Posted on 05/31/2006 8:59:43 AM PDT by philsfan24
The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Pennsylvania shows Republican Senator Rick Santorum solidifying his standing as most vulnerable congressional incumbent this election season.
Santorum now trails Democratic challenger Bob Casey 56% to 33% (see crosstabs). Our latest survey of the governor's race also brings good news for the Democrat in that contest.
Last month, Santorum trailed by thirteen percentage points. The incumbent began 2006 down by 20 points and closed to within single digits by March. That was before the Primary Election solidified Casey's position as the Democratic nominee.
Santorum continues to flounder with his base, attracting support from only 67% of GOP voters. Casey now attracts 87% of Democrats, a ten-point gain since our April 20 poll.
The Senate race has been enlivened of late by controversy over Santorum's official residence, with the incumbent accusing the Casey campaign of spying.
Senator Santorum is viewed favorably by 42% of likely voters, unfavorably by 47%. About a quarter, 26%, view Santorum Very Unfavorably.
Casey is viewed favorably by 59%, unfavorably by 28%, with 13% undecided.
Pennsylvania voters tend to trust Democrats more than Republicans on most issues, with the exception of national security. See our story on the gubernatorial race for details.
Senator Santorum has no presidential coattails to cling to: only 36% approve of the job President Bush is doing. Sixty-two percent (62%) disapprove including 45% who Strongly Disapprove.
On national security issues, the President's performance is rated fair or better by 62% of likely voters; 35% say Poor. About 45% give him a grade of Poor on immigration and the economy. On Iraq, 56% say Poor; on energy policy, 53% say Poor.
To date, our three-poll rolling averages of the Pennsylvania race have shown Santorum lagging by anywhere from eleven points to seventeen percentage points.
I thought Santorum was closing in. Not good.
It's MAY.
*****
Baloney ...... what old media/ HORSESH*T!
Santorum is one of the most solid and dependable pro-lifers in the Senate.
There's no guarantee that Casey will be pro-life like his father. He belongs to the generation that goes with the flow.
It aint over till its over..
and it aint over yet..
Battles and wars.
We might need to lose battles like this in order to win the war.
id trade santorum for swann winning the governorship but that doesnt look like its gonna happen either.
I heard that Casey was dumb enough to come out in favor of open borders.
Vulnerability?
This is serious disinfo .... and this is why this country is dying....... because slothful slugs like these pollsters are not put in jail for selling a defective product!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I say string them up in the public square!
Well, I trust Rassmussen. This is not good. Yes it's only May, but Santorum, the incumbent, should be ahead by 23%.
Yeah, all the Santorum haters should rejoice, another Dem could be added in the Senate to vote against judicial nominees. Congratulations.
Casey is an idiot.
"We might need to lose battles like this in order to win the war."
i understand the premise but i think this is the wrong battle to lose. although its a long shot we'll lose the senate, i dont want to take any risks if bush has the opporunity to pick another supreme court justice.
Yes, but that's a big gap for an incumbent to overcome. Santorum is good on a lot of issues, but he rubs the moderates you need to win the wrong way. I don't think there are enough conservatives of his stripe in Pennsylvania to win. In the Northeast, you have to be able to diffuse moderate distrust of 'hard line' conservatism if you want to win. Not that you have to be a moderate, just that you have to take your conservative positions in conciliatory ways. Santorum's "in your face" style just doesn't play that well at home.
This is a pretty big margin, and Santorum was reported as narrowing the lead in the last few weeks.
I don't doubt that Casey has a lead, but it's probably closer to 10% than 23%. Just my feeling.
Ouch!
23 points for an incumbent senator? santorum has a loooooooong way to go to pull this off. rasmussen strikes me as fair, and not another idiot liberal pollster.
What a crock of BS!
23 points for an incumbent senator? santorum has a loooooooong way to go to pull this off. rasmussen strikes me as fair, and not another idiot liberal pollster.
Santorum will win............ I'm in Pittsburgh............ and I know what's going on (I think).
Agreed!!! This is CRAP!!!
I'm afraid Pennsylvania is about to be lost to the left.
I thought Santorum was closing in. Not good.
He was until he blamed Casey for spying on him. That has been all over the Pennsylvania papers and has hurt alot. Not sure why he did that, but I am still confident that this situation will be forgotten by November. It is only June (basically).
One candidate is 46, the other 48. They're both of the same "generation", and Freepers have certainly accused Santorum of "going with the flow" on issues.
Hope so.
I'll play "fly in the oinment." Santorum's drop may just result from his distancing himself from President Bush. In particular, in his unwillingness to speak out strongly in support of Bush's war policy, his opposition to the ports deal, and him fooling himself into thinking that most Pennsylvanians oppose Bush's ideas on immigration.
Santorum's overall Senate performance can best be described as "weak-kneed."
That's so stunning in its ignorance that I'm almost speechless. Lose these battles in your own state. It's a miracle that we have somene like Santorum in Pennsylvania.
Here. Here!
This reminds me of the polls the media started running in 1996 saying that Dole was thirty points behind Clinton throughout. He lost by nine.
Isn't the mantra around here that all you have to do is run a real conservative and the voters will flock to him (or her)? From everything I've read, Santorum is a real conservative. Looks like that mantra needs a little tweeking.
Yes, he should, IF he was from Texas, and not Pennsylvania....a state that is trending more and more Democrat like the rest of the East Coast, as the more productive members of society keep moving South....
