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**vanity question**-What does mideast escalation look like? (or-How Messy Can This Get?)

Posted on 07/26/2006 6:30:02 AM PDT by InvisibleChurch

Right now it is Israel vs Hezabaloo/Syria/Iran. If Israel goes into Syria, do other countries join in? Do other Arab states (Egypt, Jordan etal) stay out or pile on Israel? Do any countries turn against Iran and Syria. Who does Russia support? Does the US commit troops?


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2006israelwar; iran; islamofascists; muhammadsminions; syria

1 posted on 07/26/2006 6:30:04 AM PDT by InvisibleChurch
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To: InvisibleChurch
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
2 posted on 07/26/2006 6:32:56 AM PDT by Sax (You Done Tore Out My Heart And Stomped That Sucker Flat)
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To: InvisibleChurch
"How Messy Can This Get?"

I'd say it has the potential of getting about this messy . . .


3 posted on 07/26/2006 6:33:31 AM PDT by guitar4jesus (Black, Conservative . . . and I vote!)
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To: Sax
Ha ha, great minds!
4 posted on 07/26/2006 6:34:10 AM PDT by guitar4jesus (Black, Conservative . . . and I vote!)
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To: InvisibleChurch
Some of us think this can perhaps spread well beyond the middle east. The Chinese are waiting to get involved with anything, and North Korea is too. Iran wants to get froggy. There is a serious potential, according to many people who are "in the know" who think this not only could be a world war, but believe it already is. If you have been watching the UN, they are wringing their hands over it, since they are impotent to do anything, and when Kofi Annan said "Israel attacked a UN post deliberately" -- I THINK it was his own way of trying to scare Israel off of fighting in Lebanon. Unfortunately, all he has done is make himself appear to be an ass, before an investigation.

I think we're going to see this get a lot worse, before it's over.
5 posted on 07/26/2006 6:34:32 AM PDT by Rick.Donaldson (Never Forget the Starvation of Terri Schiavo - Leftist Liberal Loonies murdered her.)
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To: InvisibleChurch

It can get pretty messy as long as the rest of the world chooses to sit back and gripe. That part of the world could be tamed by a total region wide war but we can't do it alone.


6 posted on 07/26/2006 6:35:27 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Everybody's entitled to my opinion.)
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To: Sax; guitar4jesus

OK, but whose nukes? Israel? Russia? China? France?


7 posted on 07/26/2006 6:44:52 AM PDT by InvisibleChurch (No.... wire .... hangers!)
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To: InvisibleChurch
If Israel goes into Syria, Iran will join in. Since they have next to no airlift/sealift capability, it'll be tough getting any troops there. Even if they had airlift/sealift capability, they would have to overfly Iraq. (Good luck ragheads. If it ain't ours, it flies, it dies.)

Or steam through the Straits of Hormuz (That large gray thing on the horizon is the USS Truman, 4 acres of sovereign US territory, manned by 5000 bad-a$$ sailors and Marines.)

8 posted on 07/26/2006 6:45:08 AM PDT by CholeraJoe (All Marines can throw a grenade. The really, really good ones can throw a slider with one.)
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To: InvisibleChurch
How messy? IMHO, high probability that Iran will strike with a nuke -- intent on making good on its promises to wipe Israel off the map -- either directly or via its proxies if this isn't reigned in. We can joke about it but this isn't something any thinking person wants to have happen.

It's very important, imho, to bring Russia into the discussion to hold them accountable for their influence and to prevent them from hiding behind the illusion of being disassociated from what's going on. In my opinion, mideast instability plays very favorably for them, and this may even be a page from their playbook, perhaps even their doing.

Bring Russia to the table. And get ready to put a few smart bombs into Iran.

I'm praying the whole thing gets diffused.

9 posted on 07/26/2006 6:45:54 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (dust off the big guns.)
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To: Rick.Donaldson
"Chinese are waiting to get involved with anything, "

Don't forget about India & Pakistan.

10 posted on 07/26/2006 6:46:06 AM PDT by guitar4jesus (Black, Conservative . . . and I vote!)
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To: InvisibleChurch
Invisible Church?

