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No aging, robot cars - and radical business plans
CNN ^ | 5/25/2006 | Chris Taylor

Posted on 05/26/2006 8:08:09 AM PDT by Neville72

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1 posted on 05/26/2006 8:08:11 AM PDT by Neville72
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To: PatrickHenry; b_sharp; neutrality; anguish; SeaLion; Fractal Trader; grjr21; bitt; KevinDavis; ...
FutureTechPing!
An emergent technologies list covering biomedical
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2 posted on 05/26/2006 8:13:48 AM PDT by AntiGuv ("..I do things for political expediency.." - Sen. John McCain on FOX News)
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To: Neville72
What if the exponential growth shown in Moore's Law applies not just to etching transistors in silicon chips, but to all of human progress and innovation?

I believe that Moore, at Intel, looked at historical data on transistor improvement. He charted what he found had occured, and he projected the curve into the future. Since that time, transistor improvement has pretty much kept pace. It was impressive for him to have spotted this trend based on historic data that was available to him at the time.

Now. Where is the historical data showing that all of human progress and innovation has been along an exponential curve. Hmmmmmmmm?

3 posted on 05/26/2006 8:15:56 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (Never question Bruce Dickinson!)
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To: Neville72
This is some profoundly distrubing stuff. And when I say disturbing, I don't mean it in a scarey, fear mongering way. I mean it quite plainly. The way we live, even the way we think of life will be profoundly changed. The way we live now will be disturbed, or rather disrupted, greatly. Science fiction authors have speculated about how profound these types of changes will be. A century or two from now, if we could travel to the future, we many not even be able to recognize civillization. It will be incredibly different. I do see a future where people and machines will by fused and our intellect will be partially, or even completely, digitized. We could very easily become chimeric hydbids of flesh and technology. What the moral and social implications will be are hard to tell, but I'm sure there will be plenty of debate.

I am also certain that the liberal moonbats will make the move to digitized intellect first since they will need less computing power to make the transition. McGyver could do it to them with an iPod, duct tape and paper clips.

4 posted on 05/26/2006 8:25:03 AM PDT by doc30 (Democrats are to morals what and Etch-A-Sketch is to Art.)
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To: Neville72

If Ray Kurzweil is 1/10 right we are in for a wild ride in the next 30 years

The Singularity is upon us

Call them what they are, socialists - They are not democrats.


5 posted on 05/26/2006 8:25:31 AM PDT by underbyte (Call them what they are, socialists - They are not democrats, liberals or progressives)
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To: doc30

Of course you need to remember that futurists also predicted we'd have personal jetpacks in the 80s, that there'd be massive starvation in the 90s, and that by the 2000s our average life expectancy would be well over 100. Being a futurist is the greatest job in the world, you can make up whatever crap you want, be wrong 100% of the time, and never get called on it, it's like being a weatherman only with better pay and travel on the lecture circuit.


6 posted on 05/26/2006 8:29:43 AM PDT by discostu (get on your feet and do the funky Alphonzo)
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To: underbyte

Why do you prefer the word "socialist" to "communist"?


7 posted on 05/26/2006 8:30:38 AM PDT by Iconoclast2 (Two wings of the same bird of prey . . .)
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To: discostu
"Of course you need to remember that SOME futurists also predicted we'd have personal jetpacks in the 80s, that there'd be massive starvation in the 90s, and that by the 2000s our average life expectancy would be well over 100.
8 posted on 05/26/2006 8:32:51 AM PDT by Protagoras ("A real decision is measured by the fact that you have taken a new action"... Tony Robbins)
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To: Iconoclast2
Why do you prefer the word "socialist" to "communist"?

Since they describe different things, we have to assume that he meant the word to describe his opinion of what the people are.

9 posted on 05/26/2006 8:34:40 AM PDT by Protagoras ("A real decision is measured by the fact that you have taken a new action"... Tony Robbins)
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To: underbyte
The problem that I see is that the technology will be misapplied. It will be invented for one purpose and the "politicians" or whoever is manipulating the levers of power will grab it to further control the population. As as example, many persons now enjoy the convenience of a cell phone, but the authorities can use it to track your movements. Mainframe computers can sort through 250 million records in less than a second. Big brother is truly watching you.
10 posted on 05/26/2006 8:34:49 AM PDT by Citizen Tom Paine (An old sailor sends)
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To: discostu

You are quite right. It is the visions of the future that are interesting, but when and if they come to pass is another thing all together. I wish I could get a job as one, but your predictions need to be an extrapolation of curent and past trends. And there are certain mile posts that must be met for each major transition. Once a particular milepost is reached, then newer and more exotic results will happen. But until then, only refinements in what we already have will happen.


