Posted on 06/27/2006 9:34:22 AM PDT by cogitator
There is an assumption here that Global Warming is one thing, and "natural cycles" are another thing. I need to read no further.
There. I fixed it.
The .edu on the end of the URL says it all.
Nothing to see here, move along.
And Dr. William Gray, who is the preeminent hurricane expert in this country, has said that so called global warming has nothing to do with Atlantic hurricanes.
"Global warming" is generally used to indicate the warming of the globe that has occurred since the mid-1800s. There is considerable scientific evidence that this warming, particularly the warming which occurred in the late 1980s into the 1990s and to present, has been augmented by human activities, particularly those that add CO2 to the atmosphere. CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased about 100 ppm since the mid-1800s, and this is about 100 ppm higher than the natural maximum over the past 640,000 years, as determined from measurements of CO2 in ice core bubbles.
Feel free to continue thinking that global warming is entirely natural. The scientific data does not support that line of thinking.
If you're happy with it, then I won't attempt to disturb your mindset.
It was the last time it happened.
Dr. Gray is not an oceanographer, and some of his ideas about oceanography are pretty clearly wrong.
Gray and Muddy Thinking about Global Warming
Now, this article doesn't directly address what Dr. Gray knows about hurricanes. But the new study just came out, and requires evaluation. Dr. Gray's evaluation will be one of many.
Please explain for the class how the Vikings made the world warm, how the Pilgrim caused things to get cold, and how Abe Lincoln managed to heat things up again.
It's a natural cycle.
And I'll bet the CO2 in ice core bubbles doesn't degrade one little bit being in contact with all that frozen and often liquid H2O for all that millenia, no sirree. Can you insure that those ice cores came from glaciers in which no liquid water occured in the time the CO2 was trapped?
... which causes cooling. Every model I have looked at shows that concentrated convection causes cooling. The subsidence around hurricanes cools and is much larger than the hurricane itself. Another factor is that tropical convection (not just hurricanes) peaks at night and therefore so do the cold cloud tops which warm the planet. There are probably other factors, but basically this increase in storminess is a sure sign of negative feedback from warming oceans.
Not one hurricane hit Florida from 1952 to 1962, a period of high water temperature the study references.
Higher water temps alone are not reliable predictors of frequency or severity.
Subtracting higher water temperatures elsewhere from the measured data guarantees the remaining increase will not be attributable to the rest of the factors the study includes.
What sort of science is this?
All of the effects that you mention have been evaluated. The current warming trend is being augmented by the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Natural variability cannot account for all of the observed warming.
I can back up all of these statements with references to scientific literature, if you would be willing to consider what they say. From long experience, I know that this effort is usually fruitless for someone who already has their mind made up. Tell me if you're actually interested -- I won't waste my time or yours if you aren't.
Why should it degrade? The ice cores are from Greenland or Antarctic ice caps. If you want to know more, try searching on the subject. I have extreme confidence that the CO2 concentrations measured in ice core bubbles are accurate, because they've been independently determined from more than one ice core.
Atmospheric or oceanic surface cooling?
We can just agree to disagree, since I consider that scientific literature to be agenda-driven crap. I grant that temperatures are rising. I grant that CO2 levels are rising. I laugh at the idea that humans are changing the global climate.
Does that indicate that the 1950s weren't an active hurricane period? It can be an active period and yet still spare Florida.
Higher water temps alone are not reliable predictors of frequency or severity.
What sort of science is this?
Published. It's in Geophysical Research Letters.
I agree.
Not completely sure but probably oceanic surface from the lack of clouds. The other effect is the removal of water vapor from the upper troposphere reducing the atmospheric warming.
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