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Lopez Obrador leading Calderon in Mexican Vote Recount [Update: Calderon now leading]
www.easybourse.com ^ | 05 July 2006 | Tom Barkley

Posted on 07/05/2006 2:12:31 PM PDT by chilepepper

MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Mexico's leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador holds a small lead in the final vote count being conducted by the Federal Electoral Institute, or IFE, based on results from 35.2% of polling stations, The Associated Press reported Wednesday afternoon.

Lopez Obrador, of the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, is ahead with 37.1%, while conservative Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party, or PAN, has 34.3% of the vote, according to IFE.

A quick tally the night of Sunday's vote proved too close for IFE to call a winner, so election officials Wednesday started a full review of tallies compiled by polling stations. The process could take several days to complete.

In a preliminary vote count, Calderon led by a little over 400,000 votes, about 1 percentage point, with 98.5% of the country's more than 130,000 balloting places reporting.

Lopez Obrador's campaign has rejected the preliminary results and called on IFE to open ballot boxes and conduct a vote-by-vote recount, citing irregularities. Leonel Cota, president of the PRD, upped the stakes Wednesday by saying the campaign won't concede the election without a full recount.

While parties can appeal to district election officials to open ballot boxes for a recount, it's unclear if a nationwide recount is allowed under Mexican law.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Mexico; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: calderon; chavez; election; elections; happyjimmuhcarter; horroratdu; mexico2006; obrador; presidentialelection; shtf
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I think the Gore went down there recently with his buddy William Daley to show them the finer points of election stealing...

bloomberg.com reported that 2.58 million votes were thrown out because of illegible markings - in mexican is must mean "chados colgantes" meethinks...

time to ask the Israelis about wall technology!

1 posted on 07/05/2006 2:12:32 PM PDT by chilepepper
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To: chilepepper

Los Chads Colgantes! Necesitamos Jimmy Carter, ahora!


2 posted on 07/05/2006 2:13:50 PM PDT by Clemenza (The CFR ate my bilderburgers! Time to call for a trilateral commission to investigate!)
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To: chilepepper

Jimmy Carter says Obrador won in a fair election. Only 65% of the votes were illegal.


3 posted on 07/05/2006 2:14:12 PM PDT by TommyDale (Stop the Nifongery!)
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To: chilepepper

Lefties are gonna steal this one, and over half of Mexico is gonna be pissed off...I mean violent, blood in the streets pissed off. This guy is gonna be another Chavez-Castro crony. Better get that fence-wall up soon....if you think border crossings are bad now, it's gonna get a lot worse under this fool.


4 posted on 07/05/2006 2:15:52 PM PDT by DesScorp
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To: chilepepper

that's all Obrador needs.. from here on no matter what the end count, if he loses he can claim the election was stolen from him.


5 posted on 07/05/2006 2:16:18 PM PDT by Cinnamon
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To: chilepepper

Which precincts have been reported first?


6 posted on 07/05/2006 2:22:58 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: sionnsar; llevrok

Ron Sims, please pick up the white courtesy phone, Ron Sims...


7 posted on 07/05/2006 2:24:06 PM PDT by IslandJeff
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To: chilepepper

This is not good. It is in our national interest for Mexico to become free and prosperous. Electing this communist Obrador would be a giant leap in the wrong direction.


8 posted on 07/05/2006 2:25:19 PM PDT by ArrogantBustard (Western Civilisation is aborting, buggering, and contracepting itself out of existence.)
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To: DesScorp

I had not really anticipated it, but a close election with the leftist losing by a narrow margin is just about the worst possible scenario because it will yield the kind of instability and political ratcheting-up-the-rhetoric that we have been seeing in the USA for the last 6 years. The difference is that the USA is much more stable than Mexico.

It could get ugly soon.


9 posted on 07/05/2006 2:26:00 PM PDT by Paloma_55 (I may be a hateful bigot, but I still love you)
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To: chilepepper

This article could not be less clear.


10 posted on 07/05/2006 2:31:43 PM PDT by Williams
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To: chilepepper
I don't know which precincts are reporting, but the Mexican newspaper El Universal is reporting that ObraGore leads 37.01%-34.53% with 62.61% in.

