The Real Threat From North Korea

SpaceWar.com ^ | 07/07/06 | by Anthony H. Cordesman

[garbageseeker]

The same North Korean ICBM efforts that throw a rock at Alaska can throw a large nuclear warhead at every ally the United States has in Northeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are not only close allies, they are critical trading partners. The risk of a war in this part of the world would inevitably threaten Chinese involvement in some form, and possible bloc trade with much of China for an extended period even if China did not become involved. Our troops and our bases in most of Asia would be at hazard as well.

Americans need to stop thinking parochially and selfishly and start thinking strategically. North Korea does not have to be able to hit the United States with meaningful nuclear threats to do much to deter or damage the United States

[garbageseeker]

This is a rather interesting article. I would like your comments on it.There is a slight bias in the article and does not take into account of threat of a missile attack by North Koreans on the continential United States in the long range.

[Brilliant]

The real threat from NK is that they are going into the export business.

[Paloma_55]

I say the next time they start fueling one of these things, we should send a submarine based, GPS guided cruise missle to the launch pad.

[garbageseeker]

That have already have exporting business. They sell their missiles to Iran

[garbageseeker]

I agree

[massgopguy]

Why can't China do something about their crazy aunt in the attic? hint: they're bankrolling these launches.

[garbageseeker]

Bump

China is also providing them with fuel and food. Most likely goes directly to the party bosses and the military.

[Dark Skies]

I say the next time they start fueling one of these things, we should send a submarine based, GPS guided cruise missle to the launch pad.

Yep...and release a tape with an OBL lookalike taking full credit.

[b4its2late]

hint: they're bankrolling these launches.

To see if we react and how. It's like getting your little cousin to throw a rock at your neighbors house and letting him get in trouble for it. If no consequences, it's only a matter of time and you'll be able to do the same with impunity.

[monkeywrench]

"One other point. When it comes to political posturing, the Bush administration deserves a bit of credit on its own. Talking about activating an unproven ballistic missile defense, whose booster seems to have serious reliability problems, to deal with a test it probably was almost certain would never hit the United States was posturing on its own."

This guy is worried about our defense shield. He goes on to ridicule the idea. He and the chicoms are dying to know how accurate it is. LOL!

[wolfcreek]

All these countries that think We're too bogged down in I and A to be a real threat, seem to discount the fact that our Navy and AF are basically idol.

[RandyRep]

I heard a fellow on the Glenn Beck show yesterday call in and say that every time North Korea launches something, the US radar systems (and presumably the defense systems in Alaska) light up to track the NK missile.

He said the Chinese watch this with their own systems (including satellites) to determine ways to evade or neutralize them. I don't know how accurate this comment is, but Beck said he would investigate it.

If this is true, then China and NK are in cahoots, as most of us think they are.

China has another interest here - to let the USA spend a portion of our treasure on defense systems and on bases in South Korea. They figure, I think, that they can always get someone to give them the design and operational secrets when the defense systems are developed - just like they did with missile guidance systems in the Clinton years.

[garbageseeker]

This guy is worried about our defense shield. He goes on to ridicule the idea

Sounds like a liberal.

[garbageseeker]

He said the Chinese watch this with their own systems (including satellites) to determine ways to evade or neutralize them. I don't know how accurate this comment is, but Beck said he would investigate

I have heard this too.

[American Quilter]

IMO we should take out the NK government and its nuclear capability for both strategic and humanitarian reasons. It saddens me to think of the millions of starving and tortured people there, struggling from one day to the next with very little hope of survival.

[monkeywrench]

You reminded me of this thread. They never did figure it out. http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/1661514/posts

[DB]

This "analysis" seems nuts to me.

"Semi-suicidal" if NK launches a preemptive nuclear strike?

If NK were to do that, it would be over in minutes - his million man army and all.

The writer goes on about what a threat NK is to our allies in the area, and then goes on about how Bush overreacted to the threat and how that threat is no real threat yet to the US... Duh, they're our allies... A threat to our allies is a threat to ourselves. An attack on Japan is an attack on the US for all practical purposes.

Sorry, but this guy sounds like an idiot to me.

[garbageseeker]

Bump

[xjcsa]

I see the note at the bottom that this was "extracted" from a longer paper. I wonder if the long version was the same sort of disjointed rambling.

As to lighting up their missile on the ground - just keep in mind that it would mean the immediate destruction of Seoul and the deaths of a great many of its residents. North Korea has artillery - some of it possibly loaded with chemical or biological weapons - in range of the entire city, and we would not be able to take it out fast enough to save the city.

[DB]

The other side to that is, that China does not want Japan to go nuclear.

NK is pushing Japan towards that end. And I have no doubt Japan would provide a formidable deterrent.

[DB]

Yes it is sad. But many if not most are completely brainwashed towards Dear Leader. If it were otherwise Dear Leader would be Dead Leader.

[daybreakcoming]

China is also providing them with fuel and food.

Yes, by train. And NK is refusing to return the trains to the Chinese. Have to wonder why they are keeping them. Maybe for troop transport to the south?

[kinghorse]

CHINA TO USA in hushed tones: Taiwan for NK. I am sure that's what this is all about anyway.

[garbageseeker]

Maybe those trains are containing something else like weapons and spare parts for their missiles.

[pankot]

Nothing will be done by the appeasers until one of those Longdong rockets lands on their head.

[justa-hairyape]

The real threat from NK is that they are going into the export business.

