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Supply fears will keep oil price high, volatile: CIMB ["could also surge closer to US$90"]
Business Times ^ | 05MAY06 | Adeline Paul Raj

Posted on 05/04/2006 3:25:01 PM PDT by familyop

THE price of crude oil is likely to remain high and volatile this year, averaging at between US$70 and US$80 per barrel, says CIMB Securities economist Lee Heng Guie.

Prices will remain high due to global concerns about the supply of the commodity, especially with the Western world's intensifying dispute with Iran.

Oil hit a record US$72.20 a barrel on April 18 as Iran defied pressure to halt its nuclear programme, raising fears of a cut in supplies from the world's fourth biggest crude exporter.

CIMB recently raised its crude oil price target, expecting an average of US$68 a barrel this year and US$60 next year.

Lee said prices could also surge closer to US$90 a barrel if there were further negative developments.

He said the higher oil price is generally positive for Malaysia given that it is a net exporter of oil and thus, stands to benefit from higher earnings. Crude oil accounts for about 5 per cent of exports.

"The Government will gain from higher petrol income tax collections, and Petronas can contribute more in terms of dividend," Lee told reporters on the sidelines of a conference organised by CIMB yesterday.

He said that if larger economies like the US, Europe or Japan slowed down because of the higher oil prices, Malaysia would inevitably be affected too.

He estimated that every increase of US$10 a barrel would have the potential to cut between 0.5-0.7 percentage points off Malaysia's economic growth.

Despite the high price concerns, he is maintaining his economic growth forecast of 5.3 per cent this year.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 80; 90; arab; arabia; emirates; gulf; iran; missiles; nuclear; oil; on; persian; saudi; terror; uae; united; war; weapons
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1 posted on 05/04/2006 3:25:04 PM PDT by familyop
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To: familyop

Supply fears, greedy Americans, the price of tea in China, whatever. It'll stay high because they know they have us over a barrel and will pay whatever they demand.


2 posted on 05/04/2006 3:28:28 PM PDT by mtbopfuyn (I think the border is kind of an artificial barrier - San Antonio councilwoman Patti Radle)
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To: familyop

"Lee said prices could also surge closer to US$90 a barrel if there were further negative developments."

Cool, the bird flu will keep me home so I won't need to drive anywhere. I'll still be able to tune in and watch Bruce Willis destroy the asteroid that's headed this way.


3 posted on 05/04/2006 3:29:19 PM PDT by L98Fiero (I'm worth a million in prizes.)
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To: familyop
I heard some rumblings this morning {on CNBC} from a Republican congress critter about possibly passing a law raising the margin requirement for oil futures trading. This could knock out the $10 - $15 per barrel speculative part of the price.
4 posted on 05/04/2006 3:31:34 PM PDT by I Drive Too Fast
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To: L98Fiero
"Cool, the bird flu will keep me home so I won't need to drive anywhere. I'll still be able to tune in and watch Bruce Willis destroy the asteroid that's headed this way."

...not mention the important news about celebrities like Patrick Kennedy, Anna Nicole Smith and crimes committed against individuals in Nowwhereville, Somestate!

Report: Iran Makes Fuel Rods for Reactors
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1626869/posts

No country will dare attack Iran – top military commander
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1626916/posts
5 posted on 05/04/2006 3:35:50 PM PDT by familyop (Essayons)
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To: familyop

it should test 97-ish; but it would be a flaming sell if it did, imho.


6 posted on 05/04/2006 3:43:07 PM PDT by the invisib1e hand (Orthodoxy: The antidote to the Dictatorship of the Media.)
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To: familyop

Todays price drop has them worried that they can't get there millions out of the oil market before they make less profit. So they conjure up a story like this. Anyone else notice this trend?


7 posted on 05/04/2006 3:43:41 PM PDT by Racer1
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To: familyop

Did you see that the Socialist Paradise of Venezuela is having to buy oil on the spot market from Russia in order to meet it's contracts? Who would think that the nationalization of an industry by a Socialist government would effect production rates? Go figure.


8 posted on 05/04/2006 3:46:45 PM PDT by bondjamesbond (RICE 2008)
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To: Racer1
Anyone else notice this trend?

No, and I don't think this story will move the oil markets.