This doesn't look good. Something's not right.
11 posted on 07/05/2006 2:32:11 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: DesScorp

The dems are hoping and praying (actually they don't really pray) for a socialist/comunist victory in Mexico. This commie is one of their own. Vote fraud is a way of life for the dems and that is probably what is going on in Mexico. JessM


12 posted on 07/05/2006 2:37:15 PM PDT by jesseam
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To: jesseam; Paleo Conservative
64.34% in:

ObraGore (PRD) 36.98%
Calderon (PAN) 34.56%
13 posted on 07/05/2006 2:40:05 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: IslandJeff
Isn't the King Co. elections director looking for work too?

Coincidence? I think not.

14 posted on 07/05/2006 2:40:59 PM PDT by llevrok ("Drink your beer, damnit! There are people in Africa sober.")
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To: llevrok

Logan got hired by Los Angeles. I'm not kidding.


15 posted on 07/05/2006 2:42:47 PM PDT by IslandJeff
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To: conservative in nyc

goddamn. the leftists are stealing the election?!??!


16 posted on 07/05/2006 2:46:33 PM PDT by WOSG (-)
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To: DesScorp

If Calderon holds a 1% lead with 98.5% of the vote counted, what is the possibility this would reverse to a 2.8% lead for Obragore, assuming the 35.2% of the polling places recounted so far weren't cherry-picked?


17 posted on 07/05/2006 2:48:42 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (crime would drop like a sprung trapdoor if we brought back good old-fashioned hangings)
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To: IslandJeff
Logan got hired by Los Angeles. I'm not kidding.

He will be right at home. So many illegal ballots / so little time....

18 posted on 07/05/2006 2:51:09 PM PDT by llevrok ("Drink your beer, damnit! There are people in Africa sober.")
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To: chilepepper

Another interesting election. Thanks for posting.


19 posted on 07/05/2006 2:51:29 PM PDT by PGalt
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To: llevrok

There will come the point, given demographics, that he could become a kingmaker.

Why can't these people find real jobs? Is working for a fat, bloated, corrupt government really satisfying?

Not to mention Mexico...


20 posted on 07/05/2006 2:53:21 PM PDT by IslandJeff
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To: chilepepper

We'll know Gore is advising them if they start disenfranchising military voters.


21 posted on 07/05/2006 2:53:25 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: Vigilanteman

Have Faith, weak knees worry wobbles!!! Follow the money at Intrade.com., Valderon is still a 80% favorite over labrador who is polling at a 20% chance of winning or stealing the election.


22 posted on 07/05/2006 2:53:32 PM PDT by Jack Ian
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To: conservative in nyc

Obragoes's lead is now down to 2.42% with 64.34% of the vote recounted. Are these periodic vote totals being released to let them know how many more they need to manufacture?

If so, one would think it would play out like the 2002 eletion in South Dakota, where just enough votes came rolling in from the final county to report to erase Thune's all-night lead against Johnson.

Of course, this is Mexico, so maybe PAN has their own vote manufacturers.


23 posted on 07/05/2006 2:53:53 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (crime would drop like a sprung trapdoor if we brought back good old-fashioned hangings)
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To: chilepepper

There already was a full count - Calderon won:

http://www.elecciones.imagen.com.mx/imagen.php

If any recount does anything majorly different, then something is rotten somewhere.


24 posted on 07/05/2006 2:57:23 PM PDT by WOSG (-)
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To: IslandJeff
Why can't these people find real jobs?

LIE-berals civil servants are never out of work as long as there are other liberal civil servants.

25 posted on 07/05/2006 2:58:12 PM PDT by llevrok ("Drink your beer, damnit! There are people in Africa sober.")
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To: Vigilanteman
With 65.68%:

ObraGore (PRD) 36.91% (-.07%)
Calderon (PAN) 34.60% (+.04%)

The PAN vote is increasing a bit with the recent data dump.
26 posted on 07/05/2006 3:16:15 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: Vigilanteman
All the votes are in, and there already has been a preliminary count in which ObraGore lost by about .6%. There are no votes to manufacture. In fact, I think they are just re-reviewing the 130,000+ precinct tally sheets, not actually recounting the physical votes.
27 posted on 07/05/2006 3:18:22 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: conservative in nyc

Good to have you back NYC. The money is still big on Calderon at InTrade.com, so I am not worried the little Marxist with no passport will not steal it.


28 posted on 07/05/2006 3:21:26 PM PDT by Jack Ian
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To: Vigilanteman

It is a little odd that they would be releasing the recount of the vote tallies as they come in from the various electoral districts. Obviously, there are regional differences, and Obrador did better in some areas than Calderon and vice versa. So these piecemeal releases tell us nothing.

