Skip to comments.Lopez Obrador leading Calderon in Mexican Vote Recount [Update: Calderon now leading]
Posted on 07/05/2006 2:12:31 PM PDT by chilepepper
MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Mexico's leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador holds a small lead in the final vote count being conducted by the Federal Electoral Institute, or IFE, based on results from 35.2% of polling stations, The Associated Press reported Wednesday afternoon.
Lopez Obrador, of the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, is ahead with 37.1%, while conservative Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party, or PAN, has 34.3% of the vote, according to IFE.
A quick tally the night of Sunday's vote proved too close for IFE to call a winner, so election officials Wednesday started a full review of tallies compiled by polling stations. The process could take several days to complete.
In a preliminary vote count, Calderon led by a little over 400,000 votes, about 1 percentage point, with 98.5% of the country's more than 130,000 balloting places reporting.
Lopez Obrador's campaign has rejected the preliminary results and called on IFE to open ballot boxes and conduct a vote-by-vote recount, citing irregularities. Leonel Cota, president of the PRD, upped the stakes Wednesday by saying the campaign won't concede the election without a full recount.
While parties can appeal to district election officials to open ballot boxes for a recount, it's unclear if a nationwide recount is allowed under Mexican law.
bloomberg.com reported that 2.58 million votes were thrown out because of illegible markings - in mexican is must mean "chados colgantes" meethinks...
time to ask the Israelis about wall technology!
Los Chads Colgantes! Necesitamos Jimmy Carter, ahora!
Jimmy Carter says Obrador won in a fair election. Only 65% of the votes were illegal.
Lefties are gonna steal this one, and over half of Mexico is gonna be pissed off...I mean violent, blood in the streets pissed off. This guy is gonna be another Chavez-Castro crony. Better get that fence-wall up soon....if you think border crossings are bad now, it's gonna get a lot worse under this fool.
that's all Obrador needs.. from here on no matter what the end count, if he loses he can claim the election was stolen from him.
Which precincts have been reported first?
Ron Sims, please pick up the white courtesy phone, Ron Sims...
This is not good. It is in our national interest for Mexico to become free and prosperous. Electing this communist Obrador would be a giant leap in the wrong direction.
I had not really anticipated it, but a close election with the leftist losing by a narrow margin is just about the worst possible scenario because it will yield the kind of instability and political ratcheting-up-the-rhetoric that we have been seeing in the USA for the last 6 years. The difference is that the USA is much more stable than Mexico.
It could get ugly soon.
This article could not be less clear.
The dems are hoping and praying (actually they don't really pray) for a socialist/comunist victory in Mexico. This commie is one of their own. Vote fraud is a way of life for the dems and that is probably what is going on in Mexico. JessM
Coincidence? I think not.
Logan got hired by Los Angeles. I'm not kidding.
goddamn. the leftists are stealing the election?!??!
If Calderon holds a 1% lead with 98.5% of the vote counted, what is the possibility this would reverse to a 2.8% lead for Obragore, assuming the 35.2% of the polling places recounted so far weren't cherry-picked?
He will be right at home. So many illegal ballots / so little time....
Another interesting election. Thanks for posting.
There will come the point, given demographics, that he could become a kingmaker.
Why can't these people find real jobs? Is working for a fat, bloated, corrupt government really satisfying?
Not to mention Mexico...
We'll know Gore is advising them if they start disenfranchising military voters.
Have Faith, weak knees worry wobbles!!! Follow the money at Intrade.com., Valderon is still a 80% favorite over labrador who is polling at a 20% chance of winning or stealing the election.
Obragoes's lead is now down to 2.42% with 64.34% of the vote recounted. Are these periodic vote totals being released to let them know how many more they need to manufacture?
If so, one would think it would play out like the 2002 eletion in South Dakota, where just enough votes came rolling in from the final county to report to erase Thune's all-night lead against Johnson.
Of course, this is Mexico, so maybe PAN has their own vote manufacturers.
