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Don't blame warm globe on global warming
San Diego Union Tribune ^ | July 25, 2006 | Michael Stetz

Posted on 07/25/2006 3:19:19 PM PDT by bkwells

In the quaint old days, when a heat wave like the one we're experiencing hit, you didn't worry about, oh, the planet's health or Earth's ability to sustain itself.

You got a fan.

But now when temperatures soar to record-breaking highs, as they did in San Diego County on Saturday, one of the first things that comes to mind is global warming.

One can't help but wonder: Is that the cause of the sweltering heat? Are the record highs a sign that global warming is not the imagination of former Vice President Al Gore and so many nerdy scientists?

Taken by itself, the current heat wave is not out of the ordinary, said Don Whitlow, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego. It's summer. And it's hot.

“Natural cycles happen,” he said.

In El Cajon, it was 113 on Saturday, beating the day's all-time record by a whopping 12 degrees. In Escondido, where the previous record high was 96, it hit 112.

Even yesterday, when temperatures dropped a bit, the city of San Diego recorded its hottest and wettest July 24 in history. The high of 85 broke the 1959 record, and the 0.01 of an inch of rain broke the record of a trace, which last occurred in 1990.

One could look at yearly temperatures over the past 100 years and find similar variations, Whitlow said.

But climate experts say such temperature spikes may be happening more frequently and more fiercely because of the many decades we've spent burning fossil fuels.

Kerry Emanuel, a professor of meteorology in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, said global warming can't be pinned on any particular weather occurrence.

Instead, it's sort of like a smoker's chances of coming down with lung cancer, he said. “It ups the probability.”

Claudia Tebaldi, a project scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., agreed.

“These things happen. They're called extremes,” she said. “But the conditions are more conducive for them to happen more often.”

Whitlow said San Diego County's current heat wave is the result of a large high-pressure system that has stalled over the region. It will go away in a few days or so, he predicted, as soon as the high-pressure system is disrupted by another weather system.

Global warming? Chances are, that won't go away. Skeptics remain, but the scientific community is pretty much consistent in saying it's for real.

Experts like Tebaldi say Saturday's record highs may be superseded by new record highs. And sooner than in previous times.

“The odds of these kinds of events are increasing because of climate change,” she said. “Just as the base line is getting higher, the extremes are shooting up.”

The heat wave arrived when global warming was already a hot topic. Gore's book and movie, “An Inconvenient Truth” – which warns that the phenomenon is about to reach a tipping point, leaving humankind virtually helpless to stop it – has received excellent reviews and has grossed nearly $20 million nationwide.

In addition, some scientists, including Kerry Emanuel, are linking powerful storms such as Hurricane Katrina to global warming. Such monstrous weather occurrences will become more common, experts say.

The one bright note?

The unusual weather may help spur change.

Every time temperatures spike, people might begin wondering if global warming just may be the cause. And that's a good thing, experts say.

“We need to be more cognizant,” Emanuel said.

Michael Stetz: (619) 293-1720; michael.stetz@uniontrib.com


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climatechange; globalwarming; heat
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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...one of the first things that comes to mind is global warming.

Nope....

Taken by itself, the current heat wave is not out of the ordinary, said Don Whitlow, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego. It's summer. And it's hot.
“Natural cycles happen,” he said.

Whitlow said San Diego County's current heat wave is the result of a large high-pressure system that has stalled over the region.

There you have it.... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE.

1 posted on 07/25/2006 3:19:21 PM PDT by bkwells
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To: DaveLoneRanger

Ping.... this was in my local paper this morning.


2 posted on 07/25/2006 3:19:51 PM PDT by bkwells (Liberals=Hypocrites)
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To: bkwells

3 posted on 07/25/2006 3:21:59 PM PDT by do the dhue (I hope y'all will help bail me out of jail after I dot Al 'blahblahblah' Gore's eyes.)
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To: bkwells
But now when temperatures soar to record-breaking highs, as they did in San Diego County on Saturday, one of the first things that comes to mind is global warming.

No, my first thought is to get a fan. Or, turn on the AC.
4 posted on 07/25/2006 3:22:15 PM PDT by proud_yank (If you think healthcare is expensive now, wait until its free.)
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To: bkwells

5 posted on 07/25/2006 3:22:16 PM PDT by oldleft
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To: bkwells
Even though you'll see me on other threads talking about how global warming is a real concern (but not proved to be man made) tieing the temperature on a daily basis to global warming is silly. We are are talking about less than two degrees over the past century. Does it make that much difference on any given day if its 96 or 98?
6 posted on 07/25/2006 3:22:43 PM PDT by gondramB (The options on the table have been there from the beginning. Withdraw and fail or commit and succeed)
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To: bkwells

Professor Bob Carter comments on Al Gore and his hysterical fairytale titled “An Inconvenient Truth.”