Thank the "I hate the immigration bill so I'm going to take it out on all Republicans even ones like Santorum who have nothing to do with it" group-think among some conservatives (watch how I'll be attacked on this thread by these same zombie non-thinkers just for saying that thus proving my point about the absolutist self-destruction among these people.)
No, Democratic and independent voters aren't the GOP's problem come this fall, but rather unthinking conservatives who want to have their little temper tantrum and put Pelosi in as Speaker of the House, Charlie Rangle as Ways and Means Chair, John Conyers as Judiciary Chair, Harry Reid as Senate Majority leader and Pat Leahy as Senate Judiciary Chair. Yup, those visceral non-thinkers will be the first to bitch about a Democratic majority and why the GOP isn't stopping them. They'll sure get much more of what they want when the Democrats control congress, right? I'm sure they'll get tough border control then and just oodles of spending cuts! Yup, it will be blue skies and green lights forever when the Democrats control congress, right absolutist right wingers???!!!
God spare me extremist thinking on both sides of the political divide. It's sinking this great nation.
Sorry Fletch, but Ricky is done you can stick a fork in him.
The mantra is true is you want to WIN; unfortunately, you can't win in states where the 'Rats have essentially a super-majority....in races that are in close states the Conservative is the only one that has a chance of winning - the squish will lose EVERY SINGLE TIME....(I am not counting liberal Democrat clones like Lincoln Chaffee...)
I dunno....I'm in Western PA and all I see for Santorm is apathy. I think that the poll is rather accurate...the base is not behind him this time, and the swing/middle are looking hard at Casey.
So much for the GOP majority in the Senate.
However, when it comes to economic policy, energy policy, and the War in Iraq, Democrats are favored by a wide margin.
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Seems to mirror the national polls.
The GOP loses Santorum and MAYBE one or two other seats, gains in Minnesota and possibly, just possibly Michigan. There are a few other vulnerable D seats. The GOP does not lose the majority in the Senate this fall, even without Santorum.
Sorry, but this is utter nonsense, and Rasmussen---who in my view had VERY little credibility even after the last election---has lost it all. There is simply no way Santorum is this far down, esp. when two consecutive polls had put him in low single digits.
The hilarious thing, or probably tragic is more the word, is it's those same conservatives who are saying that about "give voters a true conservative and people will vote for him" who are now withholding their support for Santorum, that are part of that 33% who say they won't vote for him because dammit they're mad at Republicans! Yet Santorum has been at the forefront of the conservative movement, constantly speaking up for the pet causes of this crowd that now is withholding their support from him and all Republicans other than Tom Tancredo because of their absolutist psychosis!
Another thing that sticks in their craw is "how dare Santorum campaign for Arlen Specter?!" It would be unprecendented for a Senator of the same party to campaign against his senior senator from the same state. Sorry, but like it or not that just isn't done. So because Santorum was decent, as much as I am not thrilled with Specter, paid back all the help Specter gave him in helping Santorum get elected and honored tradition these freaks will now turn on a man who had worked for their causes tirelessly and given them one of the most conservative voting records in the Senate, if not THE most conservative.
These conservative absolutists have a self-destructive bent that rivals that of jihadist suicide bombers. If you think about it, it's the same mindset.
This is probably tied to the whole "Santorum doesn't live in Pennsylvania" discussion. He has a house there, and a house in virginia, and some reports are that his "house" in pennsylvania doesn't have any furniture.
When accused, Santorum charged Casey with spying on his house and threatening the lives of his children -- but his opponents say that since his children don't LIVE in the house, they weren't threatened.
Rick seems to be attacked for things a lot of senators and representatives do -- live near where they work. But the charges are sticking.
Add to that the conservatives who hate him because he backed Specter over Toomey, and you have a man who gets only 67% of the republican vote.
If the conservatives wanted to run a primary candidate against him, I'd support them in that effort (I wouldn't support their candidate, but I would approve of using the primary). But you're just shooting yourself in the foot if you elect a democrat for your conservative senator, just because he prevented you from having another conservative senator.
Less than 10% of eligable voters vote in primaries- in my district alone only 35 people voted last turn. We unseated an incumbant IN THE PRIMARY locally.
I pay very little, if any, attention to polls. As the cliche goes, the "poll" that counts is the one on election day.
Another thing: it's the end of May -- a lot can happen between now and November.
But here in the real PA, we trust people who earn it.
Not because they have a (D) or (R)
To say otherwise is, IMHO, BS!
My 2 cents: A lot of dem pro aborters will stay home rather than vote for pro life Casey. They are already cheezed because they don't have a pro choice candidate.
Ever since the primary, the Inquirer is convinced Republicans are in trouble because some state rinos got kicked out. Replacing rinos with true Republicans is not a sign that the Pubbies are losing. Wait until the general election, when the Democrat incumbents get thrown over for Republican challengers.
Can you believe all this 'doom and gloom'?
And all because of one stinking poll in May!
We PA Pubbies had our temper tantrum. In the primary. We through out a couple of state level rinos for some red meat conservatives. Santorium is on the right side on the immigration issue. He does not favor amnesty.
You're right, you guys did have quite a house cleaning. I don't know what accounts for Santorum's weakness among his base unless it's a bunch of sissy moderate Republicans. Either that or the poll is just off. But I think there is a certain element of "We'll make them all pay" among the base. I sure hope they pass this turd soon and get back to a little sanity.
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