naive on his part in my opinion - and I believe the majority of Americans now believe the same. Increasingly, I also suspect that more and Republicans have even come to recognize this.
Bush is better than any Democrat, and the one time I was polled I registered approval for the President. But some of us have believed this Iraq democracy thing would be a disaster from day 1. I don't see how it cant be more clear that those of us whom thought so were correct.
Really ? You think there's some groundswell of Americans who want the US to become part of Latin America ? Haven't the American people made it clear that they want no talk of any guest worker nonsense UNTIL the borders are secure ?
Ras had him at 35% over the Easter weekend. Bush is surging!
LLS
It's about our security and our families' security. Bush seemed to recognize that right after 9/11. I don't care what kind of society the Muslims have as long as they are not blowing things up.
Polls are for those who can't think.
They give people who can't think something to talk about with each other.
They have nothing to do with running a country as popularity is the last consideration a CEO would ever concern himself with...particularly when he is not eligible for a third term.
He's not concerned one iota about what people who participate in polls think because people like that can't find their butts with both hands.
Is that so? Then why not just remove the enemy regime in Iraq and then go home? Mission truly accomplished. That I supported. It's the staying part some of us opposed from day 1.
If you don't care about their society, why the heck would you support hanging around in Iraq to build this democracy dream?
I don't care about what kind of society that have either. I don't care if they actually eat each others babies. So long as they don't attack us. So maybe we agree here. If so, why wouldnt it have been a better idea to remove an enemy regime and let that be the message to the world. Screw with America, your regime is killed - period.
Instead we set lofty, unrealistic goals and set up a situation where terrorists will very likely achieve a major victory against the last remaining world power with a spine.
Hey, not true, I thought he had a 3% approval rating. Actually I wouldn't say I'm a bush-hater, just not a bush-bot.
Bush presides over open borders. So is he to thank for the lack of a 9-11 repeat or is it just a matter of time?
Congress has center stage right now. They are running for reelection. Look for Bush to leave the spotlight open for them.
9/11 was just a "tragedy" don't ya know. That is what Fat, drunk, murder Teddy said today to Katie the opossum.
Whom do you defind as Bush haters? Acutal Bush haters or some of us that voted for him twice and just don't always drink the kool-aid and actually take issue when he's wrong?
I'd rather be a skeptic and complain to make my points known than to blindly follow someone.
"Anyway, don't let this information get out to the Free Republic Bush haters. They want to believe Bush has a 2% approval rating. This might depress them."
So.....I'm not the only one that has been very disappointed in the FR content of late.
The FOXNEWS/OPINION DYNAMICS poll 'pushed' the President's approval to 'a new low' by increasing the spread between Democrats and Republicans.
Today's poll:
40% Democrats
32% Republicans
-8 (advantage Democrats)
Last poll (4/5/06)
39% Democrats
34% Republicans
-5 (advantage Democrats)
Surprise, surprise: Opinion Dynamics oversamples Democrats by an additional 3 points over the last poll and, just like magic, the President's JA rating falls by an additional 3 points!
FYI: OPINION DYNAMICS was the LEAST ACCURATE pollster for the 2004 election, calling the election for Kerry and missing the margin by almost 6 points -- not even Zogby did as poorly!! Conversely, RASMUSSEN was among the MOST ACCURATE pollsters for the 2004 elections . . . 'nuf said!
Every poll was accurate in 2004, pretty much. Rasmussen certainly was not 6-10 points MORE accurate than other polls.
Rasmussen adjusts his survey to reflect the partisan balance according to exit polls at the last election. That's it. There's no "correct" number to measure against, and other pollsters take random samples that can reflect changes in how people self-identify.
It has not happened. He is responsible for that. Whether or not it should happen in the future, we do not know, but he is to be respected for preventing its happening for more than four years--despite the relentless attempts of the enemy.
Karl Rove has taken more polls in a month than most democrats do their entire careers.
Thanks for your input. I always wait for it when these new polls come out. I'm almost never disappointed that the polls continuously oversample Democrats.
Do you think it's on purpose or do you think it's simply because of the problems pollsters have getting through caller ID, cell phones and answering machines?
". . . the polls continuously oversample Democrats.
Do you think it's on purpose or do you think it's simply because of the problems pollsters have getting through caller ID, cell phones and answering machines?"
I think it's a combination of both! The following is my current rant on the subject:
POLLS, SCHMOLLS!
During Reagan's presidency, one genuinely independent pollster provided reliable polling data on a wide range of issues, including the President's job approval rating. That one pollster was the Gallup Organization. [Harris and Newsweek also produced polls, with additional pollsters picking up the slack during election years, but these pollsters were always viewed as 'bit' players compared to Gallup.]
In the 1980s, Gallup could still produce a REPRESENTATIVE polling sample of 1,500 - 2,500 adults by eliciting a 'reliable' 60% response rate using standard telephone technology . . . NO MORE!
We now have almost 30 'media-owned' polling organizations -- who regularly ‘manufacture’ skewed polling data by relying upon dated technology, push polling methodologies, and laughably low response rates (from demographic groups who also just happen to lean Democrat).
