Skip to comments.(Field) Poll finds Californians' glass half full
Posted on 07/25/2006 9:24:51 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
As Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger embarks from San Diego County on a campaign bus tour this morning, he will be greeted by good news in the form of a poll showing his re-election prospects brightening.
A new statewide Field Poll shows that 45 percent of the likely voters in the Nov. 7 election would vote for the Republican incumbent and 37 percent for Democratic state Treasurer Phil Angelides. Three percent would vote for minor-party candidates and the remaining 15 percent were undecided.
Although that does not represent a statistically significant change from May, when Schwarzenegger led Angelides 46 percent to 39 percent, other indicators are moving strongly in the governor's direction.
Favorable opinions about Schwarzenegger are back in the 50-percent range for the first time since early last year, and there has been a dramatic improvement in the way voters believe things are going in the state always good news for an incumbent.
The backdrop that the governor finds himself in is a much more favorable one now than right before the primary, said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. The news coming out of Sacramento is largely positive, and so voters are giving the governor a little more credit.
An unanticipated windfall of tax receipts this spring allowed Schwarzenegger to boost spending for popular programs, particularly education, and the Legislature reached bipartisan agreement on a rare on-time budget.
For the first time since February 2005, more voters approve of the job Schwarzenegger is doing, 49 percent, than disapprove, 41 percent.
In addition, voters have a more optimistic view of the direction of the state than at any time in nearly two years.
Nearly half of the voters, 47 percent, said they believed the state was headed in the right direction, compared with 41 percent who said it was on the wrong track. That represents a sharp turnaround since May, when 57 percent said they thought California was on the wrong track and 32 percent believed it was going in the right direction.
Angelides appears to have gained little traction since defeating state Controller Steve Westly in the June Democratic primary after a bruising campaign.
Schwarzenegger enjoys 85 percent support among Republicans, despite grumbling by conservatives about his return to a bipartisan approach. Only 8 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Angelides.
Angelides has the support of 63 percent of his party with 16 percent of Democrats saying they plan to vote for Schwarzenegger. Nearly 20 percent haven't made up their minds.
There's a relatively high proportion of undecideds among Democrats, DiCamillo said. The Republicans are already there for the governor, and I guess you could expect them to remain there for the rest of the campaign.
The Angelides camp maintains there is plenty of time until the election and that President Bush's unpopularity will drag down Schwarzenegger.
It's summer. It's a wide open race, said Bob Mulholland, senior adviser to the Angelides campaign. A month ago, Schwarzenegger was at 44 percent. Schwarzenegger is still stuck in the mid 40s. And for an incumbent governor with 100 percent name ID and with Bush's troubles, this is the best year for the Democrats to defeat a one-term governor.
Matthew Dowd, senior strategist for the Schwarzenegger campaign, predicted a close race, but said Angelides had a lot of work to do.
He hasn't even shored up the Democratic base yet, Dowd said. That's a difficult spot to be in. He's got to motivate and convince his own base before he gets to reach across to independents and Republicans.
There is a profound divide between Schwarzenegger and Angelides supporters about the issues they most care most about. With undecided voters more in line with Angelides' supporters on issues, it is a dynamic that could work to the Democrat's advantage.
Among Schwarzenegger voters, 56 percent said illegal immigration was the most important issue, with 40 percent citing taxes and 30 percent citing jobs and the economy.
Among Angelides voters, 57 percent cite education as the most important issue, followed by health care at 50 percent, and environmental protection and jobs and the economy at 42 percent.
It could come down to whether the election is driven by issues or personalities, DiCamillo said.
It's a Democratic state. The issues could be on his side, DiCamillo said of Angelides.
Schwarzenegger is dominating the news. That is going to be a big problem for Angelides. How is he going to get control of the campaign agenda when the governor seems to be setting it?
The governor is conducting a two-day bus trip of Southern California that begins with a town hall-style meeting scheduled for 9:30 a.m. today at the Harry Griffen Park amphitheater in La Mesa.
Isn't the Field poll outrageously slanted to the left?
ummm,, I have heard that claim before.
Hmmm... still no mention of McClintock. Weren't they going to campaign on a "joint ticket"?
ROFL! Hey, Matt! That's funny!
