Pollution, Greenhouse Gases and Climate Clash in South Asia, Study Shows (Dimming=cooling=warming)

A new analysis by scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, has produced surprising results showing how air pollution, global warming-producing greenhouse gases and natural fluctuations in the climate may have a range of significant consequences on the world's most populous region.

As the tropical Indian Ocean heats up due to greenhouse gases, the authors say, the northern Indian Ocean, which is adjacent to highly populated regions, is not warming as quickly as the rest of the ocean, resulting in increased drought conditions that could hold repercussions for more than 2 billion people in South Asia. These conditions impact a range of industries and resources, from agriculture to freshwater availability.

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I just can't figure this out.

As the tropical Indian Ocean heats up due to greenhouse gases, the authors say, the northern Indian Ocean, which is adjacent to highly populated regions, is not warming as quickly as the rest of the ocean, resulting in increased drought conditions

Greenhouse gas causes global warming, but the more highly populated areas are NOT warming like you would think if anthropogenic greenhouse gases are causing global warming, but instead cooling, causing droughts.

"The observed trend of reduced sunlight reaching the Earth's surface, with compensating solar heating aloft from the pollution, also called the 'brown haze,' appears to be masking the greenhouse warming in the northern Indian Ocean, while the greenhouse warming continues unabated in the southern Indian Ocean.

Global dimming (which I originally thought was a joke. I swear, this is becoming the next crisis) is preventing global warming, but since it's not over the southern ocean, global warming runs amuck. (Answer: Pollute more?)

We are starting to see that the air pollution affects sunlight and is potentially having a major disruption of the rain patterns, with some regions getting more and some less."

Pollute less, allow more global warming, to fix the drought?

"To adequately understand the processes that can throw our climate out of balance is among the most intellectually and technologically challenging issues facing mankind today."

Then what makes us so sure about what's causing what now?

scientists also warn of a reverse effect: "Greenhouse gases by themselves lead to large positive anomalies in the simulated Indian rainfall, which leads to the speculation that, when the South Asian aerosol pollution is cut down significantly, India may witness a large increase (10 to 20 percent) in monsoon rainfall, but be subject to a large surface warming due to the greenhouse gases.

So we're concerned about the fallout that will take place when pollution goes down? Should we start having pollution quotas? "However, a sudden reduction in air pollution without a concomitant reduction in global greenhouse gases also can accelerate the warming in South Asia because, according to the present simulations, ABCs have masked as much as 50 percent of the surface warming due to greenhouse gases."
So, let's get this straight. Pollutants (aerosols, particulate pollution and dust) are "masking" (read: decreasing) global warming in some areas, but not over the areas you'd think, the high population zones, because the dust clouds move out over the ocean, while in other areas, there isn't enough pollution to balance out, thus causing global warming. We don't want drought, but we can't reduce pollution so much that we have dangerous downpours. That about cover it? So it's all about balance in the end. Our enormous and highly variable climate is affected by thousands of different factors, and we can't lay the blame at any one specific factor.

Now who'da believed THAT?

"Greenhouse gases by themselves lead to large positive anomalies in the simulated Indian rainfall, which leads to the speculation that, when the South Asian aerosol pollution is cut down significantly, India may witness a large increase (10 to 20 percent) in monsoon rainfall, but be subject to a large surface warming due to the greenhouse gases."

IOW, We don't have the foggiest notion of what we're talking about.

We got models. We got computers. But we don't have enough fudge factors to do any history matching, much less prediction.

So we wander from point to point, and our mesh is way too big, and we don't know which fudge factors to apply to each mesh point, and ... golly gee, where's my gummit grant?

There was an interesting program the other day which may shed some light on this little complexity. It was part of a program regarding the 3 days without air traffic after 9/11 which apparently resulted in much less air particles (brown haze?) and more sun reaching the ground.

They referenced long term data on evaporation rates data collected for years in farm country from open round pans of water. When more sun hits the water surface of these pans, more water molecules evaporate and become water vapor. I always thought it was the heat that evaporated water, but apparently it is the direct effect of PHOTONS hitting the water surface that causes the evaporation.

Thus in the Northern Indian Ocean where the brown haze is worse, fewer photons will hit the water and less of it will evaporate to form the clouds that water the land and enable farming. This same problem occurred some years ago when European air pollution was affecting conditions in North Africa which led to the terrible Sahel drought. Now that Europe is cleaning up their air, the drought conditions in north Africa are not as bad.

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