LIBS FEAR FALL VOTE
GRITS & TORIES EYE MONTREAL ISLAND BATTLEGROUND
PING!
Posted on 07/17/2006 10:41:56 AM PDT by GMMAC
Tories sense coming of Harper-led majority
Party members show confidence in PM
despite gripes over management style
Toronto Globe and Mail
Monday, July, 17, 2006
GLORIA GALLOWAY
OTTAWA -- Yes, they are governing in Ottawa but Conservatives across the country want more. They want a majority. And they see Stephen Harper as the man who will give it to them.
Last summer, Mr. Harper was battling image problems and the threat of mutiny. He was described as too staid, too serious and too angry to charm Canadian voters. Some members of his own party were calling for his resignation, publicly charging that his leadership would mean "we will never win the next election." What a difference a year makes.
Today, as Mr. Harper finishes meetings with his foreign counterparts at the G8 summit in Russia, party insiders say the Conservatives are more united than they have been at any time since the Mulroney years.
They gripe about the Prime Minister's management style. They continue to fear speaking publicly about the party because they know Mr. Harper takes a dim view of such openness. But even his detractors admit the guy is working out okay.
"Honestly, I haven't seen him do anything yet that I disagree with," said one long-time senior Tory who supported another candidate in the party's leadership race and who last year voiced serious reservations about Mr. Harper's prospects.
"Everything I have seen so far makes a lot of sense to me. I'm asking why didn't we do it sooner. I think even Toronto is warming up to him. It's funny how it shifted from 'scary, scary, scary' to 'he's doing a good job.' " So it would make sense that the Conservatives would be making plans for the next election and the chance to dominate a Parliament unfettered by a minority.
Certainly it has been an objective -- perhaps even the objective -- of the PM and his allies.
"We have always said it would be a three-step process and I still believe that," said Don Plett, president of the Conservative Party.
"We had the merger and we kept Paul Martin to a minority government when he was expected to have the largest majority ever. The next step is going to be to win a majority."
It doesn't surprise Mr. Plett that there has been a shift of opinion among those Tories who were the naysayers of last year. Mr. Harper has "managed to keep the entire caucus -- and not just caucus [but] party members across the country -- unified. Because we all do see that brass ring," he said.
"I have been there from day one with the Prime Minister and I have always said that he would do this and he has done it."
Certainly the stars seem to be aligning in Conservative favour. Polls suggest that Canadians are content with the way the country is being governed. Party foot soldiers, some of whom predicted last year that they could not win a seat in Quebec, are delighted with their prospects in that province. The waning fortunes of both the Bloc Québécois and Liberals have them making bold forecasts of taking as many as 30 additional Quebec seats.
Financially, the Tories have the upper hand: Recently released fundraising numbers show that the Conservatives raised $17,375,865 through donations last year. The Liberals took in just $9,121,716.
More than that, the Liberals are leaderless. Which is why some pundits suggest it is in Conservative interests to manufacture a defeat of their own government in the fall. But party insiders say that is not going to happen. Forcing an election while the Liberals are still searching for a chief would look opportunistic, they say. And many argue that no Liberal leadership candidate poses a credible threat to Mr. Harper.
So most predict that the earliest a vote will be called is next spring.
Conservative nomination rules have been posted and every riding will have a nomination meeting, Mr. Plett said. Former candidates, even those who are now sitting as MPs and cabinet ministers, will have to win the right to run for the Conservatives.
But as yet no dates have been set for having those nominations in place.
"When the director of political operations and campaign manager, together with the Prime Minister, decide that now is the time [for setting dates of nominations] then that will happen," Mr. Plett said. "So whether that is late summer, fall or winter remains to be seen."
There has been a sustained effort since the last election to prepare for the next one, a senior Conservative said. There has been much discussion about the ways of getting to a majority. And there have been cross-country tours to examine what could be done better in the next campaign.
"People are asking questions now about candidates and who might be good candidates and where might they find these candidates," he said. "That stuff is happening." But, he said, the new Liberal leader is unlikely to want to force the government's defeat until he or she has had a chance to get comfortable in the job. The Bloc is unlikely to want an election unless their popularity gets a boost. And it may not be easy for Mr. Harper to find an issue that would convince Canadians of the necessity to go to the polls.
PING!
You mean "mene, mene, tekel, fubar", don't you?
I smell possible victory...
What I wonder is how the Grits managed 9 million, with the new election rules. Do they really have that much grass roots support?
Related to this, what if we end up with another 7 dead Canadians in Lebanon. At what point does Harper suggest to Israel to take a little more care?
To answer your question, they had been in Lebanon for about 6 months. They were not simple tourists. They probably held dual-citizenship; Canadian citizens "of convenience".
Great news!
Awesome!!
Can you imagine Harper taking on Graham. I'd buy that for a dollar.
Regardless of who is brought in as the LPC leader, they are sunk IMO. Harper's genuineness, hockey dad persona and straightforward manner are winning votes.
He's spending more time here in the Atlantic provinces than any liberal leader I can remember ... and that's important for votes on the East Coast.
He is certainly paying more attention to Quebec. We saw in the last election that this is benefitting him as well. Having said that though, he may just be paying too much attention to Quebec. However, that's a whole other discussion.
Bottom line, if he sticks to the high road and the CPC keep their noses clean, I don't know how they can not get a majority.
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