Posted on 06/20/2006 3:45:35 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is weighing responses to a possible North Korean missile test that include attempting to shoot it down in flight over the Pacific, defense officials told The Associated Press on Tuesday.
Because North Korea has made it a practice not to announce its missile tests in advance, U.S. officials say they cannot be sure of the government's intentions. Under that circumstance, the Pentagon is considering the possibility that it might need to attempt an interception, two defense officials said.
The officials agreed to discuss the matter only on condition of anonymity because of its political sensitivity.
Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said he could not say whether the multibillion-dollar U.S. anti-missile defense system might be used in the event of a North Korean test. That system, which includes a handful of missiles that could be fired from Alaska and California, has had a spotty record in tests.
Although shooting down a North Korean missile is a possibility, the Pentagon also must consider factors that would argue against such a response, including the risk of shooting and missing and of escalating tensions further with Pyongyang.
Signs of North Korean preparations to launch a long-range, ballistic missile, possibly with sufficient range to reach U.S. territory, have grown in recent weeks, although it is unclear whether the missile has been fully fueled. U.S. officials said Monday the missile was apparently fully assembled and fueled, but others have since expressed some uncertainty.
Also unknown is whether the missile would be launched for a flight-test or to place a satellite in orbit.
Bush administration officials have publicly and privately urged the North Koreans not to conduct the missile test, which would end a moratorium in place since 1999. That ban was adopted after Japan and other nations expressed outrage over an August 1998 launch in which a North Korean missile overflew northern Japan.
At the time of the 1998 launch, the United States had no means of shooting down a long-range missile in flight. Since then, with the investment of tens of billions of dollars, the Pentagon has developed a rudimentary system that it says is capable of defending against a limited number of missiles in an emergency.
Don't shoot it down and allow others to observe our system. Blow it up on the pad with a cruise missile.
Shoot it down and say nothing.
Don't claim it either way, whether you hit it or miss it.
I was thinking the same thing. Blow it up on the launch pad and problem solved.
If we launch an interceptor from Fort Greeley, everybody will know ... and there will be no denying it.
"Since then, with the investment of tens of billions of dollars, the Pentagon has developed a rudimentary system that it says is capable of defending against a limited number of missiles in an emergency."
A threat to retaliate against Pyongyang would have exactly the same effect. Pentagon needs to weigh whether when the ABM fails will that lead to the programs cancelation, or will bring more money into this boondoggle.
Nah ... no bias there. How did that go?
"Nattering Nabobs of Negativism" ...
I support a US missle defense test!
Take it down.
Maybe instead of shooting it down we could redirect its trajectory. Play with it a little while. Catch it. Take it apart. Ship it back in pieces.
Make it so
That'd be quite a nailbiter for those in the U.S. program.
N.Koreans test their missile and USA test missile defence. Look at that as some sort of cooperation.
Being in california, you're in the impact area. :^o
No, we can fire more than one interceptor. AND we can fire from the SURFLTPAC forces.
My prediction: No launch. They are faking the fuel-up, and there will be no launch. I haven't read this anywhere, it's just my guess.
Exactly. We "just happened" to run a test concurrent with theirs. I like it.
Might be considered too close to an act of war. But I agree about not having people observe our systems, so maybe we should launch something from a plane to take it out. Just keep a plane in ready in the air of South Korea ready to go until they intercept the launch.
Use a different city. Seattle proper is openly pro-palestinian, and very anti-US. Military recruiters on junior college and high school campii are organized against in the open.
Seattle as a smoking hole would mean that Washington State would have a real shot at becoming a red state.
If that's NK's target, give me 30 minutes notice and then fire for effect.
From there to here - how many different systems do you think we have primed for launch?
And how many "black ops" systems might get a test?
Pearl Harbor?
"Don't shoot it down and allow others to observe our system. Blow it up on the pad with a cruise missile."
I was wondering if Beijing rang up Ronery guy and said "hey, we want to find out how good the Capitalist Running Dogs ABM system is. How about firing off a LongDong2 and see what happens?".
Close? It definitely would be an act of war. Very bad idea.
I think they ought to at least attempt to intercept it if it is launched. It's the best way to send the strongest possible signal to the do-eater that we aren't going to alow him to do this any more.
If we do shoot it down, there is little NK can do other than bitch.
just prior to launch,
with a Trident.
It's the perfect opportunity to test our new anti-ballistic missile system in a real world scenario.
And if it works, then we would have caused NK to lose a lot of 'face'.
Not a bad deal, in my view.
I wonder if the intercept would be detectable if the Navy attempts a mid-course intercept with a Standard-3. I don't know if any WestPac Aegis ships have the upgrades or tubes loaded for this.
It would be nice to hit it in early boost-phase with the Airborne Laser, but I don't know what the exact status of that system. That would probably look like a launch failure and the NK's would be loath to say otherwise and admit defeat.
I'm so unaware of these systems, is the transport made to be refueled? Seems it would have to be but don't know. Same with the laser. Can it be on and idling for a long time?
In the case of Seattle, I'm willing to go as high as five bucks.
>.What would it be worth to keep say Seattle from becoming a smoking hole?<<
Seeing as that is where I am, I'd be for it!
given the less than spectacular results in extremely controlled tests - nothing would be a more spectacular coup for the North Koreans than us trying and failing to shoot it down.
You might be right, but you also need to realize that the President can't conclude that because the downside is huge if you're guess - no matter how educated - is wrong. Guess wrong & lose Seattle. Whoops.
And if it doesn't work?
You can bet your ass the North Koreans will. "Impossible! Yankees not capable of shooting down Superior Korean Technology. Dear Leader say so!"
Couple more years to demonstrate a missile shootdown, and then another couple more years to get enough planes for a CAP. They still have to install the main laser in 2007, there was an article about this just posted in the last day or so. The beauty of this system is that if the laser doesn't work or misses, no one but us will know. If the laser kills it, no one but us will know. All the enemy would know is that their missile suffered a catastrophic failure shortly after takeoff.
Why is this even a discussion ?
If any missile reaches any point where it becomes a threat to any of our land or our forces, we take it out.
Considering all the train "accidents" the North has been having lately, you have to wonder what the likelihood is of a successful launch. If I had to guess I'd say that the North is having a little insurrection problem up there. There have been reports of attempted hits on the Dear Leader. If they can get to him (and they've been close), how difficult would it be to create the conditions necessary to cause a launch-pad failure?
I'm not clear on the operational status of the SM-3, either. It works, but I don't know how many ships it's deployed on. Even that, though, would be hard to deny. The Russians and probably the Chinese would know for sure that we did it.
I'm talking about sane folks knowing for sure that we took a shot at it.
I agree, i think Kim doesn't have the bomb so the rocket is useless, he's just trying to get attention since he is so ronery. So far it is working, he's got attention, China won't step in and cool his jets, but someone has to.
We should shoot it down to shut the lefties up, because we're ready to put parts of a larger system into manufacturing production now. It's time to do it.
But the announcement will probably cause the scared North Korean leaders to shut their test down and hide. They're chickens.
Operational test, real-world conditions, of the ABM. Got to happen sooner or later.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.