Why not try the Schwarzenegger method? Abandon your base, adopt the platform of the other party, and reach across the aisle and take the votes from your opponent?
Sure, you want Arnold to trot out McClintock and run on "McClintock is conservative" to get 35% of the voters vote for him, if he is lucky, and 65% AGAINST him.
Brtilliant strategy, if you want Angelides to win.
I have the same question. Does anyone have any background on this polling organization?
Schwarzenegger, a prodigious fund-raiser, helped McClintock amass about $500,000 for his 2004 Senate race. This year, McClintock has been invited to meet-and-greets with well-heeled Schwarzenegger donors.
The governor could also help generate publicity for McClintock and earn him crossover appeal with independents and Democrats. If the governor solidly wins re-election, McClintock and other Republican candidates for statewide office could ride his coattails.
There's also a chance that opponents could try to use some of McClintock's views -- opposition to abortion, for example -- to tar Schwarzenegger as he tries to win over moderates and independents. But pro-choice Californians could always split the ticket.
Still quoting a 4 month old article, huh?
I thought this was going to be a "joint ticket"--a "joint campaign"?
Interesting! That is very telling, indeed.
Here you all said that a "joint ticket" was such a brilliant strategy. Now you are suggesting that Arnold would suffer from campaigning with McClintock. Can we assume ARnold has already abandoned Tom then? That would also explain the absence of an endorsement for Proposition 90, Eminent Domain (while endorsing the Dem backed Prop 84).
It also suggests the chances of Arnold and the CA GOP setting Tom up to win in 2010 are somewhere between slim and none.
Can't you just feel the love--the "unity"?
why do the words partisan and twit come to mind?
You are ignoring the obvious:
"There's also a chance that opponents could try to use some of McClintock's views -- opposition to abortion, for example -- to tar Schwarzenegger as he tries to win over moderates and independents. But pro-choice Californians could always split the ticket. "
I have just posted this on another thread, but it'a a good test for all those you pinged.
OK. Here is a multiple choice question for you. Do you prefer a or b? You have to pick a or b. WHICH will you pick?
a. Arnold runs around campaigning for the Republican candidates in CA, even hopeless ones, like Mountjoy, it doesn't do the Republicans any good, Arnold ends up typecasting himself and loses to Angelides.
b. Arnold runs a more moderate campaigning, being careful to not give Angelides a chance to portray him as a "dreaded right winger", Arnold does fundraising to some R. candidates, WINS the election and other Republicans win too on his coattails.
Well, let's here from everyone. Do you prefer a or b?
Neither one of them will get my vote, there isn't a whole lot of difference in them.
Both liberal democrats and the only real difference is one of them can't speak english.
And just what did Mountjoy do to you? Just can't resisit slamming conservatives eh? Unity. Yeah, right, only if it's a RINO.
b. Arnold runs a more moderate campaigning,
By proffering socialized medicine? You call that "moderate"? Need I remind you what the voters thought of HillaryCare?
I like to see Republicans run, who at least have a chance of winning.
Actually the candidates in recent years who have gotten BELOW 35% are the RINO MODERATES you love so much. Tom Campbell comes to mind. McClintock has captured the highest percentage of any losing candidate. If you'd get your single-issue RINOs to just vote the party ticket, McClintock would have won Controller twice already.
"I like to see Republicans run, who at least have a chance of winning."
The ones you support are not Republicans!
Oh, I see, we're back to "Tom can't win," only now it's "Dick can't win," the corollary being because 'moderate' Republicans like you will make sure of it. That's because you prefer leftists to conservatives. And then you have the unmitigated gall to ask, no DEMAND, that conservatives support your precious fascist?
Go ahead FO, make my day. Now that you supported Tom long enough to get Arnold nominated, you clearly intend to assure that the screw job starts again in earnest.
Your questions show that you have absolutely no faith have nothing but disdain for the Republican platform.
Here's what you are selling, FO:
Big spending, HUGE borrowing, free health clinics in schools, liberal judges, state land grabs, more gun regulation, bogus trade programs, prescription drug programs, global warming regulations, opposition to offshore drilling, envirowacko energy alternatives (as gas prices soar and blackouts are threatened).
I don't want any part of it.
Your questions show that you have absolutely no faith in conservative philosophies and have nothing but disdain for the Republican platform.
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