9 posted on 05/04/2006 3:48:16 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: bondjamesbond
"Did you see that the Socialist Paradise of Venezuela is having to buy oil on the spot market from Russia in order to meet it's contracts? Who would think that the nationalization of an industry by a Socialist government would effect production rates? Go figure."

Thanks for the news, and that's a good point.
10 posted on 05/04/2006 3:52:23 PM PDT by familyop ("Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists." --President Bush)
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To: bondjamesbond
Who would think that the nationalization of an industry by a Socialist government would effect production rates? Go figure.

LOL!

11 posted on 05/04/2006 3:54:34 PM PDT by syriacus (WHERE has Geo. Clooney been for ALL the years that Franklin Graham has helped the Sudanese?)
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To: I Drive Too Fast

If the futures market is suppressed, that will just move volatility into the spot market.

One purpose of the futures market is to smooth out prices. If 'speculators' are buying oil because they think it will be worth more in the future, that raises the price now, but lowers the price in the future.


12 posted on 05/04/2006 3:56:16 PM PDT by proxy_user
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To: Dog Gone
"No, and I don't think this story will move the oil markets."

...agreed, for all practical purposes. The same applies to most stories, for and against, IMO.

Some investors react quickly to what happens today. Others consider what is likely to happen in the future.
13 posted on 05/04/2006 3:57:15 PM PDT by familyop ("Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists." --President Bush)
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To: proxy_user

Thats it! Weve seen the top. Next stop $60 and stock market at new all time highs.


14 posted on 05/04/2006 3:57:39 PM PDT by samadams2000 (Somebody important make The Call.....pitchforks and lanterns.!)
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To: familyop
Lee said prices could also surge closer to US$90 a barrel if there were further negative developments.

Good. I hope they climb even higher than that and stay up there. The more oil prices rise the more economically viable it becomes to develop alternative energy sources. And once it becomes profitable to invest in these, capitalism will take over and new technologies will flourish. Conversely, as long as oil is cheaper than any alternative and there is no free market incentive, we will never stop importing oil.

Yes, I do realize that this would hurt my wallet for a while. But skyrocketing gas prices are not only the most effective route to independence from foreign oil, they are the only route to independence from foreign oil.

15 posted on 05/04/2006 3:58:42 PM PDT by Antonello (Oh my God, don't shoot the banana!)
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To: proxy_user
If 'speculators' are buying oil because they think it will be worth more in the future, that raises the price now, but lowers the price in the future.

I'm obviously getting stupid because I have no idea how that equation works.

16 posted on 05/04/2006 4:00:42 PM PDT by Glenn (There is a looming Tupperware shortage. Plan appropriately.)
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To: mtbopfuyn
Supply fears, greedy Americans, the price of tea in China, whatever. It'll stay high because they know they have us over a barrel and will pay whatever they demand.

Now hey, that's not the right attitude. After all, it's a totally free and competitive market. Toothpaste is $100 a gallon and you don't complain. No one is greedy. The poor oil companies are almost losing money. You should be going into epileptic seizures of happiness about high gas prices. If you don't, you're a DU commie.

At least that's what the stockbrokers around here told me.
17 posted on 05/04/2006 4:05:54 PM PDT by mysterio
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To: Antonello
"The more oil prices rise the more economically viable it becomes to develop alternative energy sources."

Then you should certainly read about "Lardinol" and the founding of FLAB.

The new Mississippi oil boom
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1626935/posts
18 posted on 05/04/2006 4:08:50 PM PDT by familyop ("Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists." --President Bush)
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To: I Drive Too Fast

Another story about raising margin requirements and speculation.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,166038,00.html

A speculation premium of $15 on 85 million barrels sold per day adds up to some serious coin.


19 posted on 05/04/2006 4:10:18 PM PDT by Wristpin ("The Yankees announce plan to buy every player in Baseball....")
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To: familyop

We keep being told that the high prices are a result of supply and demand, pure and simple, but do we really believe that, suddenly, economies like China's and India's are so strong they can compete head-to-head with us for a limited supply of oil? These are countries where the water buffalo is still a major source of agricultural power, fer Pete's sake!


20 posted on 05/04/2006 4:13:38 PM PDT by Grut
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