Posted on 04/22/2006 5:02:11 AM PDT by Carl/NewsMax
National Republicans may pay a huge price for not doing more to oppose Hillary Clinton's Senate reelection bid this year.
In fact, it may cost them control of the House.
Bloomberg News reports that the former first lady, along with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer, now lead their opponents by such wide margins that their coattails could help Democrats "pick up as many as six New York congressional seats - more than one-third of the 15 they need nationally to gain a House majority."
Lee Miringoff, director of the Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College in Poughkeepsie, agrees that Clinton and Spitzer victories could have national consequences.
"It could turn into a Democratic year in New York, which might then have an impact on down-ballot races for Congress," he explained.
Even absent the New York factor, Republicans are already deeply worried that the House could go Democrat - a prospect that White House spokeswoman Mary Matalin described on Thursday as "catastrophic."
Add a Hillary Clinton landslide into the equation and Republican hopes grow considerably dimmer, at least if Miringoff's calculations hold true.
With so much on the line, one would expect the national GOP to be working overtime to boost Clinton's challenger, former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer. Even if he didn't win, a closer race might help preserve precious congressional seats for the GOP.
But outside of a brief critique of Mrs. Clinton "brittleness" delivered by Karl Rove earlier this year, the Bush White House is acting like they have nothing at stake in the New York race.
That's particularly odd, because if Dems take over the House, future House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers has already indicated that impeachment will be at the top of his agenda.
The conservative media hasn't been much better. After Jeanine Pirro's challenge fizzled in December, most pundits have treated Mrs. Clinton's reelection as a forgone conclusion.
Even though recent polls show Spencer gaining on Clinton, he's gotten almost no exposure on talk radio and cable TV - and print interviews have been slim to none.
That's not because Spencer has nothing to say - his comments to NewsMax earlier this year show he's ready to go after Hillary hammer and tong.
Still, Republican Party activists seem content to have Mrs. Clinton's reelection devolve into a coronation.
That's fine - as long they don't complain too loudly if Democrats take back the House based on a handful of seats won in New York - effectively putting an end to the Bush presidency.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
She hates it when people call her "Big Hillary Clinton"!
Those are not 'coattails'. Wash your hands with plenty of soap and water!
this is BS
I used to read Newsmax Carl. Have you ever wondered why many of us have stopped? Keep it up, and you will have less of an audience that pat buchanan!
LLS
Any specifics as to who is in danger exactly? My Congressman, Jim Walsh (Syracuse and surrounding area) will sail to reelection. I'm not sure he even has a Democratic opponent.
I have family who lives in upstate NY in a heavily Republican district. The people there could care less about the supposed Spitzer and Hildabeast effect, who's support comes mostly from New York City. They'll re-elect their Republican candidate by a wide margin.
Does anyone expect anything other than a big win for the Beast?
Oh Pleasse Hilary's NY Senate race hardly has coat-tails.
The drive-by MSM writer is wet-dream writing.
Was the this written in Diseyland's fantasyland much like the New Orleans mayoral candidates photos being substitute shot at the park vs the real locale?
When hasn't it been a Democrap year in New York? Even the Republicans are liberals!
Note how Sean Hannity had the socially liberal Pirro (wh is a terrific DA, BTW) on the show frequently, but as far as I know, has NEVER had the much-more-conservative Spencer on the air.
? Call the radio stations and demand that they put ALL SEnatorial candidates (and gubernatorial candidates, too) on the air. And I think an independent expenditure campaign is called for here. We need to start a fund to flood New York stations with paid reminders of Hitlery's scandals as well as her voting record.
Carl, you were better when you were simply "Carl of Oyster Bay," calling in to the NYC radio talk shows.
I almost shot my fruit juice through my nose reading this. The NY delegation is already overrepresented with 'Rats, and the GOP ONLY holds 9 out of 29 seats. Where do they think the GOP will shrink to 3 (?!?) seats with Spitzer and Clinton at the top of the ballot ?! Utter crap !
