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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist
Read it and weep. All your talk about "The GOP must move to the middle" is a bunch of hokey.

You must have flunked math. Only about thirty five percent of likely voters are conservatives.

Like Barry Goldwater you seem to think that 35 percent of the voters can cast 51 percent of the votes. I think it was the day after the election in 1964 when Barry finally figured out 35 percent of the voters can't cast 51 percent of the vote.

Here in Ohio RINO Voinovich won in 2004 with 63 percent of the vote. According to the latest polls RINO DeWine will win with about 55 percent of the Vote. Conservative Blackwell will lose with 42 percent of the vote.

Read all the Tocqueville you want. But the only reading that counts are election returns. And it is next to impossible to re-elect a conservative running state wide in a left leaning state. Ask Rick Santorum how that works.. Specter can tell you as well.

14 posted on 06/17/2006 9:04:24 PM PDT by Common Tator
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To: Common Tator; Extremely Extreme Extremist; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; Kuksool; JohnnyZ; ...
Common Tator, I've read some of your posts with interest and find your conclusions to be rather half-baked or in error, but I will try to address the ones here that you came up short on...

"You must have flunked math. Only about thirty five percent of likely voters are conservatives."

What percentage of the voters are "Conservatives" can vary from election to election, and they don't necessarily translate into voting FOR the "Conservative" candidate. Voters are a bit more complicated than that. You can argue, at least from a Presidential election standpoint nowadays, that roughly 40% of the voters will support one party or the other, and the battle is to get the 20% unaligned.

"Like Barry Goldwater you seem to think that 35 percent of the voters can cast 51 percent of the votes. I think it was the day after the election in 1964 when Barry finally figured out 35 percent of the voters can't cast 51 percent of the vote."

Now, see, CT, this is where you start drawing erroneous conclusions. We need to start off by stating simply and clearly that Goldwater was under no false impression that he would win the general election. He knew the moment JFK was assassinated that no Republican was going to win the general election of 1964 (and all the hysterical claims by the Republican establishment that it was possible IF ONLY we had nominated a Rockefeller or a Bill Scranton, was patently ludicrous (Scranton himself maintained that incredible stance to me personally in correspondence as recently as 1997. As they say, denial ain't just a river in Egypt !).

To Goldwater's credit, he ran probably the most intellectually honest campaign for President in the 20th Century. Why he didn't succeed had nothing to do with a repudiation of his Libertarian Conservatism but a far more complex conclusion than one of "only 35% of the voters support(ing) him" (it was 38.5%, by the way, a full percentage point higher percentage than President Bush, Sr. received in 1992 -- and McGovern received exactly .07% HIGHER than Bush, Sr, too). One could argue that LBJ campaigned as the government "Conservative" against a "radical" Goldwater who sought to drastically reform 32+ years of governance. The country was in no mood for such change in direction in the wake of an assassination, though had they been fully versed as to what LBJ was planning for in his final 4 years, you might've seen a far closer race.

I would also go so far as to say the nation was not entirely clear on precisely what Goldwater's positions were beyond the sound-bites of the time and cute little put-down attacks "In your guts, you know he's nuts" that were clever but shameful substitutes for substantial political debate. In fact, LBJ was terrified of facing Goldwater in a debate and refused to face him (because the likelihood was that Barry would've demolished him).

It remains remarkable that Goldwater managed to get as HIGH a percent of the vote as he did with all of the obstacles against him (a hostile liberal & country-clubber GOP eastern establishment putting up with a standard-bearer laying out a platform that wasn't a carbon-copy of the Democrats and of all abominations, had Jewish ancestry !; an even more hostile left-wing media establishment ready to report that Goldwater was going to start World War III on his inauguration day). I tend to note a rather amusing side-effect that Goldwater was so villified in the media and by the political establishment that it drove UP his numbers in the South (had many there known that they were voting for a pro-civil rights figure with Jewish ancestry, he would've probably not performed at such a level).

"Here in Ohio RINO Voinovich won in 2004 with 63 percent of the vote. According to the latest polls RINO DeWine will win with about 55 percent of the Vote. Conservative Blackwell will lose with 42 percent of the vote."

In the case of Voinovich, that also has little to do with anything more than the power of incumbency against an underfunded challenger. DeWine, however, has jeopardized his own standing as of late with his RINO tendencies and some of those polls have shown him either narrowly leading or trailing the ultraliberal Sherrod Brown (moving left HAS harmed him, and he may end up having Conservatives not voting for him). Now, as for Blackwell, that also is no referendum on Conservatism, but one more on the state of the massively unpopular incumbent Governor and general dissatisfaction with the OH GOP establishment by the voters (and the fact that after awhile, voters like to swap party control, and no Dem has won the Governorship in 20 years). Fortunately for Blackwell, he still has time to turn it around.

"Read all the Tocqueville you want. But the only reading that counts are election returns. And it is next to impossible to re-elect a conservative running state wide in a left leaning state. Ask Rick Santorum how that works.. Specter can tell you as well."

Also an incorrect conclusion. By that definition, Reagan and George Deukmejian should never have won (or won 2nd terms) as Governor of "left-leaning" California. Even John Rowland of CT was still ostensibly Conservative when he won his first two elections (as for his third... well...). Gov. Don Carcieri of RI faces that test this year, and indications show he'll pull it out (narrowly, but remarkable achievement for that state). Even Al D'Amato eked 3 victories out of liberal New York state. As for Rick Santorum, he did something hard to do in the first place, and that was to knock off a sitting incumbent, and he also won reelection by a wider margin (PA is not as left-leaning as you may think, many of the Democrats there are social Conservatives). Santorum's mistake was that in aiding Specter, he alienated his very base that helped him secure his first two victories, and which has been slow to return (but not out of the question). As I said, many of your conclusions are dubious at best and wrong at worst.

15 posted on 06/18/2006 1:02:19 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: Common Tator
You must have flunked math. Only about thirty five percent of likely voters are conservatives.

Ah yes, Million Man March math, where figures and statistics can be easily pulled from someone's anal cavity.

Like Barry Goldwater you seem to think that 35 percent of the voters can cast 51 percent of the votes. I think it was the day after the election in 1964 when Barry finally figured out 35 percent of the voters can't cast 51 percent of the vote.

America wasn't ready to elect a conservative President yet. Besides, how did that "moving to the middle" thingy work out for Republicans between Presidents Hoover and Nixon? They faced a losing streak. Only Eisenhower bucked the trend, and he won only because of his name.

Here in Ohio RINO Voinovich won in 2004 with 63 percent of the vote. According to the latest polls RINO DeWine will win with about 55 percent of the Vote. Conservative Blackwell will lose with 42 percent of the vote.

I think as the race goes on Blackwell will get more than that and may even pull it out as Ohioan voters are disgusted by the state GOP. The OH GOP is screwed up anyway, you can't tell the difference between Republicans and Democrats.

Read all the Tocqueville you want. But the only reading that counts are election returns. And it is next to impossible to re-elect a conservative running state wide in a left leaning state. Ask Rick Santorum how that works.. Specter can tell you as well.

Rick Santorum is a principled conservative. He didn't need to "move to the middle." Specter would have been toast had the administration not stuck their noses in the race.

The bottom line is that your a typical GOP party flunky who advocates supporting RINOs over real conservatives.

16 posted on 06/18/2006 1:24:18 AM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist
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