There already was a full count - Calderon won:
If any recount does anything majorly different, then something is rotten somewhere.
LIE-berals civil servants are never out of work as long as there are other liberal civil servants.
Good to have you back NYC. The money is still big on Calderon at InTrade.com, so I am not worried the little Marxist with no passport will not steal it.
It is a little odd that they would be releasing the recount of the vote tallies as they come in from the various electoral districts. Obviously, there are regional differences, and Obrador did better in some areas than Calderon and vice versa. So these piecemeal releases tell us nothing.
Mexico has a very secure voting system and I think it would be hard for them to manufacture votes in the tried and true Dem way (i.e., the dead-but-voting, the persons who have mastered bilocation, etc.). However, I suppose it's possible that the Mexican left has worked out some other creative way of thwarting elections.
López Obrador 36.81%
Felipe Calderón 34.64%.
Not fast enough, I'm afraid.
Socialist countries are very good about preventing their
slaves people from leaving.
Why would you assume that it's Obrador who is stealing the election and not Calderon? It seems very plausible that the corrupt ruling party (and by the way, that's not a specific attack on Calderon, just an observation that "corrupt" and "ruling party" are historically joined together in Mexico) might adjust the voting results to maintain its grip on power.
I certainly hope Obrador loses, since he's the greater of the two evils. But I don't expect anything particularly good to come out of a Calderon victory.
With the recount at 71.46%
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.87 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.56 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.02%
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
What about those 700,000 "annulled" votes we heard about a couple of days ago. Are those being counted now?
" Why would you assume that it's Obrador who is stealing the election and not Calderon? "
1. Obrador made clear that he would take action if he lost, meaning street action, etc. He has arrogantly assumed he would win all along. Obra-gore indeed.
2. The full first count had Calderon winning by 1%. You *dont* change numbers that much.
The corrupt ruling party *was* the PRI.
"But I don't expect anything particularly good to come out of a Calderon victory."
The defeat of a leftist for one, and the salvation of mexico's economy for two.
73.58% de casillas computadas.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.85 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.57 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.02 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
Partial counts say nothing if they favor certain districts...
Total count from original tally
PAN / Calderon: 14,027,214 36.38%
PRI: 8,318,886 21.57%
PRD/ Obrador: 13,624,506 35.34%
This has a weird Florida 2K redux feel to it. If Calderon pulls it out, as he should, the leftists will have a hissy fit because these partial results showed their guy ahead.
OTOH, if there is a change in the winner that dramatic, it puts the whole election in doubt.
Just when I had breathed a sigh of relief...
74.68% de casillas computadas.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.81 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.6 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.03 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
Which half, the one in the US or the one wanting to be in the US? Remember, the revolution that the neo marxists are calling for won't just be in Mexico...
1. Just because Obrador would be willing to fight it out in the streets if he lost, and just because he's arrogant, doesn't lead to the conclusion that Obrador rather than Calderon is stealing the election. It could easily be the case that Obrador really did get more votes. Even if Obrador wanted and intended to steal the election, it could still be the case that he didn't need to steal the election because he got more votes.
2. The fact that Calderon "won" the first count by 1% means nothing, if that victory margin was obtained by massive theft to begin with. That is not too big a difference so as to be unaccountable for by widespread cheating. Remember, the ruling party is in charge of the vote tabulation.
Please understand, I'm not trying to exonerate Obrador or implicate Calderon. I don't even know if there was any widespread voter fraud. I'm just challenging the assumption that stealing Mexican elections would only be a province of the most leftist candidate.
In other words, don't project U.S. political labels onto Mexican politicians and parties. Obrador is not Gore, and Calderon is not Bush. Either or neither or both of the two Mexican candidates could be guilty of attempting to steal the election. And if Obrador wins the recount (which I think is unlikely, even though he's ahead at this point) you shouldn't discount the possibility that it was a legitimate victory.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.