Zogby International Poll of Iranians Reveals a Society in Flux

http://humintel.blogspot.com/2006/07/zogby-international-poll-of-iranians.html ^ | 13 July 2006 | Zogby

[humint]

By: The Reader's Digest Association, Inc.; Zogby International
Published: Jul 13, 2006 at 08:13

While Iran's nuclear program grabs headlines around the world, a new Reader's Digest-Zogby International survey reports that Iranians (41%) said reforming their national economy so it operates more efficiently is more important than nuclear capability. A smaller number, 27%, said the country's top priority should be to develop an arsenal of nuclear weapons, and 23% said the top goal for their government should be to expand the freedoms of its citizens.

These and other opinions were documented in a wide-ranging survey of Iranian citizens that revealed a sharp diversity of views consistent with a nation that is undergoing profound changes. The survey, which focused on a variety of subjects, including nuclear and regional politics, America, Israel and other nations, and cultural issues, included 810 Iranian adults, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The results are included in exclusive reports on Iran published in the August issue of Reader's Digest magazine. Full results can be found online at http://www.rd.com/ and http://www.zogby.com/ .

"The Zogby poll presents a fascinating glimpse into public opinion in this vitally important part of the world," said Conrad Kiechel, Editorial Director, Reader's Digest International Editions. "The evening headlines typically frame the views of world leaders, but this survey provides an illuminating picture of what citizens are saying -- and believing."

The poll revealed a country divided on many issues, although united on the role that Iran should play in the region. Iranians said they believe their country should lead the region "diplomatically and militarily" -- 56% supported this view, and only 12% said their country should not be the dominant regional power. Nearly equal percentages of respondents want Iran to become more secular and liberal (31%) as want the country to become more religious and conservative (36%).

On one question, Iranians showed almost total agreement, regardless of age or gender. When asked if the state of Israel is illegitimate and should not exist, 67% agreed and only 9% disagreed.

Despite tensions between the United States and Iran, most Iranians -- nearly two thirds -- said they don't believe that the two countries will go to war in the next decade. Iranian men were more interested than women in making the economy work better. Among men, 47% said the economy should be a top government priority, while just 33% of women agreed. The older the respondent, the less important they considered development of a nuclear arsenal.

A majority said they would be willing to suffer through a bad economy if that were the price the country had to pay to develop its nuclear program. Also, 25% said they would blame the United States if the United Nations imposed nuclear-related sanctions, although nearly 40% said they were not sure whom to blame. Only one in six would blame Iran's own government. If their country were to develop nuclear weapons, 25% said it would make the Middle East a safer place, but 35% disagreed with that statement.

When it came to their view of the United States, there was a split between the generations. Older Iranians were much more likely to admire the American people and society than younger Iranians. John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International, hypothesized that this generational split may be due in part to the lack of exposure to Americans over the past two decades.

Younger and older Iranians would favor a more conservative, religious society, while those aged 30-49 said they would favor a more liberal, secular culture. What is striking is that just 15% said Iranian culture should stay just the way it is right now. Women were more likely than men to say they wanted a more liberal, secular society. Among those Iranians with Internet access, 41% said they wanted a more religious culture, compared to 33% who said they wanted a more secular society.

"The poll illustrates the impact of 25 years of separation," said Zogby. "The attitudes of younger Iranians toward the government, people and policies of the United States have been shaped by years of isolation, largely conservative religious leadership, and anti-U.S. rhetoric. This group is consistently more negative in its attitudes towards Americans and the American government than are older Iranians. However, new technology, including satellite television and the Internet, could be used as tools that connect young Iranians with other nations in the region, and the West."

Those technologies -- Internet access and satellite TV ownership -- appeared to influence attitudes among Iranians, as did gender. Iranians with access to the Internet or satellite TV were significantly more likely than their "unconnected" compatriots to identify the United States as the country they admire the most. They were also significantly less likely to pick the U.S. government as the one they admire the least: one in three Iranians without Internet access (34%) chose the United States as least admired, compared with fewer than one in five Iranians with Internet access (18%), the poll shows.

The American government also appeared to attract more admiration from Iranians who favor a more secular or liberal direction for Iran.

