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Camry Hybrid Isn't Worth It
PanAsianBiz ^ | June 6, 2006 | Dr. Bill Belew

Posted on 06/06/2006 6:16:07 PM PDT by G. Stolyarov II

A Camry hybrid costs about $5,000 more than it's nonhybrid brother, or is it sister?

If a driver goes 15,000 miles a year with an efficiency of 39mpg s/he will save about $500/yr. Easy math. It will take 10 years to get your money back.

The good news is a Toyota will last 10 years and 150,000 miles. The bad news is Americans won't drive the same car for that long. But then neither will anybody else in any other country. The Japanese will change cars every 3-5 years.

This is one of the reasons why the hybrid market only makes up 1.2% of US vehicle sales.

So, does that mean hybrids aren't worth it?

Hardly...what it means is if more people bought them the price would go down.

It also means that money is spent in making cars rather than consuming gasoline... and there is a different kind of savings there.

The question - are there trade-offs worth it?


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Japan
KEYWORDS: camry; consumerculture; consumers; energy; gasoline; hybrid; hybridcars; oil; opportunitycosts; plannedobsolescence; savings; toyota; tradeoffs; transportation
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This analysis illustrates that there simply is no need yet for a massive conversion to hybrid automobiles; there is more than enough oil in the world, and driving gasoline-powered automobiles is less expensive in the long run. If and when real scarcity issues arise with fossil fuels, they will be reflected by oil prices higher than anything we have yet seen (and we have not seen extremely high prices yet, especially compared to Europe). Then the conversion to hybrid cars will become profitable, and people will voluntarily make the shift without the need for environmental activism to push them along. See Dr. Belew's blog: PanAsianBiz
1 posted on 06/06/2006 6:16:12 PM PDT by G. Stolyarov II
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To: G. Stolyarov II

No hybrid is worth it.


2 posted on 06/06/2006 6:17:20 PM PDT by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: G. Stolyarov II

It's even worse, if you take interest into consideration.


3 posted on 06/06/2006 6:17:38 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: G. Stolyarov II

Better yet. My friends VW Golf TDI diesel regularly gets 50mpg at highway speeds.... 75 mph in Utah. No hybrid can do that.

The future is turbo diesels... not hybrids.


4 posted on 06/06/2006 6:19:16 PM PDT by Seruzawa (If you agree with the French raise your hand - If you are French raise both hands.)
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To: xcamel
No hybrid is worth it.

Agreed ... Add to the costs $7,000 to replace the battery every 7-8 years.
5 posted on 06/06/2006 6:20:32 PM PDT by One_who_hopes_to_know
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To: xcamel
f a driver goes 15,000 miles a year with an efficiency of 39mpg s/he will save about $500/yr. Easy math. It will take 10 years to get your money back.

Who the hell drives only 15,000 miles a year except for the 80-year-old grandmother who only goes to church on Sundays? I drive 15,000 miles a year just going to work.

And what is all the fussing on the Free Republic about hybrids? What is wrong with hybrids? You don't have to be Governor Moonbeam or ALgore to like a hybrid. Hybrids are going to be the future of the car industry. The internal combustion engine is on the way out and hybrids are just the beginning. Get used to it. Soon we are going to be driving in battery-operated cars in which you type in the destination and then the car drives itself, automatically compensating for traffic and taking alternate routes as necessary. Then we will be taking to the skies as "personal airplanes" will become commonplace.

6 posted on 06/06/2006 6:23:04 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (I think Randy Travis must be paying his bills on home computer by now)
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To: G. Stolyarov II

So? To some folks "hybrids" are live wives?


7 posted on 06/06/2006 6:23:42 PM PDT by isthisnickcool (What is it about "illegal" you don't understand?)
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To: G. Stolyarov II

Diesel is the way to go. A good diesel-powered auto will go 400,000 miles or more. Not only do the match the hybrids in fuel economy, they save tons of energy and environmental impact by simply lasting longer.