“The man is an embarrassment to US science and its many fine practitioners, a lot of whom know (but feel unable to state publicly) that his propaganda crusade is mostly based on junk science,” says Carter, from the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, in Australia.

“Gore's circumstantial arguments are so weak that they are pathetic. It is simply incredible that they, and his film, are commanding public attention.”

Furthermore..........

“We've got to ride the global-warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing, in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.” - Timothy Wirth, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs in the Clinton Administration


7 posted on 07/25/2006 3:24:17 PM PDT by sergeantdave (Global warming will soon cause people to spontaneously combust while walking down the street.)
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To: gondramB

Given the fact that the other globes in our solar system appear to be warming too, I think we should be pointing fingers at the sun.


8 posted on 07/25/2006 3:26:21 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Greed is NOT a conservative ideal.)
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To: cripplecreek
>>Given the fact that the other globes in our solar system appear to be warming too, I think we should be pointing fingers at the sun.<<

There are a lot of dynamics that go into surface temperatures, especially with a biosphere to contend with. The worst possible case is that global warming will continue to rise at current levels or higher and yet not be human caused. That is the worst possibility of all.
9 posted on 07/25/2006 3:30:46 PM PDT by gondramB (The options on the table have been there from the beginning. Withdraw and fail or commit and succeed)
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To: bkwells
“An Inconvenient Truth” – which warns that the phenomenon is about to reach a tipping point, leaving humankind virtually helpless to stop it – has received excellent reviews and has grossed nearly $20 million nationwide.

Is this the purpose of this piece, to further shove Gore's narcisstic mental masturbation down our throats?? And the "good reviews" of Gore's nonsense are from fellow liberals in the left wing amen chorus mainstream media. Their zombie like approbation of Gore's film is meaningless. It's a bunch of leftists touting another leftist.

By the way, $20 million is good box office? On what planet??? Even "Little Man," "Benchwarmers" and "Basic Instince 2" made more than that.

10 posted on 07/25/2006 3:33:00 PM PDT by MikeA (Not voting out of anger in November is a vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House)
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To: bkwells

I believe that Global warming is a natural cycle and has happened before. The most reasonable "something-other-than-humans-caused" of global warming is that the sun's energy output is increasing, this would also explain Martian global warming. The martian polar caps are "melting" or "vaporizing" are not refreezing to former size. Worse, they are melting away at an alarming rate.


11 posted on 07/25/2006 3:39:19 PM PDT by FreeRep
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To: bkwells
This spring, I read that Canada had just experienced the warmest windter on record. Unfortunately, I am older than their record keeping which only extended to 1948.

I just think the idea that just because it is warmer today that it ever has been in history on this particular day is stupid. History is really such a short time.

I am 59 years of age, and without fail every July/August in the northern hemisphere it has been hot. Sometimes very hot. I remember two years in a row, the plant that I was working at had electricity taken for rolling blackouts during out fiscal year end process which happens on August 1st. This is just not a unusually phenomenon.

12 posted on 07/25/2006 3:39:35 PM PDT by w1andsodidwe (Jimmy Carter allowed radical Islam to get a foothold in Iran.)
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To: bkwells
Don't blame warm globe on global warming.

If not that, then what caused temperature changes shown in these graphs? They show that Earth is in a brief period of global warming called an interglacial. The longer time spans, the deep troughs are glacial periods. The line that runs across the graphs is the temperature in 1950 and listed as "0" on the left axis.

I'm more concerned with sustaining global warming to offset global cooling and the next ice age.

Ice Ages & Astronomical Causes
Brief Introduction to the History of Climate
by Richard A. Muller

Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle

Figure 1-1 Global warming

Figure 1-2 Climate of the last 2400 years

Figure 1-3 Climate of the last 12,000 years

Figure 1-4 Climate of the last 100,000 years

Figure 1-5 Climate for the last 420 kyr, from Vostok ice


13 posted on 07/25/2006 3:43:49 PM PDT by Zon (Honesty outlives the lie, spin and deception -- It always has -- It always will.)
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To: Howlin
“Natural cycles happen,” he said.

How are you doing? Haven't seen rain like this in over a decade. The drought is OBVIOUSLY over. Summer temps seem reasonable. Should be a great tobacco crop on the right coast...