You are absolutely correct. At most the dem's pick off two house seats in NY.
I wonder which of Hillary's assistance really wrote this article?
Sue Kelly.
This is frustrating. It's like the entire Republican party isn't standing up for much of anything. It's a bad habit they picked up from the President.
According to Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, these are the House Republicans in New York who are vulnerable in a Hillary landslide:
John Sweenney, 20th District
Sherwood Boehlert, 24th District
Randy Kuhl, 29th District
Tom Reynolds, 26th District
James Walsh, 25th District
Sue Kelly, 19th District
Emanuel quote: "Hillary Clinton and Eliot Spitzer are get-out-the-vote magnets for the Democrats."
Normally, I'd be willing to dismiss Emanuel's prediction as the latest blather by a Dem apparachik that never seems to pan out.
But this time, the math is irrefutable. There's simply no way that a big NY landslide for Hillary can be good for the above incumbents.
Perhaps some of the skeptics here would like to explain how a Hillary coronation in NY won't have consequences for the national GOP - but I just don't see it.
There's simply no excuse for Republicans/conservatives to throw in the towel in the Hillary race at this early date (which is what most are doing). And it's a fair bet that they will pay the price for continuing in that direction by forfeiting not just New York - but the entire House, the crown jewel of the GOP revolution.
Hello impeachment, goodbye George Bush.
For more info, go to: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aEz86vr2oxvc&refer=us
Only two seats? That's all right then.
Let's see, Tom DeLay gave up his House seat to save just that ONE seat for the GOP - because saving the House is so critically important.
But we can afford to piss away two seats in NY.
Thanks, I feel better now. Maybe all we NY Republicans should just vote for Hillary in '06, since it won't make a lick of difference in any other race and she's gonna win anyway.
Boehlert is retiring so his seat is now an open one. I don't know which way it will go. There's no way that Walsh will go down. I can't comment on the others.
I don't think I've ever seen a poster on this forum as consistently negative as you.
You never have anything positive to say.
Your mother was a troll, and your father smells of elderberries.
I agree. I think News Max is BS too.
Personal attacks aside, if you don't want negative opinions, make more positive posts.
New York bad news ping
By the way, Boehlert has formally announced his retirement. The GOP nominee will be Ray Meier, a atate senator. The district has a significant GOP registration edge, and Meier should have a well-funded campaign. His likely Dem opponent is a district attorney from one of the counties in the district. A serious opponent, but even so, all things considered, I'd say it's very likely Meier will hold the seat for the GOP.
If the 'Rats do capture the House, they might be able to push through impeachment if they can enforce rigid party discipline (and maybe pick up a RINO or two), but it's highly unlikely they could come close to a conviction in the Senate (that would require a lot of Republican senators to vote against Bush). The goal might be just to get a higher number of senators to vote for conviction than voted to convict Clinton...it's mainly about payback (and weakening the President).
And .. I suppose that means that "we deserve" the same.
This logic escapes me. How does punishing the GOP HELP US ..??
Do people really want the Clinton MESS back in the WH ..?? or in the halls of Congress ..??
The GOP should spend in NY, including in the city, because that's the only way to build up a base. As long as the GOP writes us off, we'll continue to write them off. You have to campaign if you want to win -- now or in the future.
Could, may, might, maybe etc. Bah.
I strongly agree that the GOP should not throw in the towel in the Hillary race.
That said, most of Hillary's support in 2000 was concentrated in a few urban areas.
It's that kind of lack of support that won't produce any coattail effect in the congressional races in 2006.
Dick Morris? Is that you? And what have you done with carl?
All the while of course, ignoring Spencer, who was just as capable of losing, but who would have torn huge bloody chunks off Hillary's ugly posterior in the process.
Need somebody with the nerve to run a tabloid campaign, to revive Vince Foster, the Rape, etc.,etc., and harshly point out Hillary's role in each sordid affair. O course, this being New York, Hillary might still win, but that would wake up the rest of the country, who are not as stupid (Sorry, meant to say ugly and loud) as downstate New Yorkers. Of course, if even those urban losers didn't turn up as expected, there is always vote fraud.
