Skip to comments.Outbreak: Could it happen here?
Posted on 04/24/2006 7:33:33 AM PDT by Lady GOP
Pick up a newspaper, turn on the TV and its there: the news about avian flu.
It can be alarming sometimes, often confusing. And nearly everyone has the same question: Could it happen here?
In 1996, a new and particularly deadly strain of avian flu was found in a goose in China. It was found a year later in Hong Kong and six people died from the virus. They were the first known human cases.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
follow link for report in its entirity
I prefer the Swine flu, I survived that debacle
Am going to agree with you re the safety on some vaccines but disagree about not paying attention to this warning.
Its going to happen, because Mexico, Canada and the US are planning for it.
Advancing Cooperation on Avian and Pandemic Influenza. Leaders agreed to the following
principles to guide collaboration on all stages of avian or pandemic influenza management:
Share information among our governments in an open, timely and transparent manner.
Adopt an integrated and comprehensive approach that incorporates animal and public
health aspects in managing avian influenza and influenza pandemics.
Ensure coordination within our respective national governments on all aspects of
emergency management for an avian influenza outbreak or a human influenza pandemic,
by building on existing mechanisms of cooperation and strengthening them as required.
Coordinate our actions and leverage our respective capacities to ensure rapid and
effective steps are taken to deal with avian influenza outbreaks or a human influenza
pandemic in North America.
Advise one another in advance of making any decision that could seriously affect the
Base our actions on the best available science and evidence-based decision-making.
Agree that the imposition and removal of veterinary or public health measures on the
movement of people, animals, and goods, under our national laws and international
obligations, will not be more restrictive or maintained longer than necessary to achieve
the veterinary or public health objective so as to avoid unnecessary interference with the
movement of people and goods within North America.
Ensure that the business continuity plans of our respective governments consider the
highly interconnected nature of our economies.
Strive to utilize clear and consistent messaging to the public and international
organizations that is proactive, timely and accurate.
Check this gem out:
so as to avoid unnecessary interference with the
movement of people and goods within North America
Can't stop the illegals if we have a disease pandemic in the US.
They were talking (HHS Secretary) about the importance of securing the borders with the outbreak of a pandemic.
well, you may be right, but here's a counterpoint to consider:
The death rate is not being overrated as half of those contracted are dead. (known cases)
ping. Did you see this show last night? I missed it.
>"Its going to happen, because Mexico, Canada and the US are planning for it."<
-From my link on post number 8:
According to this trilateral agreement, they are not planning to stop any movement of anything across the border.
Well from my observation Bush seems extremely worried about this. Perhaps the liberals BOOBS in the media could take notice of it rather than their constant Bush bashing rants and attacks on Bush.
I disagree. Consider the following statement by Dick Thompson, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization (WHO).:
'Relatives of avian flu patients have asymptomatic cases"
by Robert Roos. CIDRAP News. March 9, 2005:
"...thousands of mild and asymptomatic cases are going undetected as detailed by Dick Thompson, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization (WHO).
In an interview granted to CIDRAP (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy) News on March 9, 2005, Thompson said that the case-fatality rate had been overstated.
Documented cases were those where the patients were sick enough to seek medical care in a hospital and, predictably, they had very poor outcomes. He concluded:
Surely others were infected and either not getting sick or not getting sick enough to seek treatment at a hospital. Factoring those into the CFR [case-fatality rate] has been impossible. We simply don't know the denominator.
To illustrate, if 62 people died, but 10,000 had actually been infected, the death rate would be 0.62 percent, essentially insignificant. Therefore, without knowing how many are infected, the death rate is being highly inflated.
yeah. Many socialists would love a pandemic, provided they were spared!
I have absoultely no doubt that the scenario MSNBC presented is feasable. But it is still fiction. Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda.
The bottom line is that there are a lot of professional people out in the world, actively studying how best to prevent the spread of avian flu, on many different levels.
The biggest thing that protects the US by default is that our domestic poultry industry has been raising birds for years in almost complete isolation from outside contamination from diseases that are known to be spread by migrating flocks of wild birds. You cannot even drive onto the property of a commercial chicken farm without having your car, and shoes decontaminated, but you'll also be donning a protective suit; to protect the birds from what you might be bringing in to them
Asia has been hit particularly hard because their animal husbandry is much different from ours, in that their poultry is raised by citizens all over the place, in the open air, where they are easily contaminated and infected from migrating wild birds..
A tangential issue that deserves mention as well is the fact that there hasn't been a case of porcine-transmitted trichinosis in the US since the sixties, because we improved dramatically, the conditions under which we raise hogs, and have essentially eliminated that hazard from our foodchain...
I just do not believe that it is possible to have another pandemic like the media keeps predicting. Not only does the US lead the world in safe production of food, our Medicine and Sanitation standards are light years beyond what they were at the turn of the last century. It's certainly possible for an outbreak to occur, but I simply do not believe that it would be able to spread very far before it could be stopped. To believe that is to give way too much credibility to MSNBC, instead of the entire health care industry, and all of Medical Science.
IMHO, MSNBC produced a pretty good made for TV featurette, but that is all. It is not News, it is Fiction.
Draft report of the Committee on Hemispheric Security with respect to the recommendations of the Inter-American Committee on Natural Disaster Reduction CP/CSH-428/02
Report of the Committee on Hemispheric Security with respect to the recommendations of The Inter-American Committee on Natural Disaster Reduction (IACNDR) CP/CSH-433/02 rev.1
Draft resolution: Natural Disaster Reduction CP/CSH-452/02 rev.2
Recommendations on natural disaster reduction to the Organization of American States and its Subsidiaries CP/CSH-666/05 rev. 1
Draft resolution: Natural disaster reduction and risk management CP/CSH-706/05 rev. 3
Exploring the disaster-development-security link [Presentation by the United nations Development Programme (UNDP) Liaison Officer in Grenada, Mrs. Michelle Gyles-McDonnough] CP/CSH-708/05
Recommendations of the Committee on Hemispheric Security on natural disaster reduction and risk management CP/CSH-718/05
the mortality rate is inflated, according to Dick Thompson, ) infectious disease spokesman for the World Health Organization):
"The CFR [case-fatality rate] had to be overstated. The cases we were sure of were those which were sick enough to go to a hospital and these extreme cases have very poor outcomes. Surely others were infected and either not getting sick or not getting sick enough to seek treatment at a hospital. Factoring those into the CFR has been impossible. We simply don't know the denominator." [~Dick Thompson,WHO]
Dr. Arlene King of the Public Health Agency of Canada told CIDRAP News that researchers in Asia have conducted serologic surveys in an effort to find asymptomatic cases, but full results have not been released yet. In a newspaper report yesterday, she said, the WHO's Peter Horby reported that a serologic survey of Asian healthcare workers who had cared for avian flu patients found no evidence of infection among the workers. King is director of the agency's Immunization and Respiratory Infections Division in Ottawa...."
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