14 posted on 07/25/2006 3:44:58 PM PDT by Libloather (I would give my left arm to be ambidextrous...)
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To: bkwells
The unusual weather may help spur change.

The kind of change the left has in mind is more envy driven taxes, regulation, and government programs.

But climate change will spur technology instead, and greatly benefit the mostly conservative voting male engineers that invent technology.

Just a few ideas:

Fog, cloud, and snow making machines that convert water into white heat management reflectors.

Fusion power.

Saltwater algae farms that absorb CO2 and emit oxygen or hydrogen fuel gas. The grown algae would be used for biodiesel and alcohol generation. Related to this, genetically engineered saltwater plants could become sea-cactuses, converting saltwater into unlimited freshwater.

15 posted on 07/25/2006 3:47:01 PM PDT by Reeses
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To: Reeses

It spurred a change with me.

I had some ice cream.

mmmmm global warming

You can talk people into anything these days. Of course, they are looking to be talked into something to worry about.


16 posted on 07/25/2006 3:49:29 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: Zon

Interesting graphs. Thanks for posting them.


17 posted on 07/25/2006 4:06:51 PM PDT by ELS (Vivat Benedictus XVI!)
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To: bkwells
I saw where a "100" year record was broken some where during the recent heat wave. Now think about it. What caused the high temp "100" years ago? Cow farts? Just remember the global warming scientist salary depends on government grants to study global warning. Now if they decide there is no global warming what happens to their grant money (pay check)?
18 posted on 07/25/2006 4:11:51 PM PDT by kempo
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To: Zon

Cool.


19 posted on 07/25/2006 4:12:17 PM PDT by Tolik
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To: bkwells

It's hot because ......... It's Summer!


20 posted on 07/25/2006 4:23:13 PM PDT by 3niner
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To: sauropod

review


21 posted on 07/25/2006 4:35:42 PM PDT by sauropod (Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys." PJO)
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To: gondramB
The worst possible case is that global warming will continue to rise at current levels or higher and yet not be human caused. That is the worst possibility of all.

No, the worst possibility is that the current interglacial period ends soon, and the next ice age starts. Believe me, if you are around when the next ice age starts marching in, you will long for the days of global warming.

I'm hoping this warming trend lasts for the remainder of my life.

22 posted on 07/25/2006 4:47:38 PM PDT by 3niner
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To: 3niner
>> No, the worst possibility is that the current interglacial period ends soon, and the next ice age starts. Believe me, if you are around when the next ice age starts marching in, you will long for the days of global warming.

I'm hoping this warming trend lasts for the remainder of my life.<<

And I suppose I can actually think of other worse cases too - but given the current data with the hockey stick increase in global temperatures, the worst explanation would be that it will continue and yet we are not causing it.
23 posted on 07/25/2006 4:53:34 PM PDT by gondramB (The options on the table have been there from the beginning. Withdraw and fail or commit and succeed)
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To: w1andsodidwe
I just think the idea that just because it is warmer today that it ever has been in history on this particular day is stupid. History is really such a short time.

You are absolutely right, of course. Canada has been both much warmer and much colder.

When it was colder, Canada was often covered with ice for tens of thousands of years at a time.

When it was much warmer, Canada was sub-tropical, perhaps even tropical.

24 posted on 07/25/2006 4:54:30 PM PDT by 3niner
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To: gondramB
And I suppose I can actually think of other worse cases too - but given the current data with the hockey stick increase in global temperatures, the worst explanation would be that it will continue and yet we are not causing it.

The "hockey stick" graph is complete nonsense. It's the kind of thing you can get when you look at a tiny slice of data. Over the last 600 million years the Earth's average temperature has fluctuated from a low of about 53 degrees (F) to a high of about 74. Currently it's about 59.

When you look at graphs covering longer and longer periods of time, starting from your "hockey stick" time period, you see all kinds of interesting patterns.

Over shorter periods of time (a few centuries) the fluctuations seem to be controlled largely by changes in the amount of heat put out by the Sun.

Over tens of thousands of years, the cycles seem to be tied more to the Earth's orbital dynamics (precession, changes in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit, etc.).

Over tens of millions of years, it seems to be continental drift that is most important. Right now, we have a continent covering the South Pole and ocean with little latitudinal circulation at the North Pole. this makes the Earth cold, and has us locked in a series of ice ages.