When Ishmael says to Isaac ... "Yer right .. I'm sorry ... I'm not the son of promise ... you are." ... All hostilities on planet Earth will cease.

11 posted on 07/26/2006 6:47:28 AM PDT by knarf (A place where anyone can learn anything ... especially that which promotes clear thinking.)
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To: knarf

If only that were so.....


12 posted on 07/26/2006 6:50:33 AM PDT by Vermont Lt (I am not from Vermont. I lived there for four years and that was enough.)
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To: InvisibleChurch

Israel most likely, will not respond to anything less than nuclear strikes with nukes, but if/when they get nuked, so will others in short order.

US, Russia, China, France, hell even Pakistan and India had a serious sit down about this - use nukes, destroy your country, ruin your crops for decades to come, become an international pariah, pain, starvation, sickness and dying - you lose no matter what and you're not coming back from that for multiple generations.

The difference is that these countries have secular governments, not a religious mandate to kill all non-believers. Nukes are an awfully big club that can kill an awful lot of non-believers.


13 posted on 07/26/2006 6:55:12 AM PDT by Sax (You Done Tore Out My Heart And Stomped That Sucker Flat)
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To: InvisibleChurch
Right now it is Israel vs Hezabaloo/Syria/Iran. If Israel goes into Syria, do other countries join in?

Israel would be unlikely to go into Syria unless Syria did something on the Golan Heights (which they won't).

Do other Arab states (Egypt, Jordan etal) stay out or pile on Israel?

They'll let Israel take care of business -- both Jordan and Egypt have salamikaze problems of their own, and letting Israel pound Hezbollah, Hamas, and the rest of the terrorists serves their interests.

Do any countries turn against Iran and Syria.

That's already happening. The G-8 has actually recognized the forces behind Hezbollah. I think most of the countries in the region, including Syria, would be happy to see somebody take care of Iran. I think Syria's position is probably best explained in terms of Bashir Assad being a weak leader who will do what's needed to stay in power, including being Iran's vassal.

Who does Russia support?

Russia. Which at the moment translates into letting Israel take care of business.

Does the US commit troops?

No need -- we've got Israel's back by being in Afghanistan and Iraq, not to mention being in full naval control of both the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions.

14 posted on 07/26/2006 6:56:42 AM PDT by r9etb
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To: knarf

Few observations.

China is scared out of their minds right now. Iran provides them with most of their oil and an Israeli hit on the Iranian oil fields will devastate China.

Russia is scared out of thier minds right now. Chechen rebels and the muzzies that are there can wreak havoc on Moscow and other cities.

The EU is scared out of their minds for the same two reasons above. Last thing they need is another Paris is burning moment.

While it looks bad for the US, we have had five years of getting our FBI and Intelligence services aligned to fight terrorism at home. For us it is sit back, watch the fireworks and pray that we aren't hit.

Meanwhile, everyone hates the Jews and are doing everything in their power to appease the Hezzies because they do not want to be placed on their hit list. What no one realizes is that this is a Muzzy Crusade against Judaism and Christianity. Our heads are in the sand and the left wings in the west are hoping that the crocodile eats them last.

World war? Oh yeah and it is time the west got a set and went after radical Islam. Let the Communists pick a side and have the final battle now before it is too late.


15 posted on 07/26/2006 6:57:36 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Democrats - The reason we need term limits)
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To: Sax
" Nukes are an awfully big club that can kill an awful lot of non-believers."

I'm not sure how to read this.

Belief in whom?

16 posted on 07/26/2006 6:57:46 AM PDT by knarf (A place where anyone can learn anything ... especially that which promotes clear thinking.)
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What would Gog do?

17 posted on 07/26/2006 6:57:58 AM PDT by evets (God bless president George W. Bush!)
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To: InvisibleChurch

"OK, but whose nukes? Israel? Russia? China? France?"





Yes.