The energy savings and environmental impact of hybrid will be dwarfed by losses in both areas when cars need to be replaced far sooner thier diesel counterpart. I'm betting that few, if any, hybrids will get new batteries when they go bad, and the car will be scrapped. Furthermore, no one is talking about the environmental impact of building heavy-metal batteries, and disposing of the same at salvage.

Hybrid technology works well - every locomotive in the modern world uses it (diesel-electric) - but those vehicles are built to much different standards, and used in much different ways.


8 posted on 06/06/2006 6:25:00 PM PDT by TWohlford
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To: isthisnickcool

I advocate gong to sail cars out here in the west. If windwagons were good enough for our forebears, why not sail cars for us?


9 posted on 06/06/2006 6:26:01 PM PDT by sailor4321
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To: G. Stolyarov II
The good news is a Toyota will last 10 years and 150,000 miles. The bad news is Americans won't drive the same car for that long.

My 1986 (original owner) Honda Civic hatchback is at 252,000 miles and still going strong!!

I still get 34 mpg.

10 posted on 06/06/2006 6:27:33 PM PDT by paulat
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To: Seruzawa

add HPDI 2-stroke engines to that list.


11 posted on 06/06/2006 6:28:03 PM PDT by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: G. Stolyarov II
The good news is a Toyota will last 10 years and 150,000 miles. The bad news is Americans won't drive the same car for that long. But then neither will anybody else in any other country. The Japanese will change cars every 3-5 years.

Bad analysis to support a reasonable point ...

It doesn't matter whether people sell their cars before they recoup whatever savings on gas are imagined, because this will be figured into the sale price when they dispose of the car (assuming it is drivable).

ML/NJ

12 posted on 06/06/2006 6:28:20 PM PDT by ml/nj
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To: SamAdams76

If God had wanted hybrid cars He wouldn't have created the internal combustion engine.


13 posted on 06/06/2006 6:29:12 PM PDT by billhilly (Tagline goes here.)
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To: G. Stolyarov II
When they come out with an SUV or pickup hybrid that doesn't cost a dime more in either cost or maintenance, has the same torque and acceleration, horsepower, interior room, and is the spittin' image of it's non-hybrid counterpart, then I'll consider buying one.
14 posted on 06/06/2006 6:31:23 PM PDT by Fruitbat
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To: xcamel

"add HPDI 2-stroke engines to that list."

There was a local company that chased 2-cycle technology for years before throwing in the towel. Tiny little engines, great fuel economy, wonderful performance... and horrible emissions.

If someone ever gets the emissions part figured out, and has proven reliability, all in a package that is as cheap as a conventional motor, they might have something.


15 posted on 06/06/2006 6:31:32 PM PDT by TWohlford
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To: One_who_hopes_to_know
Add to the costs $7,000 to replace the battery every 7-8 years.

An 8 year old car that needs $7K is more likely to be junked than fixed (unless it's Rolls or some such)

16 posted on 06/06/2006 6:31:40 PM PDT by SauronOfMordor (A planned society is most appealing to those with the arrogance to think they will be the planners)
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To: sailor4321

I meant that hybrids are like "wives" to some people. You need to get a newer one every three or five years.


17 posted on 06/06/2006 6:32:18 PM PDT by isthisnickcool (What is it about "illegal" you don't understand?)
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To: TWohlford

I've always believed diesel cars and pickups should have the exhaust pipe in the front. The drivers can then enjoy what the rest of us get.


18 posted on 06/06/2006 6:32:24 PM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: billhilly

Then why did he create the horse and buggy?


19 posted on 06/06/2006 6:33:26 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (I think Randy Travis must be paying his bills on home computer by now)
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To: Fruitbat

"When they come out with an SUV or pickup hybrid...."