25 posted on 07/25/2006 5:49:00 PM PDT by 3niner
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To: 3niner

The hockey stick refers to the reent rate of increase and IF it continues it will be a problem.

The fact that it was warmer a million years ago doesn't help us much - we weren't trying to sustain a civilization then.


26 posted on 07/25/2006 6:03:17 PM PDT by gondramB (The options on the table have been there from the beginning. Withdraw and fail or commit and succeed)
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To: bkwells
"Kerry Emanuel, a professor of meteorology in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, said global warming can't be pinned on any particular weather occurrence is the source of all my funding."

"Claudia Tebaldi, a project scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., agreed."

27 posted on 07/25/2006 6:21:08 PM PDT by Boss_Jim_Gettys (Willing to compromise...NOT)
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To: gondramB; ancient_geezer
The hockey stick refers to the reent rate of increase and IF it continues it will be a problem.

This is incorrect. The Hockey Stick is a propaganda device created by Michael Mann mixing real, measured data with proxy data and some bogus data.

Do a keyword search on Mannmade. The Hockey Stick has been totally discredited.

AG, do you have anything worked up, reguarding Mann?

28 posted on 07/25/2006 7:08:48 PM PDT by PeaceBeWithYou (De Oppresso Liber! (50 million and counting in Afganistan and Iraq))
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To: PeaceBeWithYou
I concede that point - using NASA data, a hockey stick is not the shape I would say describes the data.

For one thing, it doesn't account for the flat spot between 1945 and 1976 with rising temps before and after.

29 posted on 07/25/2006 7:12:29 PM PDT by gondramB (The options on the table have been there from the beginning. Withdraw and fail or commit and succeed)
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To: 3niner
the worst possibility is that the current interglacial period ends soon, and the next ice age starts. Believe me, if you are around when the next ice age starts marching in, you will long for the days of global warming.

There aren't going to be any more ice ages or oven ages on Earth. Those only occur in nature when humans aren't around to manage the environment with technology. Earth's wild days are coming to an end.

I think conservatives need to take a new tack: embrace environmental change as an engineering problem. Suddenly conservatives stand to benefit.

The left is fascinated by global warming as a vehicle to create a world-wide monster government. In a judo-like move, we can use their envy fueled momentum to fund great R&D projects. The last time this happened was during WWII, when Americans faced a real life or death threat. We're still riding the results of that technology wave.

30 posted on 07/25/2006 7:13:31 PM PDT by Reeses
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To: gondramB
A more accurate portrayal is this image (posted above) that clearly shows that we have had temperature spikes long before mankind and SUV's were producing the so-called greenhouse gases:


31 posted on 07/25/2006 7:30:18 PM PDT by bkwells (Liberals=Hypocrites)
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To: bkwells
That's a good graph and points to yet another reason to not rush into a trillion dollar Kyoto expenditure - we've been right at these temperature levels before- and they've always dropped back.

But we need to carefully monitor the situation - we're already at a 100,000 year high and IF the current trend continues over the next few decades we could break the 400,000 year high.

But none of this proves reducing CO2 will help.
32 posted on 07/25/2006 7:36:03 PM PDT by gondramB (The options on the table have been there from the beginning. Withdraw and fail or commit and succeed)
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To: gondramB; bkwells

But we need to carefully monitor the situation - we're already at a 100,000 year high and IF the current trend continues over the next few decades we could break the 400,000 year high.

The trend into the break downward over the last 3kyrs in the 100ky cycle is of real concern for the longterm of mankind and the ecosystem in which we have prospered.

 

Figure 1-2 Climate of the last 2400 years

Figure 1-3 Climate of the last 12,000 years

 

 

Breaking upward is not even in the cards as Eath's obital inclination leaves the lower quadrants of the ecliptic frame sustaining the current interglacial period.

 

 

Spectrum of 100-kyr glacial cycle: Orbital inclination, not eccentricity
Richard A. Muller* and Gordon J. MacDonald

Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle
by Richard A. Muller

Figure 3. Variations of the inclination vector of the Earth's orbit. The inclination i is the angle between this vector and the vector of the reference frame; Omega is the azimuthal angle = the angle of the ascending node (in astronomical jargon).. In (A), (B), and (C) the measurements are made with respect to the zodiacal (or ecliptic) frame, i.e. the frame of the current orbit of the Earth. In (D), (E), and (F) the motion has been trasformed to the invariable frame, i.e. the frame of the total angular momentum of the solar system. Note that the primary period of oscillation in the zodiacal frame (A) is 70 kyr, but in the invariable plane (D) it is 100 kyr.