18 posted on 07/26/2006 6:59:04 AM PDT by CygnusXI (Where's that dang Meteor already?)
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To: InvisibleChurch
Fly 'em if ya got 'em!

Here's what I ran up my pole 2 weeks ago, and it'll fly for the duration.


19 posted on 07/26/2006 6:59:38 AM PDT by 3_if_by_Treason (Life is a series of lessons: Sometimes you're the student, and sometimes you're the teacher.)
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To: knarf

Infidels, anyone who is not Muslim.


20 posted on 07/26/2006 7:00:22 AM PDT by Sax (You Done Tore Out My Heart And Stomped That Sucker Flat)
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To: InvisibleChurch

Great home page, BTW...


21 posted on 07/26/2006 7:01:04 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (Freedom isn't free, but the men and women of the military will pay most of your share)
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To: EQAndyBuzz
" .. it is time the west got a set and went after radical Islam. Let the Communists pick a side and have the final battle now before it is too late."

Yeah ... I like that.

22 posted on 07/26/2006 7:01:15 AM PDT by knarf (A place where anyone can learn anything ... especially that which promotes clear thinking.)
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To: knarf

And you're right, part of that thought remained in my head, and I didn't actually type it - didn't mean to confuse.


23 posted on 07/26/2006 7:02:07 AM PDT by Sax (You Done Tore Out My Heart And Stomped That Sucker Flat)
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To: COBOL2Java

Thank you.


24 posted on 07/26/2006 7:02:29 AM PDT by InvisibleChurch (No.... wire .... hangers!)
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To: EQAndyBuzz

What I am curious about is Iran was supposed to make a response on the 22nd regarding their uranium enrichment. Did I miss it or did they just do nothing?


25 posted on 07/26/2006 7:03:03 AM PDT by freebird5850
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To: Sax

I thought that was what you meant, but I could also read it as a 'final solution' sentiment ... nuke the arabs.


26 posted on 07/26/2006 7:04:07 AM PDT by knarf (A place where anyone can learn anything ... especially that which promotes clear thinking.)
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To: r9etb

Bang on the money at every point


27 posted on 07/26/2006 7:07:16 AM PDT by weegie
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To: freebird5850

August 22. I believe that has something to do with the 12th Imam.


28 posted on 07/26/2006 7:12:58 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Democrats - The reason we need term limits)
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To: Rick.Donaldson

>>>Iran wants to get froggy>>>

Iran and North Korean are both doing the 'DON'T LOOK AT THEM, LOOK AT MEEEEE!!" thing right now. Armeawhateverhisnameis said "Iran will NOT be ignored!!". That says alot.

But I don't think this will escalate into anything big. I think Isreal will bow to the US, as the US will bow the UN for a 'cease-fire' which will only allow more weapons and 'soldiers' into Lebanon for another 'skirmish'.


29 posted on 07/26/2006 7:14:25 AM PDT by sandbar
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To: InvisibleChurch
My fear is that at some point, either internal pressure (from their own leftist hand-wringers) or external (the US State Department and the Euro-weenies) will serve to badger the Israelis into calling a premature cease-fire which will leave Hezbollah in place. This will, of course, result in the Hezbollah pukes licking their wounds and re-arming. At the same time, the calls from the 'international community' for Israel to cede back to Lebanon and/or the Hamas-led PA any territory captured and used as a buffer zone.

A few years will pass, and the terrorists will start the same pattern again, this time with better weapons, maybe even nukes.

(A little tinfoilish speculation: observe that the last Israeli pullout from Lebanon was in 2000 - 6 years ago. If they're dragged into a premature ceasefire now, and things quiet down, they'll re-erupt in 2012 if the pattern holds true. And 2012 marks the 'end of days' on the Mayan calendar ...)

30 posted on 07/26/2006 7:15:22 AM PDT by bassmaner (Hey commies: I am a white male, and I am guilty of NOTHING! Sell your 'white guilt' elsewhere.)
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To: InvisibleChurch

Right now, we're cleanin' out the sewers. Next we'll sweep the streets n' wash out the gutters. Could take awhile. But when we're done, it'll be a new day with a gorgeous Sonrise.


