Putin's Strategy of Persuasion

Stratfor ^ | June 27, 2006

[Tailgunner Joe]

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking ...on June 27, mentioned the need to start negotiations for replacing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-1), set to expire in 2009. ...

Russia feels that it would benefit from the mutual inspections which START-1 requires -- a reversal from Moscow's previous position. Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles are coming to the end of their shelf-lives, and the new SS-27 model is not yet online. The access to U.S. weapons and surveillance programs that comes with the inspections would benefit Russia's already robust research and development, as well as provide verification of the United States' capabilities. At the same time, the United States does not wish to limit itself, as Washington realizes that Russia cannot sustain the same rate of growth, and other potential competitors such as China are not bound by limitations like START-1. It is Washington's unwillingness to restrict armaments that Putin is playing up as irresponsible in order to put Russia in a better light.

Although the rhetoric is directed at the United States, Putin is really speaking to Europe. The continent was caught between the two sides of the Cold War, and this latest message is directed at Berlin and Paris. Europe does not wish to be caught between Russia and the United States if the two should engage in another arms race and would like to see a commitment from Washington to limit its capabilities. Russia would like to use this concern to drive a wedge between Europe and the United States, by influencing the Europeans to tell Washington that they do not agree with its lack of a commitment to disarmament. Russia already holds influence with Germany and France, including but not limited to energy supplies, and the Europeans themselves do not always want to support U.S. policies.

[GSlob]

FTB. "T" stands for "the".