 

But none of this proves reducing CO2 will help.

Guaranteed removing CO2, as astrophysical clock moves forward in its inevitable dance about the solar mean plane, will be of no avail whatever in fact it could be outright counterproductive were the effect of CO2 be of any consequence at all against the major natural cycles at play.

33 posted on 07/25/2006 7:55:59 PM PDT by ancient_geezer (Don't reform it, Replace it.)
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To: bkwells


34 posted on 07/25/2006 8:05:26 PM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: ancient_geezer

>>Breaking upward is not even in the cards as Eath's obital inclination leaves the lower quadrants of the ecliptic frame sustaining the current interglacial period.<<

I sure hope you are right. Most of the MIT/CalTech types I talk to aren't so confident about that.

Frankly, all I want out of this debate (in the country, not just between Freepers) is an agreement not to cripple the economy without a great deal more human causation evidence together with a much higher level of confidence that global temperatures will continue at the current delta.

Among Freepers, my goals are higher, I think those of us in Georgia should get together, drink some beer and discuss it... :)


35 posted on 07/25/2006 8:05:37 PM PDT by gondramB (The options on the table have been there from the beginning. Withdraw and fail or commit and succeed)
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To: bkwells; texianyankee; JayB; ElkGroveDan; markman46; palmer; Bahbah; Paradox; FOG724; ...
I can't be 100% sure that warming isn't happening. Obviously, records are being broken around the world. But as Cogitator said a while ago, one day's record does not a trend make. (Never got back to you on that, Codge, but I agree with you.)

The causes are what we cannot be so sure on. Whether it be the sun, atmospheric hotspots, or the drop in piracy, there are dozens of varying factors that all come into play. There are contradictions on so many levels of the global warming debate that it is difficult to know anything for sure. Which is what others say about Kyoto; we should not spend billions on a project to fix a problem we don't know exists, especially when its own advocates acknowledge it won't solve the problem or even come close.
36 posted on 07/25/2006 8:17:55 PM PDT by DaveLoneRanger ("Good guys" aren't always "nice guys".)
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To: gondramB

Frankly, all I want out of this debate (in the country, not just between Freepers) is an agreement not to cripple the economy without a great deal more human causation evidence

That I can agree with.

together with a much higher level of confidence that global temperatures will continue at the current delta.

Judging from the geological record, staying where we have been at in the last 8kys even is unlikely in the extreme. I would say we can reasonably figure on toggling between deep glacial conditions and moderate temperatures for a few more million years if that is your delta.

 

Global Surface Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over Geologic Time 


37 posted on 07/25/2006 8:18:11 PM PDT by ancient_geezer (Don't reform it, Replace it.)
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To: ancient_geezer

My chart can beat up your chart.


38 posted on 07/25/2006 8:18:59 PM PDT by DaveLoneRanger ("Good guys" aren't always "nice guys".)
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To: DaveLoneRanger

LOL ;O)


39 posted on 07/25/2006 8:23:08 PM PDT by ancient_geezer (Don't reform it, Replace it.)
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Comment #40 Removed by Moderator

To: ancient_geezer
>>I would say we can reasonably figure on toggling between deep glacial conditions and moderate temperatures for a few more million years if that is your delta.<<

I was unclear, I meant the current first derivative with respect to time. It would not have to stay at the current rate for the last 30 years very long to break what have been some historic natural barriers.
41 posted on 07/25/2006 8:25:19 PM PDT by gondramB (“Named must your fear be before banish it you can.”)
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To: cripplecreek

What in the world has Bush done to the sun???? / bush's fault sarcasm off.


42 posted on 07/25/2006 8:29:56 PM PDT by fhlh (Polls are for Strippers.)
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To: gondramB

I was unclear, I meant the current first derivative with respect to time. It would not have to stay at the current rate for the last 30 years very long to break what have been some historic natural barriers.

The 8ky trend is currently downward. 30yrs against 8kys of tend is a pittance and one not to be ignored especially in light of the reality and inevitability of orbital mechanics, both in the shorter geological periods of 100kys of planetary mechnics, and those of intergalactic operative on the scale of 100 million years displayed in reply #37.