31 posted on 07/26/2006 7:15:31 AM PDT by wizr (Live life with a Passion!)
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To: guitar4jesus
I've not forgotten India and Pakistan.

The truth is, we can see a chain of events occuring that will fall into place like dominos unless something moves to stop the first domino from falling.

A plausible scenario goes as follows. Israel goes into Syra. Syria calls for help, they will need it. Iran will send troops. Several other Arab nations will "jump on the bandwagon" and hundreds, perhaps thousands of "insurgents" will run forward.

The US, UK, Australia among a few countries, perhaps assisted by a few European nations (Germany?) will send troops.

Once the west is "engaged"... North Korea ups the ante.

Pakistan perhaps will do something about that point. Then Japan jumps on North Korea.

China, not to be outdone, sends assistance to North Korea, in the form of naval vessels. Then China moves on Taiwan.

The US is rather... stretched at this point, but we certainly make a showing. Someone lobs a nuke. Probably China, to take out one of our fleets.

It's already all-out war, but then it becomes "declared". A few more nukes get lobbed. We may lose a city or two, and China will lose a few. The middle east experiences it's version of "9/11" when several large, dirty bombs are detonated, including in Tel Aviv....



Ok, well, you get the point. That's one possible, plausible scenario. Either way, it will get worse before it is over. At some point, I wouldn't even rule out a full out land invasion of the US if we get so caught up in this that the Chinese think they can get away with it. We don't nuke ourselves, but Americans will have to be prepared to fight.

Honestly, I hope I'm way off, and probably am well beyond reality here.. but, this is certainly not out of the question. I think many, many people who are military strategists and who understand our capabilities will agree with my quick, down and dirty assessment.
32 posted on 07/26/2006 7:37:13 AM PDT by Rick.Donaldson (Never Forget the Starvation of Terri Schiavo - Leftist Liberal Loonies murdered her.)
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To: freebird5850

They asked that Hizz'balaah hit Israel. They kidnapped two men on the north site of Israel. They didn't bother to answer about the nuclear situation. They have managed to evade answering that much longer. Look those kooks are working on a nuclear weapon. If they can destroy Tel Aviv, then "they win" according to them.


33 posted on 07/26/2006 7:43:02 AM PDT by Rick.Donaldson (Never Forget the Starvation of Terri Schiavo - Leftist Liberal Loonies murdered her.)
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To: Salem

Ping for a GREAT picture to add to your FR home page and your website!!!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1672488/posts?page=19#19


34 posted on 07/26/2006 9:19:13 AM PDT by Convert from ECUSA (The Arab League jihad continues on like a fart in an elevator - FR American in Israel)
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To: InvisibleChurch

Iran and Company will be "cleansed by fire".


35 posted on 07/26/2006 9:22:26 AM PDT by rennatdm
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To: InvisibleChurch
Depends on a lot of factors.

Israel and Syria probably won't go after each other. Syria can't fight Israel conventionally, and probably doesn't want to be a parking lot. Best case this stops in a few weeks and the UN issues a few protests.

Wild cards are the Indian/Pakistan situation, and North Korea/China. While our attention is elsewhere, there have been more and more threats coming out of odd corners of the world. If, say N. Korea charges south, then we have WWIII on our hands without the troops right on hand to fight them.
36 posted on 07/26/2006 11:17:16 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: InvisibleChurch

I think that if Israel goes into Syria, China goes into Taiwan...


37 posted on 07/26/2006 11:21:09 AM PDT by ShadowAce (Linux -- The Ultimate Windows Service Pack)
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To: freebird5850

A freeper mentioned Aug 21 was delivery date from NK of a delivery system to Iran.


38 posted on 07/26/2006 11:32:33 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: 3_if_by_Treason; Convert from ECUSA
Hi, 3_if_by_Treason.

I head the Christian Supporters Of Israel List at Free Republic, as well as the America At War site, which gets some regular traffic.