John Sweenney, 20th District With 533 of 629 precincts, or 85 percent, reporting Sweeney had 155,086 votes, or 66 percent.
Kelly had 74,610 votes, representing 33 percent, according to The Associated Press.
Sherwood Boehlert, 24th District good riddance
Tom Reynolds, 26th District 55.6% in 2004 dailykos.com
James Walsh, 25th District Walsh, James T. Combined Parties: 189,063 90.39% of the vote.
Sue Kelly, 19th District Kelly, Sue W. Combined Parties: 175,401 66.74% of the vote.
The last 2 links come from the federal election results in 2004, pdf format. If you want to listen to Rahm Emanuel, there's a bridge I want to sell you.
Bloomberg Reveals a Rifle in His Past
2 Democrats Seeking Attorney General Nomination Spar Over a 'Pact' (NY)
FReepmail me if you want on or off my New York ping list.
I agree. The Boelhert seat is the one to watch. I don't see Sweeney (sp) going down.
This is rat wishful thinking. The numbers will simply NOT stay that big. A high school kid knows that. She is NOT well liked and neither is spitzer. Reagan was, Bush was ( at election time) and neither had long coat tails.
BWHAHAHAHAHAAA!!!
Great pic!
Be real careful with the "Fighting Dems." Most of them got no closer to the fighting than a military lawyer's office -- and the lawyers have had a dreadful effect on the war; they've been against the Joes and for the enemy to a great degree.
Massa's history? Not EVEN a lawyer. Wesley Clark's boy-toy. He was never a combat sailor, but a staff weenie that followed Clark around from assignment to assignment, taking care of his needs. He's pro-gay marriage, pro-socialist healthcare. (Like Clark, he's married... it's good for the career).
http://www.massaforcongress.com/newsroom.asp?ARTICLE3049=3414&PG3049=2
Kuhl's bad performance in 04 came when Dems in the courts leaked his sealed divorce records. Ugly stuff in there... but this year it's old news, and in 04 the NY dems timed it so that the leak came just before the election. Unless there's even worse dirt on him they don't have that tactic again.
Remember, Massa was a career Navy officer but never, ever commanded a vessel. Why? He never engaged in actual combat despite two dozen years drawing a check. And his "Capstone Military Assignment" was a "Special Assistant" to Wesley Clark. The Democrats are pretty quiet about that, and totally silent about what he was special assistant FOR: "Congressional liaison."
In other words, the Navy tagged this guy as a politician in uniform, and shuffled him to a shore billet where he could be with his own kind.
The voters have already spoken on Wesley Clark. I doubt that they will have much more enthusiasm for a guy whose career peaked as a Clark horse-holder and Congressional lickspittle.
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
LOL! Thanks for the update and link on Massa. Sounds like he was handpicked from Hillery's plantation.
I wonder what's with Kuhl that the Conservatives didn't back him in 2004?
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
I understand what you mean .. but if OUR NOT VOTING FOR REPUBS causes the DEMOCRATS TO WIN - that is not the outcome I want.
If the dems win back the House, the first item on the agenda will be impeaching Bush - does anybody in their right mind want that to happen ..??
We must get a grip on this before the election - because we cannot afford to have the democrats back in office - EVER!!
hey Carl:
If Bush is impeached he needs to be convicted by 2/3 the senate..aint gonna happen
Wow, a Democratic year in NY? I have to think real hard to remember the last time that happened! When did the last one end?
By logic of this article, PA would have seen huge losses for the Dems in 1998 in the House, just to name one of many examples that didn't come true. I don't understand how something like this gets published.
Kuhl is considered highly vulnerable. Pres. Bush visited his district in March for a Social Security town hall meeting, at Kuhl's request. There's lots of local media attention to these under-the-MSM-radar daily events.
Worth repeating... but I don't see any Hillary coattails.
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