Posted on 07/25/2006 9:24:51 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
As Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger embarks from San Diego County on a campaign bus tour this morning, he will be greeted by good news in the form of a poll showing his re-election prospects brightening.
A new statewide Field Poll shows that 45 percent of the likely voters in the Nov. 7 election would vote for the Republican incumbent and 37 percent for Democratic state Treasurer Phil Angelides. Three percent would vote for minor-party candidates and the remaining 15 percent were undecided.
Although that does not represent a statistically significant change from May, when Schwarzenegger led Angelides 46 percent to 39 percent, other indicators are moving strongly in the governor's direction.
Favorable opinions about Schwarzenegger are back in the 50-percent range for the first time since early last year, and there has been a dramatic improvement in the way voters believe things are going in the state – always good news for an incumbent.
“The backdrop that the governor finds himself in is a much more favorable one now than right before the primary,” said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. “The news coming out of Sacramento is largely positive, and so voters are giving the governor a little more credit.”
An unanticipated windfall of tax receipts this spring allowed Schwarzenegger to boost spending for popular programs, particularly education, and the Legislature reached bipartisan agreement on a rare on-time budget.
For the first time since February 2005, more voters approve of the job Schwarzenegger is doing, 49 percent, than disapprove, 41 percent.
In addition, voters have a more optimistic view of the direction of the state than at any time in nearly two years.
Nearly half of the voters, 47 percent, said they believed the state was headed in the right direction, compared with 41 percent who said it was on the wrong track. That represents a sharp turnaround since May, when 57 percent said they thought California was on the wrong track and 32 percent believed it was going in the right direction.
Angelides appears to have gained little traction since defeating state Controller Steve Westly in the June Democratic primary after a bruising campaign.
Schwarzenegger enjoys 85 percent support among Republicans, despite grumbling by conservatives about his return to a bipartisan approach. Only 8 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Angelides.
Angelides has the support of 63 percent of his party – with 16 percent of Democrats saying they plan to vote for Schwarzenegger. Nearly 20 percent haven't made up their minds.
“There's a relatively high proportion of undecideds among Democrats,” DiCamillo said. “The Republicans are already there for the governor, and I guess you could expect them to remain there for the rest of the campaign.”
The Angelides camp maintains there is plenty of time until the election and that President Bush's unpopularity will drag down Schwarzenegger.
“It's summer. It's a wide open race,” said Bob Mulholland, senior adviser to the Angelides campaign. “A month ago, Schwarzenegger was at 44 percent. Schwarzenegger is still stuck in the mid 40s. And for an incumbent governor with 100 percent name ID and with Bush's troubles, this is the best year for the Democrats to defeat a one-term governor.”
Matthew Dowd, senior strategist for the Schwarzenegger campaign, predicted a close race, but said Angelides had a lot of work to do.
“He hasn't even shored up the Democratic base yet,” Dowd said. “That's a difficult spot to be in. He's got to motivate and convince his own base before he gets to reach across to independents and Republicans.”
There is a profound divide between Schwarzenegger and Angelides supporters about the issues they most care most about. With undecided voters more in line with Angelides' supporters on issues, it is a dynamic that could work to the Democrat's advantage.
Among Schwarzenegger voters, 56 percent said illegal immigration was the most important issue, with 40 percent citing taxes and 30 percent citing jobs and the economy.
Among Angelides voters, 57 percent cite education as the most important issue, followed by health care at 50 percent, and environmental protection and jobs and the economy at 42 percent.
It could come down to whether the election is driven by issues or personalities, DiCamillo said.
“It's a Democratic state. The issues could be on his side,” DiCamillo said of Angelides.
“Schwarzenegger is dominating the news. That is going to be a big problem for Angelides. How is he going to get control of the campaign agenda when the governor seems to be setting it?”
The governor is conducting a two-day bus trip of Southern California that begins with a town hall-style meeting scheduled for 9:30 a.m. today at the Harry Griffen Park amphitheater in La Mesa.
This really ticks me off!
Thank you for the ping.
The 'joint ticket' I see are their individual efforts to shore up winning votes, to the benefit of them both. Voters for Arnold, who aren't used to voting Republican, might then vote for Tom also, instead of Garamendi.
Until Tom publically denounces Arnold, I will assume he supports him.
Call his office and find out for yourself.
I'm waiting to hear Arnold say he supports Tom.
He has already said it 500,000 way$.
I think we can.
Strictly to bring about a little balance, I will not be voting for Arnold, just like the Primary. It will either be a write-in or left blank.
I'm seeing shades of the old "Embarrassed to be a Republican" thing.
I think they are making a BIG mistake!
Are you talking about the same "conservative" philosophy, which caused you to vote WITH the DEMS against Arnold's conservative propositions to control spending?
Yes, I am most definitely opposed to people running around claiming to be conservative, while supporting Dems and the Dem agenda.
I voted against Prop 76 which wasn't conservative at all.
It authorized more bonds and more borrowing and did NOT control spending.
Even McClintock supported 76.
McClintock was against Prop 57/58, but you sure didn't seem to care about his opinion then!
btt
Tom supported 76, yes?
"Big spending, HUGE borrowing, free health clinics in schools, liberal judges, state land grabs, more gun regulation, bogus trade programs, prescription drug programs, global warming regulations, opposition to offshore drilling, envirowacko energy alternatives (as gas prices soar and blackouts are threatened).
I don't want any part of it."
===
You sure could have fooled me, the way you are trying to get Angelides elected.
The Dems and the unions spend MILLIONS to defeat Prop. 76. You voted WITH the Dems and Unions to defeat it.
That is NOT a conservative stance.
"I will not be voting for Arnold"
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Another Angelides Supporter!
Check again, FO. They spent millions to defeat Props 74 and 75--not 76.
Sure, all the unions and Dems were actively campaigning for Prop. 76. (/sarcasm)
They spent millions to defeat ALL of Arnold's propositions, including Prop. 76, I recall lots of anti-Prop. 76 ads, and not one was paid for by conservatives. Conservatives voted FOR Prop. 76.
The fact that you didn't, shows you are supporting the Dems, and their agenda, while trying to pretend you are a conservative.
Supporting the Dem agenda and trying to get Angelides elected, are NOT what conservatives do. And this is exactly what you are doing with every single post.
Brtilliant strategy, if you want Angelides to win.
Are you really too embarrassed to support a Republican candidate on a Republican platform?
That's very sad.
Which part of "65% of CA voters are NOT Republicans" are you having problem comprehending?
Anyone running for statewide office in CA has to appeal to independents/moderates and Dems to get elected.
Appealing ONLY to Republicans will only result in DEFEAT and a Dem being elected.
But of course you know that, that's why you want Arnold to run far right, so Angelides can use that against him and get elected.
You are only using McClintock to try to divide the conservatives. McClintock IS supporting Arnold and he made that very clear many times.
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