Mexico has a very secure voting system and I think it would be hard for them to manufacture votes in the tried and true Dem way (i.e., the dead-but-voting, the persons who have mastered bilocation, etc.). However, I suppose it's possible that the Mexican left has worked out some other creative way of thwarting elections.


29 posted on 07/05/2006 3:25:49 PM PDT by livius
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To: conservative in nyc
With 69.01%

López Obrador 36.81%
Felipe Calderón 34.64%.

30 posted on 07/05/2006 3:30:18 PM PDT by CedarDave (When a soldier dies, a protester gloats, a family cries, an Iraqi votes)
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To: conservative in nyc

Not fast enough, I'm afraid.


31 posted on 07/05/2006 3:31:03 PM PDT by CedarDave (When a soldier dies, a protester gloats, a family cries, an Iraqi votes)
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To: livius
With 69.01%:

ObraGore (PRD) 36.81% (-.10%)
Calderon (PAN) 34.64% (+.04%)

The gap is closing - but is it closing fast enough? I have no idea which precincts were out in the count. I doubt they've been doing it alphabetically by state, since Calderon would be pulling about even by now if they were (and would have never fallen this far behind).
32 posted on 07/05/2006 3:31:33 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: DesScorp
Better get that fence-wall up soon....if you think border crossings are bad now, it's gonna get a lot worse under this fool.

Socialist countries are very good about preventing their slaves people from leaving.

33 posted on 07/05/2006 3:35:21 PM PDT by FreedomCalls (It's the "Statue of Liberty," not the "Statue of Security.")
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To: WOSG
goddamn. the leftists are stealing the election?!??!

Why would you assume that it's Obrador who is stealing the election and not Calderon? It seems very plausible that the corrupt ruling party (and by the way, that's not a specific attack on Calderon, just an observation that "corrupt" and "ruling party" are historically joined together in Mexico) might adjust the voting results to maintain its grip on power.

I certainly hope Obrador loses, since he's the greater of the two evils. But I don't expect anything particularly good to come out of a Calderon victory.

34 posted on 07/05/2006 3:36:58 PM PDT by dpwiener
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To: conservative in nyc
With 71.46%

ObraGore (PRD) 36.87 (+.07%%)
Calderon (PAN) 34.56% (-.08%)

The most recent precincts favored ObraGore.
35 posted on 07/05/2006 3:50:31 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: conservative in nyc

With the recount at 71.46%

Candidatos Presidenciales:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.87 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.56 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.02%
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %


36 posted on 07/05/2006 3:51:33 PM PDT by CedarDave (When a soldier dies, a protester gloats, a family cries, an Iraqi votes)
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To: conservative in nyc

What about those 700,000 "annulled" votes we heard about a couple of days ago. Are those being counted now?


37 posted on 07/05/2006 3:53:19 PM PDT by CedarDave (When a soldier dies, a protester gloats, a family cries, an Iraqi votes)
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To: CedarDave
What about those 700,000 "annulled" votes we heard about a couple of days ago. Are those being counted now?

I doubt it. This is supposed to be just a re-tallying of the tally sheets and recounting of the votes in areas where the tally sheets had errors.

Sometimes, people are disgusted by all of the candidates and don't want to vote. There were at least two other races going on - for Senate and Chamber of Deputies, and some local races as well.
38 posted on 07/05/2006 3:57:12 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: CedarDave
What about those 700,000 "annulled" votes we heard about a couple of days ago. Are those being counted now?

I doubt it. This is supposed to be just a re-tallying of the tally sheets and recounting of the votes in areas where the tally sheets had errors.

Sometimes, people are disgusted by all of the candidates and don't want to vote. There were at least two other races going on - for Senate and Chamber of Deputies, and some local races as well.
39 posted on 07/05/2006 3:57:13 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: dpwiener

" Why would you assume that it's Obrador who is stealing the election and not Calderon? "

1. Obrador made clear that he would take action if he lost, meaning street action, etc. He has arrogantly assumed he would win all along. Obra-gore indeed.
2. The full first count had Calderon winning by 1%. You *dont* change numbers that much.

The corrupt ruling party *was* the PRI.

"But I don't expect anything particularly good to come out of a Calderon victory."