Their top sellers appear to be counterfeit $100 US bills and ballistic missiles. And that is just what we know about.

When I was in London (almost 2 years ago), very few businesses were accepting or dealing with 100 Pound Bills. Big counterfeit problem there at the time. Maximum size bill anyone carried was a 20 pound note.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

" And I have no doubt Japan would provide a formidable deterrent. "
Yes, they do have the means to do it, Japan is the worlds 2nd largest economy next to the USA.

[Lazamataz]

This is absolutely true.

A nuke over Japan would plunge the world into a recession the likes of which you have never seen.

[wolfcreek]

My Daughter went to techschool at Keesler. Luckily she wasn't trained to defuse IEDs.

[glowworm]

>As to lighting up their missile on the ground - just keep in mind that it would mean the immediate destruction of Seoul and the deaths of a great many of its residents. North Korea has artillery - some of it possibly loaded with chemical or biological weapons - in range of the entire city, and we would not be able to take it out fast enough to save the city.

I think the whole "missile" strategy is an excuse to swarm over the Parallel with their MILLION person army and take the whole of SK if the US invokes "war" with a preemptive strike. Nothing else makes sense to me. I am sure China and even Russia would sit by and chuckle.. I believe that is why the multiparty talks are essential.. They are banking on the US, standing alone, being short on boots on the ground.. But whata I know?? I remember the swarms of human tidal wave that stopped conflict at the Parallel in the first place.

[monkeywrench]

If we attack them at night, we could put out both lightbulbs in one stroke. :>)

[Ancesthntr]

He said the Chinese watch this with their own systems (including satellites) to determine ways to evade or neutralize them.

2 can play at that game. I wouldn't doubt that we've done, and are doing, lots of that ourselves. It'd be interesting to see what the launch of a few armed cruise missiles from several subs at widely-spaced locations toward their launch pads during refueling would do in terms of lighting up their radars (not to mention the fireworks that'd be produced upon landing. Then we'll see what Mr. Kim Jong (Mentally) Il does.

[PsyOp]

How dare he iimply the oceans won't protect us!

Oops! wrong century.

[Bommer]

I heard a fellow on the Glenn Beck show yesterday call in and say that every time North Korea launches something, the US radar systems (and presumably the defense systems in Alaska) light up to track the NK missile.

He said the Chinese watch this with their own systems (including satellites) to determine ways to evade or neutralize them. I don't know how accurate this comment is, but Beck said he would investigate it.

Wow Glenn Beck investigating.....that almost means something, like Imus investigating or Bill O'Reilly.

BTW, it aint all that hard to nuetrilize this:

1) The Chinese could launch a pre-emptive EMP bomb into the atmosphere to knock out power. Only draw back is that they loose power too

2) or they could fire 10 missles at once with only 1 nuke in the lot and play the odds. You definately will destroy something either small or very very big.

Either way its a load of over-hyoed crap! A 3rd rate country like North Korea knows that in the end, if you show up to a gun fight with 5 swiss army knives hoping to kick ass while your loading your Mossberg shotgun, your going to go home in a body bag!

[dr_who_2]

Maybe, but China has already threatened Taiwan with missiles a number of times. The results weren't the intended ones.

[dr_who_2]

So is our food and fuel.

[Hop A Long Cassidy]

>>>All these countries that think We're too bogged down in I and A to be a real threat, seem to discount the fact that our Navy and AF are basically idle.

Their perception is everything. Even though our Navy and AF are idle, they apparently don't think so. So do the liberals in the U.S. I don't think Bush can wage a two front war. He's got to close down Iraq (perhaps Afghanistan is OK) before he can move on politically to N. Korea.

[Always Independent]

And you'll notice that the Big Bad China has never made a move on Taiwan, One, they aren't sure how we will react. Two, don't sell the Taiwanese short as many do. They have a very highly trained military and they are Very motivated. If the mainland attacked,they would quickly find the themselves being put in a defensive position. The taiwanese will be quick to take the fight to them. It will be very costly for the mainland to take on the islanders.

[garbageseeker]

You bet.

[garbageseeker]

LOL

[garbageseeker]

North Korea has artillery - some of it possibly loaded with chemical or biological weapons - in range of the entire city, and we would not be able to take it out fast enough to save the city.

They have about 12,000 pieces of artillery along the DMZ

[RightWhale]

The world economy, if there is such a thing, is hugely complex and interrelated; maybe better call it world commerce. If any part of it becomes disabled, the disruption would not be so much like puncturing a balloon or bubble as housing bubble aficionados seem to think, but like dropping a bridge in LA. Traffic would go around, but not as efficiently.

[garbageseeker]

That is why we need to stop these people and expose them for who they are.

[garbageseeker]

Excellent post!

[John Lenin]

China needs a wakeup call. It's time to slow their economy down.

[MinorityRepublican]

But didn't China had their trains stolen by thr crazy North Koreans? It was claimed to be part of "aid"

[garbageseeker]

That would be very difficult because our economy is so intertwined with their economy. Any slow down in the Chinese economy would be disasterous for our economy.

[garbageseeker]

I cannot believe anything what comes out of the Chinese or North Korean foreign ministry office. Who knows what really happened.

[John Lenin]

No it wouldn't. The trade is so one sided in China's favor that we would probably gain jobs.

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

Iran and PDRK will both be toast by 2009 so that, like Bill post-Cold War and Gulf I, Hillary has nothing to do for eight years.