'06 Senate Picture Changes a Bit

Real Clear Politics ^ | July 1, 2006 | Charlie Cook

[YaYa123]

The fight for control of the House is getting more ink than the battle for control of the Senate, but several recent shifts in individual Senate races merit attention. All year, talk about the Democrats' chances of taking the Senate has focused on the five most endangered Republican incumbents.

They are, roughly in order of vulnerability, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns of Montana, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Mike DeWine of Ohio, and Jim Talent of Missouri. The discussions then turn to the second tier of vulnerable Republicans, speculating whether Democrats can perhaps pick up a sixth seat (the most likely prospect is the open seat in Tennessee that Majority Leader Bill Frist is vacating) and whether they will be able to hold on to all of their own Senate seats. The open seat in Minnesota and Maria Cantwell's seat in Washington state are the Democrats' biggest vulnerabilities

[gridlock]

Elections are not held in the Summer. Elections are held in the Fall. A heck of a lot of things are going to happen between now and Election Day. The 'Pubbies seem particulary adept at peaking at the right time.

I stand by my tagline.

[Dane]

Charlie Cook, along with Stuart Rothenberg don't have a clue. They are both Democrat shrills, but try to cover it up as best they can. They were wrong in 2000, 2002 and 2004, and they are both wrong about 2006. They will both look like fools after election day in November. These are the guys that predicted Tom Delay would face a "stiff" primary challenge (Delay slaughtered his primary opponents), and that the 50th congressional district in San Diego would go Democrat (It did not). These two guys like Chris Mattthews and Howard Fineman are just about as dumb as one can get. They both live only in the Democrat and MSM bubble. Ask either of them to tell you some demographics on NASCAR, etc. Neither has a clue. End of story!!!

I agree but then you will have so called "true conservative" doom and gloomers who will on cue say, "The republican leadership does not listen to the base" blah, blah, blah.

I ask one question of these people, do you think nancy pelosi and harry reid are going to listen to you.

[WhiteGuy]

If Dems take either the Senate or the House, George Bush is going to have a living hell for the next two years.

How so?

There is zero chance that the democrats will have a "veto-proof" majority.

The democrats' spending habits are actually quite similar to those of the republicans during this administration.

Although doubtful, our president does still have the authority to veto legislation.

Judges? president bush will possibly be forced to pick slightly different candidates, but hardly anything to get upset about.

Prospect of democrats attempting censure or impeachment? remote at best, and even if they do, maybe they'll spend so much time on that distraction that they won't spend OUR money quite as fast.

[LS]

Cook is not highly respected by me. He was, as I recall, way off in 2004, predicting a Kerry victory and missing most of the Senate seats. I don't think he was close to my record: I had Bush at 300 EV (missing only PA) and had EVERY GOP Senate seat called correctly except CO.

I don't think Talent is in trouble; DeWine is already leading; MN is likely ours; Cantwell fading; the MI Governor is trailing the Republican, meaning Stabenow may be in some trouble; and I don't really see Frist's seat as vulnerable. We also may pick up NJ, and Santorum isn't out yet.

It's a long, long way to the election, and so much can happen that can swing ALL of these to the GOP, it's not worth getting worked up over at this point.

[LS]

Ever hear of judges? Imagine Schumer as the head of the Judiciary Committee. Specter, despite what you may think of him, has been STELLAR in getting Bush's judges out and confirmed.

And Armed Services? Do you possibly think a Dem Senate wouldn't be holding major show trials for the military over Gitmo?

Your analysis is really, really thin.

[WhiteGuy]

Ever hear of judges?

Yes I addressed the issue of judges. Perhaps I should revisit. How many federal judgeships are expected to be vacated in the next 2 years? Of those, how many can logically be expected to face some opposition from the senate judiciary committee? How have presidents in years past managed to keep judges on the bench when an opposition party has in the majority in the senate? I think this is an issue of leadership by the president more than anything else. Either he is a strong enough leader to nominate respectable judges or he is not. (of course we won't mention harriet meiers)

Armed services? The president is the commander in chief. It is his responsibility to lead the military. How have past presidents handled this leadership responsibility without the benefit of a friendly senate?

Major show trials? - Please explain, what is meant by this comment?

[9999lakes]

beyond the sea is "looking for divine intervention" to save the GOP in November.

Maybe. God will certainly do as He sees fit, and doesn't need my advice or opinions to make His choices. AND I DO think we have God to thank for more than a few past election victories.