Zogby International is a leading polling firm with experience in 65 countries and worldwide reach. It specializes in survey research in hard-to-reach areas, including Africa, the Middle East and China. As an industry leader, it continues to develop innovative solutions in opinion research, including its interactive polling division, using online technology to generate accurate results in many American political elections. Zogby has offices in Utica, N.Y., Washington D.C., and Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

The Reader's Digest Association, Inc. (NYSE:RDA) is a global publisher and direct marketer of products that inform, entertain and inspire people of all ages and cultures around the world. About 80 million people in more than 60 countries read Reader's Digest, the largest-circulation magazine in the world. It is published in 50 editions, and in 21 languages. The company's corporate website is http://www.rda.com/ .

[RightWhale]

If Iran tries to use the two soldiers as bargaining chip hostages there will be more than flux over there.

[KarlInOhio]

What special sauce will Zogby use for Iranian polls?

[BunnySlippers]

Bookmark

[demkicker]

It offends me when Zogby gets into his liberal/conservative prose when referring to the Middle East. My conservative counterpart in that area of the world is very likely a terrorist and Zogby knows that very well, likewise with the differences in "liberals".

[RichInOC]

Yeah, they're all fluxed up over there, aren't they?

[Mobile Vulgus]

Yeah. In flux.

From BAD to WORSE.

And I can't believe ANYONE would use that liar and poll skewer, Zogby, for ANYTHING. He is untrustworthy in the extreme and tips every poll about Muslims to make them seem like Mary Poppins and Republicans to make them seem next to Satan.

[tkathy]

All the articles about Iran wanting America to rescue them are just as phony as those who said Iraq wanted America to rescue them. They are all brainwashed muslims.

[mass55th]

In the olden days, flux was akin to diarrhea. Maybe Iran needs a good enema to truly clean itself out.

[humint]

...I can't believe ANYONE would use that liar and poll skewer, Zogby, for ANYTHING. He is untrustworthy in the extreme and tips every poll about Muslims to make them seem like Mary Poppins and Republicans to make them seem next to Satan.

POLLS AND UNCERTAINTY: The uncertainty principle itself is a branch of quantum mechanics, which states that in order to measure something, its state must be altered in order to do so- that is- it is impossible to observe something without interfering with the system. Therefore, any measurements made on something must have an uncertainty because of the changes made during the observation. It can only be said that there is a certain probability that the object under observation is indeed where you have measured it to be- which in the process, creates a probability that the object is somewhere else entirely.

One must take polls for what they're worth... The results of a poll should facilitate the start of debate, not be the end of one. To your point, I've serious doubt Zogby's reputation held sway over Iranian answers to these poll questions. Certainly no more than the Iranian government would. A government that by the way, is notorious for accusing its dissident citizenry of spying for Israeli and jailing them indefinitely. I bet that particular human rites violating policy has an effect on whether or not an average Iranian would openly speak their mind as to the legitimacy of the Israeli state.

[Comstock1]

Polling in general is fairly accurate. Most polls end up being within their margin of error when the data is tested.

HOWEVER...

Polling in a country like Iran would have to have a huge margin of error because polling is ILLEGAL. Only a stooge like Zogby would try to push a poll that not only can't be verified or corroborated, but the methodology itself is suspect.

While I have a sneaking suspicion that the poll is generally pointing in the right direction, I don't think the numbers could stand up to any type of examination.

[humint]

Polling in a country like Iran would have to have a huge margin of error because polling is ILLEGAL.

You bring up an interesting point. However it's not poll questions that are illegal, it's dissenting answers that are. Splitting hairs? Maybe...

[river rat]

The events of the past couple of weeks, should convince even the dumbest of the doubters -- the Axis of Evil is real...

The enemy is "outed"...bold, defiant and threatening ON FILM...

The time to address it, is NOW.

Semper Fi

[freedom44]

Iranians can go to jail, be tortured and murdered for particiating in polls that disagree with the government hence this polls accuracy is off the board.

[humint]

Iranians can go to jail, be tortured and murdered for particiating in polls that disagree with the government hence this polls accuracy is off the board.

Yes, I've mentioned something to that effect... twice... however, there is still a baby in this bath water.

[humint]

The results contradict assertions that younger Iranians are necessarily in love with America or more rational.

If the results with respect to that question are accurate; I estimate the discrepancy is from young Iranians regurgitating propaganda they have heard their entire life to a pollster over the phone, as opposed to meeting a citizen of the Great Satan in person. Iranians are extremely kind in person and so are Americans. As a general rule, when the two meet, smiles, hugs and handshakes commence. In person, the wall of lies built by the Iranian government is shattered and that warm fuzzy feeling is propagated by tourists, journalists and pundits who visit Iranians in their streets.

That's my impression anyway...