43 posted on 07/25/2006 8:32:26 PM PDT by ancient_geezer (Don't reform it, Replace it.)
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To: Zon
This, along with Figure 1-4, are interesting graphs:


Figure 1-5 Climate for the last 420 kyr, from Vostok ice

We seem to have gotten stuck at the upper spike. Historically, these spikes were short lived and a cooling began shortly after. In fact, the last 100,000 years or so seem to be anomalous. This one may tell a story. Then again, the "scientific community" may be misreading the data??? Or, who are you gonna believe, me or your lying ice? :^)

44 posted on 07/25/2006 8:48:11 PM PDT by ForGod'sSake (ABCNNBCBS: An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly.)
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To: gondramB
Another interesting graphic from Muller's works on the history of climate displaying a much longer time scale, albeit reversed from those above with present temperature to the left instead of the right in the charts above.

From Ice Ages & Astronomical Causes
Brief Introduction to the History of Climate
by Richard A. Muller

 

In Figure 1-6, the 10 kyr years of agriculture and civilization appear as a sudden rise in temperature barely visible squeezed against the left hand axis of the plot. The temperature of 1950 is indicated by the horizontal line. As is evident from the data, civilization was created in an unusual time.

There are several important features to notice in these data, all of which will be discussed further in the remainder of the book. For the last million years or so (the left most third of the plot) the oscillations have had a cycle of about 100 kyr (thousand years). That is, the enduring period of ice is broken, roughly every 100 kyr, by a brief interglacial. During this time, the terminations of the ice ages appear to be particularly abrupt, as you can see from the sudden jumps that took place near 0, 120, 320, 450, and 650 thousand years ago. This has led scientists to characterize the data as shaped like a "sawtooth," although the pattern is not perfectly regular.

Figure 1-6 Climate of the last 3 million years

 

As can be clearly noted, we have been on a much longer trend downward trend overall across the last 3 million years with the 100kyr cycle deepening and becoming more pronounce on the downside. Entertaining the strong concept that continuation in the established 100kyr periodicity is hardly at an end with deep glacial eras yet to come.

45 posted on 07/25/2006 8:57:57 PM PDT by ancient_geezer (Don't reform it, Replace it.)
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To: gondramB
Here in Indiana most of the record high summer temps occurred during the mid 30's, including the all time high which occurred 72 years ago yesterday. That however doesn't stop the chicken littles from coming out of their caves every time there is a heat wave. What is funny is every time we have record cold like we did during Nov-Dec a couple of years ago the best they can come up with is that there will always be the quirky anomaly.
46 posted on 07/25/2006 9:17:58 PM PDT by redangus
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To: ancient_geezer

The 8ky trend is currently downward.

The recent 2,000 years even more so of a down trend. It appears Earth is set to plunge on a down-spike of the cycle.

47 posted on 07/25/2006 10:49:04 PM PDT by Zon (Honesty outlives the lie, spin and deception -- It always has -- It always will.)
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To: ForGod'sSake

This one may tell a story.

As ancient_gezzer pointed out in post 43  the 8kyr graph shows a down trend. I add that the recent 2,000 years even more so of a down trend. Looking at Figure 1-3 (the 12,000 year graph) and Figure 1-2 (2,400 years)  it appears Earth is set to plunge on a down-spike of the cycle. From the year "0" looking right, the upper spikes are lower highs and the lower spikes are lower lows.

48 posted on 07/25/2006 11:01:14 PM PDT by Zon (Honesty outlives the lie, spin and deception -- It always has -- It always will.)
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To: Zon
...it appears Earth is set to plunge on a down-spike of the cycle.

My point being, it looks like it should have already happened based on the historical data in Figure 1-5. The moderate temperatures we currently enjoy appear to have been around a lot longer than they were during previous spikes. If figure 1-5 is to be believed, and given our present gaggle within the "scientific community"; flip a coin, the graph indicates some anomolous behaviour beginning at 75,000 - 80,000 years ago. About the time Toba exploded???

It would appear to the untrained eye, like mine, the temperature sampling becomes more frequent within the last 80,000 years or so, and even moreso during the last few thousand years. Is it a trick of the graph creator to make things appear worse than they actually are? Or is there cause for concern because we've been "stuck" at the current peak for far too long? Lacking more information regarding sampling rates and how they were applied to the graph, I submit we can't really tell.

FGS

49 posted on 07/26/2006 12:02:23 AM PDT by ForGod'sSake (ABCNNBCBS: An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly.)
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To: ForGod'sSake
Or is there cause for concern because we've been "stuck" at the current peak for far too long?

Being "stuck" has made the rise of civilization possible. Otherwise it would not have happened. What is your cause for concern. that being "stuck" might not last? If so, I agree, a new ice age would be a death sentence for billions of people.

50 posted on 07/26/2006 3:57:54 AM PDT by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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