I'd love a hybrid pickup that has 110 VAC and 220VAC jacks for powering tools, etc. A few hundred thousand of those driving our streets would come in real handy in the event of a massive power outage - can you imagine how handy they'd have been in the Katrina aftermath?


20 posted on 06/06/2006 6:33:46 PM PDT by TWohlford
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To: Seruzawa
My 2003 VW Jetta TDI 5-speed ALWAYS gets at least 51 mpg and a best of 58.75 mpg. With over 108,000 miles on the little beast.

The VW too, come at a premium over the gas VW's, but it is worth it to me ... simple technology, no huge batteries to replace for $4-5,000 every 80K miles. Just change the oil (synthetic) & rotate the tires every 5K, fuel/air filter ever 10K miles and your all set.
21 posted on 06/06/2006 6:33:49 PM PDT by MaDeuce (Do it to them, before they do it to you! (MaDuce = M2HB .50 BMG))
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To: SamAdams76
Every bad thing that everyone says about hybrids, or ethanol, is true.

But I don't care, because our involvement with Saudi Arabia and the rest of those camel jockeys constitutes a true national emergency, and the cost of getting crude oil to make gasoline from them (and I don't just mean the cost in dollars) is going to rise for the whole rest of your and my life.

Every gallon that a hybrid doesn't burn, every gallon that an ethanol-burner doesn't use, is a step towards national security and freedom from war.

I like turbodiesels, too.

22 posted on 06/06/2006 6:34:38 PM PDT by Jim Noble (And you know what I'm talkin' 'bout!)
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To: SamAdams76

And then Mr Robinson all evil in the world will be gone.


23 posted on 06/06/2006 6:34:40 PM PDT by driftdiver
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

"I've always believed diesel cars and pickups should have the exhaust pipe in the front. The drivers can then enjoy what the rest of us get."

You obviously haven't followed a newer diesel, have you? No soot, no obnoxious fumes (at least not like it used to be). If you haven't tried diesel in the past 5 years, you haven't tried diesel.


24 posted on 06/06/2006 6:35:14 PM PDT by TWohlford
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To: G. Stolyarov II

My Toyota Scion XA gets 36mpg average and costs 14K with automatic and everything but cruise control. It's huge inside and cruises at 80 all day.

The hybrid cars aren't there yet.


25 posted on 06/06/2006 6:35:43 PM PDT by Poser (Willing to fight for oil)
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To: ml/nj
You're right -- I was going to point out the same thing. The acid-test will be how well the hybrid holds its value in the used-car market. If it just depreciates at the same rate as an ordinary car, then it looks like it might be cost-effective. However, if the electrical components depreciate faster -- then it's going to cost more than an ordinary car.
26 posted on 06/06/2006 6:36:39 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: G. Stolyarov II

My idea of a hybrid was my brother's 64 GTO, with a 600 hp 396.


27 posted on 06/06/2006 6:37:00 PM PDT by philetus (Keep doing what you always do and you'll keep getting what you always get.)
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To: G. Stolyarov II
If a driver goes 15,000 miles a year with an efficiency of 39mpg s/he will save about $500/yr. Easy math. It will take 10 years to get your money back.

I don't think you are supposed to talk about that.

28 posted on 06/06/2006 6:37:06 PM PDT by humblegunner (If you're gonna die, die with your boots on.)
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To: G. Stolyarov II
we have not seen extremely high prices yet, especially compared to Europe

I saw a report that, of the $6.50+ per gallon they pay in Britain (after converting units), over $4.50 is in taxes. The REAL price was actually lower than U.S.

29 posted on 06/06/2006 6:37:38 PM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: TWohlford
Check out Chevy Silverado or GMC Sierra hybrids -- they have the 110/220 VAC outlets built in. These are "mild" hybrids -- not as complex as the Toyota system -- just a big battery, and a combination generator/motor attached to the engine.
30 posted on 06/06/2006 6:40:02 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: TWohlford
I'd love a hybrid pickup that has 110 VAC and 220VAC jacks for powering tools, etc. A few hundred thousand of those driving our streets would come in real handy in the event of a massive power outage - can you imagine how handy they'd have been in the Katrina aftermath?