But maybe God is getting as impatient as I am.
Who knows? Maybe even God might be getting tired of electing Republicans who promise but don't deliver....

...And then bring the promises out again at election time.

[backinthefold]

speculating whether Democrats can perhaps pick up a sixth seat (the most likely prospect is the open seat in Tennessee that Majority Leader Bill Frist is vacating)

 

Don't bet on Ford winning, he may try to distance himself from his uncle- charged in the Tennessee waltz sting- but once Coker wins the nomination, and he will win it, Ford wont stand a chance.

 

TV ads at this point, Fords are full of only half truths (what a surprise) and Coker is about himself, his experience, his faith, including one with his momma :) Both Hillary and Bryant have yet to have TV ads here in the Chattanooga area.

[srmorton]

I live next door to Tennessee in NC. If Al Gore could not win TN in 2000, my gut feeling is that there is no way that a Dem from a corrupt political family can take this seat away from the Pubbies.

[beyond the sea]

Cook is not highly respected by me. He was, as I recall, way off in 2004, predicting a Kerry victory and missing most of the Senate seats. I don't think he was close to my record

(Imo) Lame-o Cook cooks his own studies, predictions, polls, and judgments.

He's merely a little bloated fool.

[beyond the sea]

Are you beginning to think that all these election charades are just theatre for the citizens?

You most likely are right.

Personally, I'd like to see Maria Sharapova getting ready to return serve.

[YaYa123]

You wrote, "Prospect of democrats attempting censure or impeachment? remote at best,"

I'm not nearly so optimist on this point. If Democrats take over the House, I believe they will start impeachment proceedings immediately.

[Eagles Talon IV]

Everyone seems to be missing what I believe is the over riding issue and that is national security. With every call for us to cut and run, with every comment that diminishes the work being done by the FBI as they thwart potential attacks here and with every report of cells in other countries being broken up (Canada, Australia, England), the left re enforces the idea they are weak on defense and do not take the WOT seriously.

The safety and security of the country and peoples perception of it is paramount in their decision of whom to vote for. It's been said many times but it is true nonetheless, 9-11 cvhanged everything and people have not forgotten it despite the medias attempt to wish it away.

[WhiteGuy]

I'm not nearly so optimist on this point. If Democrats take over the House, I believe they will start impeachment proceedings immediately.


Let's just look at the worst-case scenario.

democrats end up with more seats in the house and therefore all the chairmanships.

If they wish to start impeachment proceedings immediately, let them.

That's right! I don't believe that there have been any crimes or misdemeanors committed, do you?

They can screw around for the next two years for all I care. Maybe it will slow their spending down a bit huh?

So even if they begin proceedings on day one, it is a non-issue from my perspective.

[weezel]

Listen.....The supremes gave Republicans a huge gift with their ruling against tribunals, if it is done correctly. IF Bush goes to congress for that power, before the election, it's a lose lose propostion for demokkkrats. They can either vote to give it to him, and piss off their base, or they can argue against it, and try to explain to the electorate how these head chopping terrorists are not being treated kindly enough.

[evad]

>>(The 'Pubbies will pick up two (2) seats in the Senate and four (4) seats in the House in 2006)<<

Well, I hope yer right and I hope one of 'em is Steele (Marland).

[evad]

beyond the sea is "looking for divine intervention" to save the GOP in November.

He may already have ...twice.

I wouldn't count on the ole "Third Time's a Charm" thing. We better handle it ourselves.

Hold yer nose and pull the R lever, even if it stands for RINO.

[evad]

Ditto!

Two years of inaction by the House can't be all that bad.

[Non-Sequitur]

Why is Talent in trouble?

I don't think he is, not really. Certainly not like Santorum or Burns is. The polls have gone back and forth but the key fact it that Talent has twice the money on hand that McCaskill has, and barring a major gaff on his part I think he'll be reelected with a 4 or 5 point margin.

[LS]

You are more naive than I first thought. Merely the appellate judges that will be confirmed under a GOP senate alone constitutes a titanic difference from the Dems.

Show trials? Be serious. With the Dems running the Senate AS committee, they would have the JCS up every week defending a new "atrocity." Oh, and forget ANY prosecution of the War on Terror. A Dem senate would completely hamstring Bush. Don't kid yourself about "commander in chief." A President is only as powerful in wartime as his support. Ask LBJ.