The defeat of a leftist for one, and the salvation of mexico's economy for two.


40 posted on 07/05/2006 4:07:46 PM PDT by WOSG (-)
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To: conservative in nyc

Another update:

73.58% de casillas computadas.

Candidatos Presidenciales:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.85 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.57 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.02 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360325.html


41 posted on 07/05/2006 4:11:22 PM PDT by CedarDave (When a soldier dies, a protester gloats, a family cries, an Iraqi votes)
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To: conservative in nyc


Partial counts say nothing if they favor certain districts...
http://www.elecciones.imagen.com.mx/imagen.php

Total count from original tally
PAN / Calderon: 14,027,214 36.38%
PRI: 8,318,886 21.57%
PRD/ Obrador: 13,624,506 35.34%

This has a weird Florida 2K redux feel to it. If Calderon pulls it out, as he should, the leftists will have a hissy fit because these partial results showed their guy ahead.

OTOH, if there is a change in the winner that dramatic, it puts the whole election in doubt.


42 posted on 07/05/2006 4:13:10 PM PDT by WOSG (-)
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To: chilepepper

Just when I had breathed a sigh of relief...


43 posted on 07/05/2006 4:18:19 PM PDT by Unam Sanctam
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To: WOSG
Yes, partial counts say nothing if all the remaining votes are from pro-PAN Northern Mexico. And we have absolutely no idea where the counted votes are coming from. But the trends haven't been comforting, and the PRD conspiracy theorists will have a field day if the numbers reverse themselves when 99% of the votes are counted.
44 posted on 07/05/2006 4:18:35 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: conservative in nyc

74.68% de casillas computadas.

Candidatos Presidenciales:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.81 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.6 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.03 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %


45 posted on 07/05/2006 4:24:09 PM PDT by CedarDave (When a soldier dies, a protester gloats, a family cries, an Iraqi votes)
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To: Unam Sanctam
74.68% Reporting:

Obrador (PRD): 36.81%
Calderón (PAN): 34.6%

El Universal is reporting that all of Tabasco district IV is in (heavy PRD territory), and Obrador picked up 20,405 votes from the preliminary count.
46 posted on 07/05/2006 4:25:53 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: CedarDave
75.08% in now:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.78 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.62 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.05 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360329.html
47 posted on 07/05/2006 4:32:18 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: DesScorp
Lefties are gonna steal this one, and over half of Mexico is gonna be pissed off...I mean violent, blood in the streets pissed off.

Which half, the one in the US or the one wanting to be in the US? Remember, the revolution that the neo marxists are calling for won't just be in Mexico...

48 posted on 07/05/2006 4:32:24 PM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: redgolum
76.46% in:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.76%
Felipe Calderón: 34.62%
Roberto Madrazo: 22.07%
Patricia Mercado: 2.71%
Roberto Campa: 0.94%

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360328.html
49 posted on 07/05/2006 4:44:07 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: WOSG
" Why would you assume that it's Obrador who is stealing the election and not Calderon? " 1. Obrador made clear that he would take action if he lost, meaning street action, etc. He has arrogantly assumed he would win all along. Obra-gore indeed. 2. The full first count had Calderon winning by 1%. You *dont* change numbers that much.

1. Just because Obrador would be willing to fight it out in the streets if he lost, and just because he's arrogant, doesn't lead to the conclusion that Obrador rather than Calderon is stealing the election. It could easily be the case that Obrador really did get more votes. Even if Obrador wanted and intended to steal the election, it could still be the case that he didn't need to steal the election because he got more votes.

2. The fact that Calderon "won" the first count by 1% means nothing, if that victory margin was obtained by massive theft to begin with. That is not too big a difference so as to be unaccountable for by widespread cheating. Remember, the ruling party is in charge of the vote tabulation.

Please understand, I'm not trying to exonerate Obrador or implicate Calderon. I don't even know if there was any widespread voter fraud. I'm just challenging the assumption that stealing Mexican elections would only be a province of the most leftist candidate.

In other words, don't project U.S. political labels onto Mexican politicians and parties. Obrador is not Gore, and Calderon is not Bush. Either or neither or both of the two Mexican candidates could be guilty of attempting to steal the election. And if Obrador wins the recount (which I think is unlikely, even though he's ahead at this point) you shouldn't discount the possibility that it was a legitimate victory.

50 posted on 07/05/2006 4:52:59 PM PDT by dpwiener
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