Yeah, but LOL, I think that Katrina aftermath was beyond a few wired pickups. LOL

31 posted on 06/06/2006 6:40:18 PM PDT by Fruitbat
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
I've always believed diesel cars and pickups should have the exhaust pipe in the front. The drivers can then enjoy what the rest of us get.

Actually, particulate emissions from diesel engines (what produces the foul smell) are easily controllable, and have been in places, such as the EU. There is currently no economic incentive, however, for diesel manufacturers outside of the EU to control emissions, although the Bush Administration EPA is putting in place modest particulate restrictions on interstate trucking.

The point of all that is that you can have diesel cars without the smell if you want them, as the technology exists today.

32 posted on 06/06/2006 6:41:13 PM PDT by Alter Kaker ("Whatever tears one sheds, in the end one always blows one's nose." - Heine)
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To: xcamel
If a driver goes 15,000 miles a year with an efficiency of 39mpg s/he will save about $500/yr.

The math is way off. 15,000 mpy @ 29 vs 39 @2.50/gal is not a savings of $500.

33 posted on 06/06/2006 6:41:57 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: Fruitbat

In the land of the total blackout, the man with a genset is king. :-)


34 posted on 06/06/2006 6:42:21 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: xcamel

We have a Prius, and we love it!!! However, we didn't buy it to save money or to help the environment. We bought it because it is quiet and fun to drive!!!!!! It's fun because the gas motor isn't going at lights, when going downhill, or when going slow. It is so much quieter than any other car I've ridden in. It's more fun to drive than any other car we've owned including a Mazda RX-7, Toyota Celica, and SUVs. The acceleration is also great because the transmission works differently. You go from 0-60 very quickly!

We bought ours the first year they came out, and it is still doing great. We've only had to replace tires on it. I think it has about 100,000 miles on it.


35 posted on 06/06/2006 6:42:33 PM PDT by luckystarmom
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To: SamAdams76
"Hybrids are going to be the future of the car industry. The internal combustion engine is on the way out and hybrids are just the beginning. Get used to it. Soon we are going to be driving in battery-operated cars in which you type in the destination and then the car drives itself, automatically compensating for traffic and taking alternate routes as necessary. Then we will be taking to the skies as "personal airplanes" will become commonplace."

Man I need to unwind ... Sam, send me some of that stuff your smoking. I need to relax in that world you envision.

I can see it now ... teams of little electric cars trying to pull a Cat excavator or D8 dozer down the highway ... or better yet teams of little electric backhoes trying to do what one old fashion diesel backhoe use to do.

Come on!! Smarten up ... fossil fuels are here to stay for at least 50 or 75 years ... then you'll have hydrogen vehicles ... now your talking!
36 posted on 06/06/2006 6:42:35 PM PDT by MaDeuce (Do it to them, before they do it to you! (MaDuce = M2HB .50 BMG))
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To: TWohlford

GMC has been making 2-stroke diesels for decades. They are inthousands of trucks, construction equipment, generators and boats all over the world. the emmissions are comparable to, ok, yeah, slightly hight than, standard diesels.

In off road toys like motorcycles and snowmobiles, it tkaes a lot more displacement to get the samepower, and without as many parts, are more reliable. Your emissions point holds true, though.


37 posted on 06/06/2006 6:42:40 PM PDT by Toby06 (True conservatives vote based on their values, not for parties.)
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To: Seruzawa

Why wont Ford release their diesel in this country?


38 posted on 06/06/2006 6:44:18 PM PDT by sgtbono2002
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To: xcamel
No hybrid is worth it.

I disagree. It has been worth it to see what percentage of liberals put their money where their mouth is. When they buy a car, they can spend more to have the enviro-friendly models that they want to impose on the rest of us, and clearly, the majority of liberals reject them.