Can I use this picture? Like Convert from ECUSA pointed out, it would be a good addition to my site and profile page. I want to put your screen name at the bottom, along with the URL to Free Republic, also. It's a great picture because it isn't commercial, but grass roots.

Mike ~

39 posted on 07/26/2006 12:48:40 PM PDT by Salem (FREE REPUBLIC - Fighting to win within the Arena of the War of Ideas! So get in the fight!)
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bump into the night


40 posted on 07/26/2006 6:22:59 PM PDT by InvisibleChurch (No.... wire .... hangers!)
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To: guitar4jesus; All; Peach

I have been very frightened about what can happen, not so much for me (I am in a pretty secure place), but for my family and friends, including friends that have family members in Israel.

And I do not trust the Pakistanis, who could attack India, who could counterattack.

And we are talking nuclear stuff, not missles.

And I am VERY concerned terrorists (hunkered down in every country on the globe) have been the recipients of Saddam's WMD, as well as N. Koreas, Russias.


41 posted on 07/26/2006 6:46:04 PM PDT by girlangler ((Fish fear me))
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To: girlangler

It's a dicey time, there's no doubt about it.

I'm thinking in my lifetime we're more likely to see a chemical attack than nuclear. But that's just a guess.


42 posted on 07/26/2006 6:48:32 PM PDT by Peach (Prayers for our dear friends in Israel.)
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To: Peach

Actually I -- in my uneducated guess without authority or knowledge -- believe you are right.

ANTHRAX.

It has been attempted once in the U.S. There is some reason that has never been resolved, revealed to the press and public, and the U.S. govt. STRESSED, very strongly, after 9/11 certain ways to protect yourself (duct tape come to mind?).


43 posted on 07/26/2006 7:00:43 PM PDT by girlangler ((Fish fear me))
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To: girlangler

And that anthrax was linked to the terrorists, no matter what the msm tries to tell us.

9/11 Hijacker sought treatment for red hands (anthrax).
October 11, 2001. Palm Beach Post.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/546116/posts

Tabloid Editor rented apartment to two 9/11 hijackers. The tabloid lost a worker to anthrax.
October 15, 2001. Miami Herald.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/548061/posts

Hijackers linked to anthrax.
October 15, 2001. St. Petersburg Times.
http://www.sptimes.com/News/101501/Worldandnation/Hijackers_linked_to_t.shtml

9/11 Hijackers treated for anthrax.
March 23, 2002. The New York Times.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/652000/posts

Remember Anthrax?
April 20, 2002. The Weekly Standard.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/669487/posts
9/24/01. ABC.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/531023/posts

Hijacker treated for anthrax.
May 9, 2002. The Wall Street Journal.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/682921/posts

Atta tried to buy a cropduster.
June 6, 2002. ABC.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/695924/posts

Analysis of anthrax letters.
June 19, 2002. Instapundit.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/703075/posts?page=44#44

Freeper My Identity research on anthrax letters. Post #44.
6/20/02.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/703075/posts?page=44#44

The silica used in the anthrax attacks traced to Iraq.
October 28, 2002. The Washington Post.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A28334-2002Oct27&notFound=true


44 posted on 07/26/2006 7:02:57 PM PDT by Peach (Prayers for our dear friends in Israel.)
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To: Salem
Mike

I sent you FReep Mail and yes you can use the photo any way you want anywhere you want.

Jim

45 posted on 07/26/2006 10:28:45 PM PDT by 3_if_by_Treason (Life is a series of lessons: Sometimes you're the student, and sometimes you're the teacher.)
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To: r9etb
Excellent response. Right now, I'm hearing nothing of support for Iran from the other major players in the middle east. Actually, the only water carrying for Hezbollah and Iran right now is being done by US and European media.

Everybody in the region hates Israel, but Egypt, Jordan, UAE, and Saudi Arabia do NOT want Iran dominating the region. Syria and Lebanon are not powerful enough to be anything but a vassal to Iran. Turkey, other than keeping the Kurds out, appears to be doing it's best to not have a dog in this fight.

46 posted on 07/26/2006 10:37:18 PM PDT by Richard Kimball
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