BOTTOMLINE: Pollsters have become nothing more than propaganda prostitutes for media organizations desperate to SHAPE rather than report public opinion . . . And what is the media's current goal? Nothing less than the personal and political destruction of a sitting President for the express purpose of enabling Democrats to reclaim the Congress and eventually the presidency!
WHY DO WE NEED SO MANY POLLSTERS? Answer: WE don’t, but Democrats do!!!!
NBCNews/WallStreet Journal
ABCNews/WashingtonPost
CBSNews/NYTimes
FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics
USAToday/Gallup
LATimes/Bloomberg
AP/Ipsos Reid
IBD/Christian Science Monitor
Pew Poll
Harris Poll
Time
Newsweek
Quinnipiac
WNBC/Marist
Zogby
Rasmussen
Survey USA
ARG
NationalPublicRadio (NPR)
Cook/RTStrategies
Diageo/Hotline
Strategic Vision
Democracy Corps
The Battleground Poll
Mason Dixon
Annenberg
and many, many more . . . .
FORGET THE POLLS AND JUST REMEMBER:
PRESIDENT GEORGE W BUSH IS PERSONALLY POPULAR!. . . The new LATimes/Bloomberg poll (which oversamples Democrats by double digits) puts the President's 'PERSONAL APPROVAL' rating at 61% as compared to Clinton's highest 'Personal Approval' rating of 42% for this same poll!!
The recent Battleground Poll discovered the same 'Personal Approval' rating for the President and identified this rating as the greatest hope for Republicans moving forward to the 2006 election. [NOTE: According to the Battleground Poll, Clinton's 'Personal Approval' ratings never climbed
above 40%!]
Bottomline: The MAJORITY of people in this country LIKE President George W Bush and will listen to his message IF and when they actually 'hear' it. Unfortunately, the MSM (right and left) is working overtime to 'black out'
and 'counter spin' the President, making it VERY difficult for him to communicate directly with the American people.
Despite these difficulties, George W Bush will continue as president for 2 1/2 more years; during which time, he will ignore the polls and do what's best for the long term security and prosperity of our country!
Of course freedom and liberty can be nurtured in Muslim lands!! But it is going to take at least 50 years. Islam in it's present unreformed state is doomed! It is in it's death throws right now and it is horrible to watch. Islam is doomed and the terrorists are in denial about it, that's why they are so desperate and will do anything....they know that Islam is headed for the garbage bin of history. Bush is visionary it is too bad people give up so quickly. We are just at the beginning of this effort.
They have changed their methodology since those days. Rasmussen in 2004 was the most accurate poll within a half percent on Bush and Kerry. They poll every day, take a large sample size than most polls, do a 3 day rolling average, and use a voice recorder to ask the question so as not to have inflection in the voice changing with each person polled. Mathematically, they are a superior polling service.
Actually I wouldn't say I'm a bush-hater, just not a bush-bot.
I think being on balance supportive of the president even if I have problems with him on certain things doesn't make me or anyone a "Bush bot." But I recognize on balance in terms of national security and the economy that he's been good for the nation. Bashing Bush has just become a cliche, part of the national fabric lead off by a ravenous media that has hated the man since the word go. Falling into lock step with that is the robotic act IMHO.
From my perspective our disagreements with the president are a family disagreement. The president has let us down on some key issues, but he's also given us one hell of a lot. It's like with a parent or child or even a friend who disappoints you. You don't just abandon them and totally turn on them, especially when on balance the relationship has been good.
I'm not speaking of people who have focused disagreements with the president or focused criticisms of him on certain issues. I too disagree with him on a few key areas. I'm speaking of the minority of people on Free Republic who have turned on Bush wholesale because of one or two issues only.
Every poll was accurate in 2004, pretty much. Rasmussen certainly was not 6-10 points MORE accurate than other polls.
Rasmussen adjusts his survey to reflect the partisan balance according to exit polls at the last election. That's it. There's no "correct" number to measure against, and other pollsters take random samples that can reflect changes in how people self-identify.
I never said Rasmussen was 6-10 points better than the other polls, merely that he drastically improved his performance.
And you're not quite right about Rasmussen using "exit polls" as his benchmark. He uses actual voter turnout numbers from 2004 and those are still more or less accurate within a point or two based on the latest political demographics I've seen, so he's still providing an accurate sample. And those numbers are updated regularly by statistical experts within the polling sample providers. So Rasmussen at least in the terms of a differential between Republican and Democratic voters is still quite accurate.
And no, just talking to whomever answers the phone is not an accurate reflection of political trends. That's just utterly sloppy polling. It would never go on in campaign polling, trust me. I worked in the polling industry for 8 yrs. and not controlling your demographic content is "garbage in, garbage out." There are many variables in terms of who will and won't take the time to take a poll and merely going with whoever answers will never yield you an accurate representation of America's political make up other than by pure habinstance.
I'm not sure why some of you NEED to believe these polls. Just because a few of you are migrating out of the party does not mean many others are.
David Letterman a perfect example.
On those occasions when I can't get to the remote quickly enough, I've noted Mr. Letterman conducting a full frontal Bush Bash...something I assume is a nightly ritual.
Unfortunately, those that appreciate his "humor" likely won't understand the agenda that's being pushed.
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