Also, according to basic economics, an item is "worth" what somene is willing to pay. Clearly, some people do believe that it is worth it to spend a few extra bucks to help the environment - assuming that hybrids actually do so.

39 posted on 06/06/2006 6:45:14 PM PDT by Teacher317
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To: G. Stolyarov II
I don't know if it is still true, but a year ago the hybrids were actually appreciating if value. A supply and demand thing, but a car that holds its value is definitely worth it.
40 posted on 06/06/2006 6:47:49 PM PDT by TBall
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To: MaDuce
A diesel-electric hybrid (like they use in the Alberta tar sands):



Payload class 360 t
Engine output 2,013 - 2,722 kW
Maximum Operating Weight 592 t
Max. travel speed 64 km/h
BTW those are metric tonnes -- payload is about 400 U.S. tons.
41 posted on 06/06/2006 6:49:02 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: G. Stolyarov II

Whether a hybrid is worth it or not is a matter of personal preferences. The analysis appears incomplete to me too.

For example, according to this website:

http://www.hybridcars.com/tax-deductions-credits.html

A Camry gets $2,600 tax credit. So for a tax PAYER, more than half the difference is paid by the tax credit. And if you save $500 per year as all the assumptions in the analysis say, you are $100 to the good after five years.

I drive 30,000 a year. Sales people drive even more. I drive a BMW, but have wondered if I would like a hybrid. But a sales person who in the car much of the time might find a hybrid does not fit their needs.


42 posted on 06/06/2006 6:50:46 PM PDT by JLS
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To: SamAdams76
And what is all the fussing on the Free Republic about hybrids? What is wrong with hybrids?

I don't get it either. You'd think they're being mandated by congress or something.

43 posted on 06/06/2006 6:51:00 PM PDT by Doohickey (Democrats are nothing without a constituency of victims.)
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To: paul51

We drive about 20,000/year in our Prius, and gas costs around $3.25/gallon in California.

At 29 mpg that would be around $2241.

We get around 50 mpg for our Prius, so the cost per year on gas is $1300. We've owned ours for over five years, and it is still running great.

So I think we're doing better financially by owning the Prius.


44 posted on 06/06/2006 6:51:26 PM PDT by luckystarmom
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA
In the land of the total blackout, the man with a genset is king. :-)

Interesting. I didn't even know what a genset is until now.

Indeed!

45 posted on 06/06/2006 6:52:25 PM PDT by Fruitbat
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To: paul51
Tax credit for a Prius: $3150

Highlander and Camry: $2600

Other vehicles: $650 to $2600.

46 posted on 06/06/2006 6:52:53 PM PDT by alancarp (NASCAR: Always turning left, but can never keep up with the Liber-commis.)
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To: JLS

You beat me to it while I was typing! Good one.


47 posted on 06/06/2006 6:55:04 PM PDT by alancarp (NASCAR: Always turning left, but can never keep up with the Liber-commis.)
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To: TWohlford

A friend that runs a Chrysler dealership tells me that Dodge has serious plans for just that. I think it is called a Contractor Special. Pull up on the build location and have your power with you.


48 posted on 06/06/2006 6:55:04 PM PDT by CrazyIvan (If you read only one book this year, read "Stolen Valor".)
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To: philetus

'64 GTOs came with a 389, not a 396.


49 posted on 06/06/2006 6:55:14 PM PDT by Doohickey (Democrats are nothing without a constituency of victims.)
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To: G. Stolyarov II

It is a little known fact that the Japanese have a progressive tax on older cars... as your car gets older you have to pay a increasing tax or license fee... a new car or 2 year old no problem ... a 5 year old car (it used to esculate to about $4K)... a very strong incentive to buy a new car...

All the best


50 posted on 06/06/2006 6:55:21 PM PDT by bosshog
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