11 posted on 05/26/2006 8:35:06 AM PDT by doc30 (Democrats are to morals what and Etch-A-Sketch is to Art.)
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To: Protagoras

Never seen a futurist be right, especially not with their big headline (ie attention, ie revenue) grabbing predictions. I enjoy futurists and read and watch many, but purely for the comedic value.


12 posted on 05/26/2006 8:35:50 AM PDT by discostu (get on your feet and do the funky Alphonzo)
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To: Neville72
I have been saying for years how with the increase in comp power we will see great innovations.

Just one example is rapid prototyping. e.g., 20 years ago if you wanted to invent something you would first need to design and engineer it, then physically build it to see if it works.

Now it can all be done in virtual space on a $1000 desktop computer.

And thats only the physical. We can now model and engineer the abstract. Meds, therapies, and so on. And its only going to move faster.

The best part it that this work is not just being done in the ivory towers of big universities. Its also being done by the ordinary guy in his basement.
13 posted on 05/26/2006 8:39:16 AM PDT by phs3
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To: discostu
that by the 2000s our average life expectancy would be well over 100.

While this hasn't happened yet, there are more people living to be 100 than there used to be. Human lifespan is increasing - and a life expectancy of 100 or 1000 is simply a matter of time, money and research. Given the falling birth rate in much of the developed world, that's a good thing.
14 posted on 05/26/2006 8:39:27 AM PDT by AnotherUnixGeek
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To: discostu

I remember it wasn't too long ago when cloning was widely regarded as implausible, or at least impractical for the next several decades.


15 posted on 05/26/2006 8:43:12 AM PDT by AntiGuv ("..I do things for political expediency.." - Sen. John McCain on FOX News)
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To: Protagoras

Futurists rarely take real-world factors into account (cost, practicality, resources, human nature) when forecasting what 'will be.' Just because something becomes possible doesn't mean that it becomes practical and preferable. And sometimes, like tabloid psychics, they're blowing smoke to promote themselves.


16 posted on 05/26/2006 8:43:26 AM PDT by atomicpossum (Replies must follow approved guidelines or you will be kill-filed without appeal.)
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To: doc30

No that's the great part about futurists, their predictions don't need to extrapolate on ANYTHING other than what people want to hear. When the world is a positive place they predict nice things, grand technological conquests; when people start getting despressed or anxious they predict terrible things, the meltdown of society under its own weight. If you review those three futurist predictions I listed above and think about the various moods of America in the last 50 years I bet you can guess which part of which decade each was made in. The job is entirely about selling people the BS they want to hear that moment. Right now America is in a mode where even though there are some rough edges to the world they've pretty much gotten tired of the doom and gloom crowd, and anyone over the age of 25 has pretty much seen society remade (mostly better, at the very least more convenient) by technology, so futurist predictions are once again about grand technological conquests, but with some rough edges on the side. Futurists are just sci-fi writers who've never figured out plot and characterization, both really write about now in the guise of the future, one is just more honest about it than the other.


17 posted on 05/26/2006 8:43:31 AM PDT by discostu (get on your feet and do the funky Alphonzo)
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Comment #18 Removed by Moderator

To: discostu
Of course you need to remember that futurists also predicted....

On the other hand, I was throwing away some old issues of Discover magazine not too long ago. I stopped to read one from the early 1980s (maybe even 1980) with predictions from futurists.

Several of them predicted that, by the turn of the century, there would be a gigantic system of inter-connected computers whereby ordinary people could trade & save a vast amount of information with others. And that it would completely alter our daily lives regarding how people will communicate each other, research info, etc.

19 posted on 05/26/2006 8:50:52 AM PDT by gdani
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To: discostu
And a few more things:

(1) What futurists "predicted we'd have personal jetpacks in the 80s"? Am I far off in guessing that your source for what futurists allegedly predicted amounts to little more than The Jetsons?

(2) An enviro-whacko Malthusian and a futurist are two very different things. In fact, enviro-whacko Malthusians are generally Luddites, the very opposite of futurists. Their dystopian visions are designed with the intent of casting humanity back into the same Dark Ages you likely pine for.

(3) The average life expectancy is constantly extending. For females in developed nations it is now in the 80s. The life expectancy would be in the 90s for both males & females if you eliminated lifestyle factors. More importantly, the increase of life expectancy has been very close to expectations for quite some while now. That is, here in reality, as opposed to your fantasy world.

20 posted on 05/26/2006 8:51:55 AM PDT by AntiGuv ("..I do things for political expediency.." - Sen. John McCain on FOX News)
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