U.S. General: Insurgents Planning 'All-Out Assault' on Baghdad

AP ^ | July 21 2006 | Robert H. Reid

[LS]

South, that was posivitively brilliant. Do you realize you are the FIRST to put a GENUINE number that can be actually calculated on the enemy dead????

[don-o]

He said insurgents were streaming into the capital for "an all-out assault against the Baghdad area."

As W said - Get them running - then kill them

[Southack]

Thanks Larry. But keep in mind that I have to make certain assumptions...presuming for instance that The Iraq Coalition Casualty Count is correctly counting all civilian non-combatants...that the Iraqi morgue figures are accurate as used by the UN and published by the NY Times...that the U.S. ratio of 1 killed for every 8 Americans wounded holds true for the Insurgency...that the 75.4/24.6 insurgents to civilian ratio holds true for months prior to June, etc.

So at best what I've done is a ballpark guesstimate. Ideologues could take those assumptions above and rip me to shreds if they wanted to push an agenda or bash me.

On the other hand, from what I've seen so far I can say that my guesstimate in Post #60 on Insurgent casualties is going to be reasonably close to the actual number, though a bit conservative.

[Rokke]

Wow. Nice work. But here is another factor to throw into the mix. Imagery from Fallujah before we went in indicated that most insurgents are buried very soon after they are killed in what are essentially mass graves. That is especially true for recruited foreign terrorists. The only thing they seemed better at then dying was collecting and burying their dead. Morgue's never entered the picture. So as you stated, your estimate may be very conservative. But there can be no doubt that we are putting a lot of terrorists out of our misery, and the most eager volunteers have most likely already been reduced to mulch.

[righttackle44]

"So night is no longer the cover for them it once was."

I had a video that showed our guys taking out four or five bad guys. Two of them crawled under trucks, and our small cannon blew them apart anyhow. This was all at night.

(I have not served. My tagline honors my son and my cousin.)

[Marine_Uncle]

Surely you do error on the side of conservative estimates.

[LS]

You've got freepmail.

[Wiz]

In exchange of lowering casualties of US force, and Iraqi force, the casualties of Iraqi civilians are on the rise. This is likely a trend of shift from the security force against the civilians. However, the civilian casualties is still below the peak around 900 months ago. In Baghdad, reported incidents are above 50 since Operation Lightning. I am not satisified with the effeciency of coalition force in Baghdad. It must be a bloc by bloc operation, sealing districts, concentrating force in one district at a time and raiding all buildings in a cordon and search operation, roll on to another district after every building, every inch is observed. It takes time, but the only way to wipe out the entire disease from the area. You leave one virus, and it spreads. You need to kill the entire virus.

[Wiz]

There is also a trend (my impression) with increasing use of mortars being used to cause casualties in Baghdad from outside. Portion of the rise in incidents with casualties in Baghdad may have been a result of these attacks from outside, rather than within the capitol. This indicates terrorists may be having hideout and logistic centers around Baghdad at this moment. This trend may also indicate many other things as well.

[Wiz]

In Baghdad, reported incidents are above 50 (per month) since Operation Lightning.

[capitalist229]

The Bogdad roach motel is a bargain.

At $80 billion a year it is still cost effective compared to sending anti-terrorist forces to hot spots.

BUMP